Life after the end of "lockdown" 2.0

[island]

I live in what was a Tier 2 area, and the pubs were quite busy, after taking account of social distancing rules and regulations.

There was some inventive use of plastic screens to effectively divide one table into two, so that people from one household could sit one side of the screen, and those from another household could sit on the other side.

Also, you were able to have a conversation with someone from another household, providing they were sitting more than two metres away from you.

That would have been a breach of the regulations.

 

[Smidster]

My expectation might be something along the lines of:

- Non-essential retail allowed to open everywhere in 2 weeks but hospitality to stay closed for at least one more week everywhere.
- Return to the tiering system but probably with four tiers and stricter restrictions in each. For example even in tier one I would expect household mixing at home to be banned and tier four is like we have now with the stay at home order.
- Would not amaze if schools were closed a week early for Christmas.

For Christmas common rules across the UK for a 2 week period (Dec 21 - Jan 4) - Certainly no big gatherings but they might allow two households to mix but with an expectation that people will self-isolate afterwards.

 

[Pete_uk]

There is an opinion that lockdown 2 might last beyond December 2nd as Hancock didn't rule it out.

 

[duncanp]

There is an opinion that lockdown 2 might last beyond December 2nd as Hancock didn't rule it out.

If lockdown 2 continues in its current form beyond 2nd December, then that cuts the time available for Christmas shopping, meaning that the shops will be even more crowded when they eventually re-open, which is exactly the opposite of what you want to happen.

So I think that non essential retail will open on 3rd December (Thursday) but hospitality may be delayed until the following Monday or Tuesday (7th or 8th December) so that pubs re-open on a relatively quiet midweek day.

I also hope that when pubs are re-opened, they get rid of the silly 10pm closing time, as there is no scientific basis for it, and it may even be counterproductive. Preferably they should also get rid of the rule requiring masks to be worn inside the pub when you are not sitting down.

Of course, whatever does happen after 2nd December, no doubt a SAGE scientist will be on BBC Breakfast on about 5th December calling for another lockdown early in the new year.

 

[PTR 444]

What would be the feasibility of allowing two households to form a bubble for the two week period over Christmas & New Year, provided that each bubble is not allowed to mix with any other bubble both indoors and outdoors?

I know support bubbles already exist but I would have this as an exception under my system, so any support bubble that already exists would be able to add an extra household into their bubble for the two weeks.

 

[island]

What would be the feasibility of allowing two households to form a bubble for the two week period over Christmas & New Year, provided that there is also a blanket ban on bubbles mixing both indoors and outdoors?

I know support bubbles already exist but I would have this as an exception under my system, so any support bubble that already exists would be able to add an extra household into their bubble for the two weeks.

What’s the point in forming a bubble if you can’t mix?

 

[yorksrob]

Well, another one of the oracles of SAGE has been pronouncing on the BBC again:

Covid: England tier system may need strengthening - government adviser

The impact of the three-tier Covid system in England was varied, says a senior health official.

www.bbc.co.uk

"Speaking at the government's evening coronavirus briefing, Dr Hopkins, who is also a member of the government's scientific advisory group (Sage), said the "key" to knowing if the four-week lockdown in England was working was "if cases fall" and they expect to know that "in the next week".

"As long as we see cases decline we can make judgments... about opening up," she said.
She added that, prior to the lockdown, the "tiering of the country" had had a "different effect in each area".

"Tier three plus" had led to a reduction in cases in the North West, she said, while tier two "holds in some areas and not in others", depending on "how well individuals are taking that advice in".

However, she added: "We see very little effect from tier one and when we look at what tiers may be there in the future, we will have to think about strengthening them to get us through the winter months until the vaccine is available for everyone.""

So it seems that rather than using the vaccine to shield the vulnerable and take the pressure off, we will be waiting with even tighter restrictions until everyone has been vaccinated.

For good measure she goes on to say that there may need to be a further tightening of restrictions on hospitality beyond tier three (as if that will make any difference).

These idiots are a menace to society.

 

[Bantamzen]

Well, another one of the oracles of SAGE has been pronouncing on the BBC again:

Covid: England tier system may need strengthening - government adviser

The impact of the three-tier Covid system in England was varied, says a senior health official.

www.bbc.co.uk

"Speaking at the government's evening coronavirus briefing, Dr Hopkins, who is also a member of the government's scientific advisory group (Sage), said the "key" to knowing if the four-week lockdown in England was working was "if cases fall" and they expect to know that "in the next week".

"As long as we see cases decline we can make judgments... about opening up," she said.
She added that, prior to the lockdown, the "tiering of the country" had had a "different effect in each area".

"Tier three plus" had led to a reduction in cases in the North West, she said, while tier two "holds in some areas and not in others", depending on "how well individuals are taking that advice in".

However, she added: "We see very little effect from tier one and when we look at what tiers may be there in the future, we will have to think about strengthening them to get us through the winter months until the vaccine is available for everyone.""

So it seems that rather than using the vaccine to shield the vulnerable and take the pressure off, we will be waiting with even tighter restrictions until everyone has been vaccinated.

For good measure she goes on to say that there may need to be a further tightening of restrictions on hospitality beyond tier three (as if that will make any difference).

These idiots are a menace to society.

Perhaps some of these advisers might like to go out on a roadshow to go face to face with the people whose lives they are slowly but surely wreaking? Its all very easy hiding behind those podiums and not actually having to be accountable. If I were PM, the first thing I would be doing is telling them that they must as a group accept full responsibility for their decisions. They'd disappear back into their boxes before you could say "Whitless Wonder"....

 

[PTR 444]

What’s the point in forming a bubble if you can’t mix?

I meant households in the same bubble can mix, but different households cannot.

I’ve edited my post so it makes more sense.

 

[duncanp]

These idiots are a menace to society.

Couldn't agree more

You have got to look at why cases are higher in certain parts of the country.

Large multi generational households are one means by which cases can spread, because it is difficult for someone in that household to self isolate, no matter how careful they are.

So perhaps one answer would be to have government sponsored isolation facilities for people who would find it difficult to self isolate otherwise.

And people need to be paid adequately to self isolate, together with assistance in obtaining essential supplies, so that there is no incentive for them to go out to work or the shops.

Also, if we are going to have a tiered system of restrictions after 2nd December, then there must be clearly defined criteria for moving up and down the tiers, with weekly reviews to determine which area is in which Tier. If an area changes tier, then it should remain in that tier for at least 3 weeks, to determine the effect of moving tier on the number of cases.

 

[Yew]

So perhaps one answer would be to have government sponsored isolation facilities for people who would find it difficult to self isolate otherwise.

If only there were loads of business hotels sitting empty...

 

[duncanp]

If only there were loads of business hotels sitting empty...

That is exactly the thing I had in mind.

After all, hotels are being used to house homeless people, so why not have several 'isolation' hotels for people who genuinely find it difficult to self isolate properly.

Meanwhile here is today's scare story from a "SAGE expert" and former government adviser.

Coronavirus live - latest news: 'COVID will be here forever' - Van-Tam's note of caution as he admits getting 'quite emotional' about vaccine

The latest coronavirus updates as England's new tier system comes into force and the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is approved for use in the UK.

news.sky.com

How utterly predictable

COVID live news - latest UK updates: 'If we go out partying, cases will go up rapidly': SAGE scientist's Christmas warning​

If we go out partying cases will go up rapidly - former chief scientific adviser

SAGE expert and former chief scientific adviser Sir Mark Walport spoke to Kay Burley about yesterday's Moderna vaccine developments and what he thinks Christmas will look like this year in England.

He said that the latest vaccine developments will not make a difference to the festive period.

"Christmas is not going to be affected by the round of vaccines. It’s going to take a bit longer than that," he said.

"Cases are still rising. Hospitals are continuing to fill up. It’s absolutely critical that people continue to observe the lockdown rules.

"This give us the best chance of a break where we can see our friends and family. It’s hard to believe it's going to be a normal Christmas.

"If we take the brakes off and go out partying – cases will go up rapidly. The virus will only come under control when we get a vaccine."

 

[bramling]

My expectation might be something along the lines of:

- Non-essential retail allowed to open everywhere in 2 weeks but hospitality to stay closed for at least one more week everywhere.
- Return to the tiering system but probably with four tiers and stricter restrictions in each. For example even in tier one I would expect household mixing at home to be banned and tier four is like we have now with the stay at home order.
- Would not amaze if schools were closed a week early for Christmas.

For Christmas common rules across the UK for a 2 week period (Dec 21 - Jan 4) - Certainly no big gatherings but they might allow two households to mix but with an expectation that people will self-isolate afterwards.

This is all a bit academic. People *will* meet up over Christmas, just like many are already doing now.

I suspect the main consideration will be whether they’re meeting up with family members who are elderly and/or clinically vulnerable. What’s the betting that in many cases the family members concerned will prefer to take the chance?

 

[bussikuski179]

Though I’m not from the UK and thus not affected by this lockdown, I think that extending it past December 2nd would do more harm than good as that would make the window for Christmas shopping even smaller and shops would get extremely busy which would mean there’d be a lot of spread and there’d probably be a third lockdown in January, which no one wants.

 

[HSTEd]

Though I’m not from the UK and thus not affected by this lockdown, I think that extending it past December 2nd would do more harm than good as that would make the window for Christmas shopping even smaller and shops would get extremely busy which would mean there’d be a lot of spread and there’d probably be a third lockdown in January, which no one wants.

Christmas Shopping has already occurred, online.

That is the reality of the situation, the mass collapse of retail is already locked in for the new year.

 

[trainophile]

Well I've just bought train tickets to go and check on my flat 3rd to 7th Dec, thought I'd better while cheap ones were available. Not the end of the world if I don't go but it's my last opportunity this year so I ought to make sure everything's okay.

 

[Paul_10]

That is exactly the thing I had in mind.

After all, hotels are being used to house homeless people, so why not have several 'isolation' hotels for people who genuinely find it difficult to self isolate properly.

Meanwhile here is today's scare story from a "SAGE expert" and former government adviser.

Coronavirus live - latest news: 'COVID will be here forever' - Van-Tam's note of caution as he admits getting 'quite emotional' about vaccine

The latest coronavirus updates as England's new tier system comes into force and the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine is approved for use in the UK.

news.sky.com

How utterly predictable

How is it a scare story? It seems quite obvious too me, the more mixing goes on, the greater the spread and when people are out and about drunk, then common sence goes out of the window.

Reality is whether you like it or not, the more people infected, the likely hood of more hospitalisations and we could get to that breaking point where resources are stretched beyond breaking point. I hope that does not happen but it will if too many people are seriously ill.

 

[Bantamzen]

How is it a scare story? It seems quite obvious too me, the more mixing goes on, the greater the spread and when people are out and about drunk, then common sence goes out of the window.

Reality is whether you like it or not, the more people infected, the likely hood of more hospitalisations and we could get to that breaking point where resources are stretched beyond breaking point. I hope that does not happen but it will if too many people are seriously ill.

Resources in the NHS are regularly stretched, and covid isn't the biggest problem by far right now. Perhaps, and this is just thinking outside the box, all the money we are p***ing up the wall keeping people at home could be used to, oh I don't know add capacity to the NHS, bring back staff that have left, pay them more, you know things that will actually improve the service for everyone. But no, blame people going to the pub.....

 

[duncanp]

Resources in the NHS are regularly stretched, and covid isn't the biggest problem by far right now. Perhaps, and this is just thinking outside the box, all the money we are p***ing up the wall keeping people at home could be used to, oh I don't know add capacity to the NHS, bring back staff that have left, pay them more, you know things that will actually improve the service for everyone. But no, blame people going to the pub.....

Precisely.

When pubs re-opened in the summer, there wasn't a spike in cases. This only happened when the schools and universities went back.

Any increase in cases caused by Christmas socialising is likely to be cancelled out by schools and universities being closed.

But yes, let's make hospitality the scapegoat again.

 

[Class 33]

Like many on here, I'm absolutely sick and tired of all these headlines such as "Lockdown must become tougher, SAGE expert warns or "Lockdown must be extended for months, former government advisor warns" or whatever. Why do we never get any headlines such as "Lockdown must end on 2nd December to save the economy, economy advisor warns" or "Lockdown must end on 2nd December as mental health crisis will reach breaking point, mental health expert warns"??!! No, it's all about these darn SAGE experts or other so called "experts" or "advisors" concentrating on Coronavirus alone, and not taking into account atall the catastrophic damage all this lockdown, social distancing, etc is doing to the economy, people's livelihoods and mental health! We just can not continue with all this nonsense for too much longer now! Myself, to be honest with this vaccine found now, I'm really hoping and expecting all this nonsense will finally be over by April. And am doing my best to try and manage until then, still another long 4 and half months to go yet. But if come April all this ridiculous lockdowns, social distancing, face mask wearing, etc still drags on with no definite end in sight, then I may well think that I just can't carry on living any more. This is just too much this is for months and months on end. Many many people may well be feeling very similarly.

Johnson and his cabinet(in particular Hancock who ironically is the health secretary!!) just don't seem too bothered about the effect all this is doing to the economy and people's mental HEALTH!

 

[packermac]

Like many on here, I'm absolutely sick and tired of all these headlines with "..... SAGE expert warns or "..... former government advisor warns". Why do we never get any headlines such as "Lockdown must end on 2nd December to save the economy, economy advisor warns" or "Lockdown must end on 2nd December as mental health crisis will reach breaking point, mental health expert warns"??!! No, it's all about these darn SAGE experts or other so called "experts" or "advisors" concentrating on Coronavirus alone, and not taking into account atall the catastrophic damage all this lockdown, social distancing, etc is doing to the economy, people's livelihoods and mental health! We just can not continue with all this nonsense for too much longer now! Myself, to be honest with this vaccine found now, I'm really hoping and expecting all this nonsense will be over by April. And am doing to best to try and manage until then, still another long 4 and half months to go yet. But if come April all this ridiculous lockdowns, social distancing, face mask wearing, etc still drags on with no definite end in sight, then I may well think that I just can't carry on living any more. This is just too much this is for months and months on end.

Johnson and his cabinet(in particular Hancock who ironically is the health secretary!!) just don't seem too bothered about the effect all this is doing to the economy and people's mental HEALTH!

Well on e reason is that governments have a legal requirement to provide emergency healthcare for those that need it. So whilst all those people missing operations and cancer treatments, may themselves become emergency cases in the future, it is those that need hospitalisation and ICU treatment now that are seen. Hence the redeployment of operating theatre nursing staff to ICU wards, further delaying operations. Unless of course you are proposing some form of "disease means test" to decide if you get admitted to hospital depending on your symptoms.

 

[HSTEd]

Well on e reason is that governments have a legal requirement to provide emergency healthcare for those that need it. So whilst all those people missing operations and cancer treatments, may themselves become emergency cases in the future, it is those that need hospitalisation and ICU treatment now that are seen. Hence the redeployment of operating theatre nursing staff to ICU wards, further delaying operations. Unless of course you are proposing some form of "disease means test" to decide if you get admitted to hospital depending on your symptoms.

Requirements for emergency health are, and have always been, subject to the requirements of triage.

People who are unlikely to survive simply get triaged to the back of the queue for what resources are available.

 

[duncanp]

Like many on here, I'm absolutely sick and tired of all these headlines such as "Lockdown must become tougher, SAGE expert warns or "Lockdown must be extended for months, former government advisor warns" or whatever. Why do we never get any headlines such as "Lockdown must end on 2nd December to save the economy, economy advisor warns" or "Lockdown must end on 2nd December as mental health crisis will reach breaking point, mental health expert warns"??!! No, it's all about these darn SAGE experts or other so called "experts" or "advisors" concentrating on Coronavirus alone, and not taking into account atall the catastrophic damage all this lockdown, social distancing, etc is doing to the economy, people's livelihoods and mental health! We just can not continue with all this nonsense for too much longer now! Myself, to be honest with this vaccine found now, I'm really hoping and expecting all this nonsense will finally be over by April. And am doing my best to try and manage until then, still another long 4 and half months to go yet. But if come April all this ridiculous lockdowns, social distancing, face mask wearing, etc still drags on with no definite end in sight, then I may well think that I just can't carry on living any more. This is just too much this is for months and months on end. Many many people may well be feeling very similarly.

Johnson and his cabinet(in particular Hancock who ironically is the health secretary!!) just don't seem too bothered about the effect all this is doing to the economy and people's mental HEALTH!

You can count me in on the bit I have highlighted in bold.

 

[NorthOxonian]

Like many on here, I'm absolutely sick and tired of all these headlines such as "Lockdown must become tougher, SAGE expert warns or "Lockdown must be extended for months, former government advisor warns" or whatever. Why do we never get any headlines such as "Lockdown must end on 2nd December to save the economy, economy advisor warns" or "Lockdown must end on 2nd December as mental health crisis will reach breaking point, mental health expert warns"??!! No, it's all about these darn SAGE experts or other so called "experts" or "advisors" concentrating on Coronavirus alone, and not taking into account atall the catastrophic damage all this lockdown, social distancing, etc is doing to the economy, people's livelihoods and mental health! We just can not continue with all this nonsense for too much longer now! Myself, to be honest with this vaccine found now, I'm really hoping and expecting all this nonsense will finally be over by April. And am doing my best to try and manage until then, still another long 4 and half months to go yet. But if come April all this ridiculous lockdowns, social distancing, face mask wearing, etc still drags on with no definite end in sight, then I may well think that I just can't carry on living any more. This is just too much this is for months and months on end. Many many people may well be feeling very similarly.

Johnson and his cabinet(in particular Hancock who ironically is the health secretary!!) just don't seem too bothered about the effect all this is doing to the economy and people's mental HEALTH!

Fully agree with this. The lack of balance is incredibly frustrating.

I had the misfortune of listening to an interview with Neil Ferguson last night, and he thinks we need somewhere between the old Tier 2 and Tier 3 after the 2nd of December to avoid cases rising, and that any easing over Christmas would lead to more lockdowns in the New Year. But even he thinks restrictions would be significantly eased by March or April.

 

[Crossover]

But even he thinks restrictions would be significantly eased by March or April.

But the problem is we've had similar soundbites since day 1, so does he really think that or is he just attempting to garner support, I wonder...

 

[MikeWM]

Whatever happened to 'the hammer and the dance'? Seems it didn't really work after all (and/or has been restructured to 'the hammer and the slightly less big hammer'. Certainly we're not to be allowed any dancing).

Still, the buy-in to it made pots of money for its author, so I guess that's ok.

 

[HSTEd]

I don't know why I should pay attention to Neil Ferguson given he has already demonstrated that he thinks rules are for cattle rather than people like him

 

[Yew]

I don't know why I should pay attention to Neil Ferguson given he has already demonstrated that he thinks rules are for cattle rather than people like him

I don't like this sort of argument; we shouldn't listen to him because he's spent the last decade being consistently wrong, not because he broke the rules.

 

[big_rig]

Whatever happened to 'the hammer and the dance'? Seems it didn't really work after all (and/or has been restructured to 'the hammer and the slightly less big hammer'. Certainly we're not to be allowed any dancing).

Still, the buy-in to it made pots of money for its author, so I guess that's ok.

I had forgotten about that bloke, he had gone quite a long time between posts so perhaps the online University money is drying up and he's started again. His most recent article (it is quite unreadable and thousands and thousands of words long) seems to think that a combination of goggles and permanent border closures is the answer to everything. So eight months or so on since the first article I guess he still hasn't clocked the 'what next after that' move (nor does he seem to understand the concept of 'seasons' and their impact on the spreading of viruses, but I digress)..

 

[Crossover]

I don't like this sort of argument; we shouldn't listen to him because he's spent the last decade being consistently wrong, not because he broke the rules.

In fairness, one should also lead by example