Media Coverage of COVID -19

[35B]

Unclear in what way? That the data wasn't in, because we do have a very good understanding of how the human immune system retains genetic memory of previous infections in order to fight repeat infections. So unless SARS-CoV-2 was from some completely new, previously unseen genetic line there was always going to be the possibility that infection would have the same effect as other viruses. And as early as a year ago evidence was emerging that people who had no exposure to it still had some level of pre-existing immunity, suggesting that exposure to other viruses of similar genetic sequences could be the reason for this.

This latest research shouldn't be too much of a shock, well with perhaps the exception of the people seemingly wanting the virus to be worse than it actually is, or at least for the restrictions to go on much longer.

Unclear, in that credible sources and reports have been suggesting very different findings. Our understanding of human immune response is partial, and there are plenty of remaining questions. So I'm not shocked or surprised, but do regard it as good news that they have found that outcome.

Meanwhile, I repeat my observation that this is good news if the results in that paper are representative and sustained. As with all good science, I'd expect researchers to be trying to reproduce those results and validate the outcomes of what's been published - and if they can't, to publish those findings too.

 

[Bantamzen]

Unclear, in that credible sources and reports have been suggesting very different findings. Our understanding of human immune response is partial, and there are plenty of remaining questions. So I'm not shocked or surprised, but do regard it as good news that they have found that outcome.

Meanwhile, I repeat my observation that this is good news if the results in that paper are representative and sustained. As with all good science, I'd expect researchers to be trying to reproduce those results and validate the outcomes of what's been published - and if they can't, to publish those findings too.

And I'm sure in the coming weeks, months and years all this will be peer reviewed & published accordingly.

However I my point is that this is not an unexpected result, and adds weight to the argument that we are at the end of the pandemic (at least in the UK and a number of other countries) with both vaccine and natural immunity.

 

[35B]

And I'm sure in the coming weeks, months and years all this will be peer reviewed & published accordingly.

However I my point is that this is not an unexpected result, and adds weight to the argument that we are at the end of the pandemic (at least in the UK and a number of other countries) with both vaccine and natural immunity.

Nearer the end than the beginning, I'd agree. At the end is I suggest extremely optimistic.

 

[Bantamzen]

Nearer the end than the beginning, I'd agree. At the end is I suggest extremely optimistic.

We are close to the end of the pandemic, we are reaching the point where the we have vaccines & treatments, where we can get the number of people seriously affected by it right down. Like all the other viruses we have in circulation it is becoming endemic & we need to start treating it as such.

 

[35B]

We are close to the end of the pandemic, we are reaching the point where the we have vaccines & treatments, where we can get the number of people seriously affected by it right down. Like all the other viruses we have in circulation it is becoming endemic & we need to start treating it as such.

Across the summer, I agree - my question is purely as to timing. All plausible modelling suggests that relaxation of restrictions can lead to an exit wave, the size and severity of which will depend on quite how the amount of virus in circulation interacts with the levels of immunity in the population. The confused figures from Bolton etc. show how difficult understanding that is, especially (even pre-vaccination) when there is a delay between transmission and infection, and then infection and hospitalisation.

 

[Bantamzen]

Across the summer, I agree - my question is purely as to timing. All plausible modelling suggests that relaxation of restrictions can lead to an exit wave, the size and severity of which will depend on quite how the amount of virus in circulation interacts with the levels of immunity in the population. The confused figures from Bolton etc. show how difficult understanding that is, especially (even pre-vaccination) when there is a delay between transmission and infection, and then infection and hospitalisation.

Or in other words you are hoping for relaxations not to end? Because whenever we reach a key milestone, you seem to reach for the next reason down the road to slow things down.

 

[35B]

Or in other words you are hoping for relaxations not to end? Because whenever we reach a key milestone, you seem to reach for the next reason down the road to slow things down.

Oh, I would like restrictions to end. Once and for all, too.

But, as I've long argued, that means looking at the data as it is rather than trying to force it into a mould. I've long been uncomfortable about the coverage of Bolton, and the way that this coverage (and especially government messaging and what's input into it) hasn't engaged seriously with the role of vaccination and what that can do to affect transmission; it's seemed like an invitation for the pessimists to take over the asylum. At the same time, when I see reports like https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-57242368 which starts with the quoted text, I take it seriously - knowing how quickly numbers have escalated in the past:

A hospital in Bolton has said it is taking "urgent action" to manage a surge in patients with Covid.
Royal Bolton Hospital said it had experienced "one of the busiest days ever" and urged people to attend A&E only "if absolutely necessary".

Something significant is going on, and we don't have the information yet to understand it's significance. If it's purely local, and the cases presenting at the hospital aren't especially serious, then that's really good news. But that's not the case, then I'd rather the government took time to understand it and what it means than that they say "it's endemic" and ignore it when we've seen the damage that a surge in cases can do as hospitals can't take the load.

 

[Bantamzen]

Oh, I would like restrictions to end. Once and for all, too.

But, as I've long argued, that means looking at the data as it is rather than trying to force it into a mould. I've long been uncomfortable about the coverage of Bolton, and the way that this coverage (and especially government messaging and what's input into it) hasn't engaged seriously with the role of vaccination and what that can do to affect transmission; it's seemed like an invitation for the pessimists to take over the asylum. At the same time, when I see reports like https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-57242368 which starts with the quoted text, I take it seriously - knowing how quickly numbers have escalated in the past:

Something significant is going on, and we don't have the information yet to understand it's significance. If it's purely local, and the cases presenting at the hospital aren't especially serious, then that's really good news. But that's not the case, then I'd rather the government took time to understand it and what it means than that they say "it's endemic" and ignore it when we've seen the damage that a surge in cases can do as hospitals can't take the load.

Being more of a data guy, I would have thought you would have looked at the data. And is it me, or is this Groundhog Day again?

 

[nedchester]

Oh, I would like restrictions to end. Once and for all, too.

But, as I've long argued, that means looking at the data as it is rather than trying to force it into a mould. I've long been uncomfortable about the coverage of Bolton, and the way that this coverage (and especially government messaging and what's input into it) hasn't engaged seriously with the role of vaccination and what that can do to affect transmission; it's seemed like an invitation for the pessimists to take over the asylum. At the same time, when I see reports like https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-57242368 which starts with the quoted text, I take it seriously - knowing how quickly numbers have escalated in the past:

Something significant is going on, and we don't have the information yet to understand it's significance. If it's purely local, and the cases presenting at the hospital aren't especially serious, then that's really good news. But that's not the case, then I'd rather the government took time to understand it and what it means than that they say "it's endemic" and ignore it when we've seen the damage that a surge in cases can do as hospitals can't take the load.

I get the impression that the surge is due to a combination of poor multi-generation households along with a number of those same group being low in take up of vaccine. This is probably why there's been a big push with the vaccine.

I do think there has been a lot of hype over this variant.

 

[Bantamzen]

I get the impression that the surge is due to a combination of poor multi-generation households along with a number of those same group being low in take up of vaccine. This is probably why there's been a big push with the vaccine.

I do think there has been a lot of hype over this variant.

There does seem to have been too much but sadly this is how the game is played now. I'm sure in the coming days and weeks there will be many more variants of concern.

 

[Bayum]

I get the impression that the surge is due to a combination of poor multi-generation households along with a number of those same group being low in take up of vaccine. This is probably why there's been a big push with the vaccine.

I do think there has been a lot of hype over this variant.

Well, it isn’t a lot of hype. If people are becoming seriously ill to the point they need to attend A&E and they are constraining the usual A&E and hospital capacity it is an issue.

 

[35B]

Being more of a data guy, I would have thought you would have looked at the data. And is it me, or is this Groundhog Day again?

I've looked, within the limits of my lay understanding, at what's been published - and it's not clear-cut. As much to the point, the detailed data was largely released on Saturday night, and this report from the hospital is today - which suggests the facts are developing, and not yet all visible in the data.

I get the impression that the surge is due to a combination of poor multi-generation households along with a number of those same group being low in take up of vaccine. This is probably why there's been a big push with the vaccine.

I do think there has been a lot of hype over this variant.

In Bolton, I believe the two worst affected postcodes have also had limited local vaccination facilities, which has impacted the ability of people to get to vaccinations sessions - the decision to bring the vaccines to the postcode areas once the surge started has been one of the more important criticisms I've seen of the programme, especially for those with limited ability to take time off work and limited transport to where they can be vaccinated.

 

[Yew]

Well, it isn’t a lot of hype. If people are becoming seriously ill to the point they need to attend A&E and they are constraining the usual A&E and hospital capacity it is an issue.

Is there any evidence that this is due to the variant?

 

[35B]

Is there any evidence that this is due to the variant?

The figures reported suggest that the growth is strongly centred on this variant. Whether those hospital cases are variant related is not yet clear, but it would be a reasonable assumption that they are proportionate to the incidence of the different variants.

 

[Yew]

The figures reported suggest that the growth is strongly centred on this variant. Whether those hospital cases are variant related is not yet clear, but it would be a reasonable assumption that they are proportionate to the incidence of the different variants.

I suppose if you ignore the million other factors you could come to that conclusion.

 

[Darandio]

I suppose if you ignore the million other factors you could come to that conclusion.

Given it's been claimed that the vast majority who are hospitalised were offered and refused the vaccine, i'm pretty certain that would be a large factor with any variant.

 

[35B]

Given it's been claimed that the vast majority who are hospitalised were offered and refused the vaccine, i'm pretty certain that would be a large factor with any variant.

But “refused” means didn’t receive - given the access issues in that part of Bolton, I’d be reluctant to take the conclusion that it meant didn’t want.

 

[Bantamzen]

The figures reported suggest that the growth is strongly centred on this variant. Whether those hospital cases are variant related is not yet clear, but it would be a reasonable assumption that they are proportionate to the incidence of the different variants.

Someone elsewhere pointed this out, try looking at the reported cases per day data for say Bolton. They are actually on a downward trend and have been for a week. In a few days time the cases per 100,000 will follow suit as last week's high drop out of the 7 day rolling average.

 

[nedchester]

But “refused” means didn’t receive - given the access issues in that part of Bolton, I’d be reluctant to take the conclusion that it meant didn’t want.

I've seen you mention that there were 'access' issues regarding the vaccine in Bolton. Do you have a link to this?

Most local towns have a nearby location where people can get vaccinated.

 

[nlogax]

Someone elsewhere pointed this out, try looking at the reported cases per day data for say Bolton. They are actually on a downward trend and have been for a week. In a few days time the cases per 100,000 will follow suit as last week's high drop out of the 7 day rolling average.

It's not just Bolton. See also Luton, Burnley et al who are all following the same pattern.

 

[35B]

I've seen you mention that there were 'access' issues regarding the vaccine in Bolton. Do you have a link to this?

Most local towns have a nearby location where people can get vaccinated.

My recollection is that it was commentary by one of the local MPs, highlighting the distribution of the local vaccination centres relative to the community and their relative access to transport. So not that there weren’t centres in and around Bolton, but that their positioning, interacting with other factors, passively discouraged those living in those particular areas. It was then observed that more people came out when the vaccination was brought into the community.

Hence my reasons for wanting to look behind bald statements of “vaccine refusal” to understand the specific reasons why in a particular community.

Someone elsewhere pointed this out, try looking at the reported cases per day data for say Bolton. They are actually on a downward trend and have been for a week. In a few days time the cases per 100,000 will follow suit as last week's high drop out of the 7 day rolling average.

Good. If so, that will suggest that the worse fears around this variant in that community were not realised, and that we have a demonstration of how circumstances have changed from earlier in the pandemic, and how surges are more likely to be self limiting.

 

[DustyBin]

Given it's been claimed that the vast majority who are hospitalised were offered and refused the vaccine, i'm pretty certain that would be a large factor with any variant.

I’m not sure the variant is the problem here, but it sounds more scary to spin it that way. What’s happened is covid has entered communities with a relatively large number of unvaccinated vulnerable people and some of those people are now becoming ill. It appears to have done so as a result of people within those communities having travelled back from India, but in reality covid of any variety would have had the same effect. And, at some point as an endemic virus, covid would have entered those communities one way or another, I’m sure.

 

[Bantamzen]

It's not just Bolton. See also Luton, Burnley et al who are all following the same pattern.

I've even seen it in my my home city Bradford, where numbers had been creeping up for a while, but are now like other areas falling away again although not yet visible in the x in 100,000 metric.

Now I'm not one for tin-foil-hattery, but it does seem something of a coincidence that in some <cough> demographically diverse areas this rise & drop infection rates wrap neatly around the last easement key date.

 

[kristiang85]

It's not just Bolton. See also Luton, Burnley et al who are all following the same pattern.

More to the point, it's absolutely plummeting in India still. Its not the super variant that it's made out to be.

 

[Class 33]

Someone elsewhere pointed this out, try looking at the reported cases per day data for say Bolton. They are actually on a downward trend and have been for a week. In a few days time the cases per 100,000 will follow suit as last week's high drop out of the 7 day rolling average.

Yes that was Duncanp on the support conversation thread. Just looking at the number of daily cases in Bolton for example. On 2nd May there were only 29 cases reported that day. But over the next 16 days cases had surged up to a peak of 284 on 18th May. From then they've been heading down rapidly. On Monday there were just 46 cases! Yet on BBC Breakfast and Good Morning Britain this morning they're going on about a surge in the Indian variant, a surge in cases!! What the.....??? If they did some quick research, they will see there is no longer a surge in the Indian variant and no longer a surge in cases!

 

[Bantamzen]

Yes that was Duncanp on the support conversation thread. Just looking at the number of daily cases in Bolton for example. On 2nd May there were only 29 cases reported that day. But over the next 16 days cases had surged up to a peak of 284 on 18th May. From then they've been heading down rapidly. On Monday there were just 46 cases! Yet on BBC Breakfast and Good Morning Britain this morning they're going on about a surge in the Indian variant, a surge in cases!! What the.....??? If they did some quick research, they will see there is no longer a surge in the Indian variant and no longer a surge in cases!

I'm sure they would have done the research, however & conveniently there is the 'X in 100,000' rolling 7 day figure which in effect is a snapshot over the last week, and not necessarily the current position. You may have noticed that media organisations like BBC News have recently been shifting from this metric, to case numbers, percentage increases or anything else that paints the worst apparent picture at the time of reporting. I predict that in a few days they will shift away from x in 100K for places like Bolton as these will reverse.

 

[35B]

I'm sure they would have done the research, however & conveniently there is the 'X in 100,000' rolling 7 day figure which in effect is a snapshot over the last week, and not necessarily the current position. You may have noticed that media organisations like BBC News have recently been shifting from this metric, to case numbers, percentage increases or anything else that paints the worst apparent picture at the time of reporting. I predict that in a few days they will shift away from x in 100K for places like Bolton as these will reverse.

That's a very cynical view And it's not as though some of those opposing the standard narrative haven't chosen a single day's figures to "prove" their point while going very silent when subsequent data has come out?

The data is mixed, and from a news point of view it is important both that the peak is falling, and that the hospitalisations associated with that peak are only now hitting the hospitals. From the perspective of vaccination, I'd be concerned about the message "it's all over"; from the impact on the local community (and in the other affected areas), the story has still to run.

And, yes, I agree that this is yet another example of reporters' love of bad news.

 

[Ediswan]

More to the point, it's absolutely plummeting in India still. Its not the super variant that it's made out to be.

For Stevenage, the local paper picked up that B.1.617.2 took over as the dominant variant early in May. This was using data from the Wellcome Sanger Institute.

Variant data from Wellcome Sanger Institute

There has been no corresponding surge in cases. The trend in case numbers continues to be down, currently just below the national average.

 

[Bantamzen]

That's a very cynical view And it's not as though some of those opposing the standard narrative haven't chosen a single day's figures to "prove" their point while going very silent when subsequent data has come out?

The data is mixed, and from a news point of view it is important both that the peak is falling, and that the hospitalisations associated with that peak are only now hitting the hospitals. From the perspective of vaccination, I'd be concerned about the message "it's all over"; from the impact on the local community (and in the other affected areas), the story has still to run.

And, yes, I agree that this is yet another example of reporters' love of bad news.

Cynical yes, but this is what I have observed over the last 14 months. And it seems to be the case across the media, regardless of orientation the figure that tends to be used is the one that is most dramatic (read appears to be the worst). Its fairly well accepted that bad news sells / generates clicks better than good news, & it stands to reason that most media channels chase the sales / clicks so 2+2=4.

 

[35B]

Cynical yes, but this is what I have observed over the last 14 months. And it seems to be the case across the media, regardless of orientation the figure that tends to be used is the one that is most dramatic (read appears to be the worst). Its fairly well accepted that bad news sells / generates clicks better than good news, & it stands to reason that most media channels chase the sales / clicks so 2+2=4.

I agree, it does sell. But I read no more into the cherry picking than that.