Lumo Expansion - FirstGroup make further applications

[Oscar M]

Lumo only fares for the Stirling service have appeared in BRFares.

The return fares I've found from London:

Milton Keynes Central - £25 Off-Peak Return, £42 Anytime Return

Nuneaton - £50 Off-Peak Return, £120 Anytime Return

Crewe - £83 Off-Peak Return, £138 Anytime Return

Preston - £110 Off-Peak Return, £145 Anytime Return

Carlisle/Lockerbie - £150 Anytime Return

Motherwell/Whifflet/Greenfaulds - £180 Anytime Return

Larbert/Stirling - £190 Anytime Return

There are also single fares, including Advances. London to Stirling could go as low as £29.90.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Astonished that they're offering MKC<->EUS fares rather than doing pick up/set down at MKC. I might give it a go over that run though to see what I think of the units post refurb. Also astonished they are offering off peak walk up fares, though they aren't hugely cheaper than Avanti's, as that isn't really their usual model? The Euston-MKC Off Peak Return is fairly bargainous at present if staying more than one day, but once MKC is Ovalised that advantage will go as the singles will be based on the present day returns which are only 80p more expensive than the Lumo return.

Like the ECML the long distance Anytimes are well priced, though, at under half the Avanti fares.

For longer distance travel their luggage policy makes them a bit useless to me, though, so I can't see myself using them often other than just to try the service out.

 

[cactustwirly]

Astonished that they're offering MKC<->EUS fares rather than doing pick up/set down at MKC. I might give it a go over that run though to see what I think of the units post refurb. Also astonished they are offering off peak walk up fares, though they aren't hugely cheaper than Avanti's, as that isn't really their usual model? The Euston-MKC Off Peak Return is fairly bargainous at present if staying more than one day, but once MKC is Ovalised that advantage will go as the singles will be based on the present day returns which are only 80p more expensive than the Lumo return.

Like the ECML the long distance Anytimes are well priced, though, at under half the Avanti fares.

For longer distance travel their luggage policy makes them a bit useless to me, though, so I can't see myself using them often other than just to try the service out.

Why are you surprised?
This whole thing is about First Group retaining revenue streams post GBR
By offering Lumo only MKC - London tickets they are guaranteed 100% of revenue and a small slice of the MKC-EUS pie.
If they were pick up/set down only they'd get nothing

 

[Bletchleyite]

Why are you surprised?
This whole thing is about First Group retaining revenue streams post GBR
By offering Lumo only MKC - London tickets they are guaranteed 100% of revenue and a small slice of the MKC-EUS pie.
If they were pick up/set down only they'd get nothing

So you reckon it's designed to be in part a giant ORCATS raid, taking advantage of the fact that interavailable tickets are still fairly big in usage on the WCML, unlike the ECML? Interesting.

I can't see many people restricting themselves to Lumo's low frequency for MKC-EUS to use the dedicated fares though.

 

[cactustwirly]

So you reckon it's designed to be in part a giant ORCATS raid, taking advantage of the fact that interavailable tickets are still fairly big in usage on the WCML, unlike the ECML? Interesting.

I can't see many people restricting themselves to Lumo's low frequency for MKC-EUS to use the dedicated fares though.

Essentially yes, I don't think they anticipate a huge amount of people switching to Lumo, they only need a handful to make it financially worthwhile

 

[SeanM1997]

I see only 2 southbound and 4 northbound services call at Crewe. Its a shame more services haven't been able to call as Crewe - Preston is only hourly for most of the day, and extra services would really improve connectivity between East Lancashire and Wales / Midlands

 

[waverley47]

So you reckon it's designed to be in part a giant ORCATS raid, taking advantage of the fact that interavailable tickets are still fairly big in usage on the WCML, unlike the ECML? Interesting.

I can't see many people restricting themselves to Lumo's low frequency for MKC-EUS to use the dedicated fares though.

If it wasn't an ORCATS raid, and it was indeed focused on new journeys from the Central Belt to London as originally promised, then we'd be seeing cheap advanced tickets, and a similar setup to the east coast operations.

The fact that they're pricing an anytime return from Euston to Milton Keynes at eight pounds cheaper than the anytime day return valid on all operators shows that they're undercutting the existing tickets to attract customers. That's a blatantly ridiculous use of capacity on the southern WCML to fill up a five car diesel train with cheap tickets to Milton Keynes. As @cactustwirly says, it's about revenue post GBR, and a big old chunk of the ORCATS pie when the services start running.

The ECML operation is indeed itself a revenue raid, undercutting services. However, the fact that it's aimed at a different section of the market, for whom price is the only real determining factor, it will be attracting new customers, and they don't fill up with cheap tickets from Kings Cross to Stevenage, means that it's an acceptable use of capacity, regardless of whether or not you believe that it's an acceptable operation.

This operation will end up abstracting revenue on short trips from London to the Midlands, and I think that I can quite reasonably estimate that when they start, they'll be carting fresh air north of Preston. Six months down the line, when it beds in, we might see them asked to change to pick up/set down only south of Nuneaton, but I doubt it, and they'll be carting fresh air north of Preston for a while.

 

[DDB]

I was just wondering if there had been any news or developments on the Cardiff-York proposal? Does the recent announcements of class 22X moves mean there aren't any trains available or can Lumo internally cascade?
As I understood it the proposal was to use paths between Birmingham and York that CrossCountry keep failing to use. Is there any sign this has kicked the government to kick/allow CrossCountry to start using those paths again?

 

[Trainbike46]

I was just wondering if there had been any news or developments on the Cardiff-York proposal? Does the recent announcements of class 22X moves mean there aren't any trains available or can Lumo internally cascade?

As I understood it, Lumo was intending to internally cascade, but that is from my outsider view.

 

[JonathanH]

As I understood it the proposal was to use paths between Birmingham and York that CrossCountry keep failing to use. Is there any sign this has kicked the government to kick/allow CrossCountry to start using those paths again?

If you read the responses on the ORR website about the Newcastle to Brighton idea, which seeks to use those same paths, there is some kind of plan for CrossCountry to use them again, but they are also poor performing paths.

https://www.orr.gov.uk/sites/default/files/2026-01/gcrc-newcastle-brighton-industry-consultation-responses.pdf

The Department for Transport state that:

The Department notes that for the majority of its journey the paths that Grand Central are
seeking are those that have been part of CrossCountry’s actual/contracted service pattern
since it was restructured in 2008, a restructuring that included removal of extensions to
Brighton in part due to their performance risk.

In a letter from Eddie Muraszko to Louise Beilby of ORR dated 19th February 2024 (copied
to Lawrence Bowman and Henry Bates at Network Rail), the Department explained in
detail that CrossCountry’s access rights to operate those paths had only lapsed because a
joint decision to phase the re-instatement of the services between May 2023 and May
2025 had also coincided with the end of CrossCountry’s Operating Contract Franchise
Agreement (OCFA) and the start of its National Rail Contract (NRC) in October 2023. (A
copy of the letter can be provided if required).

The letter also explained that the Department has always intended that more services
would be reinstated on this corridor and has funded additional rolling stock for
CrossCountry to achieve this aim – in particular so as to add badly-needed capacity
between Reading and Birmingham. CrossCountry has bid a December 2025 timetable to
deliver the next step on this journey and will seek further paths in May 2026, although
indications are that some of the paths now have conflicts with freight services.
For the avoidance of doubt, the Department is very aware that CrossCountry’s operational
performance and level of crowding in recent times has not been good enough, which is
why it has invested in a significant increase in fleet size (as soon as suitable trains became
available), resourcing levels and a full refurbishment of the train fleet. Further fleet
expansion is under consideration and the Department believes that under fresh leadership
the CrossCountry Operator is on the brink of becoming a significantly better operator for its
customers and it will be an integral part of a successful, integrated GBR operation,
connecting as it does across almost all Network Rail Routes.

We would also note that on corridors with high demand, such as Reading to Birmingham
and Birmingham to Yorkshire where there are limited paths and large numbers of
passengers travelling relatively short distances, allocating paths from CrossCountry’s
intended standard service pattern to an Open Access operator who will presumably have a
high proportion of ‘operator-only’ tickets will be likely to reduce customers’ options in the
event of delays to either operators’ services and add to customer dissatisfaction with the
complexity and fragmentation of railway services and ticketing. This impact would be
exacerbated in the event of any delay or cancellation of Grand Central services, as
resultant gaps between Open Access services would drive more passengers onto the
CrossCountry services and add to existing crowding issues.

EMR write

The proposal appears to predominantly utilise vacant CrossCountry’s (XC) Newcastle-Reading
service group paths where services have not fully returned post-COVID. However, former paths
through this area which were withdrawn pre-COVID were some of the poorest performing on the
national network and often "trigger trains" for delay. This was part of the reason for their
withdrawal by XC under the build back better/overlapping flows studies that have gone into the
thinking on the ECML ESG timetable. It is not clear from GC’s application if there was sufficient
recovery time in the schedules to mitigate the spread of delay.

Therefore, it seems somewhat unlikely that the paths will be available to Lumo.

 

[Snow1964]

I was just wondering if there had been any news or developments on the Cardiff-York proposal? Does the recent announcements of class 22X moves mean there aren't any trains available or can Lumo internally cascade?
As I understood it the proposal was to use paths between Birmingham and York that CrossCountry keep failing to use. Is there any sign this has kicked the government to kick/allow CrossCountry to start using those paths again?

The application to ORR is dated 28th October 2025, so approaching the 6 month point. There isn't a specific open duration date range that I am aware of, but if 5.5 months down the line another operator hasn't reacted and restored services, then do have to wonder if ORR will take any blocking of unused slots as a reasonable rejection criteria.

Regarding trains, Lumo announced 5 year maintenance contract (at Three Rivers) for 222s (guessing covering mid 2026 - mid 2031), and nothing to stop them cascading the trains between routes in 2-3 years time.

 

[JonathanH]

There isn't a specific open duration date range that I am aware of, but if 5.5 months down the line another operator hasn't reacted and restored services, then do have to wonder if ORR will take any blocking of unused slots as a reasonable rejection criteria.

The issue though is that three operators seem to be vying for the same paths, and the industry objections to an open access operator occupying them is fairly clear from information in the public domain.

 

[DDB]

Thanks for all the informative replies. I particularly enjoyed that DfT quote that claimed they funded extra trains "as soon as suitable rolling stock became avaliable" which doesn't seem to match how long they had been off lease!