Llanelli - Carmarthen/Clarbeston Road Linespeed Upgrade - Has this been considered?

[Rhydgaled]

Assuming I've got the correct radius, there is no curve between the Clarbeston Road and Whitland, or between Llanelli and a little while out north of Ferryside tight enough to prohibit a 90mph linespeed. So my questions are:

• Has there ever been a study / cost estimate for upgrading the linespeed from what it is now (75mph?) to 90mph?
• How much per-mile would such works cost? not just in this case, but in general also?

Not saying it is likely to happen, but I'd be interested to know how much these linespeed improvments would cost.

 

[TheWalrus]

No idea myself, but this is a question I would most like to see answered! I do like your thinking, similar to mine I imagine

 

[Pacerpilot]

I don't see what benefits the 90mph linespeed would bring though? Journey times wouldnt be significantly increased, especially now with more Manchester/Carmarthen/Milford services (the only services with 90mph stock diagrammed for them) calling at the Request stops. You barely hit 75mph between Llanelli and Pembrey either way before braking for the stations. Similarly for Kidwelly, if I had reached 90mph from Pembrey, which would be just about possible in a 175, I'd be shoving the brake in earlier.
Nor would it alleviate any capacity issues given the light traffic. Even more so West of carmarthen with two hourly services to both Pembroke dock and Milford.

 

[Bald Rick]

I could write a thesis on this but will spare you all and just do the abridged version.

There are over 90 (ninety) different infrastructure factors that affect the ruling linespeed of a route. Not all of the factors apply to all stretches of line - some relate to electrification or tunnels for example. However to raise the linespeed on any stretch of line, all the factors that do apply have to be checked and signed off by the appropriate engineer as within the applicable standards. If the relevant factor does not meet the standard then, usually, physical work must be done.

Some are straightforward and are 'tick box' exercises. Some are much more complicated. As an example every level crossing must have a new safety risk assessment at the higher speed, to include revised sighting times, addtional safety mitigation etc. Some of the work required can be expensive too - moving signals to improve sighting or provide the additional braking distance required for example.

The standards also vary by speed. Most factors are a direct function of speed and thus even a 5mph increase makes a dfference. Some other factors only change at specific limits - for example ABCL crossings are not permitted above 55mph; track maintenance standards change at 45mph 60mph, 75mph, 90mph and 100mph (I think, someone will correct me no doubt)

So for any particular stretch of line the cost will depend on the factors that would be affected, what you want to increase the linespeed to, and consequently how much physical work needs to be done.

Just doing the checks can take up significant lengths of engineers' time; and time=money, so someone has to pay. And where does the money come from?

As with all projects, the money comes from those who benefit. Train operators may see increases in revenue from faster servces, so can contribute a portion of that revenue that they would see for the rest of the franchise. However the majority of the benefit is to users in time saved per trip, and this time saving perperson is converted into £s using standard transport assessment criteria. Obviously the more passengers using a line the more benefit and thus the better the case for reducing the journey time.

Back to the original question. Has Llanelli-Clarbeston Road been looked at? I doubt it. The number of passengers who would benefit is just too small to justify even looking into it. Indeed with the extra fuel required to get the train up to 90mph, it might actually be a loss maker for the train operator.

 

[Greenback]

I agree that there is little point in improving line speed anywhere between llanelli and Clarbeston Road. Because of timetabling constraints elsewhere the result would be longer layover times in Carmarthen, Cardiff or Swansea. The market on these trains is not prticularly time sensitive, so a savin gof perhaps 3-4 minutes would not make a huge difference to passenger numbers.

 

[Rhydgaled]

The market on these trains is not prticularly time sensitive, so a saving of perhaps 3-4 minutes would not make a huge difference to passenger numbers.

Well, I expect the market is not time sensitive because for Carmarthen - Cardiff journeys it is so much faster by road at the moment, so all time sensitive pepole go by road. Hence I'm looking to address this issue to attract the time sensitive to rail as well.

Just doing the checks can take up significant lengths of engineers' time; and time=money, so someone has to pay. And where does the money come from?

I know the money has to come from somwhere. The reason I want to know how much it costs is so that I can look for somwhere that the money can come from, or whether it is so very expensive there's no point be bothering.

As some of you have said, with all the station stops on the current services it is not really viable to increase the linespeed, I'm thinking more about when the Gowerton bottleneck is sorted and there are enough trains to have some not call at the smaller stations. That would make a difference, I'm thinking along the lines of:

• 1tph Swansea - Whitland (class 150) calling at Gowerton, Llanelli, Pembrey & Bury Port, Kidwelly, Ferryside, Carmarthen, St Clears and Whitland extending to Milford Haven and Pembroke Dock in aternate hours calling at all-stations.
• 0.5tph Manchester - Carmarthen calling west of Cardiff Central at Bridgend, Port Talbot Parkway, Neath, Swansea, Gowerton, Llanelli, Pembrey & Bury Port and Carmarthen
• 0.5tph Manchester - Milford Haven calling west of Cardiff Central at Bridgend, Port Talbot Parkway, Neath, Swansea, Gowerton, Llanelli, Carmarthen, Whitland, Haverfordwest and Milford Haven.
• 0.5tph Cardiff Central - Fishguard Harbour calling at Bridgend, Llanelli, Carmarthen, Whitland, Wolfscastle, Fishguard & Goodwick and Fishguard Harbour (only certain services need continue to the harbour as all that's there is the ferry). This extra service uses the Swansea District Line, so does not have to wait for the re-doubling.

That makes 1tph running non-stop from Llanelli to Carmarthen and additionally one no stop every 2 hours between Pembrey & Burry Port and Carmarthen, also 1tph passing non-stop through Clunderwen.

 

[anthony263]

I know that if there is a regular service via th district line it is possible to cut journey times between Carmarthen & Cardiff from 1 hour 45 minutes to just 90 minutes which will enable the trains to compete more effectivly against the car

 

[tbtc]

I know that if there is a regular service via th district line it is possible to cut journey times between Carmarthen & Cardiff from 1 hour 45 minutes to just 90 minutes which will enable the trains to compete more effectivly against the car

A reduction of around 14% in journey time sounds good, but bear in mind it's at the expense of Carmarthen/Llanelli - Swansea and Swansea - Neath/ Port Talbot/ Cardiff traffic. Would that really be worth the time saving (compared to the Swansea passengers)?

 

[Rhydgaled]

I know that if there is a regular service via th district line it is possible to cut journey times between Carmarthen & Cardiff from 1 hour 45 minutes to just 90 minutes which will enable the trains to compete more effectivly against the car

That's part of the plan:

From East Coast Website, the current Fishguard is timed at:
Carmarthen Dep: 14:22
Cardiff Central Arr: 16:04
However I've been on it twice, and it arrived about 14mins early (15:50). That was a 150, but doesn't call at Bridgend, meaning my proposed 158 operated service which does stop there probablly takes about the same time.

Manchester bound service:
Carmarthen Dep: 16:05
Cardiff Central Arr: 17:47

By car Carmarthen - Cardiff (AA Route Planner): 67.3 miles - 1hr 18min
By train Carmarthen - Cardiff (Manchester Bound) Service - 1hr 42min
By train Carmarthen - Cardiff (Fishguard - District Service) - 1hr 28min
Need to find another 10 mins from somewhere, hence I'm looking into linespeeds. In the short term, the only possible extra service is the Fishguard - Cardiff via District Line train because of the Gowerton single track. I'd happily settle for 1hr 28min until after the Gowerton re-doubling has happened and the other extra services have been introduced, but if I can find the money now (would £54.5m be enough? I think I've found that much) then that's different.

EDIT

A reduction of around 14% in journey time sounds good, but bear in mind it's at the expense of Carmarthen/Llanelli - Swansea and Swansea - Neath/ Port Talbot/ Cardiff traffic. Would that really be worth the time saving (compared to the Swansea passengers)?

As I've heard said before in relation to this before, these would be in addition to trains via Swansea, there being no question of diverting any services away from the existing Swansea (High Street) station.

 

[Pacerpilot]

If you're looking at District line services, then that's where you'd want your linespeed increases. There are a number of severe restrictions, and the linespeed for the whole stretch is only 50mph. The Down Direction has the bulk of the restrictions.
20mph for the Neath Swing Bridge (Both Directions)
20/40mph for Penllergaer tunnel (Down:No one seems to know why the speeds differ for the Up and Down)
30mph for sighting of a User Worked Crossing at Pontlliw (Down)
20mph for a set of trailing points Grovesend (Down)
30mph for Hendy Viaduct (Up)

 

[Gareth Marston]

route planner is notorious for assuming your the only vehicle on the road- obvious flaw, I doubt anyone who drives from Carmarthan to a job in central Cardiff starting at 0900 leaves home as late as 0740!

 

[Greenback]

Well, I expect the market is not time sensitive because for Carmarthen - Cardiff journeys it is so much faster by road at the moment, so all time sensitive pepole go by road. Hence I'm looking to address this issue to attract the time sensitive to rail as well.

It's fine to look for time savings to improve the market share of rail, but I think you may be looking in the wrong place for big time savings!

As some of you have said, with all the station stops on the current services it is not really viable to increase the linespeed, I'm thinking more about when the Gowerton bottleneck is sorted

It may be along time until the section of track through Gowerton is redoubled, and even longer before there ar eenough trains to run extra services, but I like the ideas!
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

If you're looking at District line services, then that's where you'd want your linespeed increases. There are a number of severe restrictions, and the linespeed for the whole stretch is only 50mph. The Down Direction has the bulk of the restrictions.
20mph for the Neath Swing Bridge (Both Directions)
20/40mph for Penllergaer tunnel (Down:No one seems to know why the speeds differ for the Up and Down)
30mph for sighting of a User Worked Crossing at Pontlliw (Down)
20mph for a set of trailing points Grovesend (Down)
30mph for Hendy Viaduct (Up)

The District Line is where I would look for better speeds and timings - that will bring down the fastest journeys between W Wales and Cardiff
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

route planner is notorious for assuming your the only vehicle on the road- obvious flaw, I doubt anyone who drives from Carmarthan to a job in central Cardiff starting at 0900 leaves home as late as 0740!

The journey time between our house and Cardiff by train is not too uncompetitive at the moment, allowing for traffic at each end. The longest part of the journey always seems to be getting on and off the motorway!

As always, though, it very much depends on where you are starting from and where you are going. It cna often take as long to get to one of the business parks on the outskirts by public transport as it does to ge tto Cardiff!

 

[Rhydgaled]

Seeing as you all seem to think it would be better to have the speed improvments on the District Line (despite there only be 1 train per 2-hours over that line in the plan I suggested whereas there's be more on the Llanelli-Carmarthen stretch) how much would it be to improve Llangennech to Morriston to 90mph? How much cheaper for a less drastic upgrade to 75mph?

The distance would be about 8miles, assuming the whole line is 50mph at present (ie. ignoring the lower limits) an increase to 90mph would knock off about 4.2 mins, for a 75mph upgrade that would be 3.2 mins. The real improvments would of course be better because of the lower restrictions in place at the moment. A possible problem is the £50m + that I would suggest diverting to pay for the line-speed improvements comes from road schemes in Carmarthenshire, and spending it accross the border might be hard to do.

A clear advantage of doing the District Line rather than Llanelli - Carmarthen is that I'd use 158s on the district line services so the higher speeds could be Sprinter only. Seeing as 158s are much lighter than 175s I imagine this will mean the standards don't need to be so high.

 

[The Planner]

The distance would be about 8miles, assuming the whole line is 50mph at present (ie. ignoring the lower limits) an increase to 90mph would knock off about 4.2 mins, for a 75mph upgrade that would be 3.2 mins. The real improvments would of course be better because of the lower restrictions in place at the moment.

Old Timer could answer in more detail but higher line speed changes the track catergory and increases the maintenance costs. 75mph would work better as it allow other units to keep time if they had to swap for whatever reason.

The 3.2 minutes is slightly spurious too, i suspect you wouldnt get quite that far, you are assuming instant acceleration and braking and a perfectly flat gradient. I find it hard to believe that this hasnt been looked at previously if there is pontentially a decent result to be had for it, is there any mention of it in a RUS ??

 

[Pacerpilot]

I was just trying to buy you that extra 10mins. The only reason I felt the lineside increases on the mainline would be unnecessary was the proximity of the station stops. This is true even west of Whitland. Once you reach 75mph your starting to to climb up to Clunderwen and powering off.

 

[Greenback]

I know little of linespeeds and the technical issues associated with improving them. I agree with Pacerpilot about the station stops though.

As to the District Line, there comes a point where the investment can be justified. I don't know what the details are, but there would be an element of computer modelling and forecasting involved. I would think that it would not be worth considering for one train every two hours. If there was a market for faster travel between Llanelli/Carmarthen and Cardiff, a faster service could be run now without any speed improvements, as this would still be faster than going via Swansea.

I suspect that the Swansea call remains too important, and that it would need far more dramatic journey time imrpovements to tempt people out of their cars.

 

[Bald Rick]

Seeing as you all seem to think it would be better to have the speed improvments on the District Line (despite there only be 1 train per 2-hours over that line in the plan I suggested whereas there's be more on the Llanelli-Carmarthen stretch) how much would it be to improve Llangennech to Morriston to 90mph? How much cheaper for a less drastic upgrade to 75mph?

The going rate just to answer that question to within +/-50% tolerance is £25k. Happy to oblige if anyone fancies a whip round. Although I would suggest there are other lines more deserving of this sort of study than this one.

Anyway, these are the things that need to be studied (in this example), and solutions found if the existing infrastructure is not suitable for the higher speed:

Track (pretty simple as there's no pointwork AFAIK)
1) Geometry
2) full assessment of current condition of all components
3) current track quality, and effect of higher speeds on this
4) additional maintenance requirements

Signalling
1) sighting distances
2) spacing between signals for braking distances
3) location of TPWS grids and AWS magnets
4) reassessment of signal risk assessment for each signal that protects a junction or LX
5) types of LX
5) LX strike in locations
6) LX sighting on approach (for unsupervised crossings) to allow sufficient crossing time
7) Re-evaluate risk assessment for every LX

Structures
1) assessment of strength of all underbridges and embankments
2) assessment of underbridges for resonance effects (unlikely in this case)
3) assessment of gauge clearance at every lineside structure to allow for increased kinematic envelope at greater speed. This is also required for train:train passing clearances.
4) check of tunnels to confirm aerodynamic affect of increased speed on passenger comfort, tunnel lining, and passing freight trains
5) re-evaluate risk for any underbridges that are regularly struck by road vehicles, and an locations on the known risk register for lineside incursions (i.e. road vehicles coming through the fence)

Other
1) check of all workforce safety arrangements to provide sufficient warning time for on track staff
2) check of all operational documentation relating to the line