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Labour and HS2

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Watching Ed Balls on the Andrew Marr programme this morning (Sunday 26th) during the last two minuets he was discussing HS2 with William Hague. Gave his usual speech about rising costs and keeping them under control but also commented that he didn't think the arguments had yet been made that it was the best way to spend the money.

Speaking on BBC 1’s Sunday Politics show Mr Balls reiterated his reservations about the costs of the HS2 rail scheme arguing that the projected spending on the new rail link has already “spiralled out of control.”

He said: "We need more capacity but there’s no blank cheque, the costs have spiralled out of control and we need to know this is the best way to spend a huge amount of public money.
“We supported HS2 but we need to make sure that the costs are down and that this is in the end the best way to spend the money and I don’t think that’s an argument which has yet been won by the supporters."

Conversely though when Hague was talking about the need to increase capacity on the rail network especially for the North (both men represent constituencies in the north) and the best way to do that was by building a new line to a modern standard Balls was nodding in agreement.

So do people think Labour will vote in favour for HS2, and if not what alternatives will they put forward to increase rail capacity?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/pol...Hs2-supporters-have-not-won-the-argument.html

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/jan/26/ed-balls-hs2-cost-high-speed-rail
 
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anthony263

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I think Labour will continue HS2 unless something happens which causes costs to rise really sky high.

Lets face it it will be one of the bigest infrastructure projects in this country and think about the number of jobs. Labour also know that if they pull the plug on HS2 to conservatives will really take advantage
 

Tobbes

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I think that Labour have played a reasonably canny game on HS2; note, not a helpful one, but tactically astute. There are many Labour MPs who support any effort to improve the competitiveness of the English northern cities, and HS2 promises to do that - and will create lots of jobs in the build. Ergo, binning HS2 will annoy many Labourites in the north.

However, by insisting on to value for money, Ed Balls can try to burnish his economic credentials; and by using the £50bn estimate as the starting point (knowing full well that £14bn is contingency largely for Phase 2), "savings" (otherwise known as the contingency being reduced as the detail design is undertaken) will allow Labour to support it.

Cynical? Moi?

Either way, I think HS2 will get built; and we need to be thinking about Phase 3 to the Central Belt to ensure that it can be built as soon as possible.

Tobbes
 

Ironside

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I think it's still just opportunism, supporting it but claiming its costing too much to get the support of those who also worry about the costs.
 
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I think Labour will continue HS2 unless something happens which causes costs to rise really sky high.

Lets face it it will be one of the bigest infrastructure projects in this country and think about the number of jobs. Labour also know that if they pull the plug on HS2 to conservatives will really take advantage

I think that Labour have played a reasonably canny game on HS2; note, not a helpful one, but tactically astute. There are many Labour MPs who support any effort to improve the competitiveness of the English northern cities, and HS2 promises to do that - and will create lots of jobs in the build. Ergo, binning HS2 will annoy many Labourites in the north.

However, by insisting on to value for money, Ed Balls can try to burnish his economic credentials; and by using the £50bn estimate as the starting point (knowing full well that £14bn is contingency largely for Phase 2), "savings" (otherwise known as the contingency being reduced as the detail design is undertaken) will allow Labour to support it.

Cynical? Moi?

Either way, I think HS2 will get built; and we need to be thinking about Phase 3 to the Central Belt to ensure that it can be built as soon as possible.

Tobbes

True, also there is strong support for HS2 amongst most Northern MP's and the Labour lead councils of the core cities, Birmingham, Manchester, Liverpool, Leeds, Nottingham (and Derby), Sheffield, Newcastle, plus Glasgow and Edinburgh all favour HS2, so will Ed Balls and the leadership really want to go against them?
 
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455driver

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When in opposition Labour will say whatever they think will get them voted in, once they are in they will do whatever they want!

There is no similarity between the 2 things.
 

Johnuk123

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Balls will not sanction HS2 so unless he's replaced which is very unlikely it won't be built.
 

jon0844

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Reintroducing the 50p tax band will solve everything though! I mean, it will raise so much that HS2 could probably be funded from that alone, with plenty left over...

Balls will not sanction HS2 so unless he's replaced which is very unlikely it won't be built.

Oh yes he will. I've said all along (and it's been said just now above) that Labour is making damn sure to try and make out that HS2 can only be built if it offers value for money. By inflating the cost, and saying the party will fight hard to keep costs under control, when it turns out to cost far less - everyone will associate that with Labour making sure the Tories didn't allow costs to spiral out of control.

And that's what all of this is about. It's about making Labour score points, even though it originally came up with the idea. But that's not enough in itself, as there are people worried about HS2 for various reasons - and this is a great way to divert attention by not talking too much about whether HS2 is a good idea, or whether the routes are right, but sticking to the cost issue.

To be honest, Labour is sort of helping make sure HS2 happens because we all know that the £50bn and £80bn (along with those who take an already inflated figure and then say 'Ah, but you can probably quadruple it') is nonsense.

I did notice the news earlier this week about Crossrail being on time and on budget.
 
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NotATrainspott

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The fact that all three major GB political parties support it is the reason why HS2AA et al get so much coverage in the media. If there were some real disagreement between the parties then there would be no need for the BBC and other generally centrist media to give so much credence to the complete rubbish put forward by the antis. UKIP supported high-speed rail in their 2010 manifesto (including an HSR to Exeter, by the way) so their current opposition is without doubt a political ploy to pick up votes in the Chilterns in 2015. Further investment in rail (whether through HS2, upgrades or whatever combination of any route) is the only thing which all political parties support in the UK simply because it is by far the least bad option for the future of this country. I expect to see many other investments pulled out of the hat around election time.
 

bnm

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Keeping costs in check? The Conservatives?

The party that has just signed off on a six-fold increase in salary to HS2's new Chief Executive, Simon Kirby and a five-fold increase to the Chairman, David Higgins.

Yes, £750,000 and £591,000 a year are a drop in the ocean against the already eye-watering cost of HS2, but are they really the going rates for a Chief Executive and Chairman of a large publicly funded capital project? David Higgins is being paid the same for this one project as he was for overseeing the whole of Network Rail.

The new Chief Exec is one of the best engineers* in the world according to Patrick McLoughlin. Purely coincidence that interim Chairman (full time from March), David Higgins found this world class engineer, Simon Kirby, at Network Rail. Where David Higgins was the previous Chairman. Cronyism of the worst kind, overseen by a supine Secretary of State. Trebles all round.

*As far as I can see, Simon Kirby is not an engineer in the classical sense. He has an MSc in Engineering Business Management.
 

jon0844

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UKIP is stupid (not that it will ever get into power, so it doesn't really matter) because when HS2 does happen, it will look out of touch for opposing it. Not that I think HS2 is going to harm its already shaky reputation given the recent gay marriage flooding debacle!

Labour won't look bad. As it was only ever 'concerned about the cost', not the project itself, so...

...If it comes in on budget - it played its part making sure that happened while in opposition.

...If it goes well over - well, Labour never supported that and it's just the usual Tory mis-management.

...If Labour gets back into power, having always talked about the already inflated budget means it has a nice little buffer zone in case things go out of control when it's in power (and can't so easily pass the buck!).
 

IKBrunel

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Labour has nothing to gain by canning HS2, wouldn't gain any votes in shire counties, those will go to ukip, might gain a few in Cambden, but thats a labour stronghold anyway. If they can it they upset both the unions and the engineering / construction industries who are generally in favour.
 

Kettledrum

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Balls will not sanction HS2 so unless he's replaced which is very unlikely it won't be built.

There's no evidence or logic to support this argument.

Whereas other posters have commented on the strong political support from labour MPs and city council leaders which would put huge political pressure on ED Balls to support it, you simply say "Balls will not sanction HS2".


0/10
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Labour has nothing to gain by canning HS2, wouldn't gain any votes in shire counties, those will go to ukip, might gain a few in Cambden, but thats a labour stronghold anyway. If they can it they upset both the unions and the engineering / construction industries who are generally in favour.

The shire counties most affected by HS2 are not exactly a hotbed of Labour supporters. Any delusion of Labour siding with them and disappointing the influencial northern cities and council leaders in their strongholds and the trade union supporters is not one which will last after the general election.

I imagine Labour will play their political cards very carefully to cast sufficient doubt over the scheme, that the traditional Tory supporters in the chilterns and the shire counties affected might make an anti-Tory vote (e.g. UKIP) that might cost the Tories a few seats. After the election, it will be back to business as usual.
 

CalderRail

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Oh yes he will. I've said all along (and it's been said just now above) that Labour is making damn sure to try and make out that HS2 can only be built if it offers value for money.

Cobblers.

What Labour are trying to do is create the appearance of a balanced budget by claiming they would not fund HS2 but put the money into paying the benefit bill.

OFC, that'll wash with some people, but it's a lie because HS2 investment is self-re-funding, whereas benefit expenditure isn't.
 

HSTEd

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Well thats the same logic that the Conservative Party used to justify the selling off of the Royal Mail despite the fact that selling it actually net worsens the budgetary situation.
 
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Good article in the Telegraph where Sir David Higgins talks about HS2 and mentions Ed Balls and Labour.

On current timings, HS2 will take about 20 years to build. Its construction will span four, perhaps five parliaments. Consensus, he says, “is absolutely fundamental. It can’t be a project that chops and changes”. With a £42  billion price tag (in 2011 prices), the public have to be persuaded that it is necessary, and affordable. An immediate problem is the Labour party. Its initial support – “it was their idea!” – has been qualified by Ed Balls, who has put a question mark over it by claiming the argument for HS2 is not won.
So are Labour on board or not? “They’re behind it but they want to be convinced that it will be managed responsibly.” Labour “worry it’s a vanity project” that will waste money and time that could be expended better elsewhere. “These are all legitimate questions,” Sir David concedes. He and the shadow chancellor have discussed the issue, and he will brief the Labour leadership as well as ministers on his findings this month. He urges Labour to consider who the biggest beneficiaries will be. The cities in the North all suffer from below average GDP per capita. “They are all Labour areas, they all underperform,” he says. HS2 will connect them to London and the world, and make them richer.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukn...is-always-ticking-says-Sir-David-Higgins.html
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Some interesting comments from Ed Balls himself in today's Telegraph about the HS2 hybrid bill

Ed Balls "I am not sure anybody is realistically thinking there is any realistic chance of this Hybrid Bill going through by next spring. People have been talking about longer timescales than that." He said that Labour - as the Opposition - was planning to "scrutinise" hard the Bill when it was going through Parliament. "Let's wait and see," he said. "Our job as the Opposition is to scrutinise this hard in Parliament. That is what we are going to do."

Mr Balls continued: "We have not had the date for the second reading of the legislation and there is going to be a lot of scrutiny in Parliament.
"It is not my job to duck the difficult questions. I have got to say at all times - this is the Treasury's role - 'do the costs add up, are you really bearing down on the costs, are you ensuring this is properly value for money?'"

Labour could not decide to back the scheme now when it had not seen a report by Sir David into the scheme, which is being presented to ministers and Labour later this month. He said: "What I am not going to do is before we have even seen David Higgins report is give it the seal of approval - I think that would be an imprudent thing to do."

Interesting that he mentions David Higgins report, looks like this could make his mind up either way. :?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/ukn...-could-delay-law-to-kill-off-42bn-scheme.html
 
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jon0844

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I only care what Andrew Gilligan has to say on the matter in a future Telegraph article! He must be busy working on another angle, possibly blaming the money spent on trying to build HS2 as being the reason people in the south west have lost a major railway line to the bad weather.
 

dggar

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I only care what Andrew Gilligan has to say on the matter in a future Telegraph article! He must be busy working on another angle, possibly blaming the money spent on trying to build HS2 as being the reason people in the south west have lost a major railway line to the bad weather.

I thought that was due to lax morals.;)
 

poshfan

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When in opposition Labour will say whatever they think will get them voted in, once they are in they will do whatever they want! There is no similarity between the 2 things.
Agree, although it's the same whoever is in opposition. I think a lot of the time the main policies of both main parties are very similar, so the end up making a big song and dance over relatively trivial differences, or resort to attacking the way the government are implementing a policy which they basically agree with.
 

Altnabreac

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Ah yes, those damn gay marriages. Forgot about that!

The Marriage and Civil Partnership (Scotland) Bill that passed Holyrood yesterday also contained a minor amendment allowing marriages to take place anywhere (not just in specific licensed premises).

Imagine how upset the Daily Telegraph could be if that led to two men getting married on a high speed train...
 

DynamicSpirit

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Cobblers.

What Labour are trying to do is create the appearance of a balanced budget by claiming they would not fund HS2 but put the money into paying the benefit bill.

OFC, that'll wash with some people, but it's a lie because HS2 investment is self-re-funding, whereas benefit expenditure isn't.

Benefit expenditure is partly (although not completely) self-refunding because the people receiving the benefits spend the money, which (a) generates increased tax revenue, and (b) creates some jobs, therefore cancelling out some (but not all) of the initial benefit spending.

Having said that, clearly HS2 is self-refunding to a far greater extent.
 
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More fresh speculation in the Telegraph about HS2 and Labour

Ed Miliband’s Shadow Cabinet is split over whether to support the High Speed 2 rail project, casting major doubt on the viability of the £50 billion scheme.

While Mr Miliband is a supporter of HS2, Andy Burnham, the Shadow Health Secretary, is one of four shadow ministers to break ranks and criticise the plan in damning terms.

Mary Creagh, the Shadow Transport Secretary, is also under intense pressure from her local party to withdraw Labour’s support for the scheme, while others in the Shadow Cabinet are privately opposed to HS2.

Senior party sources suggested that Labour could scrap the plan or slow down the construction timetable to avoid the need for difficult cuts to public spending if Mr Miliband wins next year’s election.

Cross-party support for HS2 is seen as essential because it requires a long-term commitment of taxpayer funds before it is completed in 2033.

The latest disclosures will fuel concerns among Conservative MPs that Labour’s support for HS2 is “soft” and that the party is poised to ditch the project, leaving David Cameron saddled with an unpopular and expensive policy.

At last year’s Labour conference, the Shadow Chancellor, Ed Balls, warned that there would be “no blank cheque” from his party, a statement that caused panic in Whitehall that Labour support was wavering.

The Prime Minister subsequently challenged Mr Miliband to come clean, warning that without cross-party backing, the “essential” new fast line linking London with the North would collapse.

Mr Miliband’s office responded by formally pledging the party’s support and ordering Labour MPs to vote in favour of the Bill paving the way for the detailed proposals to move forward.

However, shadow cabinet ministers have now raised fresh objections to the plans.

Mr Miliband’s close ally Michael Dugher, the shadow Cabinet Office Minister, Yvette Cooper, the Shadow Home Secretary, Jon Trickett, the deputy party chair and Mr Burnham have criticised HS2 in formal submissions to the consultation on the new route.

All are under significant pressure over HS2 in their constituencies, which will be affected by the second phase of the proposed line, which runs from Birmingham to Manchester and Leeds.

Mr Burnham, the MP for Leigh in Greater Manchester, said that while he could “see a case for” HS2 overall, he cannot support the government’s current plans for his region.

“They deliver maximum disruption and minimal benefit to an area which has amongst the poorest access to rail transport of any in the country,” Mr Burnham said.

The project would involve a depot in his constituency and would seriously damage the natural landscape of Leigh and Wigan, which is only “slowly recovering” from its history of coal mining and heavy industry.

“HS2 needs to go back to the drawing board on its proposed depot,” he said.
“It is clear to me that the Government’s current proposal for HS2 in the North West fails to maximise its potential benefit to our region and its taxpayers,” he wrote.

“Whilst acknowledging the need for progress and infrastructure to devolve economic power from London to the wider regions, it cannot be allowed to be at the expense of local communities, whose greatest resource is the green space in which they reside.

“To maximise the opportunity of a major infrastructure plan for my constituents, I am only able to offer my support to the HS2 proposal if my concerns over the impact on residents and the need for a station to serve the people of Leigh are implemented.”

Last week, Mr Balls said that final approval for the Parliamentary Bill setting out the detailed work for the London to Birmingham “phase one” of HS2 was likely to be delayed until after the next election because the plans are so complex.
This led to fears that it would be easier for Labour to cut or scrap the project if the party returned to power next year.

One shadow cabinet source said: “Ed Balls is highly sceptical about HS2 and others are as well.”

Miss Cooper, who is married to Mr Balls, has also written to the government to warn of her constituents’ concerns over the project. She criticised the inadequate consultation process and poor information provided to residents by HS2 Ltd and the government.

Miss Cooper also suggested changes to the route. It is understood that her submission did not state one way or the other whether she supports HS2 in general.

Mr Trickett, the shadow minister without portfolio and MP for Hemsworth in West Yorkshire, is also said to have made a submission which criticises the government’s consultation process.

Mr Dugher, the MP for Barnsley East, said the proposed phase two route passed directly through his constituency. “Understandably, the proposed route is a matter of great concern to me and to many of my constituents,” he said.
He said he was “supportive in principle of HS2” but raised specific concerns in the consultation over the value for money of the project as well as other local issues.

“If this consultation shows there is overwhelming public opinion that the route should be altered, then HS2 should listen and look at proposals to do so.”
One shadow cabinet source said Labour could scrap the project or scale it back after the election.

“I do not support HS2,” the source said. “This is a huge amount of money. It has to be shown that it is better value for money than other rail and road infrastructure projects.”

The source predicted that the question of the party’s support for the project “will become a live issue” at the next election.

Scrapping the project or slowing it down could release billions of pounds for other policies and avert the need for “sensitive” spending cuts elsewhere.
“I do not believe that the Treasury have produced a proper business case. If Labour wins the election, that work will have to be done and it is hard to see how it would be convincing,” the source said.

While Miss Creagh, the MP for Wakefield, has publicly supported HS2, her local Labour council has voted strongly to oppose the plan.

Councillor Jean Askew said: “We are totally against it. We would much prefer the money to be spent on the infrastructure within our network.

“The MPs have to listen to us,” she said. “We put them where they are.” Mrs Askew claimed that Miss Creagh personally supported their objections.
Maureen Cummings, another Labour member of Wakefield Council, said she had gathered 1,000 signatures for a petition against HS2 from her ward alone.
Mrs Cummings said she disagreed with Miss Creagh’s policy of supporting HS2. “She is the Shadow Transport Minister and she has her views. I would like her to support the residents of our district because the residents of our district have quite clearly said that they are not convinced about HS2.”

Miss Creagh, the shadow transport secretary, insisted that "Labour supports HS2 because we must address capacity problems".

"Labour MPs are rightly engaging with HS2 on how the line can deliver the best economic and social benefits to their local communities," she said. "The Government must use this consultation properly to address local concerns and to make sure that those affected are properly compensated."

Andrew Bridgen, a Conservative MP opposing HS2, said he feared that Labour were preparing to abadon the project shortly before next year's election, leaving the Tories with a "damaged and discredited" policy on polling day.
"This is cynical politics by Labour because HS2 is already costing taxpayers £1 million a day," he said.
 

The Ham

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One risk Labour have is that passenger numbers (given they are growing faster than the 2009 model used for determining if HS2 was needed) could grow to above the current opening of Phase 1 before the 2020 election.

That could cause Labour a political headache when it comes to fighting the 2020 election as the Tories can turn around and point out how foolish Labour were for cancelling a project that they started and how passenger numbers have exceeded Labour's own growth model.
 

HowardGWR

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One risk Labour have is that passenger numbers (given they are growing faster than the 2009 model used for determining if HS2 was needed) could grow to above the current opening of Phase 1 before the 2020 election.

That could cause Labour a political headache when it comes to fighting the 2020 election as the Tories can turn around and point out how foolish Labour were for cancelling a project that they started and how passenger numbers have exceeded Labour's own growth model.
Do politicians think *that* far ahead?
 
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