Rail is very efficient
if you are moving hundreds of people at a time.
It's not the answer to every problem, and certainly not in areas of low population density.
Rail should focus on what it does best.
For example, is it better or worse for the environment to have a DMU carrying fifty passengers or have fifty people driving cars? I don't know what the tipping point is, but I think we should focus on high density areas.
It's a good read (I think
Pumbaa posted it a while back, and I spent far too long reading it...), quite sobering - given that any thread about re-openings tends to end up with people saying 'BUT WHAT ABOUT EBBW VALE AND ALLOA' (and ignoring some of the more "average" reopening...).
Some of the stations show how random the process is. The "out of town" Newcraighall in Edinburgh got 176 ,975 passengers pa compared to an expected 467,600...
...but the "out of town" Edinburgh Park on the other side of Edinburgh got 382,823 passengers pa compared to an expected 209,619.
Page 21 is well worth a read, as is the graph on page iv.
It also explains the straightforward reasons why Alloa and Ebbw Vale are such outliers, in terms of data:
(i.e. they didn't bother doing accurate assessments for Alloa since the passenger operations were a sweeter for opening the line for freight so that freight could be diverted away from the Forth Bridge - it wasn't built solely for passenger reasons - so they didn't even bother assessing the size of the bus market - something like seven or eight buses an hour to Stirling...
...and the Ebbw Vale figures were based on a proposed service to Newport - before the steel works closed, so the number of people needing to travel out of Ebbw Vale to seek employment significantly increased)
It also provides a lot of detail about the methodology that goes into these things, rather than the "IF YOU BUILD IT, THEY WILL COME' approach so beloved of many enthusiasts
Some lines/stations have worked well, some lines/stations haven't lived up to expectations. Some proposals for further re-openings seem to have good cases (Ashington, Portishead), some are just pie-in-the-sky fantasy. But, I'll never stop enthusiasts from coming up with their 1960s nostalgia-fests
Have a look at the report quoted above - some interesting examples - e.g. Aylesbury Vale Parkway was expected to get 29,000 passengers but only got 13,066 (i.e. not even half the expected numbers).
I wasn't living in Sheffield at the time, but my understanding is that...
Electrification was a red-herring - it was non-standard and would therefore need replacing anyway (as it was to be replaced on the Glossop branch).
Woodhead used Sheffield Victoria, rather than Sheffield Midland, which brought its own problems
Whilst the intermediate populations of both lines were fairly low (through relatively empty parts of Derbyshire), at least the Hope Valley line served the cement works in Hope.
If you could serve Penistone from Barnsley then there wouldn't be much in the way of "local" passenger service on the Woodhead route (the line is poorly located to serve centres of population at Hillsborough and Stocksbridge).
The Hope Valley line also allowed the line through Bakewell to be closed.
Factor in the cost of maintaining the Woodhead tunnels and the long term future of the freight over Woodhead (Dearne Valley coal etc), and it seems a reasonable decision was taken.
Since the service from Sheffield to Manchester nowadays is only a "fast" service every half hour (taking almost an hour to cover around forty five miles, run by two/three/four coach DMUs) - plus the 1h15m Northern stopper every couple of hours, there's some way to go before we run out of capacity - we could run six/eight coach trains from Sheffield to Manchester much easier than build a second route (via Woodhead).