London - Where is Everyone?

[bramling]

I nipped up for a couple of hours today - TLK to Blackfriars (south end) and walked to the Ian Allan shop at Blackfriars - 188 bus to Russel Square and thence to Dylans bookshop - back to St Pancras via Euston and train back at 1633.

Compared to say a month ago - a lot more people around , yes the weather was lovely and there was a lot of al-fresco lunching going on at the Waterloo area (the "Cut") had good business at the eateries and plenty of pedestrians around. I had a quick sit in the park at Bedford Square and it was busy , I suspect the university area will be back to normal in a few weeks -pretty much everything open shops and resturaunt wise.

Whilst the 188 bus was light on traffic , the trains were "as normal" for off peak (6 in the first class on a 700 , and they looked "legal") , the passing car parks were about 25-30% full at Mill Hill , Elstree and Radlett so it looks like there are some returning commuters. London is waking up a bit in Zone 1 (it was busier recently in the suburbs)

For those who worry about contamination - face mask compliance at 99% , you can count on one hand non wearers. (where they need to be worn)

I’d say the London suburbs are pretty much back to normal, albeit suburban rail travel (including Underground) usage is still light.

However it’s in the central area that things are still conspicuously dead, the city in particular. The return of office workers, especially those commuting in from outside London, is still just a trickle. The traditional 0800-0830 morning peak is still almost completely absent. My local station car park is still almost empty through the day.

I wonder if London is a little atypical in this respect due to the amount of office commuter types. By contrast a morning peak drive by car through towns in the south-east area now shows pretty much normal road traffic levels for school holidays IME.

There must also be a lot of tourists and students completely absent from London at the moment.

 

[parkender102]

We were in London last weekend from North Wales visiting my daughter who lives in Brixton. Decided to drive down rather than take the train ( I hate driving and we always used to travel to London by train) as it was in the long run a lot cheaper for the 4 of us to travel by car. The cheap train options involved lots of stoppers and 4-5 hours wearing a face covering.

Brixton and Clapham were very busy on Friday night with restaurants and bars full although not overcrowded. On Saturday morning Brixton was busy as usual and the family took the tube to Holland Park while I used a succession of Boris Bikes to cycle up there. The Japanese Garden and Dutch Gardens in Holland Park were busy and some Eastern European Tourists were taking pictures there. The Opera in Holland Park was in rehearsal for a socially distanced performance that evening. We took a walk / cycle along High Street Kensington, Hyde Park, St James Park and the South Bank and there were a lot of people about and the restaurant we dined at in Borough Market was full as were a lot of the other pubs and restaurants in the area. Buses were sometimes displaying 'Service Full' signs but we managed to get on one fine back to Brixton. Sunday we walked to Brockwell Park and Herne Hill for the Sunday Market and both were busy in a pleasant way.

We stayed at the Premier Inn Brixton in a family room and it was £79.00 for 2 nights - speaking to the staff there they told me they were 30% full so Bargains are to be had at the moment

The roads were very busy on Friday as we arrived around 16:00 but relatively quiet when we left London on Sunday mid afternoon.

 

[westv]

The other thing to consider is that offices may be open but "social distancing" may mean they won't be at full capacity.

 

[adc82140]

There was a report on the TV the other day from Oxford Street- something about Mike Ashley I think- and I was staggered at how few people there were in the background. It looked more like a provincial high street on a Sunday than Central London.

 

[Ianno87]

I wonder if London is a little atypical in this respect due to the amount of office commuter types.

Combined with many who have long and expensive journeys in.

 

[bramling]

Combined with many who have long and expensive journeys in.

Yes this is I think a very good point. Commuter journeys in the London area tend to be way longer than elsewhere. Friends from up north are always amazed that people commute from as far out as places like Northampton, Peterborough etc.

 

[Ianno87]

Yes this is I think a very good point. Commuter journeys in the London area tend to be way longer than elsewhere. Friends from up north are always amazed that people commute from as far out as places like Northampton, Peterborough etc.

I can imagine quite a number of folk whose wallets/purses/bank accounts have suddenly felt quite a bit heavier over the last few months.... (if you've previously been paying £5k upwards for an annual season ticket)

 

[Djgr]

And I can imagine large organisations wondering why they are paying so much rent for empty offices in Central London, when they could be based elsewhere, with lower rent and salary costs and much higher quality staff.

 

[westv]

Yes this is I think a very good point. Commuter journeys in the London area tend to be way longer than elsewhere. Friends from up north are always amazed that people commute from as far out as places like Northampton, Peterborough etc.

And even further out that that. Newark and Grantham for example.

 

[greyman42]

If you walk around The City during the week it resembles a Sunday. About 80% of the pubs are still shut.

 

[Mag_seven]

The area around Euston station was quite busy at about 14.30 today. I would say about 70-80% as busy as it would be at that time on a "pre-covid" Saturday.

 

[3rd rail land]

And I can imagine large organisations wondering why they are paying so much rent for empty offices in Central London, when they could be based elsewhere, with lower rent and salary costs and much higher quality staff.

Large organisations will probably review their office space usage and close down some sites and perhaps set up a smaller, cheaper, hub site in that area instead. That way they still have a place to have onsite team & customer meetings and those who would rather work from the office can still do so and the organisation is still able to make a significant cost saving.

I don't understand your comment about higher quality staff. How does having people based outside London result in higher quality staff?

 

[Hadders]

And I can imagine large organisations wondering why they are paying so much rent for empty offices in Central London, when they could be based elsewhere, with lower rent and salary costs and much higher quality staff.

London attracts top quality talent from across the world. Other provincial towns (while having their own pool of good staff) don't attract top talent in the same way.

 

[317 forever]

Seemed busy enough to me, obviously zero 'social distancing' going on Underground! (I even got asked by a passenger if I could move my bag off a seat next to me so they could sit down last week!)

I always personally find it fascinating I can be whizzing around on a Tube mid morning in 'the big smoke' then by late afternoon back in good old Yorkshire

Also if you want a hotel, Travelodge at the minute are very cheap compared to Premier Inn, at one point you were talking £35 a night at somewhere like Clapham Junction! I also just returned from Reading this weekend, £52.98 for 2 nights at the Travelodge there although in fairness that one is in some dire need of some TLC but having said that still a pefectly serviceable night's sleep

Furthermore, at least some Travelodge rooms are just £3 more for a flexible ie refundable rate than the non-refundable saver rate.

I had a tour of west London in July. I noticed the buses busier than the trains but still not packed.

 

[OneOffDave]

Traffic was fairly heavy in London yesterday. My last three miles to work took over an hour compared with the 10 minutes it has been taking. Knightsbridge was a lot busier than I've seen it for a while

 

[Reliablebeam]

Was in south west London today running errands and walking the Thames, and it was frankly buzzing. Quite nice to see - my Thames Valley town is ok but some folks heads would explode if they saw the lack of 2m spacing..... The suburbs have been like this for the last few weeks and were pretty lively even before the grand reopening as many pubs were flogging drink for take out - I started going in again from the about the end of may.

 

[birchesgreen]

I don't understand your comment about higher quality staff. How does having people based outside London result in higher quality staff?

If companies are ok with staff working remotely they can attract people who they would have missed out of before because not everyone is willing to relocate. My company has just hired a new senior manager who is working remotely from Kent and will just come up to Brum once or twice a month.

 

[johnnychips]

I was amazed how busy the Bull Ring centre in Brum was today at about 1400, and also the buses serving it. Unfortunately I have no idea what it is normally like.

 

[island]

I've been into central London a few times in the last few weeks. Areas like the Strand and the City have been very quiet as compared to six months ago. However, my local high street is more or less back to normal levels.

My theoretical answer to the OP's question as to where are people – a great many folks who used to work in the city centre are now working remotely; many other roles are less needed as they depend on the office workers who are much less evident in numbers. As for shoppers, large numbers are put off by Covid19 precautions, mask requirements, and pettifoggery of that sort. And of course, the theatres and entertainment venues are mostly closed, which also takes out a swathe of demand for restaurants and eateries.

 

[nlogax]

I walked from Waterloo to Euston yesterday mid morning via a pretty indirect route. Although central London on a Sunday morning isn't typically the busiest place I was still surprised by the lack of traffic and people. Extending the Congestion Charge to seven days a week was a daft idea, especially when some TOCs have been actively discouraging travel.

 

[Jamiescott1]

My train into Marylebone this morning was the busiest its been since mid March

 

[Mag_seven]

My train into Marylebone this morning was the busiest its been since mid March

Good to hear - hopefully due to commuters not being frightened of returning to work on public transport.

 

[Goldfish62]

I walked from Waterloo to Euston yesterday mid morning via a pretty indirect route. Although central London on a Sunday morning isn't typically the busiest place I was still surprised by the lack of traffic and people. Extending the Congestion Charge to seven days a week was a daft idea, especially when some TOCs have been actively discouraging travel.

Discouraging of travel was dropped in mid July.

 

[PTR 444]

I’ve been thinking of doing a day trip to London just to see how quiet it is. I know parts of the city are getting busier but my odds are on that the area around Bank is still a ghost town. Perfect for photo opportunities!

It’s a shame the Waterloo & City line isn’t running otherwise I would likely have an entire carriage to myself for once. I do wonder if it will ever reopen considering its sole purpose was to get commuters from Waterloo to their offices in Bank, most of which now work from home.

 

[johntea]

Furthermore, at least some Travelodge rooms are just £3 more for a flexible ie refundable rate than the non-refundable saver rate.

I had a tour of west London in July. I noticed the buses busier than the trains but still not packed.

Stayed in a Manchester Piccadilly Travelodge room on Sunday...it was £24.99 for a standard room or £26.99 for a ‘Super Room’, so I thought might as well try one of those out!

It’s got some nice little improvements over a regular room although I wouldn’t pay too much extra for it...a bit like upgrading to First Class on a train actually!

 

[greyman42]

I’ve been thinking of doing a day trip to London just to see how quiet it is. I know parts of the city are getting busier but my odds are on that the area around Bank is still a ghost town. Perfect for photo opportunities!

It is still a ghost town footfall wise but the roads are getting quite busy. There is very little open for business.

 

[Djgr]

It is still a ghost town footfall wise but the roads are getting quite busy. There is very little open for business.

If you go to the parts of London where the offices aren't then it's reasonably busy.

 

[telstarbox]

Main roads outside Zone 1 seem to be mostly as busy as before the lockdown now.

 

[ScottGallagher]

I live in Central London in the bloomsbury area and the hotel trade is practically non existent right now which ripples out to all the pubs cafes and shops which are at 10-20 percent footfall at best. Some big hotels through Southampton Row/Woburn Place closed until March 2021 at least.

 

[david1212]

Definitely hard times for a huge number of businesses based primarily on serving visitors and commuters and their employees and suppliers but regardless of what Boris & Co, Sadiq Khan and TfL would like from an economic perspective I do not see a big increase in numbers in Central London for at least six months.


Many leisure visits to London are centred around an event, short term exhibition or a stage performance. Travel to London is mostly by coach as part of a package or indepentantly by either NatEx or rail. Local travel is then the tube or bus. For many it is the only time they do not travel by car. While some regular museums, galleries etc. have reopened most require booking and may limit the visit time so there is limited incentive for a day trip or short break to these now.

Back in old normal times overall I wonder how often those living within the M25 or just beyond e.g. Hemel Hempstead, Slough, Windsor went to central London compared with those living around Leeds, Manchester etc visiting the city centre ? Could this at least partly explain why London has maintained a much lower level of Covid-19 infections ?

Added to this is a lack of international visitors.


For business the owners, directors and managers have numerous factors to consider against which to balance how well their business has been running for the last few months with employees working remotely. In no particular order
- how many can work in the space available while maintaining at least 2m distancing
- controlling distancing in pinch points e.g. kitchen / canteen and toilets
- managing enhanced cleaning and disinfection
- even if the building is only a few stories not a tower block managing access via lifts and stairways
- can there be a one way system ?
- disruption / inefficiency of staggered working hours
- air conditioning, heating and ventilation
- several staff if not a whole team becoming infected so unavailable, which is far less likely with remote working

Further the preferences of the staff not least the risks and changed arrangements for travel
- if Avanti, long distance GWR or LNER the need to book to be sure of being allowed on a train
- if other national / London Overground rail the risk of either trains being too busy for even 1m distance or queuing
- if not walking distance travel from the arrival station the use of central London tube and buses


Long term IMO while it would have happened gradually now I can not see the numbers who commuted long distance to then work mostly with a screen, keyboard and mouse ever returning. There are already many empty regional shops with no future and there will be more. The logical use is conversion to offices. A business could have permanent use of a complete building, a floor of a building or a suite or just rent desks as required.

Following on logically many central London office blocks will be converted to housing. Could there even be a reversal to commuting from the centre out to the suburbs to work ?