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MML Electrification: progress updates

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Kneedown

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Yes, but no other projects that I am aware of were considered to have infinite BCRs.
It is highly doubtful that the MML still does as a result of the explosion in project costs.

But the point is the MML had the best business case of all the schemes, and whether or not the case is still infinite due to rising costs, it's still proportionally a better business case than other schemes. In other words, if you can't financially justify doing the MML, you certainly can't justify any other schemes.
 
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edwin_m

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Thinking about this further, it is theoretically possible that the non-financial benefits of the MML scheme are vastly lower than those of something like the GW scheme. If increasing costs mean MML is no longer justifiable on a purely financial basis then the justification needs to start taking account of non-financial benefits (getting into BCR territory) GW could overtake it.

However I think this is fairly unlikely, as the non-financial benefits as well as the financial benefits will broadly depend on vehicle-miles converted from diesel to electric, so the two will be roughly proportional to each other.
 

NotATrainspott

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The MML electrification might be a useful test bed for my long neutral section, small battery solution to the cost problems. The only trains that will be able to use the wires initially will be those ordered specifically for the scheme, so it could be possible to design the wiring and the rolling stock specifications together to minimise costs. Unlike, say, EGIP there's no immediate possibility of other electrified services using the wires and having a problem with the longer neutral sections. If the idea is a success, then batteries could be fitted as standard to new electric stock and retrofitted to any trains which might need to use those lines. Electric freight is rare in any case and would probably be run by last-mile-capable locomotives that wouldn't get stuck in the unpowered sections.
 

asylumxl

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The MML electrification might be a useful test bed for my long neutral section, small battery solution to the cost problems. The only trains that will be able to use the wires initially will be those ordered specifically for the scheme, so it could be possible to design the wiring and the rolling stock specifications together to minimise costs. Unlike, say, EGIP there's no immediate possibility of other electrified services using the wires and having a problem with the longer neutral sections. If the idea is a success, then batteries could be fitted as standard to new electric stock and retrofitted to any trains which might need to use those lines. Electric freight is rare in any case and would probably be run by last-mile-capable locomotives that wouldn't get stuck in the unpowered sections.
What may seem like a good short term solution will almost certainly become a hindrance in the future.

That's true of any engineering project really.
 

Olaf

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The current position, which has not changed since November as far as I am aware, is that the full scheme is unfunded, and like other projects may now not be funded for completion in full in CP6, nor be implemented in full as previous envisioned.

Until clarification on availability of funding over the next 3 to 5 years has been achieved, no other arguments will count. If the Yorkshire leg of HS2 goes ahead, the case for MML electrification is further undermined in terms of funding. The MML is also now probably in the same basket as the CR2 funding. To illustrate the Governments stance, Ministers would not commit to completion of electrification beyond work in hand for Corby:

https://hansard.parliament.uk/commo...8-529FB89198C5/MidlandMainLineElectrification
 

Voglitz

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But the point is the MML had the best business case of all the schemes, and whether or not the case is still infinite due to rising costs, it's still proportionally a better business case than other schemes.

Electrification business cases aren't published.

In other words, if you can't financially justify doing the MML, you certainly can't justify any other schemes.

No way of telling. See above.
 

NotATrainspott

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What may seem like a good short term solution will almost certainly become a hindrance in the future.

That's true of any engineering project really.

That is, unless it becomes a new standard for electrification moving forward. The requirement for some alternative moving-off mechanism may end up being met almost by accident as battery technology gets so cheap and easy to integrate that it's done anyway for other reasons. For instance, the New Tube for London specification includes having enough battery power to crawl to the next station along the line.

The current position, which has not changed since November as far as I am aware, is that the full scheme is unfunded, and like other projects may now not be funded for completion in full in CP6, nor be implemented in full as previous envisioned.

Until clarification on availability of funding over the next 3 to 5 years has been achieved, no other arguments will count. If the Yorkshire leg of HS2 goes ahead, the case for MML electrification is further undermined in terms of funding. The MML is also now probably in the same basket as the CR2 funding. To illustrate the Governments stance, Ministers would not commit to completion of electrification beyond work in hand for Corby:

https://hansard.parliament.uk/commo...8-529FB89198C5/MidlandMainLineElectrification

HS2 would only open in 2033 though, leaving more than a decade before there is any alternative improvement for MML services. It'll also take on the cost of electrifying the South Yorkshire end of the line, simultaneously leaving less for the MML project to do and making its wiring more worthwhile. While I'm not saying that there is no possibility of the wiring not going ahead, I would think that if it were cancelled it would end up being un-cancelled again not long after simply because it's still one of the most useful schemes in the country. The only schemes which could really never be done are those where current and future technology (notably batteries) will be cheaper and more efficient, e.g. Windermere. Batteries will always be well out of their comfort zone when you're talking about 125mph full-length InterCity services travelling hundreds of miles.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Electrification business cases aren't published.

The BCR which matters is the one calculated by the Treasury (aided by the DfT).
NR may grind the numbers as they see them, but in the end it's the political calculation that matters.
Andrew Adonis preferred GW and NW schemes to MML in 2009.
The next major decisions will be about this time next year when the content of NR's CP6 is settled.
Hopefully, NR is working on the detailed designs and costings for the MML, taking into account all the lessons from GW and other schemes.
A scheme which linked the MML and TP schemes into Yorkshire would make a lot of sense, making a contribution to HS2 and "HS3".

There might be another choice to be made: wire the MML or upgrade the ECML wires (it's under the same NR LNE Route management)?
 

Olaf

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HS2 would only open in 2033 though, leaving more than a decade before there is any alternative improvement for MML services. .

True, but because the work can not be completed as originally planned, the MML electrification works will be in completion with other projects, both for funding and resources, which are much higher priority and are due to commence within CP6. That is in a period which appears that there will not enough to go around for even the top priorities. The expenditure already appears to have been reallocated so there will be nothing there for MML in CP6 as it stands.

Other works on the line are likely to run to completion, but the mainline MML Electrification will need to be reviewed.
 

coppercapped

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Correct budget followed by HLOS which I understood to be early June

But if I am reading the omens correctly the future HLOSs will not be prescriptive but will specify desired outcomes. So, for example, it is possible that the HLOS for the MML will require a reduction in operating costs and journey times and leave the industry to work out a way to achieve it within the limit of the Statement of Funds Available.

Equally there is likely to be a separate HLOS, or at least a separate chapter or annex, for each of Network Rail's routes.

After the Shaw Report, the reclassification of NR's debt and Network Rail's devolution - things are not going to be the same.

You read it here first!
 

GRALISTAIR

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But if I am reading the omens correctly the future HLOSs will not be prescriptive but will specify desired outcomes. So, for example, it is possible that the HLOS for the MML will require a reduction in operating costs and journey times and leave the industry to work out a way to achieve it within the limit of the Statement of Funds Available.

Equally there is likely to be a separate HLOS, or at least a separate chapter or annex, for each of Network Rail's routes.

After the Shaw Report, the reclassification of NR's debt and Network Rail's devolution - things are not going to be the same.

You read it here first!

I would be supportive of that and anyway some schemes should overlap CPs anyway. At moment if we got sparks to Nottingham and Derby in CP6 and Sheffield got put into CP7 I would not be hugely disappointed. Without going too much OT if all agreed Felixtowe to Nuneaton and Birmingham plus infill to Norwich that should go over 2 full control periods IMHO. Break it up and allow the politicians to stop pause at almost anytime.
 

Olaf

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Correct budget followed by HLOS which I understood to be early June

Not that; I was thinking of a report that's due for release, but I can not now find the date. It is specifically regarding the Electrification program.
 

snowball

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Not that; I was thinking of a report that's due for release, but I can not now find the date. It is specifically regarding the Electrification program.

The Electrification Refresh, perhaps? That was originally due last year or before, but it would have been embarrassing to publish it in the circumstances. I've no idea whether it's still due or when, or whether it's been quietly dropped.
 

Flying Phil

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I believe that piling from Corby to Kettering is due May - Sept 2017 and from Kettering to Bedford Sept - Dec 2017......ish!!
in Post #724 from Hopwood is a useful link.
 
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InTheEastMids

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I believe that piling from Corby to Kettering is due May - Sept 2017 and from Kettering to Bedford Sept - Dec 2017......ish!!
in Post #724 from Hopwood is a useful link.

I thought the ambition was for a complete 4-track electrified, 90+ mph railway from Bedford to North of Kettering. So I'd assumed it would be 4 tracking then electrification. However, this timescale, coupled with the lack of any work south of Kettering makes me think that the fast lines will be electrified before the slows are doubled and then (presumably... possibly?) electrified.

I also haven't seen anything at all about Bedford, and I previously understood that sorting out the issues from EMT southbound stoppers were a major issue that needed to be sorted out ASAP.
 

edwin_m

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I also haven't seen anything at all about Bedford, and I previously understood that sorting out the issues from EMT southbound stoppers were a major issue that needed to be sorted out ASAP.

That depends if they still stop. It was discussed on another thread recently that the doubling of Corby services might result in Bedford stops being taken out of the trains to and from Leicester and beyond. But that's a matter for the new franchise spec or maybe even for the bidders.

With appropriate upgrading the Corby trains would probably use the slow lines north of Bedford so one of the two crossover moves would no longer be needed. However, I think some of the speeds are quite low on the Wymington at present as well as the single line constraints. As long as they don't put the portals on the formation of the fourth track (like they did with the signals in the 1980s and again a few years ago on the Erewash) it shouldn't be too difficult to add another set of OLE if and when the track is reinstated.
 

InTheEastMids

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That depends if they still stop. It was discussed on another thread recently that the doubling of Corby services might result in Bedford stops being taken out of the trains to and from Leicester and beyond. But that's a matter for the new franchise spec or maybe even for the bidders.

With appropriate upgrading the Corby trains would probably use the slow lines north of Bedford so one of the two crossover moves would no longer be needed. However, I think some of the speeds are quite low on the Wymington at present as well as the single line constraints. As long as they don't put the portals on the formation of the fourth track (like they did with the signals in the 1980s and again a few years ago on the Erewash) it shouldn't be too difficult to add another set of OLE if and when the track is reinstated.

I'm sure Bedford will retain 2 EMT tph (more in the peaks) because it generates a lot of revenue. If you're proposing that the Bedford stoppers will normally be Corby services, and you haven't electrified, doubled and sped up the slow lines, then these are going to be perpetuating the current situation, whilst trying to squeeze in 4 non-stop EMT plus whatever the enhanced Thameslink service looks like, the stone traffic etc...

Or, you send the Corby electrics down the fast, and then an EMT stopper down the Wymington line (adding 10 mins from Welly to Bedford), making that even more pointless as a through Leicester to London service.

It's not the final picture I'm thinking about, more if, when and in what order the benefits will be realised. It seems obvious to sort out infrastructure *then* electrify, but this talk of piling makes me think NR are going to try doing it the other way round!
 

snowball

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I thought the ambition was for a complete 4-track electrified, 90+ mph railway from Bedford to North of Kettering. So I'd assumed it would be 4 tracking then electrification. However, this timescale, coupled with the lack of any work south of Kettering makes me think that the fast lines will be electrified before the slows are doubled and then (presumably... possibly?) electrified.

According to p. 11 of the supplement in the current (April) Modern Railways, work for the four-tracking will begin "in earnest" in July, for completion by Nov. 2018, and includes strengthening 12 structures.
 

edwin_m

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Noticed a lot of trees had been recently cut on the disused west side north of Market Harborough today, where the re-aligned route will go.
 

A0

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According to p. 11 of the supplement in the current (April) Modern Railways, work for the four-tracking will begin "in earnest" in July, for completion by Nov. 2018, and includes strengthening 12 structures.

That sounds reasonable - I don't think any passenger services are routed via the slow lines between Bedford and Kettering, so it's really a case of working around the freights which use it - and a fair number of those only use the slows for part of their journey - have seen no shortage of freights go through Wellingborough on the fasts.

It also suggests that the slow won't be electrified unless doubled.
 

edwin_m

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The xx15 from St Pancras often overtakes the xx03 to Corby between Wellingborough and Kettering, so I presume the Corby is turned onto the slow line north of Wellingborough.
 

A0

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The xx15 from St Pancras often overtakes the xx03 to Corby between Wellingborough and Kettering, so I presume the Corby is turned onto the slow line north of Wellingborough.

Correct - in my experience usually near Kettering, rather than on the cross over just north of Wellingborough station.
 
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