It's interesting reading this thread again that the debate of which lines should be reopened and all the reasons why they will and won't, so let's look at the facts.
1. The Merseytravel long term plan covers "a wish list" or projects that may or may not eventually come to fruition.
2. So far only one project has been given the go-ahead and that is the upgrade of the Halton curve, but again it should be emphasised that no commitment from Merseytravel has been made for any new services to operate over it. Liverpool City Council is anxious to improve connectivity to parts of the UK that currently can only be reached using indirect routing such as South and North Wales as well as the South Coast and South West.
3. Maghull North on the Ormskirk line and St James to the south of Central look like two of projects that seem to leading contenders for early starts. As for the other twenty plus projects, it's a question of waiting and waiting and waiting, which is perhaps understandable after the criticism taken after their last big attempt at extending public transport on Merseyside in the form of Merseytram. It's also perhaps noticeable that an announcement on the replacement or otherwise of the 507/508 fleet is still outstanding which of course could be related to decisions on which extensions to the Merseyrail are to proceed. Finally, another spanner in the works could be the impeding General Election and the need by the next Parliament to reduce public spending that has been acknowledged by both of the major parties. It's unlikely the present Tory lead Government will commit funds until the Budget and their manifesto is launched, whilst the Labour Party may have priorities elsewhere in what is already a largely safe Labour area.
4. Whilst I agree reopening the Outer loop would offer some advantages, the facts are that it does not make the 30 year long term plan so at least for the time being it must be considered as a none starter.
I'd agree electrifying the Bootle branch with OHLE would make sense in the longer term although I suspect it may not be an early starter until the volumes and type of freight moving to and from the Port of Liverpool are a little clearer. Changing the type of fuel burnt by power stations from coal to wood pellets will inevitably increase the number of trains because the volume of the pellets is about three times that of coal, so the individual weight of each train will correspondingly decrease and perhaps make them suitable for Class 88 haulage thus solving the final mile issue.
The question of intermodal trains to and from the Port of Liverpool is to my mind a big unknown as potentially it could be huge increase, but it really does depend on the mix of services and destination served. To explain, at the moment the throughput at Seaforth is about 750,000 teu, (TEU - Twenty foot equivalent units) although a large proportion will be 40ft (FEU - Forty foot equivalent units) because of the ports leading role in trade with the USA and Canada in which the 40ft is regard more of the standard than a 20ft unit. The leading role in these markets, means that the Port of Liverpool handles about 40% of the UK's seaborne trade with these countries. The other traditional trades are to and from the Mediterranean and Iberian peninsular, but in recent years Peel through it's wholly owned Rotterdam based feeder line BG Freight Line has developed a service that operates up to three times a week from Rotterdam to Liverpool, Dublin and Belfast although the latter two are not featured on each voyage. Thus combined with it's other owned Irish Sea subsidiary, Coastal Container Line, it can offer a daily service to Belfast and Dublin, as well as up to three sailings a week to Irlam on the Manchester Ship Canal. In addition the CMA-CGM operated but branded Macandrews services from Iberia add calls at Bristol (Portbury) and Greenock as well as fourth service from Rotterdam, whilst X-press Container Line provide a weekly service from Southampton. There is a certain amount of "slot chartering" between all the operators to cater in particular for empty box movements and to avoid unprofitable duplications. Aside from the MSC and CMA-CGM/Macandrews own services, the feeder operators carry cargo for (in no particular order), APL, OOCL, Hapag Lloyd, NYK, Evergreen Group, China Shipping, Maersk, Hamburg Sud, and Zim. At the moment some of these Carriers do not promote their Liverpool service for their own confidential reasons, whilst some do so because of customer demand. OOCL and Hapag operate a joint service with MSC to and from Montreal, whilst Hapag Lloyd has a historic agreement with ACL to take slots on their Con/ro service from Liverpool to the USA/East Coast of Canada and USA, whilst allows ACL to take slots on the Hapag services to the same region from Southampton and London Gateway. In all these carriers represent about 85% to 95% of the main deep sea carriers calling in the UK, whilst the balance also operate services with some of these carriers. There is therefore no single carrier consortium that is not represented, and this is what makes predicting the potential intermodal volume so difficult to estimate, as these consortiums can comprise several different services (ie port combinations) within their usual weekly product.
When Liverpool2 opens the capacity will be approx. 500,000 teu but the terminal will be capable of further expansion should it be required, and some services will continue to use Seaforth which will also undergo an upgrade, so the total throughput will rise to approx. 1,3 million teu, which will make it roughly half the size of the Felixstowe. The difference is that Felixstowe and Southampton both are a greater distance from the industrial base of the UK so it makes economic sense to move containers inland by rail because of the distance, this fact is reversed in Liverpool's case and hence the traditional use of road transport. However, it is acknowledged by all sides that the potential additional road volume would not be beneficial to the region, and probably could not be sustained, so hence the need to develop alternative distribution strategies. As I have already explained Peel have the mechanism to service the entire Irish Sea Ports with daily services to Dublin, Belfast, and potentially Greenock, Bristol and perhaps even Cork, something that no other European Port can achieve. With the Irish market now improving it is anticipated that some Carriers will switch some of their UK services to Liverpool so that they can readily supply two markets with one call and reduce their distribution costs. It should also be noted that the Irish Sea remains outside the area that requires the carrier to burn low sulphur fuel, ie the same legislation that has lead to issues for diesel locomotives operators in this country from lst Jan 2015. Thus the difference in cost of low sulphur fuel, will help offset the deviation to Liverpool from the Bay of Biscay and English Channel, although a vessel sailing from the East Coast of North of America and Canada north about Ireland to Liverpool will gain the shorter route and lower coast. These costs plus the lower UK distribution costs because until UK export loads from the north will no longer have to be subsidised by the Carrier together with more efficient use of empty equipment are likely to become a powerful incentive to Carriers to switch some of their services to the new terminal.
Having fully explained the reason why intermodal container movements might increase and getting back on topic, what are the implications for rail? As already stated I would expect the Bootle Branch to be electrified with OHLE, at some point and allowing the return of passengers services although the exact pattern of services will likely depend on when and if other routes on the Merseyrail network are reopened, ie the North Liverpool Line, and the Ormskirk to Preston Line being electrified. Should either or both of these happen, and rail freight from the Port of Liverpool expand greatly there could be capacity issues especially if more passenger services are operated across the Chat Moss route. At this point, I don't think we are looking at immediate problem, but perhaps in five years to ten years time we could be looking for an alternative direct rail route to the WCML. I will return to this point later.
I'd broadly agree that the return of the container Carrier's will bring work back to Liverpool, but I doubt this will be thousand's or even hundreds of jobs as technology in the industry allows the job to be done almost anywhere. ACL Liverpool for example completes all the documentation for it's services for the whole of North Europe and North America, as well as that of parent Grimaldi, and works shift's to 2200hrs Monday to Friday so that the office maintains Eastern Standard time. Maersk does most of it's documentation in India, and it's accounts in the Philippines although the UK head office in Liverpool does handle some customer services. CMA-CGM has it's head office in Liverpool, but handles a vast amount of back room functions in Mumbai, whilst OOCL are located in Levington (Suffolk) and all their backroom and much of their customer service is based in Shanghai using extensive electronic functions. There is also a continuing consolidation process on going in the container industry, to demonstrate Hapag Lloyd has just recently completed the purchase, although it is called a merger officially of CSAV a Chilean based carrier. CSAV Liverpool is the UK head office and handles all traffic in and out of the UK, and Ireland, whilst Hapag has a large Liverpool office handling mainly exports and customer service. The two operations will start to be merged in the second quarter of 2015 and inevitably there will be job losses. The new jobs created are therefore likely to be created in support industries which tend not be located in the central commercial area, but more within the dock estate or surrounding area where there is a need for a physical intervention with the ship or cargo. It is difficult to see a sector in which Liverpool could gain significant numbers of clerical jobs, with the constant downsizing of public services and banking or financial services already concentrated in other parts of the country.
The Liverpool Enterprise Partnership report highlighted a shortage of modern quality warehousing in the region in order to handle the devanning and loading of containers. Whilst Peel is creating a small number of these facilities within the port boundaries, a Peel subsidiary has acquired a site on Kirkby Industrial Estate now known as Knowsley 700. This site is adjacent to the existing Potter Distribution railhead, and could potentially be linked to the rail network through the Kirkby to Wigan line, which is due to be cleared for container operations in the near future and which offers a north and south connection to the WCML at Wigan. What is interesting about this development is that Merseytravel 30 year plan includes a new station at Headbolt Lane which is beyond the existing Kirkby station terminal, as well as possibly extending the service to Wigan and even Skelmersdale. The Potter railhead connection to the Wigan line faces Liverpool a short distance beyond the proposed station but offers no access to the rest of the main railwork in this direction, nor the Port of Liverpool system and thus requires locomotives to run around their train to reach Wigan. The exact role of Knowsley 700 is yet to be fully revealed by Peel but it is anticipated that it will be developed as a high quality freight village where goods will be transferred to and from containers to domestic distribution networks. The distance by road to Seaforth gate is about 9.5 miles so the site would likely use shunt vehicles overnight to position containers from Liverpool2 and Seaforth for devanning/loading during the working day. This raises an interesting issue about the electrification of the Kirkby to Wigan line as clearly to for Merseyrail trains to reach Headbolt Lane the existing 3rd rail would have to be extended possibly as far as Wigan if the full Merseytravel proposals are to be implemented. However, the route is also due to be cleared for containers to enable a Potter contract to be fulfilled which could then allow the route to be electrified with OHLE. Potentially this would offer several advantages such as allowing through electric services for both passenger and freight operators in the longer term, rather than a "closed" Merseyrail service and perhaps a long term requirement for the freight operator to use diesel transaction.
Assuming the Wigan line is wired, there then could be a good case for constructing a link to the south of Kirkdale Station with the Bootle Branch and restoring the four track line through the cutting to Walton Junction which would then allow trains to reach the Port of Liverpool from the WCML as alternative to the potentially congested Chat Moss route. This would probably considerably cheaper than trying to build an alternative route from the Port of Liverpool using the Ormskirk to Preston route which would be the only other real alternative.
Merseytravel 30 year plan proposes the reopening of the North Liverpool line between Aintree and Bootle Oriel Road including some new or reopened stations on the line. Assuming this were to happen and the route from Preston to Ormskirk was also electrified it would allow a variety of options, including running services from Preston and beyond via Ormskirk, the North Liverpool Branch to Liverpool Central and beyond. Both schemes have their individual merits especially if Lancashire County Council is willing to contribute to the scheme. Whilst the Preston to Ormskirk section is largely rural, there are numerous residential developments along the route as well as small amount of light industry that all could benefit from better local transport links which an electrified Ormskirk to Preston service could provide.
One of the big problems in adding additional services or lines to the Merseyrail network on the Liverpool side of the Mersey is the capacity at Central. At the moment the network is not particularly well balanced which results in services having to be turned at Central which takes up vital capacity. I'd therefore agree completing the Edge Hill spur, whilst costly could have huge benefits for the network. It would for example allow some services from the north of the city to be routed to Runcorn and then around the Halton curve to Chester, thus eliminating the need to turn services at Central and also providing what would otherwise be two end to end services. A new station in the Smithdown Road area has been proposed by Merseytravel on this route, and with all the developments near Widnes a reopening at Ditton could be another option, thus potentially greater demand to the south of city centre. Another option would be to extend the Merseyrail network to terminate at Gateacre rather than Hunts Cross although the chances of it actually happening are probably quite remote.
As already suggested the Edge Hill spur would allow services from the City Line to and from the east to run through Central and possibly via the James Street Junction to the Wirral, which would also have the beneficial effect of diverting some local services from Lime Street as well as integrating both the Merseyrail and replacement Northern franchise services.
At this stage, I think the is little prospect of a link to Liverpool Airport from any direction, largely because many of the other schemes offer greater potential, but also the huge cost of building a dedicated spur from LSPW and / or the Ditton area. However, should Freightliner decide to vacate their Garston Terminal, I envisage the Merseyrail could reach the airport by restoring the route from Cressington to the north side of terminal and then following the route under Speke Road and around the back of the retail park before burrowing back under Speke Road to the airport.
Moving to the Wirral, the only real expansion could be the Borderlands line from Bidston to Wrexham and perhaps the construction of a couple of new stations on the route. Apart from the question of who pays, the next big debate would be 3rd rail or OHLE, with perhaps the latter eventually winning the debate. The Welsh Government seems keen for an upgrade to take place the big unknown is the cost and whether a business case exists for an upgrade to electric traction which in the longer term would likely offer the lower costs.
Whilst much of the Merseytravel 30 year plan dates from schemes dating back to the 1970's it could be questioned why are they being repeated 40 years later? The simple answer is that then the local economy was in downturn and there was little will from successive Governments to invest in local infrastructure projects in the area. Today, the picture is a lot different, especially with organisations like Peel investing heavily in the area. Having tried pumping millions of pounds of Government funds into the local economy with mixed results, the policy of both main parties is to invest in infrastructure projects in the hope that the projects will help the private sector generate greater wealth, and thus reduce the drain on the public purse. If Merseytravel can get their sums right then now might just be the right time to get at least some of their schemes off the ground, so to speak.