Linking ferry ports by rail (the decline)

[AlastairFraser]

Lower energy cost via electric isn't remotely likely for next few decades, by which time we might as well think of other futuristic travel options - why build a rail link when we can use flying bicycles to the port?

I'm not sure it's so unlikely, DFDS have ordered electric ferries for Dover to Calais. Cairnryan to Larne is a similar distance, Belfast isn't much further and Scotland has plenty of cheap renewable electricity available wholesale (if the port or ferry companies were to invest in a small BESS (battery storage) system, they could buy electricity at prices far below even the standard commercial rate, and BESS systems are becoming much cheaper to build as battery technology evolves.

The only thing that IMHO will help is a change in the economies of the adjacent areas. Holyhead to Dublin benefits from proximity of people and businesses at one or both ends of the trip (in spite of the awkward connection of Dublin port).

If you live anywhere like Bangor, Caernarfon, Holyhead then trekking to Manchester or Liverpool for a flight to Dublin is likely bonkers. However each of those places is small.. but if Bangor was larger and thriving but yet too small for an airport, then users would be far higher.

Same for Stranraer - the problem is there is nowhere big where flying isn't a more sensible foot option. Same for Pembrokeshire and Rosslare (both ends sparse).

New towns or vast expansion of the existing ones and their fortunes is needed

Holyhead benefits from decent rail and road connections too, it all depends on the Scottish Government's desire to reconnect deprived regions with new rail/road infrastructure.

Stranraer could be expanded with new housing as overspill for Glasgow if enough jobs were relocated away, but I think that is unlikely, and any investment in upgrading transport links in Dumfries and Galloway would have to be justified by social value.
Upgrading the A77 beyond Ayr/A75 beyond Dumfries to dual carriageway or at least single carriageway bypass with alternating overtaking lanes would bring most of Ayrshire within 1 hour of Cairnryan and possibly make Cairnryan the fastest port to reach from England for GB - NI freight (if you look at overall journey time with the Birkenhead to Belfast/Heysham to Warrenpoint ferry journey times making the total journey times on those routes slower overall).

I'd also add - there are other things that could play to improve the fortunes of rail here: electric cars. I know we're talking foot passengers in this thread, but ..

Plenty of people still take cars across the Irish sea - often filled with all the paraphernalia of infants that make flying hard work or other home comforts and pets.

Electric cars take a long time to charge - a motorail service with pantographs to recharge the cars could be interesting due to the journey time savings (and long drives are not actually fun), perhaps it'd also work with a battery bank in a GUV or on a container flat.

Strategic pick up places to aim for like ..
* the M4/M5 intersection (say actually Llanwern or Severn Tunnel Jct) would currently get 30 mins of charge .. but 90 mins once Swansea gets the wires.
* Warrington / M6/M62 - Newton-le-Willows - hardly any time under wires for Holyhead, but 2.5-3 hours ish for Stranraer.
* M25 Watford Gap for Holyhead and Stranraer.
* J12 Reading for Fishguard

Motorail isn't a terrible idea when it comes to using railway infrastructure overnight when it is less congested, but it wouldn't be economic to provide loading/unloading infrastructure at most ports (Holyhead being perhaps the major expansion, Dover already has Eurotunnel), and there's also the significant fire risk of high voltage charging on the move, with many cars trapped within a confined space.

 

[zwk500]

I think there is in a few isolated situations.
You've mentioned Holyhead, and others have mentioned the Scottish domestic network with decent integration between ferry and train.

I do see Cairnryan supporting a short rail spur and station if ferry economics for foot passengers changes in future (e.g. electric ships make energy costs much lower + crossings slightly faster and foot passenger travel becomes much more viable, plus railfreight becomes more economical with the rise in HGV based logistics costs).
It would be interesting to see if the Port Road could reopen initially as a freight-only line in that scenario, as the fastest rail route from southern England to NI.

Stranraer could be served by a shuttle bus from an interchange station nearby (future transport innovations will assist here too, with the advent of autonomous shuttles to transfer passengers cheaply and rapidly on demand).

Neither Stranraer nor Cairnryan will support new infrastructure purely for foot passengers at the ferry terminal.

The best thing for Stranraer would be to shorten the line slightly and build a station more convenient for the town itself (if the line south of Girvan doesnt close altogether) and the best thing for the ferry passengers would be a coach ticket from Ayr station to Larne.

 

[cactustwirly]

I'm not sure it's so unlikely, DFDS have ordered electric ferries for Dover to Calais. Cairnryan to Larne is a similar distance, Belfast isn't much further and Scotland has plenty of cheap renewable electricity available wholesale (if the port or ferry companies were to invest in a small BESS (battery storage) system, they could buy electricity at prices far below even the standard commercial rate, and BESS systems are becoming much cheaper to build as battery technology evolves.

Holyhead benefits from decent rail and road connections too, it all depends on the Scottish Government's desire to reconnect deprived regions with new rail/road infrastructure.

Stranraer could be expanded with new housing as overspill for Glasgow if enough jobs were relocated away, but I think that is unlikely, and any investment in upgrading transport links in Dumfries and Galloway would have to be justified by social value.
Upgrading the A77 beyond Ayr/A75 beyond Dumfries to dual carriageway or at least single carriageway bypass with alternating overtaking lanes would bring most of Ayrshire within 1 hour of Cairnryan and possibly make Cairnryan the fastest port to reach from England for GB - NI freight (if you look at overall journey time with the Birkenhead to Belfast/Heysham to Warrenpoint ferry journey times making the total journey times on those routes slower overall).

Motorail isn't a terrible idea when it comes to using railway infrastructure overnight when it is less congested, but it wouldn't be economic to provide loading/unloading infrastructure at most ports (Holyhead being perhaps the major expansion, Dover already has Eurotunnel), and there's also the significant fire risk of high voltage charging on the move, with many cars trapped within a confined space.

I don't think DFDS have actually placed an order.
Just lots of speculation about an order

Cairnryan to Belfast is 2hrs 15 and Dover to Calais is 1hr 30.

The Superfast twins currently on the route have another 10 years of service life left, I don't see Stena buying anything new before then, particularly as it's a route in decline Vs the Birkenhead route and an E Flexer is far too big.

It's more likely P&O will cancel the Larne route and maybe the volumes may justify new tonnage

 

[AlastairFraser]

Neither Stranraer nor Cairnryan will support new infrastructure purely for foot passengers at the ferry terminal.

The best thing for Stranraer would be to shorten the line slightly and build a station more convenient for the town itself (if the line south of Girvan doesnt close altogether) and the best thing for the ferry passengers would be a coach ticket from Ayr station to Larne.

Well it all depends on whether ferries become much more economic in the future, and how much aviation costs.
With the political climate and general gradual rise of costs for airlines including APD, shipping companies may well be able to undercut them in future.

I don't think DFDS have actually placed an order.
Just lots of speculation about an order

DFDS to invest €1 billion in battery electric ships for the

DFDS invests €1 billion in battery electric vessels, committing to decarbonise English Channel maritime traffic.

www.dfds.com

I think this is pretty clear cut about their plans, although an article with a ferry magazine (can't post it because of a paywall) says that they are waiting on the Port of Dover's plans to install fast charging infrastructure, otherwise they may have to delay their plans.
It still shows the technology is feasible and viable for routes of a similar distance.

Cairnryan to Belfast is 2hrs 15 and Dover to Calais is 1hr 30.

Not too much of a difference and I did mention that cheap renewable electricity is far more easily available in Scotland (and increasingly NI with wind farms joining the Single Electricity Market).

The Superfast twins currently on the route have another 10 years of service life left, I don't see Stena buying anything new before then, particularly as it's a route in decline Vs the Birkenhead route and an E Flexer is far too big.

I agree that Stena is unlikely to invest in new ships for the route soon, I have a feeling P&O may be purchased by a competitor (perhaps DFDS or Irish Ferries) at some point, and the new owners may well have significant investment plans including a new fleet.

 

[Mgameing123]

Well it all depends on whether ferries become much more economic in the future, and how much aviation costs.
With the political climate and general gradual rise of costs for airlines including APD, shipping companies may well be able to undercut them in future.

DFDS to invest €1 billion in battery electric ships for the

DFDS invests €1 billion in battery electric vessels, committing to decarbonise English Channel maritime traffic.

www.dfds.com

I think this is pretty clear cut about their plans, although an article with a ferry magazine (can't post it because of a paywall) says that they are waiting on the Port of Dover's plans to install fast charging infrastructure, otherwise they may have to delay their plans.
It still shows the technology is feasible and viable for routes of a similar distance.

Not too much of a difference and I did mention that cheap renewable electricity is far more easily available in Scotland (and increasingly NI with wind farms joining the Single Electricity Market).

I agree that Stena is unlikely to invest in new ships for the route soon, I have a feeling P&O may be purchased by a competitor (perhaps DFDS or Irish Ferries) at some point, and the new owners may well have significant investment plans including a new fleet.

I really hope that P&O does not get purchased so you can still use the ferry as a foot passenger!

 

[AlastairFraser]

I really hope that P&O does not get purchased so you can still use the ferry as a foot passenger!

Stena Line take passengers on the Belfast to Cairnryan route anyway, Irish Ferries do on nearly all of their existing routes and DFDS still do on most of their routes I think (excluding Dover to Calais/Dunkerque).
I don't see the foot passenger offer on the Straits of Dover completely disappearing even with a P&O buyout, I think it would be heavily lobbied against by the French municipalities near the ferry ports.