Midland Main Line project in jeopardy?

[HSTEd]

The Guardian has published an article which claims that the MML upgrade between Sheffield and London is likely to be axed because Network Rail has enormously blown its budget.

Despite political and regulatory pressure to cut costs, spending in many areas has increased, leaving other schemes in the firing line. The electrification of the Midland mainline – described by Network Rail as “critical to delivering a reliable and sustainable railway and tackling overcrowding” on the line from London to Sheffield – could now be axed.

Anyone got any information about this? Is it just the Granuiad speculating again?

 

[RichmondCommu]

Given that the project is well underway it would seem to be a rather strange decision. I know that costs have over run given the need to upgrade the wiring between Bedford and London to allow trains to run at 125mph but I would have thought it would make sense to shelve projects that are yet to get started.

 

[ScotGG]

Why build when you can borrow at the lowest rates for 400 years? If true the Treasury and UK govt really are utter morons, but then we know that. Better to fund infrastructure and long term investments at far higher borrowing costs, if done at all.

 

[richieb1971]

It seems the government are so busy trying to reach milestones they don't actually care how much it costs.

A bit silly to start the GWR modernization plan, MML modernization plan, EWR and God knows what else all at the same time.

 

[snowball]

I would have thought it would make sense to shelve projects that are yet to get started.

You mean like Transpennine electrification for example? or haven't you been following that thread in the last few days?

 

[HSTEd]

Why build when you can borrow at the lowest rates for 400 years? If true the Treasury and UK govt really are utter morons, but then we know that. Better to fund infrastructure and long term investments at far higher borrowing costs, if done at all.

Borrowing has been declared pure evil by Gideon however.

He now commands eternal surplusses.

Given that the project is well underway it would seem to be a rather strange decision. I know that costs have over run given the need to upgrade the wiring between Bedford and London to allow trains to run at 125mph but I would have thought it would make sense to shelve projects that are yet to get started.

The TPE Project is effectively axed already. ('Shelved' - probably waiting for something to bury the news of its cancellation under).

There aren't really any uncommenced projects to cut other than that.

 

[Xenophon PCDGS]

The TPE Project is effectively axed already. ('Shelved' - probably waiting for something to bury the news of its cancellation under).

If that be the case, is there then any need to proceed with the Ordsall Chord project, whatever happens after the High Court review on the project that will commence in three months time?

 

[WatcherZero]

I don't particularly dislike the idea of the MML electrification but the whole 'National Spine' south coast freight thing was a disaster, a political project that the freight industry itself said they wernt interested in and was a waste of money. I would be happy if that was sacrificed and the industry itself would be happy if the focus shifted to connecting important yards rather than trying to create a national route which they couldn't use because the last mile and freight lines remained unelectrified.

 

[richieb1971]

There is supposedly a surplus of AC loco stock sitting about doing nothing. With the aid of MML OLE a lot of that could be put to better use. Obviously it would depend on the freight companies wanting to use it.

I'd like to know how OLE makes for better services for passengers though. Quite a lot of the track on the MML goes up and down, left and right.. Its not exactly the best track in the UK.

 

[SpacePhoenix]

I don't particularly dislike the idea of the MML electrification but the whole 'National Spine' south coast freight thing was a disaster, a political project that the freight industry itself said they wernt interested in and was a waste of money. I would be happy if that was sacrificed and the industry itself would be happy if the focus shifted to connecting important yards rather than trying to create a national route which they couldn't use because the last mile and freight lines remained unelectrified.

Why couldn't they have just electrify the section between Basingstoke and Reading to AC? If they done that and variant of class 801s was made that was dual voltage, could the XC services between Bournemouth and Manchester be electric all the way?

The Guardian has published an article which claims that the MML upgrade between Sheffield and London is likely to be axed because Network Rail has enormously blown its budget.



Anyone got any information about this? Is it just the Granuiad speculating again?

If it does get axed, what sort of a knock-on affect would it have with regard to diesels and DMUs? Would it mean that new DMUs would have to be purchased for somewhere in the country (before some of the 14x and 15x classes become life expired)?

 

[swt_passenger]

Why couldn't they have just electrify the section between Basingstoke and Reading to AC?

That's what they are doing. It's why it has been moved from the 'electric spine' project and into the Thames Valley Branches part of the overall GWML electrification.

The only logical reason for doing that is to use it for passenger services.

 

[lejog]

The Guardian has published an article which claims that the MML upgrade between Sheffield and London is likely to be axed because Network Rail has enormously blown its budget.

Anyone got any information about this? Is it just the Granuiad speculating again?

This is just one of the points raised in in one of the many press stories on the regulators report on Network Rail and Network Rail's annual results. I have tried to summarise the reports in another thread.

I doubt the Guardian would report this without sources, but it should be noted that the report says "could" not "is likely" and that the context is ...

A review this summer is likely to see major electrification projects shelved until the next decade as escalating costs add billions to the bill.... The electrification of the Midland mainline – described by Network Rail as “critical to delivering a reliable and sustainable railway and tackling overcrowding” on the line from London to Sheffield – could now be axed.

So yes it highly likely, due to delays and budget overruns in year 1 that the scope of CP5 plans will be cut and projects moved into CP6 and/or cancelled. Which projects (if any) that will be axed will only be known after the review.

 

[SpacePhoenix]

That's what they are doing. It's why it has been moved from the 'electric spine' project and into the Thames Valley Branches part of the overall GWML electrification.

The only logical reason for doing that is to use it for passenger services.

Is there currently any physical connection atm between the Waterloo-Reading line and the Basingstoke-Reading route?

 

[Harlan Cage]

That's what they are doing. It's why it has been moved from the 'electric spine' project and into the Thames Valley Branches part of the overall GWML electrification.

The only logical reason for doing that is to use it for passenger services.

But not Maidenhead to Marlow branch a delay (cut) masked by excuses about rolling stock availability when Mark Hopwood MD of FGW had found a solution 3 car Class 387 and the use of TPWS at Bourne End!

HC

 

[lejog]

If that be the case, is there then any need to proceed with the Ordsall Chord project, whatever happens after the High Court review on the project that will commence in three months time?

AFAIK the Ordsall Chord project is independent of TPE electrification. TPE electrification was only ever due to be complete 2 years after the Chord opened, so the first services were all going to be all diesel (and the Calder Valley services would be diesel for a long time).

IIRC the BCR of the Ordsall Chord is far higher than TPE electrification, so you would hope that it doesn't suffer cuts.

 

[swt_passenger]

Is there currently any physical connection atm between the Waterloo-Reading line and the Basingstoke-Reading route?

Yes. There is a bi-directional route through platforms 7 and 8, as before, and now that the 'feeder relief' is open a route through platforms 13,14,15 via the eastern underpass as well.

However both of these routes are unelectrified so there would need to be a suitable dual voltage section (or possibly two) added somewhere for the changeover to take place. I don't think they'd want to dual electrify the six or seven platforms needed to cover every eventuality, so it would probably be done by extending wiring down onto the 'southern' route.

But there's no evidence of intended through running, the plans in the route study are about Basingstoke services crossing Reading towards London, and services from the North Downs being extended towards Didcot and Oxford or further.

 

[ivanhoe]

It was recently announced that work on two major bridges in Loughborough would start in the Autumn.. This is to enable the electrification of the Midland Main Line It will be carnage in Loughborough for at least 3 month as it is the main Nottingham Road

 

[Taunton]

I go down the Paddington main line every couple of months, last time two days ago, and find extraordinary the lack of electrification progress to date. There were a few more portals (but nothing else) erected between Reading and Didcot, that seemed to be the sum total of visible and tangible progress since April. If this rate is maintained it will be completed some time around year 2100.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

There aren't really any uncommenced projects to cut other than that.

There's the entire ETCS/ERTMS/TMS programme (GW, GN)
East-West Rail
Electric Spine
Northern Hub
GOBLIN/Valleys/Bromsgrove/Chase/EGIP Pt2 wiring
Lots of train lengthening/power supply upgrade programmes, especially in DC land
The resignalling/ROC programme
etc etc

 

[Harlan Cage]

I go down the Paddington main line every couple of months, last time two days ago, and find extraordinary the lack of electrification progress to date. There were a few more portals (but nothing else) erected between Reading and Didcot, that seemed to be the sum total of visible and tangible progress since April. If this rate is maintained it will be completed some time around year 2100.

I agree not a mast to be seen east of Maidenhead until Twyford with the only signs that electrification is coming is that all the badges have been lifted/ replaced with new ones.

The Network Rail electrification plan appears to be out of control and rather than trying to projects in parallel, Network Rail needs to sort it's planning out apply some credible program management, redefine work packages with timelines and resources allocated effectively, proper change management which is evident of big projects such as new flyovers but sadly lacking when it comes to installing catenary footings and masts etc.

Maybe the overall time for completing these projects should be longer than originally planned, however at least they would be back under control and delivered. I have worked in many large organisations where managers that have performed in the way of some of the hierarchy at Network Rail have and were replaced with managers that could deliver!

HC

 

[MidlandMainlie]

There's the entire ETCS/ERTMS/TMS programme (GW, GN)
East-West Rail
Electric Spine
Northern Hub
GOBLIN/Valleys/Bromsgrove/Chase/EGIP Pt2 wiring
Lots of train lengthening/power supply upgrade programmes, especially in DC land
The resignalling/ROC programme
etc etc

Of those I would argue the non MML parts of the electric spine like Oxford to Leamington/Coventry/Nuneaton looks vulnerable to postponment/cancellation. East-West rail should hopefully be largely unaffected as is mostly rebuilt from scratch. I thought the ETCS/ERTMS/TMS programme had already been postponed? A decision on whether to proceed with the DC to AC conversion south of Basingstoke or replace 3rd rail like for like will also have to be made eventually.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Of those I would argue the non MML parts of the electric spine like Oxford to Leamington/Coventry/Nuneaton looks vulnerable to postponment/cancellation. East-West rail should hopefully be largely unaffected as is mostly rebuilt from scratch. I thought the ETCS/ERTMS/TMS programme had already been postponed? A decision on whether to proceed with the DC to AC conversion south of Basingstoke or replace 3rd rail like for like will also have to be made eventually.

What's at issue is what enhancements NR will deliver in CP5 for CP5 money.
Pushing things out to CP6 is all very well but not if you spend the money anyway.
Most of the list you give were going to be split over CP5/CP6 anyway.
The really hard thing is to say that increased costs destroy the business case for a project, and cancel it.
But I bet people in ORR/DfT are thinking those thoughts as NR fails to come up with acceptable costs/timescales for spending £12 billion in CP5.
Anyone with project management experience will recognise the symptoms.

 

[MidlandMainlie]

What's at issue is what enhancements NR will deliver in CP5 for CP5 money.
Pushing things out to CP6 is all very well but not if you spend the money anyway.
Most of the list you give were going to be split over CP5/CP6 anyway.
The really hard thing is to say that increased costs destroy the business case for a project, and cancel it.
But I bet people in ORR/DfT are thinking those thoughts as NR fails to come up with acceptable costs/timescales for spending £12 billion in CP5.
Anyone with project management experience will recognise the symptoms.

Very true however I doubt the government will want the political baggage that goes with cancelling projects. The Northern Powerhouse already starting to look hollow due to Transpennine electrification being postponed and the vague notions about HS3 in the distant future. I suppose we will have to wait till the spending review is complete before we know more.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Very true however I doubt the government will want the political baggage that goes with cancelling projects. The Northern Powerhouse already starting to look hollow due to Transpennine electrification being postponed and the vague notions about HS3 in the distant future. I suppose we will have to wait till the spending review is complete before we know more.

You could shelve ERTMS without upsetting passengers/promises.
I'm not suggesting that will happen (it is a critical project for NR's future), but there are "invisible" projects that would not immediately kick back on the government.
Some projects could be despecced too.
In the ORR stuff there is some reference to looking for economies in the South Wales stretch of GW electrification (because of the cost increases further east).

 

[The Planner]

Can't see Mark Carne going back on his big plan, he wants as much ETCS coverage as soon as possible.

 

[NotATrainspott]

Isn't part of the point of the rollout of ETCS that it would save money in the long term? If so, cancelling or delaying it might look good in the short term, but in the long term it would be a very bad thing. Indeed, that applies to most rail investment, most particularly electrification.

 

[Kevin_Brum12]

If MML electrification is axed then what will replace the HST's running between London, Nottingham and Sheffield? The 125's are not going to last forever. In my recollection electric class 800 IEP's were the proposed replacement once the wires went up, but if MML electrification is put on the back-burner then someone is going to have to put into place an alternative PDQ. Class 68's geared for 125 mph and a saloon version of the CAF stock being built for the sleeper with DVT's could be an option.

Will also be interesting to see what the reaction in the East Midlands and South Yorkshire if MML wiring is canned. When BR failed to deliver a full HST service in the early 80's and continued running the peaks and Mk II's it caused a rumpus, which was only solved when IC125 sets were reallocated from the West and from Cross Country owing to the recession of the time. Once again the Midland Main Line seems to be the Cinderella of the InterCity network and has missed its turn to go to the ball.

 

[SpacePhoenix]

Is the engine the a 125mph DMU physically possible anymore within the current emissions regs that could operate on a route like the MML?

 

[NotATrainspott]

If MML electrification is axed then what will replace the HST's running between London, Nottingham and Sheffield? The 125's are not going to last forever. In my recollection electric class 800 IEP's were the proposed replacement once the wires went up, but if MML electrification is put on the back-burner then someone is going to have to put into place an alternative PDQ. Class 68's geared for 125 mph and a saloon version of the CAF stock being built for the sleeper with DVT's could be an option.

Will also be interesting to see what the reaction in the East Midlands and South Yorkshire if MML wiring is canned. When BR failed to deliver a full HST service in the early 80's and continued running the peaks and Mk II's it caused a rumpus, which was only solved when IC125 sets were reallocated from the West and from Cross Country owing to the recession of the time. Once again the Midland Main Line seems to be the Cinderella of the InterCity network and has missed its turn to go to the ball.

If MML electrification is to be delayed it makes sense to order Class 800s for it, since they won't need to worry about the lack of electrification. These could then be cascaded away from the MML once the wires finally do go up, either to augment the ICEC/GW fleets or to CrossCountry. Ideally, they would be replaced like-for-like with electric-only Class 801s in a seamless fashion, without most passengers ever noticing or caring.

 

[petersi]

I thought class 800 could be made electric only as part of the spec