Lockdown effects now killing/harming more people than Covid

[VauxhallandI]

BBC news up to their usual scaremongering tonight on a piece about the NHS being under strain.

Stats highlighted were something like 5,000 flu cases in hospital then a totally irrelevant stat of 2m or so people with covid, adding that’s one in twenty two people.

Aye BBC but what have those covid numbers got to do with busy hospitals

They are a cancer on society, horrible self serving people.

 

[johnnychips]

I don’t know about anybody else, but there seem to be a lot of coughs, sneezes, colds, flu-like symptoms, sore throats and lord knows what else going about at the minute. Perhaps this is what happens in a normal winter, and we’ve forgotten; or perhaps people’s immune systems have been depleted because of the lockdowns.

Because of where I work, we have a lot of unused Covid tests lying around, which people can access, and a lot of people’s instinct, if they feel a bit off, is to grab one. So far, nobody has tested positive recently. But what if they were? I do think one positive thing to come out of this might be to stop people dragging themselves into work if they feel crap and giving everybody else what they’ve got - is it called ‘presenteeism’ or something - but otherwise we just need to get on with it as we always have.

 

[Harold Hill]

Figurers from Ohio suggest the more jabs the more infections, oddly

 

[yorksrob]

Figurers from Ohio suggest the more jabs the more infections, oddly

Is it the more jabs, the more deaths and serious illness. That's the question.

Given Ohio has moved back to normality, it would suggest not.

 

[MikeWM]

Is it the more jabs, the more deaths and serious illness. That's the question.

Given Ohio has moved back to normality, it would suggest not.

I don't think you can deduce much from that either way - by the end of last winter, pretty much everyone had been exposed to covid, and those who were going to get seriously ill or die had done so, and the rest of us didn't. All respiratory virus epidemics seem to only last 18-24 months, at most, before the virus becomes both endemic and weaker and/or most of the population has at least degree of immunity to it.

...which is why the continued excess deaths from other causes, mostly cardiovascular, are so troubling. As I've said a number of times before, you'd expect deaths to be below average for a while, as covid mostly killed people who were near the end of their life anyway, not still significantly above the average.

 

[bramling]

I don't think you can deduce much from that either way - by the end of last winter, pretty much everyone had been exposed to covid, and those who were going to get seriously ill or die had done so, and the rest of us didn't. All respiratory virus epidemics seem to only last 18-24 months, at most, before the virus becomes both endemic and weaker and/or most of the population has at least degree of immunity to it.

...which is why the continued excess deaths from other causes, mostly cardiovascular, are so troubling. As I've said a number of times before, you'd expect deaths to be below average for a while, as covid mostly killed people who were near the end of their life anyway, not still significantly above the average.

So what do we actually think is going on with the cardiovascular excess deaths?

* people weakened by Covid infection?
* something to do with the vaccines?
* lack of exercise during lockdown?(though surely this is too soon for that?)
* lack of access to health care over the last three years?
* poor access to GPs something which had already been progressively occurring pre 2020?
* poor performance of ambulance and/or A&E service?
* changes to routines during lockdown or Covid - eg people getting the bike out of the shed and suddenly exerting themselves for the first time in many years?
* something else going on that we don’t know about, possibly missed due to all the focus on Covid?
* a combination of some of the above?

 

[MikeWM]

So what do we actually think is going on with the cardiovascular excess deaths?

If we were to number your list from 1 to 9, I'd guess some of each of 1, 2, 4, 5 and 6, though I wouldn't want to hazard a guess at which proportion is which.

Some of these would be rather hard to establish, but a potential link with the covid vaccines could very easily be ruled out (or in) by releasing the vaccination status of those dying from cardiovascular disease in each age group and comparing that to the vaccination %s for each of those groups. Oddly enough, no-one seems to be interested in doing that though, despite the fact that we just had two years when it seemed everyone's vaccine status was everyone's business.

 

[bramling]

If we were to number your list from 1 to 9, I'd guess some of each of 1, 2, 4, 5 and 6, though I wouldn't want to hazard a guess at which proportion is which.

Some of these would be rather hard to establish, but a potential link with the covid vaccines could very easily be ruled out (or in) by releasing the vaccination status of those dying from cardiovascular disease in each age group and comparing that to the vaccination %s for each of those groups. Oddly enough, no-one seems to be interested in doing that though, despite the fact that we just had two years when it seemed everyone's vaccine status was everyone's business.

It’s all very interesting, as well as concerning. Of course it doesn’t help that media scrutiny is more interested in the Sussex family and Ukraine at the minute!

 

[MikeWM]

It’s all very interesting, as well as concerning. Of course it doesn’t help that media scrutiny is more interested in the Sussex family and Ukraine at the minute!

Though at least if they're wittering on about those things, they won't have as much time to witter on about trying to reintroduce masks...

I expect nothing positive from the mainstream/legacy media anymore, a sad but true state of affairs. I'm content with them talking about stuff as long as it is stuff that won't make our lives worse and that I can ignore, that's how little regard I have for them and how little I expect from them at this point.

Of course, it shouldn't be that way, a good independent media that questions power and does proper investigative journalism is vitally important for a free society. But we are where we are, unfortunately.

 

[DustyBin]

If we were to number your list from 1 to 9, I'd guess some of each of 1, 2, 4, 5 and 6, though I wouldn't want to hazard a guess at which proportion is which.

I think you’re probably right, although I wouldn’t be surprised if lockdown related health issues (excess weight, heavy drinking etc.) are contributing to some extent as well.

Some of these would be rather hard to establish, but a potential link with the covid vaccines could very easily be ruled out (or in) by releasing the vaccination status of those dying from cardiovascular disease in each age group and comparing that to the vaccination %s for each of those groups. Oddly enough, no-one seems to be interested in doing that though, despite the fact that we just had two years when it seemed everyone's vaccine status was everyone's business.

It wouldn’t be difficult would it. Of course I know there’s nothing to see, but they could at least humour us……

 

[bramling]

I think you’re probably right, although I wouldn’t be surprised if lockdown related health issues (excess weight, heavy drinking etc.) are contributing to some extent as well.

Interesting thought about extra drinking. I remember seeing a lot of multipacks being carried home from supermarkets and corner shops during the various lockdowns. As well as creating some new alcoholics the whole thing may well have exacerbated some pre-existing issues. In fact, come to think about it I can think of a couple in my arms-length circles.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Jan 2023 ==

Though at least if they're wittering on about those things, they won't have as much time to witter on about trying to reintroduce masks...

I expect nothing positive from the mainstream/legacy media anymore, a sad but true state of affairs. I'm content with them talking about stuff as long as it is stuff that won't make our lives worse and that I can ignore, that's how little regard I have for them and how little I expect from them at this point.

Of course, it shouldn't be that way, a good independent media that questions power and does proper investigative journalism is vitally important for a free society. But we are where we are, unfortunately.

This is a very depressing, but unfortunately realistic, outlook in my view. I can only reluctantly agree with all of the above. I guess there is one positive there which is the point about masks, though I do wonder how long it’s going to be before they start becoming a thing again. I guess we have to hope the current winter cold/flu seasons peaks soon.

 

[Bantamzen]

Figurers from Ohio suggest the more jabs the more infections, oddly

Its actually not that odd at all. Think about it, any vaccine is designed to trigger the immune system into reacting to it. So if you are having vaccine after vaccine, your immune system is constantly being challenged. And if each vaccine is a variant on the last, then this puts more pressure on the immune system. Throw in the various viruses and bacteria already out there and infecting people, then its really no surprise at all that having more vaccinations might cause people to be more likely to be unwell. And with the push of covid and flu boosters, its really not surprising at all that so many people are unwell.

That's not to say vaccines don't have their place, but constantly throwing them at our immune systems will have some detrimental effects.

 

[Tracked]

Figurers from Ohio suggest the more jabs the more infections, oddly

Perhaps a link to this info would be useful, could it just be a behavioural thing (personally I go out socialising more post-Lockdown and Vaccination than I did pre-Covid - though I've only had it once as far as I know - and I've heard a lot of people saying they're doing similar), along the lines of the one about car drivers giving cyclists wearing helmets less room on the road: https://www.bicycling.com/news/a25358099/drivers-give-helmet-cyclists-less-room/

 

[philosopher]

This is a very depressing, but unfortunately realistic, outlook in my view. I can only reluctantly agree with all of the above. I guess there is one positive there which is the point about masks, though I do wonder how long it’s going to be before they start becoming a thing again. I guess we have to hope the current winter cold/flu seasons peaks soon.

It is frustrating as just a couple of months ago, Covid seemed to be a thing of the past in terms of media and individuals talking about it. However in the last couple of months there has definitely been a resurgence in both media and individuals talking about Covid and I get the distinct impression that some want the return of restrictions or at least strong recommendations.

Now, I admit that there have been a lot of viral infections going round recently, which mostly appears not to be Covid, so to some extent people and the media talking about people getting ill would be expected. However if you had a similar situation pre 2020, people would have just put it as an annoying fact of life. Now though it seems many are making it out to be worse than it actually is and hinting that people should significantly change their behaviour.

I am not saying here that people should ignore all illnesses and I do think those who are unwell should work from home or take sick leave and postpone meeting friends and family until they are better. However I do not think people should be changing their behaviour or advocating others change their behaviour in an attempt to avoid picking up infections, particularly if they are healthy.

 

[DustyBin]

It is frustrating as just a couple of months ago, Covid seemed to be a thing of the past in terms of media and individuals talking about it. However in the last couple of months there has definitely been a resurgence in both media and individuals talking about Covid and I get the distinct impression that some want the return of restrictions or at least strong recommendations.

Now, I admit that there have been a lot of viral infections going round recently, which mostly appears not to be Covid, so to some extent people and the media talking about people getting ill would be expected. However if you had a similar situation pre 2020, people would have just put it as an annoying fact of life. Now though it seems many are making it out to be worse than it actually is and hinting that people should significantly change their behaviour.

I am not saying here that people should ignore all illnesses and I do think those who are unwell should work from home or take sick leave and postpone meeting friends and family until they are better. However I do not think people should be changing their behaviour or advocating others change their behaviour in an attempt to avoid picking up infections, particularly if they are healthy.

My thoughts exactly.

 

[greyman42]

It is frustrating as just a couple of months ago, Covid seemed to be a thing of the past in terms of media and individuals talking about it. However in the last couple of months there has definitely been a resurgence in both media and individuals talking about Covid and I get the distinct impression that some want the return of restrictions or at least strong recommendations.

Now, I admit that there have been a lot of viral infections going round recently, which mostly appears not to be Covid, so to some extent people and the media talking about people getting ill would be expected. However if you had a similar situation pre 2020, people would have just put it as an annoying fact of life. Now though it seems many are making it out to be worse than it actually is and hinting that people should significantly change their behaviour.

I am not saying here that people should ignore all illnesses and I do think those who are unwell should work from home or take sick leave and postpone meeting friends and family until they are better. However I do not think people should be changing their behaviour or advocating others change their behaviour in an attempt to avoid picking up infections, particularly if they are healthy.

It's just a vocal minority and MSM who would like to see a return of restrictions and masks. Normal people are living their lives as they did pre covid.

 

[bramling]

It's just a vocal minority and MSM who would like to see a return of restrictions and masks. Normal people are living their lives as they did pre covid.

The proof of that pudding will be how people react if there’s suddenly a “save the NHS” crusade again. I’m gently optimistic there won’t be as I don’t think the government would want to draw attention to the mess that’s going on there at the moment, but by the same token they may want to do it as a way of blaming everything on Covid.

It *is* depressing however that we’re now in the third winter of all this, and we still don’t quite seem to be able to shake the Covid cloud off.

 

[greyman42]

It *is* depressing however that we’re now in the third winter of all this, and we still don’t quite seem to be able to shake the Covid cloud off.

From my experiences, a large majority of people shook off the covid cloud long ago.

 

[Bikeman78]

I am not saying here that people should ignore all illnesses and I do think those who are unwell should work from home or take sick leave and postpone meeting friends and family until they are better. However I do not think people should be changing their behaviour or advocating others change their behaviour in an attempt to avoid picking up infections, particularly if they are healthy.

I think most people do that anyway. If I feel so rough that I can barely make it to the kitchen or the bathroom, there's no way I'm going to work or the pub. On the other hand, I'm not going to call in sick every time I get a cold, if I generally feel okay. In my office, there are loads of people coughing and sneezing at the moment. If they all called in sick, there would hardly be anyone left.

 

[bramling]

From my experiences, a large majority of people shook off the covid cloud long ago.

I think many people have done it to the maximum extent that they personally can control. However, I’ve just switched on the news, and straight away Covid. Meanwhile, since I was last at work, a pack of lateral flow tests and some masks have appeared in my in-tray. The attendance policy has also been changed such that people can now again take 5 days isolating without it affecting their attendance record (just as well this wasn’t in place over Xmas!). On top of all that, my GP surgery seems to have gone all obsessive over masks again, after a brief interlude when they didn’t seem too bothered.

What with all the other crap that is going on as a result of Covid - the inflation, the mess that is all the public services not least rail, the government now being reduced to a zombie one, and of course the tax rises, I don’t think any of us can really say the cloud has fully cleared.

 

[Eyersey468]

My thoughts exactly.

I also agree

 

[Stephen42]

I'm not an avid follower, however I'm aware of his opinions and the "evolution" thereof. I don't believe he woke up one morning and decided to don a tinfoil hat, so I find his content interesting and slightly concerning (as is the fact the debate can't be had openly).

I'd say that once you start thinking there is something untoward going on it's easy to default to thinking you've exposed something rather than ignoring other possible explanations. His latest video on Swindon data that I'm not going to link to is based on an incorrect freedom of information response (since corrected). Despite the numerous red flags he put out a video without questioning the data accuracy or asking the trust if they had any explanation for the huge increase. He heavily implied vaccinations might be response for part of the increase when in the correct data the incidence dropped after 2020 not increased. That's now had half a million of views, it will be interesting to see if he publicly corrects it and/or if it changes his research process.

I don’t know about anybody else, but there seem to be a lot of coughs, sneezes, colds, flu-like symptoms, sore throats and lord knows what else going about at the minute. Perhaps this is what happens in a normal winter, and we’ve forgotten; or perhaps people’s immune systems have been depleted because of the lockdowns.

Because of where I work, we have a lot of unused Covid tests lying around, which people can access, and a lot of people’s instinct, if they feel a bit off, is to grab one. So far, nobody has tested positive recently. But what if they were? I do think one positive thing to come out of this might be to stop people dragging themselves into work if they feel crap and giving everybody else what they’ve got - is it called ‘presenteeism’ or something - but otherwise we just need to get on with it as we always have.

This winter has been worse for flu in terms of 'general & acute' hospital admissions but about the same for ICU as the years immediately before the pandemic. Christmas makes the info less clear, early indications are it's a more sudden increase/fall than other years where it was spread over a longer period. This year there's also covid which is about 60% of flu beds in primary diagnosis terms. There were some worse years from 2010 onward than currently but I can't remember which ones off the top of my head.

So what do we actually think is going on with the cardiovascular excess deaths?

* people weakened by Covid infection?
* something to do with the vaccines?
* lack of exercise during lockdown?(though surely this is too soon for that?)
* lack of access to health care over the last three years?
* poor access to GPs something which had already been progressively occurring pre 2020?
* poor performance of ambulance and/or A&E service?
* changes to routines during lockdown or Covid - eg people getting the bike out of the shed and suddenly exerting themselves for the first time in many years?
* something else going on that we don’t know about, possibly missed due to all the focus on Covid?
* a combination of some of the above?

There's also difficulties in working out the expected level is. Covid means the five year method is 2016-2019 and 2021 which ignores population growth and changing age profile. The age standardised calculations are made more difficult by the covid changing the projected age profile as much migration than covid deaths. Ischaemic heart diseases (the leading underlying cause of death that's cardiovascular) are currently above average on the former and below on the latter.

Its actually not that odd at all. Think about it, any vaccine is designed to trigger the immune system into reacting to it. So if you are having vaccine after vaccine, your immune system is constantly being challenged. And if each vaccine is a variant on the last, then this puts more pressure on the immune system. Throw in the various viruses and bacteria already out there and infecting people, then its really no surprise at all that having more vaccinations might cause people to be more likely to be unwell. And with the push of covid and flu boosters, its really not surprising at all that so many people are unwell.

That's not to say vaccines don't have their place, but constantly throwing them at our immune systems will have some detrimental effects.

While that's possible it's also true that infections by number of vaccinations is difficult to compare. In many locations people are offered a different number of vaccinations based on risk factors, so the groups with more may have worse underlying health. There may also be differences in likelihood to seek a test or periodic testing between the various groups. The denominators for how many people are in each group can also be challenging depending on the population in question.

 

[DC1989]

You don't hear much about 5g towers causing covid anymore

 

[yorkie]

You don't hear much about 5g towers causing covid anymore

Such claims were made by such a tiny proportion of the population and they were widely ignored by pretty much everyone. I think the only place I ever saw/heard such claims was on one person's Facebook profile and they was it.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 8 Jan 2023 ==

This winter has been worse for flu in terms of 'general & acute' hospital admissions but about the same for ICU as the years immediately before the pandemic. Christmas makes the info less clear, early indications are it's a more sudden increase/fall than other years where it was spread over a longer period.

I got a very intense 'flu* infection in mid December; I felt more ill then I had done for many many years prior. However I shook off the fever within just a few days, so although it was very unpleasant it didn't last long.

From speaking to other people I have been surprised at how many also fell ill at a similar time to me.

I think that the high intensity of the current 'flu outbreak is due to a dip in our population immunity against 'flu in recent years, due to Covid displacing 'flu as well as the effects of lockdowns and other restrictions.

In contrast I hardly know anyone who has had Covid recently, though with mass testing now over, it's not easy to be sure. But several people who were ill said they did a test and it wasn't Covid, so likely to be 'flu. Also the latest Zoe study data has the latest 'wave' peaking at a relatively low level compared to previously.

(* I am assuming it was flu, based on the available evidence)

 

[greyman42]

Meanwhile, since I was last at work, a pack of lateral flow tests and some masks have appeared in my in-tray. The attendance policy has also been changed such that people can now again take 5 days isolating without it affecting their attendance record (just as well this wasn’t in place over Xmas!).

I work for a large multi national and they seem to of completely dropped covid. An absence due to covid (which no one seems to have) is treated the same as any other spell of absence.

 

[MikeWM]

Perhaps a link to this info would be useful, could it just be a behavioural thing

The paper can be found here

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2022.12.17.22283625v1.full

I suppose there may be some people out there who are both still scared of getting covid *and* haven't been vaccinated for some reason or other, but I strongly suspect that the vast majority of those still unvaccinated are those like myself who thought the whole thing was a massive overreaction, thought the vaccines failed to pass a benefit-risk ratio for their own personal case, and only changed behaviour to the extent that the law demanded it, and hence have been doing all the 'normal' things they would usually be doing for many months now.

A bigger problem with the study would appear to be that testing was voluntary, and it is quite plausible that those who decided not to get vaccinated also avoided doing tests for the same reasons. So that may be adding some bias to the results, in much the same way as the UKHSA data from last winter/spring was potentially biased by this factor.

--

I'd say that once you start thinking there is something untoward going on it's easy to default to thinking you've exposed something rather than ignoring other possible explanations. His latest video on Swindon data that I'm not going to link to is based on an incorrect freedom of information response (since corrected). Despite the numerous red flags he put out a video without questioning the data accuracy or asking the trust if they had any explanation for the huge increase. He heavily implied vaccinations might be response for part of the increase when in the correct data the incidence dropped after 2020 not increased. That's now had half a million of views, it will be interesting to see if he publicly corrects it and/or if it changes his research process.

He has issued a correction in his following video; I agree the wrong dataset seemed so extreme it demanded further corroboration before running with it.

100% agree that everyone always needs to be very careful about quickly trumpeting data that appears to confirm their position with giving it proper analysis, it is far too easy a trap to fall into, especially when you have 'the zeal of the converted'.

There's also difficulties in working out the expected level is. Covid means the five year method is 2016-2019 and 2021 which ignores population growth and changing age profile. The age standardised calculations are made more difficult by the covid changing the projected age profile as much migration than covid deaths.

Jamie Jenkins, formerly of the ONS, has been pointing the change in age demographics for some months, and issues his own figures that try to correct for that. That does reduce the excess deaths from the headline figure, but even on these modified figures there has still been a considerable amount every week for about 8 months now.

 

[scarby]

I expect nothing positive from the mainstream/legacy media anymore, a sad but true state of affairs. I'm content with them talking about stuff as long as it is stuff that won't make our lives worse and that I can ignore, that's how little regard I have for them and how little I expect from them at this point.

Of course, it shouldn't be that way, a good independent media that questions power and does proper investigative journalism is vitally important for a free society. But we are where we are, unfortunately.

The formula for a lot of "stories" is:

Need to write "story" about this week's "crisis".

Home on on something dramatic - big lone numbers with no context or analysis are great for this and the pandemic has provided them in spades.

Throw in a lot of alarmist / dramatic words and phrases with no substance behind them. Favourites include "unprecedented", "crisis", "sparked fears", "worries", "could lead to", "braced for", "world holds its breath" "scrambled to", "surge", "turbulent".

 

[Richard Scott]

Throw in a lot of alarmist / dramatic words and phrases with no substance behind them. Favourites include "unprecedented", "crisis", "sparked fears", "worries", "could lead to", "braced for", "world holds its breath" "scrambled to", "surge", "turbulent".

Don't forget "experts predict".

 

[MikeWM]

Don't forget "experts predict".

And indeed 'pressure is mounting' for someone to do something, usually the government. Where this supposed 'pressure' is entirely down to repeated articles in the media about that issue (see : masks, testing travellers from China, etc.)

Once upon a time the media questioned power, or at least maintained the illusion it did. Remember the ending of all those films from the 1970s and 1980s where the hero manages to get the evidence of bad things to someone at a newspaper, and we cut to the titles because we know that the truth will now come out and the baddies brought to account? You couldn't end your film like that nowadays, because too many people know the story would just be buried and nobody would be brought to account.

 

[stj]

During the 80s when I was working at ICI, due to cutbacks most staff over 50 took early retirement many of them died not long after.I believe we have a situation now where thousands of over 50s have given up work post Covid.So could be the cause?