The poll is ambiguous as it doesn't specify location. In my opinion:
- Within densely populated conurbations (such as Greater Manchester) to serve places generally within 10 miles of the city centre, 5 tph tram is preferable.
- For urban settlements in semi-rural areas situated at a greater distance from their nearest metropolis (e.g. Alderley Edge and Knutsford in eastern Cheshire), 2 tph train is preferable, to provide greater comfort/speed; high frequency is less important.
- It is inappropriate to extend Metrolink beyond the formal boundaries of Greater Manchester, which are generally over 10 miles from the city centre, with the possible exception of Glossop/Hadfield.
I'd argue that timetabled speed from station to station on a specific service is unimportant.
Ultimately we are competing with the car, which is a transport mode when people can leave whenever they want without gross delays at arriving at their destination (I mean that delaying your departure by 30 seconds cannot lead to you arriving a half hour late at your destination)
Therefore we should be thinking about a transport mode where the person arrives at the starting station at a random time, and as such the wait time is,
on average, half the gap between services.
So the timetabled journey time advantage of a 2tph train over a 5tph tram would have to reach 9 minutes for the modified journey times to be equal.
Given, as an example, that the timetabled journey time from Warrington Central to Manchester central stations is 26-38 minutes. We would be looking at a tram having to travel the ~15.5 miles from the Deansgate-Castlefield station complex in about 35-47 minutes.
That is an average speed of ~20-27mph. Which given that the tram train will be capable of 50-60mph with huge acceleration, seems easily achievable.
We are competing against a turn-up-and-go transport solution, so we must beat them on a turn-up-and-go basis.