that would be my option
Mine too. If there was a very important reason to make the journey on Easter weekend, such as visiting family like my little sister is doing that weekend, then fair enough. Travelling long distance for a football match, on a weekend with significant disruption for engineering works never mind any potential on the day issues (weather events are certainly possible), then I'd be staying indoors having been to the shop to get some treats in. Maybe even ordering in a takeaway to make it more of a special occasion.
A much cheaper alternative, and no risk of overcrowding one's living space unless inviting friends around. No queues at half-time for the facilities, no over-priced refreshments and a fortune saved on admission.
To me, spending say £20-£25 on watching it on TV (I'd spend a lot less than £25, but I wouldn't be buying alcohol, which many people would) is a much more sensible option than double that just to get to/from Liverpool.
There's also the fact I wouldn't want to be stuck on a very busy train with silly people, but that's just me! No covid concerns by staying indoors to watch the match!
However, should the OP decide to go and not one of us can stop you going so it's entirely your choice, I agree with the honourable gentleman from the area of Bletchley, Paddington-Oxford-Birmingham would be a good call to avoid Chiltern and potentially over-crowded 165s and 168s.
Quite, one could potentially do Paddington-Worcestershire Parkway-Birmingham which is a nice and easy change. I've no idea if trains are running that way though on Easter Monday. Granted, it's not the cheapest way to get there, but quality over price is sometimes the way to do things. Another alternative, but certainly not cheap, would be Paddington-Newport-Crewe and onto Liverpool. Such a routing would not be valid on a normal fare, I'm sure, but it's certainly a more interesting way to go.
Final thought is that the Jubilee line sets are good fun to travel on, so going to Stanmore for a rail replacement coach to MKC is not an entirely bad idea. I think I would actually take that routing because of getting some 96 stock action in!

Without looking any of this up, I don't know what journey times etc are like but compared to the potential sweatboxes that Chiltern will be I would have no issue over going via the rail replacement option to MKC. Of course, I would only be doing it if I needed to do it for an urgent or family situation.
I will be working on the Easter Monday morning, I will not be going near the railway that weekend. Or the roads, which are just as likely to be chaotic.