Missile Strikes on Syria

[DynamicSpirit]

Well that was a quick response to the Syrian chemical weapons attack on Khan

The US has carried out a missile attack against an air base in Syria in response to a suspected chemical weapons attack on a rebel-held town.

The Pentagon said 59 Tomahawk cruise missiles were fired at 04:40 Syrian time (01:40 GMT) from destroyers in the eastern Mediterranean.

In a televised address, President Donald Trump said the base was the launch point for the chemical attack.

He called on "all civilised nations" to help end the conflict in Syria.

Source

 

[najaB]

Let's see how this plays in downtown Moscow...

 

[Butts]

Let's see how this plays in downtown Moscow...

With their antics in Crimea and the Ukraine they would do well to mute any protests.

 

[AlterEgo]

With their antics in Crimea and the Ukraine they would do well to mute any protests.

Problem is, we don't have a comeback to that, as the Russian explanation of "the people there wish to be Russian" is the same reason we give for keeping Gibraltar and the Falklands.

 

[Butts]

Problem is, we don't have a comeback to that, as the Russian explanation of "the people there wish to be Russian" is the same reason we give for keeping Gibraltar and the Falklands.

I believe in the case of both Gibraltar and the Falklands this was backed up by the residents via a free and fair ballot.

 

[DynamicSpirit]

I have to say, almost everything else Trump has said or done as US President has appalled me. But on this occasion, my immediate reaction was something like, at last someone in the West is prepared to stand up to the Syrian regime and actually do something to help prevent more atrocities.

I don't know how this will all play out in the end, but destroying part of the airbase from which it's believed the chemical weapons were launched does seem an appropriate response to Assad's chemical weapons attack.

 

[AlterEgo]

I believe in the case of both Gibraltar and the Falklands this was backed up by the residents via a free and fair ballot.

There's not much doubt among many western observers that Crimea's inhabitants prefer to be ruled by Russia.

That's why western outrage over Crimea is almost invisible.

 

[najaB]

There's not much doubt among many western observers that Crimea's inhabitants prefer to be ruled by Russia.

I wouldn't go as far as 'little doubt' but it is certainly believable. The actions in eastern Ukraine are less justifiable though.

 

[najaB]

With their antics in Crimea and the Ukraine they would do well to mute any protests.

I'm being a 'snowflake liberal', I know, but calling it 'the Ukraine' is being unintentionally pro-Russian. The name of the country is Ukraine, 'the Ukraine' is used by Russians to refer to it as a province of Russia - in the same way as we speak of 'the Midlands'.

 

[Tetchytyke]

There's not much doubt among many western observers that Crimea's inhabitants prefer to be ruled by Russia.

That's why western outrage over Crimea is almost invisible.

Crimea, probably, although expelling all pro-Ukraine people from the region certainly helps with that sort of thing.

Eastern Ukraine is much less clear-cut.

As for the murder of 298 people on a civilian airliner, the sooner that is recognised as a Russian war crime the better.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

Let's see how this plays in downtown Moscow...

I wonder how Pyongyang would view the matter.

 

[Tetchytyke]

I don't know how this will all play out in the end, but destroying part of the airbase from which it's believed the chemical weapons were launched does seem an appropriate response to Assad's chemical weapons attack.

I think if there were a simple solution it would have been found by now.

But Syria has been the problem for a very long time. I still think they did Lockerbie, as do many others (including the late Paul Foot), and Assad and his father have been a very destabilising influence across that part of the Middle East for too long. But they supported Bush Snr in the first Iraq War, so we can ignore their human rights abuses. See Saudi Arabia in Yemen for further details.

It's interesting that the US have done this now though. I wonder what the end game is. It's not as though Trump's administration gave a toss two days ago, and Assad has been gassing his own people for at least the last five years. His father was even worse. I wonder if it's someone else within the administration putting Trump down or whether it is Trump trying to deflect attention away from his links right to the doors of the Kremlin.

 

[najaB]

I wonder how Pyongyang would view the matter.

They're less of an immediate concern, unless they have military personnel in the area?

 

[southern442]

Let's see how this plays in downtown Moscow...

I read that the US notified Russia that this step was being taken and it was made sure that no Russian bases were hit. That being said this isn't going to make their jobs any easier when they meet for the first time.

 

[najaB]

I read that the US notified Russia that this step was being taken and it was made sure that no Russian bases were hit. That being said this isn't going to make their jobs any easier when they meet for the first time.

While they were informed, the Russian position is that the strikes were a violation of international law.

Which is a pretty amazing position for Putin to be taking.

 

[southern442]

While they were informed, the Russian position is that the strikes were a violation of international law.

Which is a pretty amazing position for Putin to be taking.

Several reports from BBC suggest that Russia has been rather calm, they aren't going to escalate military action in Syria or fire back. I think since pretty much everyone is giving Trump a pat on the back, there's not a lot they can do right now.

 

[Darandio]

Several reports from BBC suggest that Russia has been rather calm, they aren't going to escalate military action in Syria or fire back. I think since pretty much everyone is giving Trump a pat on the back, there's not a lot they can do right now.

It's nothing new, it's the Russians, it's all about saving face.

They couldn't condemn Assad for the attack, they would lose face with their ally and also lose face on the world front as everyone would say 'we told you so'.

Now we should expect any Nato resolution to be initially rejected by Russia. Tillerson will then still visit Moscow next week as planned and a new resolution will be mapped out and forwarded as though the Russians have drafted it, just like before.

 

[southern442]

It's nothing new, it's the Russians, it's all about saving face.

They couldn't condemn Assad for the attack, they would lose face with their ally and also lose face on the world front as everyone would say 'we told you so'.

Now we should expect any Nato resolution to be initially rejected by Russia. Tillerson will then still visit Moscow next week as planned and a new resolution will be mapped out and forwarded as though the Russians have drafted it, just like before.

This is what I was thinking. Not an awful lot will have changed. Just about restoring the balance of power.

 

[Tetchytyke]

While they were informed, the Russian position is that the strikes were a violation of international law.

Which is a pretty amazing position for Putin to be taking.

Russian military were told through the processes put in place to ensure that there were no attacks on Russian, Turkish or US targets in error. No doubt Assad was immediately told by the Russians, and intelligence say that the senior people on the base were moved to safety before the attack.

It's all just a show of power. The US show Assad he's found the boundary without really hurting him or unseating him and Russia get to publicly back him whilst putting pressure on him privately.

 

[HSTEd]

Pretty sure that is proof that subsonic non-stealth cruise missiles are of little use against a functional high-standard air defence system.

It appears that only something like 23 of the 59 missiles expended actually struck the target area. There would be a few mechanical failures but I have to assume the majority were claimed by Syrian Air Defence.
Which will soon be strengthened with even better RUssian hardware.

 

[Darandio]

Pretty sure that is proof that subsonic non-stealth cruise missiles are of little use against a functional high-standard air defence system.

It appears that only something like 23 of the 59 missiles expended actually struck the target area. There would be a few mechanical failures but I have to assume the majority were claimed by Syrian Air Defence.
Which will soon be strengthened with even better RUssian hardware.

So they say.

They can pull any figure out of the air, the same has been done for those killed in the strikes with different figures from different sources. There are even new figures now coming out about civilian casulaties that weren't mentioned initially, in fact they were only mentioned once international reaction for the strikes (pretty much total support) had been gauged.

Maybe i'm too cynical, but I'd take any figures with a pinch of salt, from either side.

 

[70014IronDuke]

Crimea, probably, although expelling all pro-Ukraine people from the region certainly helps with that sort of thing.

Eastern Ukraine is much less clear-cut.

As for the murder of 298 people on a civilian airliner, the sooner that is recognised as a Russian war crime the better.

100% agree. And there is only one man responsible, regardless of who actually pressed the buttons.

If FIFA were anything other than a money-conscious mafia gang, they would have immediately cancelled the Russian World Cup for that act alone.

Russia is a giant tragedy: the leaders hoodwink the ordinary people - who are decent enough, but always end up suffering badly, and causing others to suffer.

 

[Jonny]

That Assad is far from ideal is one thing, unfortunately in at least the short-to-medium term I cannot see an alternative head of State that will not destabilise the entire region.

If and only if the chemical weapons as alleged came from the airbase in question, then it is justified as a one-off. However, it is only acceptable on the USA's part as a one off. I are say that had the other major party candidate won, we would now be in World War Three. That's still a risk and that is why this should be the limit of the USA's intervention.
I've heard discussion on a major credible news channel that Russia are avoiding a response because the dare not (at least openly) criticise Assad either.

 

[najaB]

I are say that had the other major party candidate won, we would now be in World War Three.

I doubt it. A Clinton administration wouldn't have made the statements that emboldened al Assad to use chemical weapons in the first place.

 

[Busaholic]

I have to say, almost everything else Trump has said or done as US President has appalled me. But on this occasion, my immediate reaction was something like, at last someone in the West is prepared to stand up to the Syrian regime and actually do something to help prevent more atrocities.

I don't know how this will all play out in the end, but destroying part of the airbase from which it's believed the chemical weapons were launched does seem an appropriate response to Assad's chemical weapons attack.

If (and it's a big if) this action really does dissuade Assad from unleashing more chemical weapons against his own population, and doesn't lead to retaliation of some kind from Russia, then maybe Trump, perhaps inadvertently, has done something right, albeit his motivation is probably less about the suffering of the gassed Syrians than comparing his own macho personality to the wimpish Obama. For the sake of doubt, I'll emphasise that the latter bit is how I imagine he'll present the action to the American people, rather than my own view of Obama.

 

[RichmondCommu]

Pretty sure that is proof that subsonic non-stealth cruise missiles are of little use against a functional high-standard air defence system.

It appears that only something like 23 of the 59 missiles expended actually struck the target area. There would be a few mechanical failures but I have to assume the majority were claimed by Syrian Air Defence.
Which will soon be strengthened with even better RUssian hardware.

The Russians have suggested in the past that they have supplied Syria with their latest air defence systems. If 23 missiles got through that would suggest to me that what the Russians have is not particularly effective against cruise missiles.

 

[muz379]

It's interesting that the US have done this now though. I wonder what the end game is. It's not as though Trump's administration gave a toss two days ago, and Assad has been gassing his own people for at least the last five years. His father was even worse. I wonder if it's someone else within the administration putting Trump down or whether it is Trump trying to deflect attention away from his links right to the doors of the Kremlin.

This is trump . Do we really think he has an end game or has just given an emotive response to seeing the videos of victims of the gas attack . And is now going to have to give deeper consideration as to how to proceed in managing the syrian conflict ?

I dont know given the implications of US military action against Assad that this could be an attempt to draw attention away from the current suspicion that the Kremlin was meddling with the 2016 US election .

I personally suspect that this strike will be a one off and Russia will behind closed doors remind Assad that whilst they are allies Russia is not going to risk entering a war with the west so he(Assad) needs to can his use of chemical weapons .

 

[najaB]

Just a thought. Given how close Trump appears to be to Putin and that Putin controls Assad, is it possible that the tail is wagging the dog?

Perhaps Assad was instructed to use the chemical weapons so that Trump had a pretense for an attack on a largely-empty air base?

I don't think Trump and his team are smart enough to pull something like this off, but I can believe they are dumb enough to act a role in Putin's drama.

 

[ainsworth74]

The Russians have suggested in the past that they have supplied Syria with their latest air defence systems. If 23 missiles got through that would suggest to me that what the Russians have is not particularly effective against cruise missiles.

Hmm I'm not sure there's enough information to make that judgement. For one do we know if those systems were even in the area at the time of the strike? Then I would question who was operating those systems. If Syrian personnel the likelihood is that no matter how technically capable the system is it probably isn't going to be used to best of its capabilities. Then there is a question of readiness to consider. Was the system manned and expecting an attack (particularly an attack from the Mediterranean) or was it on standby and taken by surprise? I would also question just how much of a true integrated air defence system Syria still has at this point. Does it still have a true network of radar systems along with with missile/gun systems with good control and direction?

I don't think we can point to this attack and say with any real certainty that Russian air defences are ineffective against cruise missiles.

 

[najaB]

Just a thought. Given how close Drumpf appears to be to Putin and that Putin controls Assad, is it possible that the tail is wagging the dog?

Hmm... I assure you I hadn't seen this video before posting the above:

[youtube]-vNb4pfaQjI[/youtube]