Well, the answer has come back from my FOI request and it's a few days before the legal deadline. I must admit to being a little surprised at how low the figures are. The full response is
here, while the crucial figures for average daily caps are:
Code:
Zones Peak Off Peak
Z1-6 14 2983
Z2-6 11 496
inc Z7-9 13 688
What I think this is telling me is that for travel within the morning peak time just about everyone has the travelcard they require loaded onto their Oyster. I guess this isn't that surprising. For off-peak travel I think it means that far more people than I imagined are actually paying just what they need for their journeys. Given that many of these may well have bought travelcards before, just to be on the safe side, it is probably a vindication that the Oyster system is actually working very well.
I'm still cheesed off that the outer London cap is being withdrawn, but at least it is clear that the figures used in the justification weren't massively skewed by asking the wrong question. On the one hand, making several journeys outside the central zone may well cover longer mileages than the same number of journeys just within the two central zones; but on the other hand, trains will generally be emptier the further out from zone 1 you go so surely they should be encouraging use. I wonder if it's too late to suggest a compromise that the zone 2-6 travelcard should be increased to the same rate as the zone 1-2 version, or the zone 1-4 version. Thus what is currently £5.10 would rise to either £6.60 or £7.30 rather than £8.00?