Being Devil's advocate.... what if the bus service was specified to be integrated with, and to similar times, as the train service? And was cheaper to use? And required (much) less subsidy?
I sketched out a plan to replace Aber-Shrewsbury trains with a comparable express bus service that could carry the same numbers that use the trains. I had to split it into 3 sections all hourly. The footfall for 11/12 was 800,000 plus those changing to the coast line.
An express coach from Aberystwyth that ran over the A44 to Llanidloes then to Newtown and Welshpool only to Shrewsbury. 1 per hour.
A Newtown to Shrewsbury and all stops inbetween incl villages en route and slightly off route. 1 per hour.
An Aberystwyth to Shrewsbury via Machynlleth thats all stops to Newtown and then quick to Shrewsbury. 1 per hour.
I then realized I needed something like 25 plus coaches - that quantity would have to be brand new to run it (and replaced every 5 years) and i needed to find depots for them. The capital start up costs run into £ millions.
I then realized that the displaced Class 158 units would be demanded to be used by Northern Citys so there would be no savings here. The hundred plus railway staff based out of Machynlleth would all need redundancy payments and then they would never earn comparable wages locally and many would end up claiming benefit. The local economy would suffer knock on effects from the lose of income. Aber uni would be less attractive to students and staff due to remoteness and go into decline with knock on effects.
The express coaches would end up being full of pensioners using there free bus passes so they dont have to keep the heating on at home all day, making them less attractive to paying customers. etc etc.