Liberal Democratic Party - Why do they continue

[DynamicSpirit]

It was interesting May said last night she called a General Election because of MPs calling for a second referendum, which in her view is disruptive. There's 9 Lib Dem MPs and the Greens are also backing a second referendum so she claims she called a General Election because she's scared of just 10 MPs on the opposition benches, when she's got over 300!

Yes, I was disappointed that Paxman didn't pick her up on that comment. Theresa May has has repeatedly made a big thing of this as the reason for having an election, and has been virtually unchallenged in doing so. Yet it is clearly spin bordering on outright falsehood. Given the Tories' majority in the Commons, the logic of needing an election to allow her to pursue Brexit makes no sense. The only way the Brexit can be seriously disrupted is if she upsets enough of her own MPs sufficiently for them to vote against her - which would require a sensationally big cock-up by the Government. (Maybe it could be delayed by votes in the Lords, but an election now is unlikely to make any significant difference to that).

 

[edwin_m]

(Maybe it could be delayed by votes in the Lords, but an election now is unlikely to make any significant difference to that).

The Lords doesn't vote against something that's in the manifesto of the winning party, and hard Brexit is in the Tory manifesto, so this election has effectively nullified any opposition from the Lords (something few commentators seem to have noticed). I think they'd provoke some sort of constitutional crisis if they tried to vote down the final deal unless it turned out to be something else entirely.

 

[edwin_m]

I think the Lib Dem's policy on a second EU referendum is entirely logical but completely unsaleable in the current election. There isn't much point in pushing as your key policy something which just isn't going to happen (much as I wish it could). They would be better aiming at softening the Brexit which is going to happen and making a fuss about things like the European Court of Human Rights, which Teresa M is going to take us out of despite the fact that it isn't an EU body and therefore wasn't covered by the referendum mandate.

My "if only" is that Vince Cable had been LD leader in 2010 rather than Nick Clegg. I think he would have been much more hard nosed and not trusted David Cameron as Nick C obviously did. If they had insisted that Tuition Fees were brought in as a Graduate Tax (which is more or less what it is) the Tories would have gone along with it.

The second referendum is entirely in line with historic Lib Dem policy (unlike the various policies the Tories have grabbed having previously opposed them when put forward by Labour!). So it would be a bit surprising if they didn't put it forward. No doubt they will do whatever they can to get either the referendum or any softenings of Brexit they can obtain, but the chances of them doing so are slim unless the recent Labour surge translates into another hung parliament.

I'm not enough up on the personalities to comment on that but I agree whoever was leading should have stood up to the Tories far more. They would have gained a lot of support if they'd stopped the NHS changes for example, which weren't in the manifesto or the coalition agreement.

 

[Mutant Lemming]

I think the Lib Dems will grow in size in the upcoming election as theres a number of seats where the Lib Dems are a close 2nd to the Tory party so Labour voters might decide to vote tactically to try and force them out, my money is the Lib Dems having 15 MPs after this election.

Sorry but afraid I would NEVER vote for the party that covered up for paedos

 

[northwichcat]

Sorry but afraid I would NEVER vote for the party that covered up for paedos

So I take it you'd never vote Conservative, Labour or Lib Dem then.

 

[edwin_m]

Apparently there's one poll just come out predicting a hung parliament.

 

[DerekC]

It was interesting May said last night she called a General Election because of MPs calling for a second referendum, which in her view is disruptive. There's 9 Lib Dem MPs and the Greens are also backing a second referendum so she claims she called a General Election because she's scared of just 10 MPs on the opposition benches, when she's got over 300!

There's only one thing this election has been called for which is for the Tories to stay in power. They realised that an election in 2020 would almost certainly be in the middle of a chaotic Brexit or post-Brexit negotiation with the EU, with the economy tanking, the Remainers saying "I told you so" and UKIP shouting that if only the job was done properly by them, everything in the garden would be rosy. Teresa M saw that she was likely to win now and grabbed the opportunity for another 5 years in power. It's nothing to do with national interest (unless you are Teresa May, of course, who takes the view that what she believes in and the national interest are the same thing).

 

[Y961 XBU]

Apparently there's one poll just come out predicting a hung parliament.

Correct, but i cant see it as the only way the tories would lose that many seats would be through Lib Dem tactical voting witch this Poll does not seem to show so i dont think its actuate

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...seats-theresa-may-conservatives-a7764271.html

 

[northwichcat]

Correct, but i cant see it as the only way the tories would lose that many seats would be through Lib Dem tactical voting witch this Poll does not seem to show so i dont think its actuate

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...seats-theresa-may-conservatives-a7764271.html

I can't see any mention of Esther McVey in that article. You must have meant which

 

[Mutant Lemming]

So I take it you'd never vote Conservative, Labour or Lib Dem then.

Gave up on them some time ago they all morphed into an indiscernible mass of career politicians furthering their own ends.

 

[Y961 XBU]

I have to admit last night i think Tim Farren came out the strongest in the leaders debates, something i did not expect, Hopefully it works for him with regards to some tactical voting in seats where he is a close 2nd to the tories

 

[northwichcat]

I have to admit last night i think Tim Farren came out the strongest in the leaders debates, something i did not expect, Hopefully it works for him with regards to some tactical voting in seats where he is a close 2nd to the tories

I think his simple response to Leanne Wood's criticism of the 2010-2015 coalition with the Conservatives was effective when he simply said "Leanne as you know I voted against that policy." He also didn't try to argue with Amber Rudd when she tried to take credit for a Lib Dem policy that was implemented during the coalition.

On the other hand Corbyn tried to take credit for some policies implemented while Blair was leader but tried to distance himself from others.

 

[Busaholic]

I think his simple response to Leanne Wood's criticism of the 2010-2015 coalition with the Conservatives was effective when he simply said "Leanne as you know I voted against that policy." He also didn't try to argue with Amber Rudd when she tried to take credit for a Lib Dem policy that was implemented during the coalition.

On the other hand Corbyn tried to take credit for some policies implemented while Blair was leader but tried to distance himself from others.

The only LibDem MP who did not vote in favour of joining the coalition was Charles Kennedy, who abstained.

 

[northwichcat]

The only LibDem MP who did not vote in favour of joining the coalition was Charles Kennedy, who abstained.

Leanne Wood referred to a specific policy which the coalition approved. Tim Farron didn't vote in favour of Conservative led policies on 40 occasions - 7 times he voted against and the other times he abstained from voting.

 

[AlterEgo]

The only LibDem MP who did not vote in favour of joining the coalition was Charles Kennedy, who abstained.

God love Charles Kennedy. A hero of mine.

 

[Busaholic]

God love Charles Kennedy. A hero of mine.

Mine too - a politician with a sense of humour, who didn't take himself too seriously but also had a very sharp brain. He was too good to flourish in that circus of mediocrities that comprises a good part of the lobbyfodder, regrettably.

 

[Y961 XBU]

My Current predictions for the Lib Dems in the upcoming Election:

Holds:
Ceredigion
Westmorland & Lonsdale
Carshalton & Wallington (By a very small majority)

Gains:
Eastbourne (From Con)
Lewes (From Con)
Thornbury and Yate (From Con)
Twickenham (From Con)
Kingston & Surbiton (From Con)

Losses
Orkney & Shetland (To SNP)
Sheffield Hallam (To Lab)
Southport (To Con)
Leeds North West (To Lab)
Norfolk North (To Con)

 

[cjmillsnun]

God love Charles Kennedy. A hero of mine.

A very genuine man and the best PM this country never had.

 

[northwichcat]

My Current predictions for the Lib Dems in the upcoming Election:

Holds:
Ceredigion
Westmorland & Lonsdale
Carshalton & Wallington (By a very small majority)

Gains:
Eastbourne (From Con)
Lewes (From Con)
Thornbury and Yate (From Con)
Twickenham (From Con)
Kingston & Surbiton (From Con)

Losses
Orkney & Shetland (To SNP)
Sheffield Hallam (To Lab)
Southport (To Con)
Leeds North West (To Lab)
Norfolk North (To Con)

YouGov predictions are reasonably close to your own:


Probable Lib Dem hold:
Ceredigion

Likely Lib Dem hold:
Westmorland and Lonsdale

Possible Lib Dem loss:
Southport
Orkney & Shetland
Sheffield Hallam
Leeds North West
North Norfolk

Probable Lib Dem gain:
Twickenham

Likely Lib Dem gain:
Kingston and Surbiton

Possible Lib Dem win:
Carshalton and Wallington
Eastbourne
Richmond Park
Oxford West and Abingdon

Seats the Lib Dems just miss out on:
Lewes
Orkney and Shetland
Bath
Cheltenham
St Ives

 

[Y961 XBU]

Except for Twickenham i think the Lib Dem gains are thanks to Labour supporters propping them up to get the tories out of the seat, I did consider the Lib Dems taking Oxford West & Abingdon but i think the tories will cling on with a very minor majority, I am glad to see Sheffield Hallam fall as thats what Nick Clegg deserves for siding with the tories

 

[Tetchytyke]

i think the Lib Dem gains are thanks to Labour supporters propping them up to get the tories out of the seat

I think the south west will be very interesting, as there's a lot of pro-Brexit sentiment down there (and that's why the Lib Dems were booted out in 2015).

There are a lot of seats down there where the predicted votes for the Lib Dems and Labour are- combined- higher than the vote for the Tory candidate. If vote-swapping gets any traction to get rid of the Tories, like it did in 1997, it could be very interesting.

 

[northwichcat]

I think the south west will be very interesting, as there's a lot of pro-Brexit sentiment down there (and that's why the Lib Dems were booted out in 2015).

Even though Nick Clegg said he'd support a referendum on EU membership (like the Conservatives, UKIP and Greens), while Ed Miliband said he'd oppose one and said a vote for Labour was a vote to remain in the EU?

 

[phoenixcronin]

As a proud LibDem I must say Farron is a terrible leader. Clegg was much better.

Farron was asked by Andrew Neil if he would rule out a coalition with Labour, and his answer was really wishy washy and weak.

He needs to make it clear that the LibDems stand for values which in many instances are not compatible with Corbyn's Labour. For example NATO, free trade, intervention in Syria, ISIS etc.

Farron is really crap at giving people reasons to vote for the LibDems

 

[Y961 XBU]

Clegg is the reason your Party is in the mess its in, i am glad to see he is finally paying the price and that is for him to lose his seat, as for seat predictions i now feel that Carshalton & Wallington will fall to the tories but i feel that the Lib Dems will indeed win Cheltenham and Oxford West & Abingdon thanks to tactical voting

 

[Busaholic]

St Ives is a near certainty for the LibDems based on the posters being displayed. They lost the seat last time (but not by much) and then the ratio of posters displayed Tory/Libs was 50/50. I can only speak of Penzance, the constituency's largest town, and neighbouring settlements but now over 90% are for LibDems with the rest divided between Tory and Labour (the Greens and UKIP have both butted out)

 

[northwichcat]

St Ives is a near certainty for the LibDems based on the posters being displayed. They lost the seat last time (but not by much) and then the ratio of posters displayed Tory/Libs was 50/50. I can only speak of Penzance, the constituency's largest town, and neighbouring settlements but now over 90% are for LibDems with the rest divided between Tory and Labour (the Greens and UKIP have both butted out)

Looking at the YouGov information again, St Ives is seen as a seat which the Conservatives will scrape by a narrow margin so I'll add that to my earlier post.

The number of posters displayed can be misleading. In Tatton if the party with the most posters will win then Labour are going to take the seat, if it's the party with the most support on social media then the Lib Dems will win, while reading comments posted under news articles online makes it look like an independent candidate has the most support. The reality is none of those are the favourite.

 

[Busaholic]

Looking at the YouGov information again, St Ives is seen as a seat which the Conservatives will scrape by a narrow margin so I'll add that to my earlier post.

The number of posters displayed can be misleading. In Tatton if the party with the most posters will win then Labour are going to take the seat, if it's the party with the most support on social media then the Lib Dems will win, while reading comments posted under news articles online makes it look like an independent candidate has the most support. The reality is none of those are the favourite.

We'll know on the 9th.

 

[northwichcat]

We'll know on the 9th.

Indeed. YouGov have changed some of their predictions now with Edinburgh West, Lewes, St Ives, North Norfolk and Bath now all being possible Lib Dem wins with Orkney and Shetland now expected to be a seat the Lib Dems will retain, while Sheffield Hallam and Southport are predicted to be seats they will lose opposed to seats they may lose.

 

[Y961 XBU]

I think the only reason Sheffield Hallam remained Lib Dem last time is the tories was in 2nd so people did not want to vote Labour in case it let them in, now that Labour are in 2nd that seat will fall, Even experts was saying if Clegg called a bi election at any time that seat will fall

 

[northwichcat]

I think the only reason Sheffield Hallam remained Lib Dem last time is the tories was in 2nd so people did not want to vote Labour in case it let them in, now that Labour are in 2nd that seat will fall, Even experts was saying if Clegg called a bi election at any time that seat will fall

I still fail to understand why so many South West Lib Dem seats became Conservative in 2015 as a result of the coalition. Were the voters not thinking or were they angry at the Lib Dems for stopping the inheritance tax threshold being changed to £1m or something?

Just looking at some results from 2015 some Labour voters switching to Lib Dem won't do enough to win seats like Oxford West and Abingdon. It'll also need Conservative voters to switch parties (like what happened in Richmond Park.) It's also interesting UKIP didn't field a candidate in the Richmond Park by-election to try and prevent a pro-EU MP getting in but are fielding a candidate this time.