MML electrification aspirations and potential for journey time improvements

[Senex]

If only St Albans had been done as planned in the 1863 Act, not the altered route of 1864!

 

[AM9]

If only St Albans had been done as planned in the 1863 Act, not the altered route of 1864!

According to the then city (town) father's views, St Albans would now be a typical nondescript market town because the original alignment would have placed the station to the east of the prison so visitors would have deserted the town.

 

[jagardner1984]

Well it could be tunneled underneath the station, - that would need one hell of a business case! A surface build including the inevitable land acquisition as you suggest would probably be more expensive than that.

However, if that cracked the nut of dealing with broader MML capacity issues ... it might not be so ridiculous. Aside from the obvious crew depot issues - there is maybe a little more room at Harpenden for an extra bay ? If the turn could happen in new Platform - theoretically there seem to be about 15 mins from arrival to departure ?

 

[Bald Rick]

However, if that cracked the nut of dealing with broader MML capacity issues ..

It doesn’t.

The MML capacity issues are that there are 12, potentially 14 trains per hour on the fast lines between Radlett and West Hampstead at peak times, with 6-8 of them joining / leaving at Radlett / Harpenden and West Hampstead South / Carlton Road. Every train is on minimum headway somewhere. The slow lines have 8tph south of Radlett to West Hampstead, but with differing stopping patterns, and again every train is just about on minimum headway at some point in its journey.

The timetable works well, albeit with the judicious use of a little pathing time here and there To keep the trains on minimum headway.

Removing the conflicts through grade separation doesn’t change the fact that the trains will be on minimum headway. Some pathing time could be removed from some (but not all) services, but it’s the odd minute here and there.

If somebody wanted more trains on the MML, there’s only three possible solutions:

1) another pair of tracks south of Radlett (ish), combined with grade separation etc
2) harmonising the speed of the services, ie slow down the EMRs, or slow down some of the faster TL services and have most on the slows all running all stations (catastrophic for revenue)
3) ATO for everything to reduce running times and tighten up the headways

At some point in the future, 3) will happen.

 

[jagardner1984]

It doesn’t.

The MML capacity issues are that there are 12, potentially 14 trains per hour on the fast lines between Radlett and West Hampstead at peak times, with 6-8 of them joining / leaving at Radlett / Harpenden and West Hampstead South / Carlton Road. Every train is on minimum headway somewhere. The slow lines have 8tph south of Radlett to West Hampstead, but with differing stopping patterns, and again every train is just about on minimum headway at some point in its journey.

The timetable works well, albeit with the judicious use of a little pathing time here and there To keep the trains on minimum headway.

Removing the conflicts through grade separation doesn’t change the fact that the trains will be on minimum headway. Some pathing time could be removed from some (but not all) services, but it’s the odd minute here and there.

If somebody wanted more trains on the MML, there’s only three possible solutions:

1) another pair of tracks south of Radlett (ish), combined with grade separation etc
2) harmonising the speed of the services, ie slow down the EMRs, or slow down some of the faster TL services and have most on the slows all running all stations (catastrophic for revenue)
3) ATO for everything to reduce running times and tighten up the headways

At some point in the future, 3) will happen.

I notice the (freight ?) lines between Hendon and West Hampstead kind of area. Were those two be electrified and extended either north or south (structures issues no doubt) but could a 6 track railway there, combined with 125 running from EMR, give some possibility of overtaking the overtaking train ?

The other question I have - is I recall back in the days of the 319s, perpetual issues with capacity on TL and the need to get some stock, any stock, from anywhere, at any cost, to bolster it. People not being able to physically board trains, let alone sit on them. However I note this morning for example, there were 14 southbound departures from St Albans just between 0730 and 0830, . Obviously many of them will be slows which will be lightly loaded, but genuine question, I've not travelled on them in years, in these Post COVID WFH times, are these entirely needed ? That's a capacity (based on 50/50 8 car and 12 car) of over 20000 into London, just on Thameslink (excluding EMR), just in one hour (not just from SAC of course). With 125mph EMU running on the MML as highlighted above, and with better acceleration of electric trains, would a more effective use of one or two of these paths be to remove one or two of the thameslink fast or semi fast services and run some which run Bedford, Luton (/alternating Airport), SAC and St Pancras High Level only, as essentially queue buster trains, leaving Thameslink services to pick up more of the local / short distance work. Because this would surely remove the bottleneck of some of those Thameslink fasts needing to get back on the Slows around West Hampstead / Carlton Road ?

Realtime Trains | Departures from St Albans between 0730 and 0830 on 29/06/2023

Train information at St Albans between 0730 and 0830 on 29/06/2023. From Realtime Trains, an independent source of train running info for Great Britain.

www.realtimetrains.co.uk

 

[Bald Rick]

Were those two be electrified and extended either north or south (structures issues no doubt) but could a 6 track railway there, combined with 125 running from EMR, give some possibility of overtaking the overtaking train ?

Extending the Hendons north is of course possible, but very, very expensive. The line is bang up against the M1 to the east and residential property to the west for much of the way, and there’s the small matter of dpgetting under the M1 and the Elstree tunnels to deal with.

Then theres the issue of overtaking. A train at 125 overtaking a train at 100 needs 42 miles of “dynamic loop” to be able to overtake on 2.5 minute minimum headways assuming absolutely perfect timing.

However I note this morning for example, there were 14 southbound departures from St Albans just between 0730 and 0830, . Obviously many of them will be slows which will be lightly loaded, but genuine question, I've not travelled on them in years, in these Post COVID WFH times, are these entirely needed ?

Oh yes they’re needed. Pre Covid there were 16 departures, 8 fast x 12 car, and 8 slow / semi x 8 car.

The slow / semi is the same now - and they load reasonably well from St Albans. Standing only from Elstree, typically.

The fasts are now 4 x 12 and 2 x 8, so a 1/3rd reduction in capacity from 96 to 64 coaches. Zero chance of a seat Tuesday to Thursday, and usually around 50 people standing per coach (Some passengers stand from Luton). Mondays is a bit easier, and Fridays a seat is guaranteed.

Any cancellation means people are left behind, either st St Albans or south of Mill Hill on the stoppers.

 

[jagardner1984]

That’s really interesting and good to remind ourselves that whilst there can be a lot of scepticism of “is that really necessary” about one idea or another - the Thameslink 2000 programme as it once was known stressed the need for capacity and indeed - 25 years later and global pandemics aside - that prediction was entirely correct, and the 8tph - 4 fast 4 slow - a mix of 4 and 8 car - would be entirely overwhelmed now.

Having searched a little more - I can see Govia generally is at 71% of pre pandemic - which would tally with what you’ve said of leaving people behind on 2/3rd capacity. I also note both Southeastern and South Western are further behind the curve - so it’s perhaps a logical geographical conclusion that perhaps Southern is further behind than Thameslink north, which may skew the figures further. I’m not sure if they are available seperately by route.

It all rather begs the question this thread started with - which is whilst HS2 May keep the wolf from the door at Euston for another decade or three - with ever more housing due to be built in the south east and roads also nearing capacity - where are the parallel solutions to increase speeds and therefore capacity on the MML and ECML.

If for example Thameslink 2000 growth is replicated in the next 25 years on the MML - where next ?

 

[Bald Rick]

If for example Thameslink 2000 growth is replicated in the next 25 years on the MML - where next ?

Don’t forget that the MML capacity has also been increased very recently through the addition of the Corby services, this has actually taken the load off the TL fasts a fair bit.

In the longer term, it’s more 12 car services, shifting demand to quieter times s(off peak and Fridays!) and stop house building. Notwithstanding St Albans’ draft local plan (which is frankly embarrassing for them), it’s fairly clear to me that population growth in this country is going to come to a shuddering halt in the fairly near future, and with it the need to cover the countryside in yet more homes.

 

[jagardner1984]

Surely one of the only ways of solving the housing crisis and attainability of housing for young people will be to either build new towns or extend existing ones ?

Bearing in mind that in considerable areas of St Albans - it is straightforward to spend a million quid on a 3 bed semi on a fairly “standard” 50s housing estate. Ie the Norm, not the exception.

The issue I observe is that whilst it seems perfectly possible to build more mansions with underground swimming pools, and an “orangery” on land that could easily house 10 families, building high or even medium density housing within walking distance of schools, stations and services, seems to be somewhat beyond the wit of the great minds of St Albans District Council.

 

[Bald Rick]

The issue I observe is that whilst it seems perfectly possible to build more mansions with underground swimming pools, and an “orangery” on land that could easily house 10 families, building high or even medium density housing within walking distance of schools, stations and services, seems to be somewhat beyond the wit of the great minds of St Albans District Council.

I think that’s unfair - there have been several high density developments in the last few years within an 8 minute walk of the station.

 

[jagardner1984]

I think that’s unfair - there have been several high density developments in the last few years within an 8 minute walk of the station.

Perhaps - but I think its fair to say that some of the "protecting the countryside" that are in local papers etc are much more along the lines of "you can live over there in a converted office, I'll develop my orangery and swimming pool in the garden.

This one being a particular belter where there is now a crater where a home used to be.

Portal360 - Search applications

planningapplications.stalbans.gov.uk

That said, I noticed the former Police Station has been redeveloped (I remember years ago that building was voted one of the most unattractive buildings in the country !) with some flats - but there seems to be (Not just in St Albans) a realigning post COVID, with a lot of vacant office space, and a desperate need for homes - perhaps the time ahead will see more people living in the centre and walking to the station, which, IMHO, would be a very good thing.

 

[Verulamius]

That said, I noticed the former Police Station has been redeveloped (I remember years ago that building was voted one of the most unattractive buildings in the country !) with some flats - but there seems to be (Not just in St Albans) a realigning post COVID, with a lot of vacant office space, and a desperate need for homes - perhaps the time ahead will see more people living in the centre and walking to the station, which, IMHO, would be a very good thing.

Over the past 10 years a significant amount of office space has been converted into flats in St Albans (eg Ziggurat House on Grosvenor Road) close by the station. This was achieved under the relaxing on planning rules for office conversations. Indeed prior to COVID there was concern that too much office space had been converted.

 

[Bald Rick]

This one being a particular belter where there is now a crater where a home used to be.

That’s not really the best example - that road is renowned as being the most expensive piece of real estate in the city. There’s always at least three properties on that road being completely rebuilt - theres a house down there in it’s third year of construction, must be at least 10000sqft, that will be 8 figures If it lands on the market.

In the last decade or so there’s been the redevlopment of the old station car park (400+ homes) two office buildings the other side of the railway, the oaklands college city campus, the police station site, plus two big greenfield developments to the east.

 

[jagardner1984]

That’s not really the best example - that road is renowned as being the most expensive piece of real estate in the city. There’s always at least three properties on that road being completely rebuilt - theres a house down there in it’s third year of construction, must be at least 10000sqft, that will be 8 figures If it lands on the market.

In the last decade or so there’s been the redevlopment of the old station car park (400+ homes) two office buildings the other side of the railway, the oaklands college city campus, the police station site, plus two big greenfield developments to the east.

Well indeed - and getting rather off topic (my fault) but there is a generation growing up for whom home ownership (or even rental in some cases) feels like something that happens for other people. In that context, the good left winger in me finds homes of this scale, and there are many other "Luxury villas" to be found in this area, within walking distance of the City Station, to be rather offensive when several families could be very comfortably housed on the same land.

The broader point being (which is on topic I promise) - that as office space is converted for residential - and there appears to be less and less industrial activity in the city (and several other places on this route, for example housing going on to the Vauxhall site in Luton) - there is more and more demand for travel on Thameslink, and it is hard to see how this will be continuously absorbed into the existing railway.

Getting further back on topic - has there ever been discussion of "Thameslink 2" which would give another North / South route to relieve the pressure on London Termini and the approaches to them ? For example to resolve the issue of the overtaking trains from Radlett to West Hampstead. A Crossrail style railway that would take trains off MML, ECML, WCML, through a tunnelled core and back out in the Waterloo / Victoria / Charing Cross area and onto main lines there - thus relieving capacity in a number of termini simultaneously (as Thameslink originally did).

If the trends continue, it's hard to see what else can be squeezed into the same four track railway (problem repeated in a number of other places too).

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

The Radlett Strategic Rail Freight Interchange one wouldn't work as:
it is necessary for up and down Thameslink fasts to keep clear of the slows at St Albans where not only would the platforms be overcrowded in the peaks, - the recent addition of the second footbridge was needed to distruibute the crowds onto and off of the platforms more effectively.
the turning back of Metro services via the centre siding every 15 minutes consumes a large part of platform occupancy time.
That is why over recent years, the movements using the existing Radlett Junction F>S and S>F crossover ladders have largely been superceded by the use of the crossover ladder at Harpenden Junction.

SEGRO the Radlett SFI developers are starting work on the scheme shortly

Works are expected to start on site in Summer 2023 with the initial focus of this multi-year investment programme focussed on creating the rail connection and preparing the site for development.

segro-completes-120-million-land-acquisition-to-pave-the-way-for-a-new-rail-freight-terminal-and-logistics-scheme-at-radlett-hertfordshire

Presumably access will be constrained to late evening overnights?

 

[AM9]

SEGRO the Radlett SFI developers are starting work on the scheme shortly



segro-completes-120-million-land-acquisition-to-pave-the-way-for-a-new-rail-freight-terminal-and-logistics-scheme-at-radlett-hertfordshire

Presumably access will be constrained to late evening overnights?

That's the impression that they want to create. But the planning permission allows road to road transfer if for any reason rail is unavailable, yuo know how it will work, just like the water companies permission do dump raw sewage into rivers, - they will only do it when absolutely necessary.
Then the A414 will be overloaded with up to 1000 HGV journeys per day, so how green (or even strategic) is that.

 

[Nicholas Lewis]

That's the impression that they want to create. But the planning permission allows road to road transfer if for any reason rail is unavailable, yuo know how it will work, just like the water companies permission do dump raw sewage into rivers, - they will only do it when absolutely necessary.
Then the A414 will be overloaded with up to 1000 HGV journeys per day, so how green (or even strategic) is that.

Was going to make that observation myself but re read the press release and decided against it but suspect you will be correct.

 

[HSTEd]

In the longer term, it’s more 12 car services, shifting demand to quieter times s(off peak and Fridays!) and stop house building. Notwithstanding St Albans’ draft local plan (which is frankly embarrassing for them), it’s fairly clear to me that population growth in this country is going to come to a shuddering halt in the fairly near future, and with it the need to cover the countryside in yet more homes.

The ONS is of the opinion that population growth in ENgland will continue until at least 2045, and growth in number of desire households will continue for years beyond that.

So I wouldn't count on that to remove the need for additional house construction any time soon - given that we are already 10-20 years behind in house consturction.


The reality is we need a Midlands Shinkansen to de-load the legacy railway in this area.

 

[YourMum666]

Will there be a Leicester semi fast, when the wires reach Leicester with EMR Connect, Like a St Pancras - Luton - Bedford - Wellingborough - Kettering - Market Harboro- Leicester connect ?

 

[AM9]

Will there be a Leicester semi fast, when the wires reach Leicester with EMR Connect, Like a St Pancras - Luton - Bedford - Wellingborough - Kettering - Market Harboro- Leicester connect ?

I would imagine it likely as there's no real need for those stations to have full IC style trains, especially with the need for shorter dwells that 1/3, 2/3 doored stock brings.

 

[Bald Rick]

Will there be a Leicester semi fast, when the wires reach Leicester with EMR Connect, Like a St Pancras - Luton - Bedford - Wellingborough - Kettering - Market Harboro- Leicester connect ?

There’s no talk about it.

The only way to do it without causing mayhem would be to have the Corby trains split/join at Kettering.

 

[edwin_m]

There’s no talk about it.

The only way to do it without causing mayhem would be to have the Corby trains split/join at Kettering.

Indeed. Any more than the 6TPH EMR runs at present would involve reducing Thameslink service, which carries far more people, and might also run into the limitation of only four platforms at St Pancras. Extending Thameslink northwards would also put more people onto those services unless they replaced the Connects (and 700s are even less suitable for that length of journey than 360s are). You need at least 4TPH of fairly fast trains to provide adequate frequency for Derby, Nottingham and Sheffield. So the future MML service is going to look pretty much like the current one for some years yet.

 

[ChiefPlanner]

I agree we've had this discussion before and there's a lot of skepticism on this forum. Nevertheless, the project seems to be continuing.

I believe the St Albans turnback is still not track circuited so trains have to crawl in on a subsidiary aspect. Providing train detection and a main signalled route might be a relatively low-cost capacity improvement.

Enjoyable and well argued thread.

After years of "prodding" - the turnback siding is now track circuited. Even the local St Albans "newspaper" is now on the benefits for the ECML for the 700's being fitted for the "digital" railway - but a simple scheme such as this would have been of value since 1978. .........little projects are just not exciting enough.

One thing we looked at years ago was higher line speeds on the slow lines around Silkstream Junction , - not achievable apparently.

 

[AM9]

Enjoyable and well argued thread.

After years of "prodding" - the turnback siding is now track circuited. Even the local St Albans "newspaper" is now on the benefits for the ECML for the 700's being fitted for the "digital" railway - but a simple scheme such as this would have been of value since 1978. .........little projects are just not exciting enough.

One thing we looked at years ago was higher line speeds on the slow lines around Silkstream Junction , - not achievable apparently.

In the class 700s, we now have a full fleet of trains that have some of highest rates of accleration and a 100mph top speed, (providing the future demands on the OLE are met). So are there any other slow bits that can be eased to raise the route capacity, - maybe extend ETCS from the core to (say) Cricklewood to raise the speeds from Dock Junction to West Hampstead, currently labouring under multiple short fixed blocks. Would the class 810s come with ETCS? If so it would be worth adding it to the 360s as well.