March fare increases - where to find them?

[m00036]

Other than TfL (which has updated its single fare finder), is there a way to access the new fares coming into effect in March?

 

[Haywain]

No. Not publicly available until the day (March 1st).

 

[py_megapixel]

No. Not publicly available until the day (March 1st).

Are they not appearing in journey planners for dates after then?

 

[Haywain]

Are they not appearing in journey planners for dates after then?

No. Buy before 1 March at current prices.

 

[py_megapixel]

Fair enough (though I am led to wonder why my local bus company is capable of publicising its new fares several weeks in advance but the rail industry seemingly isn't)

 

[Watershed]

Fair enough (though I am led to wonder why my local bus company is capable of publicising its new fares several weeks in advance but the rail industry seemingly isn't)

It's not too hard to work out what the new prices will be - take the current prices and (in almost all cases) multiply by 1.038, then round up to the nearest 5p.

But yes, it's one of many signs (as if any more were needed) that the railway doesn't really rate customer service as a very high priority.

 

[JonathanH]

It's not too hard to work out what the new prices will be - take the current prices and (in almost all cases) multiply by 1.038, then round up to the nearest 10p.

Maybe 3.8% for regulated fares but many others will be changing by more, there may be changes to restrictions, there may be some cheaper fares withdrawn.

Even within the Oyster / Contactless figures, Redhill to London peak single is increasing by 8.1% and the off-peak single by 6.1%, so whilst many fares may be changing by 3.8%, I'm sure there will be others changing much more.

The upshot is to buy as many tickets for travel after 1 March as possible in advance of that date. With that in mind, knowing what the fares are after 1 March wouldn't really change many people's decisions.

 

[Hadders]

I do wonder how many tickets will have more restrictions imposed, or how many good value fares will get withdrawn.

 

[skyhigh]

But yes, it's one of many signs (as if any more were needed) that the railway doesn't really rate customer service as a very high priority.

I've never understood why the new fares seem to be treated as a state secret.

 

[JonathanH]

I've never understood why the new fares seem to be treated as a state secret.

This arrangements this year are unusual. In normal circumstances, the fares would already be in force for advance purchases as it is now less than four weeks to the fare change so actually not knowing the new fares is favourable, but yes, you might have thought there was some way to share the new fares.

 

[The Quincunx]

I've never understood why the new fares seem to be treated as a state secret.

Ask DfT.

 

[yorkie]

I've never understood why the new fares seem to be treated as a state secret.

I think that this year and last year the DfT wanted to avoid negative publicity seen in previous years; to do this they have:

• pushed back the annual increase a couple of months to March
• prevented new fares being visible/sold until the date of the actual change

The idea is that journalists will have hopefully forgotten about the annual fare increase by March and that even if they do remember, they won't have time to do any research regarding the new fares, and therefore negative publicity will be avoided.

If anyone can provide an alternative explanation, I am all ears, but I am pretty sure the above likely covers it!

 

[Paul Kelly]

I think that this year and last year the DfT wanted to avoid negative publicity seen in previous years; to do this they have:

• pushed back the annual increase a couple of months to March
• prevented new fares being visible/sold until the date of the actual change

The idea is that journalists will have hopefully forgotten about the annual fare increase by March and that even if they do remember, they won't have time to do any research regarding the new fares, and therefore negative publicity will be avoided.

If anyone can provide an alternative explanation, I am all ears, but I am pretty sure the above likely covers it!

That's the most plausible explanation I've heard so far, except that if the journalists have contacts in the rail industry they could surely research the new fares - as they are widely available internally and have been accidentally published in at least two systems I'm aware of.

 

[Starmill]

The approach taken this year and last year has the (admittedly very small) advantage that you can buy your tickets for journeys in March and potentially early April at reduced prices by booking on the last day in February, if any of your travel plans are firm that far in advance. It's not much, but it's not nothing. Not something I'm going to bother with myself, but if you wanted to you could.

 

[Haywain]

That's the most plausible explanation I've heard so far, except that if the journalists have contacts in the rail industry they could surely research the new fares - as they are widely available internally and have been accidentally published in at least two systems I'm aware of.

Even within the industry the new fares seem to be a closely guarded secret.

 

[trainophile]

Well that just took care of my Saturday night, and about £180! Drumming my fingers now waiting for some early May Advances to appear.

 

[Hadders]

Historically the rail industry would shoot itself in the foot when it came to fares increases.

When the inflation figures were published on which the increases were based (July?) the press has their first field day.

Next press field day was in early December when the fares went live in retail systems, for travel after the date of the increase.

Then finally the day of the increase itself. Usually the first day back after the New Year break which is normally a slow news day. Another chance for a press field day.

I do fear that we will see a cull of good value unregulated fares this time round, under the banner of simplification. Then add in a few more evening restrictions for good measure. I hope I am wrong but this year’s increase is bound to have the hallmarks of the DfT and the Treasury stamped all over it.

 

[JonathanH]

When the inflation figures were published on which the increases were based (July?) the press has their first field day.

Next press field day was in early December when the fares went live in retail systems, for travel after the date of the increase.

Then finally the day of the increase itself. Usually the first day back after the New Year break which is normally a slow news day. Another chance for a press field day

It is difficult to see how that cycle could ever be changed. Of course, the fare changes that sonetimes happen in May and September to unregulated fares tend to go unnoticed. The story linked to July RPI isn't even triggered by the railway companies actually releasing information.

I do fear that we will see a cull of good value unregulated fares this time round, under the banner of simplification. Then add in a few more evening restrictions for good measure. I hope I am wrong but this year’s increase is bound to have the hallmarks of the DfT and the Treasury stamped all over it.

Delaying the release of information to 1 March removes any opportunity to complain about any 'corrections' made to fares as once implemented nothing can really be done.

 

[Starmill]

Using average annual CPI(H) would be a more sensible solution, rather than taking one month's RPI figure.

 

[JamesT]

Using average annual CPI(H) would be a more sensible solution, rather than taking one month's RPI figure.

It is essentially an annual figure. The 'July RPI' is the comparison of RPI with the previous July. As long as you're consistent with your month then you'll capture inflation over time.
CPI(H) is now considered the gold standard inflation measure, but you'd presumably have to rewrite quite a few contracts that have RPI baked into them if you wanted to use that for governing ticket prices.

 

[Class800]

CPI(H) is now considered the gold standard inflation measure, but you'd presumably have to rewrite quite a few contracts that have RPI baked into them if you wanted to use that for governing ticket prices.

If the contracts state RPI then it will be RPI - it would have been more sensible to refer to 'the Bank of England's prevailing preferred measure of inflation' rather than mentioning one

 

[Haywain]

If the contracts state RPI then it will be RPI - it would have been more sensible to refer to 'the Bank of England's prevailing preferred measure of inflation' rather than mentioning one

If the DfT says do something different you can be assured that something different will be done.

 

[Watershed]

It is essentially an annual figure. The 'July RPI' is the comparison of RPI with the previous July. As long as you're consistent with your month then you'll capture inflation over time.
CPI(H) is now considered the gold standard inflation measure, but you'd presumably have to rewrite quite a few contracts that have RPI baked into them if you wanted to use that for governing ticket prices.

It's got nothing to do with rewriting contracts (and if that was the issue, the DfT have had every opportunity to do so during Covid).

It's done that way because RPI just so happens to be a few percentage points higher than CPI or CPI(H). Over time that makes a big difference, and it's essentially one of the reasons why regulated fares are 20-40% higher in real terms than they were at privatisation, despite being ostensibly inflation linked.

Using RPI therefore provides the DfT with cover for implementing an above inflation increase - even though they're using a totally inaccurate and discredited measure of inflation.

 

[Starmill]

It's got nothing to do with rewriting contracts (and if that was the issue, the DfT have had every opportunity to do so during Covid).

It's done that way because RPI just so happens to be a few percentage points higher than CPI or CPI(H). Over time that makes a big difference, and it's essentially one of the reasons why regulated fares are 20-40% higher in real terms than they were at privatisation, despite being ostensibly inflation linked.

Using RPI therefore provides the DfT with cover for implementing an above inflation increase - even though they're using a totally inaccurate and discredited measure of inflation.

Indeed. Successive governments have tried to hide behind a veneer of economic credibility by uprating revenues with RPI and expenditures with CPI. It is deeply wrong. Fortunately the option will be closed by decade's end when RPI is retired, long overdue.

 

[miklcct]

I have bought nearly £100 worth of train tickets for travel in the coming weeks, mostly flexible tickets, including a bunch of loophole tickets for cheap travel in Hampshire / Surrey which I have generated itineraries on Trainsplit as well. I hope I can work out the car sharing arrangement with my teammates for races in late March and April (they involve places where public transport doesn't run at all on a Sunday) before the end of this month as well.

 

[skyhigh]

And of course this is causing issues with the variety of systems and management of them. One TOC - the ticket office is selling fares for travel at March at the current rate. The TVMs and website are selling fares for March at the new price (rather than at the current price for any date until after 01/03).

 

[Haywain]

And of course this is causing issues with the variety of systems and management of them. One TOC - the ticket office is selling fares for travel at March at the current rate. The TVMs and website are selling fares for March at the new price (rather than at the current price for any date until after 01/03).

All systems should be selling fares for future travel at current rates, and any that are not reflect a failure on the part of suppliers.

 

[furgus2]

Are prices of Rover and Ranger tickets due to increase on the 1st?

 

[JonathanH]

Are prices of Rover and Ranger tickets due to increase on the 1st?

Yes, if that is the particular fares round in which the tickets are usually increased. They aren't regulated so could increase in May or September as well or by more than 3.8% if the operator thinks they are underpriced.

 

[robbeech]

Yes, if that is the particular fares round in which the tickets are usually increased. They aren't regulated so could increase in May or September as well or by more than 3.8% if the operator thinks they are underpriced.

Like the Anglia one that went up by 26%