Is there demand for more sleeper services?

[SussexLad]

I agree with most of what is said here. I think the main undeserved market is south west to scotland or even northern England. However a big market would be Swansea / Cardiff/ Newport to Scotland. Could go via Cheltnam and Birmingham and get extra passengers there too.

One of my big questions is a train would surely be more profitable as a double decker, but would any of the UKs loading gauge permit a this? (admitedly not a lot of head room because of how tight it is). I read an article ages ago about a concept for future travel in the UK about double decker electric trains into existing infrastructure.

 

[CW2]

I agree with most of what is said here. I think the main undeserved market is south west to scotland or even northern England. However a big market would be Swansea / Cardiff/ Newport to Scotland. Could go via Cheltnam and Birmingham and get extra passengers there too.

One of my big questions is a train would surely be more profitable as a double decker, but would any of the UKs loading gauge permit a this? (admitedly not a lot of head room because of how tight it is). I read an article ages ago about a concept for future travel in the UK about double decker electric trains into existing infrastructure.

There was a Bristol to Glasgow / Edinburgh sleeper which had run for decades until finally being withdrawn in (I think) the late 90's / early noughties. It variously conveyed through portions from Plymouth and even Poole. I think it relied on a base load of service personnel, with full fare tickets paid for by the Government (i.e. the taxpayer). I used it on numerous occasions in the 80s.
I'm not convinced the same basic demand exists now. I'd use it occasionally, but I'm in the minority. Who do you think currently travels from South Wales to Scotland in such volumes as to make a sleeper service viable (i.e. high fare paying and time sensitive)?

 

[popeter45]

I agree with most of what is said here. I think the main undeserved market is south west to scotland or even northern England. However a big market would be Swansea / Cardiff/ Newport to Scotland. Could go via Cheltnam and Birmingham and get extra passengers there too.

One of my big questions is a train would surely be more profitable as a double decker, but would any of the UKs loading gauge permit a this? (admittedly not a lot of head room because of how tight it is). I read an article ages ago about a concept for future travel in the UK about double decker electric trains into existing infrastructure.

if there was enough demand for such a service i could see it working far better as a combined South West/South Wales sleeper splitting at Bristol or Birmingham possibly during a loco swap, maybe 4-6 coaches for each part like the fort William portion of the Highlander as that realistically would prob suffice for demand

the only ever double Decker Train in the UK had to omit a corridor to work and i highly suspect that would be a big no for modern approval especially if you wanted ability to provide food onboard

 

[43096]

I agree with most of what is said here. I think the main undeserved market is south west to scotland or even northern England. However a big market would be Swansea / Cardiff/ Newport to Scotland. Could go via Cheltnam and Birmingham and get extra passengers there too.

Under-served? On what basis? Just love the way people make up some sort of demand for a service in these threads with zero evidence to support it.

One of my big questions is a train would surely be more profitable as a double decker, but would any of the UKs loading gauge permit a this? (admitedly not a lot of head room because of how tight it is). I read an article ages ago about a concept for future travel in the UK about double decker electric trains into existing infrastructure.

Double deckers aren't going to happen on existing GB infrastructure.

 

[JamesT]

If there is demand for travel from end to end in Britain, I suspect a resurrection of some of Flybe’s old routes are more likely. Unless some punitive taxation is introduced, flights are cheaper and can run on a commercial basis.

 

[SussexLad]

There was a Bristol to Glasgow / Edinburgh sleeper which had run for decades until finally being withdrawn in (I think) the late 90's / early noughties. It variously conveyed through portions from Plymouth and even Poole. I think it relied on a base load of service personnel, with full fare tickets paid for by the Government (i.e. the taxpayer). I used it on numerous occasions in the 80s.
I'm not convinced the same basic demand exists now. I'd use it occasionally, but I'm in the minority. Who do you think currently travels from South Wales to Scotland in such volumes as to make a sleeper service viable (i.e. high fare paying and time sensitive)?

I think you are thinking similar to me. I would propose one section from Plymouth leaving at say 8pm. South Wales is just an idea, there are a few service companies down their due to cheap rents. They have a large need to meet corporate clients face to face.

Under-served? On what basis? Just love the way people make up some sort of demand for a service in these threads with zero evidence to support it.


Double deckers aren't going to happen on existing GB infrastructure.

No passive aggressiveness statemtns please. I believe this on the basis that is a significant amount of flights to and from Bristol Airport and Scotland plus Exeter had quite a few Flybe routes. Further a massive naval base in Plymouth and a significant one in Faz Lane, both interlinked heavily. They both have large Babcock Marine workforces. Further, running via bristol would connect it to to Abbey Wood. Plus strong tourism both ways could sustain a 6 days a week service.

if there was enough demand for such a service i could see it working far better as a combined South West/South Wales sleeper splitting at Bristol or Birmingham possibly during a loco swap, maybe 4-6 coaches for each part like the fort William portion of the Highlander as that realistically would prob suffice for demand

the only ever double Decker Train in the UK had to omit a corridor to work and i highly suspect that would be a big no for modern approval especially if you wanted ability to provide food onboard

Its a possibility, not sure tho as both service might work better if they split along route so they can serve 2 or 3 main cities. Mainly Glassgow and Endirbugh are the ones that I think of. I'm aware of the weird contraptions, hoping for something a bit better!

 

[popeter45]

Its a possibility, not sure tho as both service might work better if they split along route so they can serve 2 or 3 main cities. Mainly Glassgow and Endirbugh are the ones that I think of.

could do like some continental route and alternate what portion serves where every other day?
if there was a more unified plan for sleepers would consider running each portion as part of the London Sleepers till Calstair there
would reduce number of loco's and paths needed and replace the need to stable a 92 there after the Edinburgh portion attaches to the Glasgow portion

 

[SussexLad]

could do like some continental route and alternate what portion serves where every other day?
if there was a more unified plan for sleepers would consider running each portion as part of the London Sleepers till Calstair there
would reduce number of loco's and paths needed and replace the need to stable a 92 there after the Edinburgh portion attaches to the Glasgow portion

I dont think alternating is a good way to get business customers to use it. They just want to use it when they need it, not plan around when it runs.

 

[CBlue]

Considering the level of subsidy the Scottish sleeper from Euston requires, even when it loads well, any other sleeper service in this country is pretty much a non-starter.

 

[SussexLad]

Considering the level of subsidy the Scottish sleeper from Euston requires, even when it loads well, any other sleeper service in this country is pretty much a non-starter.

There is also a plan by serco to make it profitable so when you manage the service correctly it is possible. Im thinking 2 trains that split into 2 at bristol and join up into another 2 trains to 2 Scottish cities. Could easily be profitable.

Plus if you had pick up and drop off rights along the way you'd get quite a bit from ordinary tickets whilst also bringing in a lot of new revenue by competing with air and road travel.

 

[London Trains]

PORTION 1:

Penzance - same stops as Sleeper - Exeter - Taunton - Weston Super Mare - Bristol

PORTION 2:

Swansea - Neath - Port Talbot - Bridgend - Cardiff - Newport - Bristol

PORTION 3:

Portsmouth Harbour - Southampton - Salisbury - Westbury - Bath - Bristol

ALL COMBINED:

Bristol - York - Darlington - Durham - Newcastle - Edinburgh - Glasgow




The route between Bristol and York can change daily with different works taking place. The route can do any of (not stopping at):

Bristol - Cheltenham - (either Cross City or Camp Hill) - Birmingham New Street - (either via Tamworth or Nuneaton and Leicester- Sheffield - (either via Leeds or Doncaster or both) - York

Bristol - Cheltenham - (either Cross City or Camp Hill) - Birmingham New Street - (either via WCML or Chase Line or both) - Stafford - (via any possible combination of Stoke, Macclesfield, Crewe, Wilmslow, Stockport, Airport Line, Warrington and Newton) - Manchester Victoria - (via either Stalybridge or Rochdale) - Leeds - York

Bristol - as above - Stockport - Stalybridge - Huddersfield - Leeds - York

Bristol - Bristol Parkway - curve avoiding Didcot - Oxford - Banbury - (via Solihull or Coventry) - Birmingham New Street - any route shown above - York

Bristol - route shown above - Banbury - Coventry - Nuneaton - Stafford - any route shown above - York

Bristol - Bristol Parkway - Didcot - Reading - Staines - (via either Richmond or Hounslow loop) - (via either Acton or Clapham Junction) - up any of the WCML, MML or ECML

The timetabled and fastest route would be Bristol - Cheltenham - Cross City Line - Birmingham - Tamworth - Derby - Sheffield - Doncaster - York

 

[Bald Rick]

What is it with the sleeper and motorail that causes a thread like this to pop up every year or so?

There are no markets serving this country, domestic or international, where a sleeper is remotely viable. And that includes those that run today. By far and away the largest 300 mile+ market in his country is London - Scotland, and as we know every single overnight passenger is subsidised to the tune of well over £100 a trip.

There is no chance of new sleepers, none.

 

[Bald Rick]

There is also a plan by serco to make it profitable so when you manage the service correctly it is possible. Im thinking 2 trains that split into 2 at bristol and join up into another 2 trains to 2 Scottish cities. Could easily be profitable.

This is not correct. The Serco plan is (was) to make it profitable for Serco. Had Covid not intervened that would have been a long, long way away. Even so, it will always require subsidy from the Scottish Government. The sleepers have never made money in the last 30 years; I used to work for them.

Note also the fares on the sleepers to Scotland, and the market it serves. Neither are likely on any other flow. And pre-Covid (but post new stock) the Scotland sleepers were usually close to full occupancy - and still lost loads of money.

 

[SussexLad]

This is not correct. The Serco plan is (was) to make it profitable for Serco. Had Covid not intervened that would have been a long, long way away. Even so, it will always require subsidy from the Scottish Government. The sleepers have never made money in the last 30 years; I used to work for them.

Note also the fares on the sleepers to Scotland, and the market it serves. Neither are likely on any other flow. And pre-Covid (but post new stock) the Scotland sleepers were usually close to full occupancy - and still lost loads of money.

The lowlander which has many business people leaves too late for people to have dinner on it. A major source of potential profit. Given the fact that it is a longer and more expensive journey the fares cab reasonably be £250 per room each way. Assuming room occupancy of approx 80% you'd be looking at £20+ million a year. Plus food revenue and seated passengers. Plus revenue from the UK wide ticketing system.

Profitable for serco still means profit. With the efficiencies of spliting and merging two trains together it easily makes up for a small long term subsidy.

 

[AlbertBeale]

If there is demand for travel from end to end in Britain, I suspect a resurrection of some of Flybe’s old routes are more likely. Unless some punitive taxation is introduced, flights are cheaper and can run on a commercial basis.

It doesn't need punitive taxation, simply the removal of the effective subsidy (in that fuel for planes isn't taxed in the way that much other fuel is), and charging airlines for the real costs they impose on society (and on the ecosystem). Taking real "costs" into account, flights are not cheaper.

 

[37424]

The lowlander which has many business people leaves too late for people to have dinner on it. A major source of potential profit. Given the fact that it is a longer and more expensive journey the fares cab reasonably be £250 per room each way. Assuming room occupancy of approx 80% you'd be looking at £20+ million a year. Plus food revenue and seated passengers. Plus revenue from the UK wide ticketing system.

Profitable for serco still means profit. With the efficiencies of spliting and merging two trains together it easily makes up for a small long term subsidy.

No it doesn't if it requires a large subsidy from the Taxpayer, and if you think offering Diner on the Lowlander will get rid of the Subsidy I think your in dream land.

There is no justification for any more Sleeper Services subsidised by the Taxpayer other than the ones that already exist. If you can come up with Sleeper Services that don't require a subsidy then fine, but I very much doubt that is going to happen.

 

[JonathanH]

The lowlander which has many business people leaves too late for people to have dinner on it. A major source of potential profit. Given the fact that it is a longer and more expensive journey the fares cab reasonably be £250 per room each way.

The whole point of the lowlander is to allow people to take part in evening activities before they travel on it (otherwise you would just catch the 1930 trains from Euston or 1900 train from Kings Cross). Providing food is not a major source of potential profit. Are you suggesting that if the lowlander was slower, it could be even more expensive?

 

[SussexLad]

No it doesn't if it requires a large subsidy from the Taxpayer, and if you think offering Diner on the Lowlander will get rid of the Subsidy I think your in dream land.

There is no justification for any more Sleeper Services subsidised by the Taxpayer other than the ones that already exist. If you can come up with Sleeper Services that don't require a subsidy then fine, but I very much doubt that is going to happen.

The whole point of this idea is that no subsidisation is required. It is taking advantage of every possible opportunity, like seated passenhers along the way. The higher average cost of the tockets would also help achieve this and is justified by the extortionate fairs on alternative train services.

The whole point of the lowlander is to allow people to take part in evening activities before they travel on it (otherwise you would just catch the 1930 trains from Euston or 1900 train from Kings Cross). Providing food is not a major source of potential profit. Are you suggesting that if the lowlander was slower, it could be even more expensive?

I dont buy that. It leaves later because its a shorter distance. From a profit perspective the evening activities can be facilitated on the train. I dont know where you got the idea of the lowlander being slower, its already slow!

 

[CBlue]

The whole point of this idea is that no subsidisation is required. It is taking advantage of every possible opportunity, like seated passenhers along the way. The higher average cost of the tockets would also help achieve this and is justified by the extortionate fairs on alternative train services.



I dont buy that. It leaves later because its a shorter distance. From a profit perspective the evening activities can be facilitated on the train. I dont know where you got the idea of the lowlander being slower, its already slow!

Yep, dreamland as a previous poster mentioned. Either that or you're on the wind-up.

 

[43096]

No passive aggressiveness statemtns please. I believe this on the basis that is a significant amount of flights to and from Bristol Airport and Scotland plus Exeter had quite a few Flybe routes. Further a massive naval base in Plymouth and a significant one in Faz Lane, both interlinked heavily. They both have large Babcock Marine workforces. Further, running via bristol would connect it to to Abbey Wood. Plus strong tourism both ways could sustain a 6 days a week service.

You are in cloud cuckoo land if you think it is viable. This topic keeps coming back up and the answer is the same every time.

 

[Bald Rick]

The lowlander which has many business people leaves too late for people to have dinner on it. A major source of potential profit. Given the fact that it is a longer and more expensive journey the fares cab reasonably be £250 per room each way. Assuming room occupancy of approx 80% you'd be looking at £20+ million a year. Plus food revenue and seated passengers. Plus revenue from the UK wide ticketing system.

Profitable for serco still means profit. With the efficiencies of spliting and merging two trains together it easily makes up for a small long term subsidy.

I don’t think you understand the economics of train service provision, particularly for low capacity trains that see revenue earning trips 6 times a week, on routes with low demand, and little prospect of high fares.

How much would dinner have to be to offset the £170+ loss from each passenger journey on the Caledonian Sleeper? (Split very roughly 2/3 Government subsidy, 1/3 Serco loss). Or put another way, how much demand would there be if the fare for every passenger journey was to be increased by £171? Including the seats and all the internal to Scotland trips in the Highlands?

Worth noting that the current Caledonian Sleeper operation costs £61m pa, and takes in £25m pa passenger revenue.

 

[RT4038]

It doesn't need punitive taxation, simply the removal of the effective subsidy (in that fuel for planes isn't taxed in the way that much other fuel is), and charging airlines for the real costs they impose on society (and on the ecosystem). Taking real "costs" into account, flights are not cheaper.

You may well be right, but unfortunately the genie of cheap air travel has been uncorked, and it is not easily going to be put back. Any step change in fares would be seen as 'punitive' taxation, even if it was merely levelling up to other modes. That is not to say the issue shouldn't be tackled, but this is most likely by a gradual real increase in air fares. Lots of people like travelling by air in one hour, rather than travelling by train in 5 times as much, and certainly not in a sleeping car.

 

[SussexLad]

I don’t think you understand the economics of train service provision, particularly for low capacity trains that see revenue earning trips 6 times a week, on routes with low demand, and little prospect of high fares.

How much would dinner have to be to offset the £170+ loss from each passenger journey on the Caledonian Sleeper? (Split very roughly 2/3 Government subsidy, 1/3 Serco loss). Or put another way, how much demand would there be if the fare for every passenger journey was to be increased by £171? Including the seats and all the internal to Scotland trips in the Highlands?

Worth noting that the current Caledonian Sleeper operation costs £61m pa, and takes in £25m pa passenger revenue.

The caledonian sleeper is full of inefficiencies tho. Locos sitting around to wait for the train. Meaning you have to maintain more and pay for more. Also, because the calidonian sleeper only picks up or sets down at a station, not both, they get limited revenue from the standard revenue pot. Which you clearly haven't considered as you suggest raising intern scotland ticket prices which don't exist!

On the calidonian sleeper you can get cheap seats from £140. That realistically should be at least £200. Also why don't we have 3 berth sleepers for those that want cheap seats and make them share?

You are in cloud cuckoo land if you think it is viable. This topic keeps coming back up and the answer is the same every time.

Yes it a very abstract thought but I firmly believe its viable. The only thing that is concerning to me is how do you make it comfortable and quiet enough for business travelers to get a good night's sleep.

 

[Bletchleyite]

The caledonian sleeper is full of inefficiencies tho. Locos sitting around to wait for the train. Meaning you have to maintain more and pay for more. Also, because the calidonian sleeper only picks up or sets down at a station, not both, they get limited revenue from the standard revenue pot. Which you clearly haven't considered as you suggest raising intern scotland ticket prices which don't exist!

Yes, they do. The Fort William service can be used by day passengers between Edinburgh and FW and vice versa including intermediate stations. The Inverness or Aberdeen (forget which) is a commuter service in one direction.

 

[JonathanH]

The caledonian sleeper is full of inefficiencies tho. Locos sitting around to wait for the train. Meaning you have to maintain more and pay for more. Also, because the calidonian sleeper only picks up or sets down at a station, not both, they get limited revenue from the standard revenue pot. Which you clearly haven't considered as you suggest raising intern scotland ticket prices which don't exist!

On the calidonian sleeper you can get cheap seats from £140. That realistically should be at least £200. Also why don't we have 3 berth sleepers for those that want cheap seats and make them share?

Three berth sleepers won't work in the UK loading gauge. Sharing berths has been discontinued. What you suggest for the cost of the seats (presumably £100 each way) is almost certainly beyond what the market will support year round - it is already what is charged in the high peak.

I am not sure how you envisage an end to locomotives hanging around. There is a Scotrail (or Cross Country) alternative for all of the internal travel opportunities where the sleeper doesn't currently carry such passengers.

 

[RT4038]

The caledonian sleeper is full of inefficiencies tho. Locos sitting around to wait for the train. Meaning you have to maintain more and pay for more. Also, because the calidonian sleeper only picks up or sets down at a station, not both, they get limited revenue from the standard revenue pot. Which you clearly haven't considered as you suggest raising intern scotland ticket prices which don't exist!

On the calidonian sleeper you can get cheap seats from £140. That realistically should be at least £200. Also why don't we have 3 berth sleepers for those that want cheap seats and make them share?



Yes it a very abstract thought but I firmly believe its viable. The only thing that is concerning to me is how do you make it comfortable and quiet enough for business travelers to get a good night's sleep.

Why wouldn't these SW-Scotland sleepers have an equal (or greater) amount of inefficiencies?

 

[JonathanH]

I dont buy that. It leaves later because its a shorter distance. From a profit perspective the evening activities can be facilitated on the train. I dont know where you got the idea of the lowlander being slower, its already slow!

What timings do you suggest that will make it possible to serve meals on the lowlander? Do people really want to be eating at 10pm (and running the risk that the food isn't available)?

 

[Bletchleyite]

If you increased the price of a seat, particularly on the Lowlander, that would mean losing people to the coaches. A seat is competing on price.

You could potentially change it to a 2+2 arrangement to get more people in (but please, please not Fainsa Sophias - it would have to be a decent reclining seat like the Grammer ICE3000), but making it more expensive will just lose passengers.

An Off Peak Return from London to Glasgow is £151.10 (single 105.70), and with a reservation is valid on CS. There is no point attempting to charge more than that, as an overnight seated journey has less value than a faster daytime one.

 

[Journeyman]

The caledonian sleeper is full of inefficiencies tho. Locos sitting around to wait for the train. Meaning you have to maintain more and pay for more. Also, because the calidonian sleeper only picks up or sets down at a station, not both, they get limited revenue from the standard revenue pot. Which you clearly haven't considered as you suggest raising intern scotland ticket prices which don't exist!

On the calidonian sleeper you can get cheap seats from £140. That realistically should be at least £200. Also why don't we have 3 berth sleepers for those that want cheap seats and make them share?

Yes it a very abstract thought but I firmly believe its viable. The only thing that is concerning to me is how do you make it comfortable and quiet enough for business travelers to get a good night's sleep.

With all the best will in the world, I think you're being very naive. Caledonian Sleeper have done what they need to do to modernise and retain business, but they will never, ever make money without shedloads of government cash.

3-berth compartments are impossible in the UK loading gauge, and the previous Standard class berth offer, which made it highly likely you'd share with a stranger if travelling alone, was hugely unpopular and losing the company business. This is why it was axed some time ago - GWR got rid of it even earlier. Unfortunately the proposed budget berth option - the pod idea - wasn't technically viable.

This has been researched to death by people that know what they're doing. Sleepers are absolutely not viable in modern conditions in a country this size, and it's only political considerations keeping the existing ones running.

 

[Bald Rick]

It doesn't need punitive taxation, simply the removal of the effective subsidy (in that fuel for planes isn't taxed in the way that much other fuel is), and charging airlines for the real costs they impose on society (and on the ecosystem). Taking real "costs" into account, flights are not cheaper.

Taking the tax point, the whole point of U.K. Air Passenger duty is that it is recognised that unilaterally levying tax on air fuel would be largely futile as the larger airlines would simply adjust their schedules such that domestic flights follow an international leg and ferry the fuel over.

Doing a quick calc, the APD for a typical London - Scotland domestic flight will bring tax revenue of £2,200, based on an A320 and average load factors of 90% (easyJet’s load factor last year was 91.5, currently it’s 84)

An A320ceo will burn about 3000-3500 litres of Jet A1 for the trip; an A320neo will burn about 2500-3000 litres. Let’s say 3000. If Jet A1 was taxed at the same rate as Road fuel (57.95p / litre, plus VAT on the whole cost) and with the price of Jet fuel as it is now it would be about 75p/litre, which would make it £2,250. note the similarity to the APD income.