Manchester - Blackpool & Scotland TPEx Changes

[edwin_m]

FTPE have got the extra rolling stock because they need it to run the extra services. Northern have not got the extra rolling stock they need even though they too are going to be running extra services. Is there any particular reason for this?

Because Northern will be getting lots of extra rolling stock when 319s are displaced? A bit later than we would all have liked I'm sure, but a lot better than nothing.
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Don't forget also that TPE were knocked back on extra rolling stock a few years ago, in the form of the fourth car for the 185s.

 

[northwichcat]

Don't forget also that TPE were knocked back on extra rolling stock a few years ago, in the form of the fourth car for the 185s.

And then Northern, FGW and TPE were all supposed to get extra new carriages by December 2012.

 

[Darren R]

Because Northern will be getting lots of extra rolling stock when 319s are displaced? A bit later than we would all have liked I'm sure, but a lot better than nothing.
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Don't forget also that TPE were knocked back on extra rolling stock a few years ago, in the form of the fourth car for the 185s.

My question was more of a rhetorical point really (should've made that clearer!) But your answer is interesting nonetheless - we are basically being promised butter tomorrow (not even jam), but as you say, that's better than nothing. And let's face it, the fact that the DfT screwed up on FTPE's rolling stock too isn't that much of a consolation in the meantime!

 

[47802]

Well essentially this all boils down to the reluctance to buy new diesel stock and the northern electrification scheme's being justified on using second hand stock and the procrastination over the new Thameslink order, and of course the timescale for getting the electrification work done.

OK while there might be lots of electrification in the pipeline, clearly there will still be large parts of the network that wont be electrified for a very long time if ever, so your not telling me that the order for an additional 200 diesel carriages which was cancelled could not have found a home, given the large first gen diesel fleet that still exists which is now around 25 years old and the ever increasing demand for more capacity.

Of course you could ease some of these problems by hiring loco hauled stock but that expensive and if some clapped out 1 gen diesel used probably not very reliable, clearly northern are not likely to pay the extra cost so its not going to happen unless such as the DFT pays for it.

 

[tbtc]

Well essentially this all boils down to the reluctance to buy new diesel stock and the northern electrification scheme's being justified on using second hand stock and the procrastination over the new Thameslink order, and of course the timescale for getting the electrification work done.

OK while there might be lots of electrification in the pipeline, clearly there will still be large parts of the network that wont be electrified for a very long time if ever, so your not telling me that the order for an additional 200 diesel carriages which was cancelled could not have found a home, given the large first gen diesel fleet that still exists which is now around 25 years old and the ever increasing demand for more capacity.

Of course you could ease some of these problems by hiring loco hauled stock but that expensive and if some clapped out 1 gen diesel used probably not very reliable, clearly northern are not likely to pay the extra cost so its not going to happen unless such as the DFT pays for it.

There are a couple of 121s in use with Chiltern (I think ATW finished with theirs).

Or are you referring to the 1980s DMUs (which certainly aren't "first generation")?

 

[47802]

There are a couple of 121s in use with Chiltern (I think ATW finished with theirs).

Or are you referring to the 1980s DMUs (which certainly aren't "first generation")?

Sorry I will rephrase it to make more sense.

OK while there might be lots of electrification in the pipeline, clearly there will still be large parts of the network that wont be electrified for a very long time if ever, so your not telling me that the order for an additional 200 diesel carriages which was cancelled could not have found a home, given the large 1980's diesel railbus/sprinter fleet that still exists which is now around 25 years old and the ever increasing demand for more capacity.

Of course you could ease some of these problems by hiring loco hauled stock but thats expensive and if some clapped out 1 gen diesel Loco's used ie. class 47, probably not very reliable, clearly northern are not likely to pay the extra cost so its not going to happen unless such as the DFT pays for it.

 

[swt_passenger]

Sorry I will rephrase it to make more sense.

OK while there might be lots of electrification in the pipeline, clearly there will still be large parts of the network that wont be electrified for a very long time if ever, so your not telling me that the order for an additional 200 diesel carriages which was cancelled could not have found a home, given the large 1980's diesel railbus/sprinter fleet that still exists which is now around 25 years old and the ever increasing demand for more capacity.

ATOC don't think any additional DMUs are needed at the moment, but some may be needed later; as long as the electrification plans continue. There was quite a detailed rolling stock strategy report published in February this year, which possibly contains far too much detail to paraphrase...

http://www.atoc.org/clientfiles/files/Rolling Stock Strategy February 2013 - Final 11022013.pdf

Table 4 on page 13 sums up the totals of different train types, they expect the number of DMU vehicles required to be roughly half current numbers in 10 years, and about a third in 15 years. That's probably when they'll need to start looking at replacements for the newest of the DMUs that are currently in service.

 

[WatcherZero]

Midday TPE service to Manchester from Wigan, standing on arrival at Wigan. quarter past four Barrow service, standing from Man Pic. Even when the current Seasonal loads quieten down its looking like in the offpeak lone four car units wont provide enough capacity well before the end of the decade. They really had better get their skates on thinking about future TPE rolling stock and more capacity for the West Coast services.

Can confirm the earlier observation of it crawling over the junctions, feels like theyve not sorted out the signalling to allow the curve to be taken at speed whilst still protecting the Liverpool/West Coast services from conflicts. Ride quality itself was good as was the speed for the WCML and Eccles stretches upto approaching Oxford Road.

 

[47802]

ATOC don't think any additional DMUs are needed at the moment, but some may be needed later; as long as the electrification plans continue. There was quite a detailed rolling stock strategy report published in February this year, which possibly contains far too much detail to paraphrase...

http://www.atoc.org/clientfiles/files/Rolling Stock Strategy February 2013 - Final 11022013.pdf

Table 4 on page 13 sums up the totals of different train types, they expect the number of DMU vehicles required to be roughly half current numbers in 10 years, and about a third in 15 years. That's probably when they'll need to start looking at replacements for the newest of the DMUs that are currently in service.

Well clearly that's the view taken however if the additional units had been built it would have done a number of things in my view.

1. Ease the current chronic DMU shortage.

2. Enable some Railbuses to be binned earlier and improve the quality of rail travel.

3. Reduce the number of 1 gen sprinters still required in 10 years time.

4. Possibly easier to build units with underfloor mounted engines now than in 10 to 15 years time, ok other alternates such battery/electrics might be more viable by then

 

[Des Iroman]

Can confirm the earlier observation of it crawling over the junctions, feels like theyve not sorted out the signalling to allow the curve to be taken at speed whilst still protecting the Liverpool/West Coast services from conflicts. Ride quality itself was good as was the speed for the WCML and Eccles stretches upto approaching Oxford Road.

If you mean Parkside - Golborne, line speed is only 20mph throughout.

 

[tbtc]

Well clearly that's the view taken however if the additional units had been built it would have done a number of things in my view.

1. Ease the current chronic DMU shortage.

2. Enable some Railbuses to be binned earlier and improve the quality of rail travel.

3. Reduce the number of 1 gen sprinters still required in 10 years time.

4. Possibly easier to build units with underfloor mounted engines now than in 10 to 15 years time, ok other alternates such battery/electrics might be more viable by then

It looks like there won't be much "DMU shortage" in around ten years time - we could have withdrawn a few hundred DMUs by say 2024. The numbers of "modern" DMUs like 170s, 172s may even be enough by then to withdraw most/all 1980s DMUs.

That means that any newbuild DMUs may only be required for ten years - hard to justify building when there's going to be a surplus of them after only around a third of their expected "life".

 

[47802]

It looks like there won't be much "DMU shortage" in around ten years time - we could have withdrawn a few hundred DMUs by say 2024. The numbers of "modern" DMUs like 170s, 172s may even be enough by then to withdraw most/all 1980s DMUs.

That means that any newbuild DMUs may only be required for ten years - hard to justify building when there's going to be a surplus of them after only around a third of their expected "life".

I think that's debatable to be honest and even a lot of the 170's/175's will be around 25 years old by then, anyway we are stuck with that decision in the short term.

 

[edwin_m]

I also think there will be a need for DMUs in about 10 years time, assuming bionic duckweed or some other form of self-propulsion hasn't been perfected by then. In the meantime there will be a delicate balancing act between the rate of electrification and the demand for more trains on non-electrified routes.

The DMU demand can't really be controlled and the electrification programme is a fairly blunt instrument for managing DMU availability, with a lag of five years or so and some uncertainty around how long electrification takes to deliver. Hence it will be difficult to make them match and there are likely to be more Tod/Bolton type situations in the future.

I suspect the most rational way of meeting it will be a convertable design, probably a DEMU with modular power sources so a transformer can be fitted in place of a diesel engine and perhaps even operate as a dual mode. IEP has some similarities to this concept, albeit aimed at the high speed long distance market whereas a DMU replacement would be regional/suburban.

 

[Philip]

Are Virgin still planning to extend one of the Euston-Manchester trains to Bolton as was outlined in the new franchise agreement? I've not heard anything of it since so just wondered. I'm guessing it won't happen until the Bolton line is electrified, but are we talking a couple of trains a day at peak time or an hourly service extended from Piccadilly?

Another possible idea would be to extend the Arriva from South Wales to Bolton, depending on paths and whether there will be enough units to cover this. In effect is this idea really anymore outrageous than extending a Euston service?

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

If you mean Parkside - Golborne, line speed is only 20mph throughout.

15mph Lowton Jn-Golborne Jn unless they've improved it recently.

 

[Des Iroman]

15mph Lowton Jn-Golborne Jn unless they've improved it recently.

They have indeed - the short single chord from the main line to the Up & Down Lowton was the only bit that was 15mph (not both lines as far as Lowton Jn) but was increased to 20mph earlier this year.

 

[WatcherZero]

Are Virgin still planning to extend one of the Euston-Manchester trains to Bolton as was outlined in the new franchise agreement? I've not heard anything of it since so just wondered. I'm guessing it won't happen until the Bolton line is electrified, but are we talking a couple of trains a day at peak time or an hourly service extended from Piccadilly?

Another possible idea would be to extend the Arriva from South Wales to Bolton, depending on paths and whether there will be enough units to cover this. In effect is this idea really anymore outrageous than extending a Euston service?

Would have used the Voyagers not Pendolinos so didnt have to wait for electrification, not heard anything about it since they were told there wernt any paths for new West Coast services.

 

[northwichcat]

Would have used the Voyagers not Pendolinos so didnt have to wait for electrification, not heard anything about it since they were told there wernt any paths for new West Coast services.

I doubt any extension or additional service could run through Manchester between 07:00 and 09:30 or between 16:00 and 18:30 given the very few remaining paths seem to have been allocated to TPE. Virgin did object to the revised TPE track access application for new services saying that it shouldn't be allowed ahead of the West Coast franchise operator putting in the next recast.

 

[Francis]

To be honest, I was on the 1146 BPN service from Piccadilly yesterday...

AND I watched the 1846 and 2046 services go, they were all a similar story. I think all those intending managed to get on, but my own journey was incredibly uncomfortable! The thing is, its just surprising how many people get off at Bolton! Walk out the front of the station and turn right down past Morrisons and you wouldn't see why anyone would want to live there.

In defence of Bolton (though I don't live there). Its food market was voted the best in the country last year, beating even Oxford. We knew it was good, but a bit surprising to win top place! So maybe all those folks are going to the market!

 

[thealexweb]

Would have used the Voyagers not Pendolinos so didnt have to wait for electrification, not heard anything about it since they were told there wernt any paths for new West Coast services.

The last I heard Virgin has promised to offer one or two services from Bolton to London per day by 2016. So by that if they meant December 2016 electrification will be complete for the timetable revision.

 

[WatcherZero]

Virgin had a proposal using Voyagers that didnt require electrification that involved extending a London-Manchester Piccadilly service to Bolton where it would then run out of service to Blackpool to form a extended Preston-London return service and vice versa.

Your thinking of First's proposal that if they had won the WCML franchise they would Immediately have introduced a Blackpool service form 2013 and Bolton, Shrewsbury and Telford services from 2016 using a new fleet of eleven six car trains in addition to the Voyagers. Virgins franchise proposal was similar and involved ordering (30?) new trains for introduction a couple of years later than First, when the Voyagers went off lease (2017?) releasing the entire 221 fleet and operating a purely electric fleet.

 

[Philip]

Wouldn't be surprised if Manchester to Euxton electrification is delayed by a year because of the obstacles en route; Farnworth tunnel being the main one, possibly Chorley tunnel/arches as well?

So once electrification is complete and EMUs take over the Blackpool services, can we assume 185s will become extinct to these parts?

 

[thealexweb]

Wouldn't be surprised if Manchester to Euxton electrification is delayed by a year because of the obstacles en route; Farnworth tunnel being the main one, possibly Chorley tunnel/arches as well?

So once electrification is complete and EMUs take over the Blackpool services, can we assume 185s will become extinct to these parts?

Euxton to Lostock Junction work will be mostly done by mid-2014. The line will be completely shut for six weeks between these junctions with all services diverted via the Westhoughton -> Wigan North Western -> Preston route.

Farnworth tunnel will be more of a challenge as the work is expected to take six months and only one tunnel will be open at a time meaning only 6tph can run between Salford Crescent and Bolton. It will commence late 2014 apparently.

 

[Philip]

Euxton to Lostock Junction work will be mostly done by mid-2014. The line will be completely shut for six weeks between these junctions with all services diverted via the Westhoughton -> Wigan North Western -> Preston route.

Farnworth tunnel will be more of a challenge as the work is expected to take six months and only one tunnel will be open at a time meaning only 6tph can run between Salford Crescent and Bolton. It will commence late 2014 apparently.

Any idea which services will remain as trains during the Farnworth tunnel work?

 

[Nym]

Any idea which services will remain as trains during the Farnworth tunnel work?

My assumption has been a timetable re-write for this time; with paths being picked up at Salford Crescent and much longer than normal trains being ran.

So my working out is pretty much;

Southports all run via Atherton

The remaining ones would likely see the Preston - Hazel Grove runs retained and a Preston - Victoria run with one through from Wigan Wallgate, and an additional Wallgate - Bolton shuttle with the services from Blackburn terminating at Bolton.

 

[Philip]

My assumption has been a timetable re-write for this time; with paths being picked up at Salford Crescent and much longer than normal trains being ran.

So my working out is pretty much;

Southports all run via Atherton

The remaining ones would likely see the Preston - Hazel Grove runs retained and a Preston - Victoria run with one through from Wigan Wallgate, and an additional Wallgate - Bolton shuttle with the services from Blackburn terminating at Bolton.

TPE Blackpool-Airport services possibly diverted via Wigan and Chat Moss as well?

 

[thealexweb]

Any idea which services will remain as trains during the Farnworth tunnel work?

Logic suggests the following:

Manchester Airport to Blackpool North and its return journey would take a slot each. Running in six-car formation for each journey.

Rochdale / Manchester Victoria to Clitheroe and its return journey would take a slot each. Double Class 156s will make best use of the slot as its the maximum platforms beyond Blackburn can cope with and I'm not sure if Class 158s have permission between Bolton and Blackburn.

Hazel Grove / Manchester to Southport and its return journey would take the final two slots. Double Class 158s to make maximum use. This meet seem overkill but is essential given that there is usually 3tph between Wigan and Manchester via Bolton.

Additional services could terminate at Bolton and Salford Crescent and be supported by rail replacement buses.
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TPE Blackpool-Airport services possibly diverted via Wigan and Chat Moss as well?

That's unlikely as this is the heaviest used service it would be preserved at all costs at the expense of lesser services.

 

[Nym]

I'd rather see services terminating from Blackburn at Bolton and a six car formation being run to be honest...

 

[YorkshireBear]

I would not be surprised to see NW electrification Bolton and Blackpool both scaled back after they were too ambitious with the money they had available.

 

[thealexweb]

I would not be surprised to see NW electrification Bolton and Blackpool both scaled back after they were too ambitious with the money they had available.

Aren't they running out of time to scale it back? A third of the Euxton to Castlehill electrification will be done this year.