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Manchester Piccadilly - Glossop service cancellations - what's going on?

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alanbur

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I've been tracking the cancellations on the Manchester Piccadilly - Glossop line for the last month and the number of "A short-notice change to the timetable" cancellations seems completely disproportionate when compared to the rest of the Northern network, not to mention the overall number cancellations on that line - at one point this month the it was the most cancelled Northern service. Anyone have any idea what Northern are playing at? I'm not a rail buff, so it's all a mystery to me...

Screenshot_2025-01-20_10-46-57.pngScreenshot_2025-01-20_10-47-42.pngScreenshot_2025-01-20_10-48-09.png
 
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Horizon22

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alanbur

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Welcome to the forum. This practice is the very poor usage of "PG" or "P-coding" services, whereby at Northern's request to Network Rail they can "pre-cancel" trains before 2200 the day before. The reason for this is normally crew-related reasons.

There is some context in a previous thread from 2023 here - https://www.railforums.co.uk/threads/orr-press-release-late-notice-cancellations.242221/

Ah, thanks - I'd found some other related threads but not that one.

I'm no expert but it appears to me that Northern are using P-coding on the Glossop line as a standard "service management" tool. There seem to be services that they know well in advance they can't run due to staffing issues as they are cancelled day-after-day, but rather than amending the timetable, they just P-code them daily. Are there reasons why they'd be doing that, e.g. they are obligated to run a standard number of trains, but P-coded ones are below the statistics radar and/or they don't get penalised for doing it? Is that because they don't have enough crew qualified on the Class 323?

If the ORR called this out in 2023, why on earth are Northern still doing this? And why so disproportionately on this one line? I found the ORR's P-coded page which shows that Northern are still pretty much the worst offender in overall terms, but the Glossop line is the worst within Northern by some margin.

As a commuter station with the 2nd highest number of journeys in Derbyshire its a mystery as to why the service is subject to quite so many disruptions. The line is one of the first two Andy Burnham has targetted for bringing into the Bee network, our buses already have been. But I'm not particularly optimistic that's going to improve things much, I assume it will still be Northern running it.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Also, the vast majority of P-codes are created between 3am and 4 am, I though they were supposed to do it by 10pm the night before?overall.pngpcodes.png
 
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Geeves

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You could combine "short notice change" and "member of traincrew unavailable" into one horrendous bar. They are one and the same
 

alanbur

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You could combine "short notice change" and "member of traincrew unavailable" into one horrendous bar. They are one and the same
Indeed, which begs the question why they sometimes use one, and sometimes the other...

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Seems they also do most of their p-coding between 3:00 and 4:00, not before 22:00 as I thought they were supposed to.
 
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Indeed, which begs the question why they sometimes use one, and sometimes the other...

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Seems they also do most of their p-coding between 3:00 and 4:00, not before 22:00 as I thought they were supposed to. I posted some charts earlier but it's stuck in the mod queue and I don't want to double-post.

The alterations to the timetable have to be submitted to Network Rail before 22:00. When they process them however is up to them. Often after the CIF download which occurs approx 0300/0400.
 

Elecman

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The alterations to the timetable have to be submitted to Network Rail before 22:00. When they process them however is up to them. Often after the CIF download which occurs approx 0300/0400.
Then those late cancellation don’t disallow Delay Repay as the timetable of the day is that downloaded to NR at 22.00 the previous night
 

alanbur

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The alterations to the timetable have to be submitted to Network Rail before 22:00. When they process them however is up to them. Often after the CIF download which occurs approx 0300/0400.
I'm using the latest "Last updated" timestamp from https://www.journeycheck.com/northern. According to the site:
The 'Line' and 'Service' Problems are fed directly from the Northern Control Room, where decisions on current train running are made and using Nexus Alpha's own systems. It is thus the most up to date information available about the train service.
I don't know if that means the journeycheck data is "upstream" of what they submit to NetworkRail, and of course it's possible the notices appear on journeycheck before the 10pm cutoff but are then updated again at ~3am, dunno. But if the purpose of the 10pm cutoff is to give passengers advance notice, I haven't noticed that actually happening.
 
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Horizon22

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I'm using the latest "Last updated" timestamp from https://www.journeycheck.com/northern. According to the site:

I don't know if that means the journeycheck data is "upstream" of what they submit to NetworkRail, and of course it's possible the notices appear on journeycheck before the 10pm cutoff but are then updated again at ~3am, dunno. Bbut if the purpose of the 10pm cutoff is to give passengers advance notice, I haven't noticed that actually happening.

Submitting the list to Network Rail so they are removed from the timetable, and the services being cancelled/removed from the CIS are two separate processes.

I personally am not sure of where the 2200 timing has historically come from although someone will probably be along soon enough to tell us why!
 

Tramfan

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Indeed, which begs the question why they sometimes use one, and sometimes the other...

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Seems they also do most of their p-coding between 3:00 and 4:00, not before 22:00 as I thought they were supposed to. I posted some charts earlier but it's stuck in the mod queue and I don't want to double-post.
Possibly the difference being that the P-Coded ones are the ones that are already known not to be covered the night before, whereas the "traincrew unavailable" is used for on-the-day shortages etc?
 

alanbur

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From https://www.orr.gov.uk/sites/defaul...hortage-pre-cancellations-toc-md-letter_0.pdf
The act of changing the timetable at late notice is covered by the Network Code and Railway Operational Code provisions on “Emergency Timetables”. ORR recognises that the Delay Attribution Board’s “Delay Attribution Principles & Rules” (DAPR) currently allows any train service cancelled before 22:00 the previous night – for any reason - to be removed from the “Applicable Timetable” for that day,
by marking the service with a “P*-code” (normally “PG”). This stands for “Planned Cancellation”.

This mechanism exists to cater for large-scale issues such as incoming severe weather or major infrastructure damage – or other causes that require whole-scale amendment or replacement of a planned timetable for a given day (or period of the day). We are not seeking to amend these established provisions. As mentioned above, we have become aware that this “P*-coding” has been increasingly used over the past year to remove or cancel specific trains from the planned timetable that cannot be operated due to a shortage of traincrew or suitable rolling stock. These service changes are confirmed within 24/48/72 hours of the timetabled service and trains are removed from the operational plan, ahead of the finalisation of the Applicable Timetable at 22:00 the day before.

These cancellations are reactive to a resource availability shortage. ORR’s view is that such late-notice amendments should not be considered an “Emergency Timetable” and so should not lead to a late change to the Applicable Timetable.
From the Delay Attribution Board's DELAY ATTRIBUTION PRINCIPLES AND RULES
If the passenger train operator cancellation is part of a plan agreed by the Parties prior to 22.00 the previous day then application of a P Code is permissible (see DAPR L1.5)
It seems that Northern are applying P codes after the 22:00 cutoff, so doesn't that mean they are breaching the rules?

As someone coming in new to all this I'm staggered at
  1. How overly bureaucratic the whole thing is (the DAPR rules are 213 pages long).
  2. How the regulators seem to be more focussed on the bureaucracy than on making sure passengers don't get stiffed by the TOCs.
  3. How adept and blatant the TOCs are at gaming the system.
  4. How nobody responsible for management and oversight seems to give a damn.
Or am I off base?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

Possibly the difference being that the P-Coded ones are the ones that are already known not to be covered the night before, whereas the "traincrew unavailable" is used for on-the-day shortages etc?
A plausible theory, but that doesn't seem to be what's happening in practice?

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

I haven't got proper hosting set up for it so I don't want to post a full URL, bot you can find what I've thrown together (with punctuation in the appropriate places) at http northernfail bleaklow com. Please be gentle!

What I'm still looking for is a source of Northern's daily schedule that doesn't involve querying every station & time period one by one, the realtimetrains API for example doesn't seem to cut it.
 
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