Is The Scottish Boom Over?

[d9009alycidon]

Just been looking through the Transport Scotland website for any future phases of improvements, reopenings and electrification and there seems to be very few projects being outlined once East Kilbride electrification is complete. Fife Electrification is mentioned but details and deadlines are not specified.
Looks to me like the progress made over that last couple of decades is running out of steam. Could it be that with a Scottish Election due next year and the ruling SNP percieved as not being in the strong position it once was and of course money being tight, that any future plans have been put on hold, hopefully temporarily.

 

[hwl]

Just been looking through the Transport Scotland website for any future phases of improvements, reopenings and electrification and there seems to be very few projects being outlined once East Kilbride electrification is complete. Fife Electrification is mentioned but details and deadlines are not specified.
Looks to me like the progress made over that last couple of decades is running out of steam. Could it be that with a Scottish Election due next year and the ruling SNP percieved as not being in the strong position it once was and of course money being tight, that any future plans have been put on hold, hopefully temporarily.

Barnett consequentials for the Scottish Government collapsed during the Rishi government and have increased in the budget last month, but the impact of the increase won't be seen immediately. This doesn't create a stable enlivenment for planning and they also need to be more realistic (things will take longer) than their previous plans.

 

[takno]

Just been looking through the Transport Scotland website for any future phases of improvements, reopenings and electrification and there seems to be very few projects being outlined once East Kilbride electrification is complete. Fife Electrification is mentioned but details and deadlines are not specified.
Looks to me like the progress made over that last couple of decades is running out of steam. Could it be that with a Scottish Election due next year and the ruling SNP percieved as not being in the strong position it once was and of course money being tight, that any future plans have been put on hold, hopefully temporarily.

I don't think it's much to do with the upcoming election. It's more that there isn't any headroom for much of anything in the Scottish capital budget. To an extent that has been true generally since Covid, but the situation has also been compounded by the cancellation of HS2, which created significant consequentials for Scotland (but not for Wales).

 

[Russel]

What big projects remain in Scotland on a 'need to be done' basis rather than a 'nice to have' basis?

Other than HST withdrawal, is there anything that actually needs attention in the short term?

 

[A S Leib]

What big projects remain in Scotland on a 'need to be done' basis rather than a 'nice to have' basis?

Would electrifying Dunblane to Dundee be relatively easy, and could it lead to DMUs being scrapped altogether on Glasgow – Dundee services, or is there too much interworking with Glasgow – Aberdeen and Fife services for that to give much benefit alone?

 

[Railsigns]

Would electrifying Dunblane to Dundee be relatively easy?

No. Electrification won't happen before resignalling takes place along the whole route and Perth is remodelled, to avoid wasting considerable funds on abortive work.

 

[AMD]

Other than HST withdrawal, is there anything that actually needs attention in the short term?

Also fleet replacement for the 318s & 320s - the 318s are now 38 years old and the 320s are only a few years behind.
And then the 156s & 158s, again they will be getting really old once a replacement rolls along.

 

[Porty]

I don't think it's much to do with the upcoming election. It's more that there isn't any headroom for much of anything in the Scottish capital budget. To an extent that has been true generally since Covid, but the situation has also been compounded by the cancellation of HS2, which created significant consequentials for Scotland (but not for Wales).

There are a lot of calls on capital spending in the next few years. In transport terms there's a backlog of ferry replacements, a lot of political pressure for the A9 dualling and the not insignificant problem of huge demands for capital spending on the NHS. The funding of National Treatment Centres (currently on hold) seems to be critical to getting waiting lists down. Rail electrification probably falls lower down the pecking order unfortunately.

 

[takno]

There are a lot of calls on capital spending in the next few years. In transport terms there's a backlog of ferry replacements, a lot of political pressure for the A9 dualling and the not insignificant problem of huge demands for capital spending on the NHS. The funding of National Treatment Centres (currently on hold) seems to be critical to getting waiting lists down. Rail electrification probably falls lower down the pecking order unfortunately.

Realistically I'd be spending a certain amount just to keep the teams ticking over, but I'd be paying far more attention to NHS investment. The A9 largely shouldn't be done, but it figured so large in the pre-Sturgeon SNP offering that they are bound to prioritise it at this point

 

[Scotrail314209]

Surely Tweedbank would be a case for electrification within the next ten years or so. Personally, I think it should’ve been wired from the start, they should potentially do the Maryhill line to try and oust more DMUs from suburban work in Glasgow.

 

[yorksrob]

Better to have boomed and lost than to never of have boomed at all, I suppose.

 

[Falcon1200]

they should potentially do the Maryhill line to try and oust more DMUs from suburban work in Glasgow.

I agree; If there is any money, at all, for further electrification, it should be focussed on relatively short routes eliminating islands of diesel traction. The Maryhill line as mentioned, and Barrhead/Kilmarnock/Barassie. Not the waste of money which is the Haymarket/Dalmeny scheme, which no trains will be able to make use of for many years to come.

 

[Ghostbus]

It seems pretty obvious that a governing party with the ferry fiasco, a budget black hole arising from transport policies, and an ongoing police investigation into party finances all looming large in their rear view mirror, would not want to head to the polls with current or future long term transport projects as the manifesto headline.

It all begs the question, why are we still allowing such things to be managed by governments with mandates that last a maximum of five years and can stand or fall on the incompetence of one individual? We should be restricting such things to minimal or indeed zero political interference beyond the initial approval.

"Yes, we do want a new ferry/bridge/railway line, here's the budget, here's the due date, crack on. " - Yours, Minister.

After all, that seems to be the reason the Queensferry Crossing was such a success that according to Audit Scotland the rest of the country should be learning from it.

Queensferry Crossing project 'well managed' and 'value for money'

A spending watchdog says the project to build a £1.34bn bridge across the Forth delivered value for money.

www.bbc.co.uk

BBC News story about the Queensfery Crossing audit.

Auditor General Caroline Gardner said: "There is much the public sector can learn from the way Transport Scotland managed the project and it's important that the good practice is shared more widely.

And just like the ferries, the crossing was a strategically important project that could not be delayed any further, even though the financial outlook was much changed from when it was first mooted.
It's in the politician's interest to do this too. After all, there's no guarantee you will be in office, much less live long enough, to reap the political credit for such success. It was after all, Alex Salmond who gave final approval for the crossing, and was in office for much of the planning and implementation years too.

It still wouldn't solve the current problem, where one suspects the SNP are deciding not to even approve projects for political rather than financial reasons. But that's easily fixed by the electorate registering their disapproval no later than May 2026. The benefit of devolution (but ironically not independence) being that transport policy matters far more to the voters than it does in a general election.

 

[lachlan]

Realistically I'd be spending a certain amount just to keep the teams ticking over, but I'd be paying far more attention to NHS investment. The A9 largely shouldn't be done, but it figured so large in the pre-Sturgeon SNP offering that they are bound to prioritise it at this point

At least it seems the A96 dualling has been kicked into the long grass.

 

[Trainbike46]

I agree; If there is any money, at all, for further electrification, it should be focussed on relatively short routes eliminating islands of diesel traction. The Maryhill line as mentioned, and Barrhead/Kilmarnock/Barassie. Not the waste of money which is the Haymarket/Dalmeny scheme, which no trains will be able to make use of for many years to come.

The haymarket/dalmeny scheme will be used from day 1, by LNER initially, and then by Scotrail when they get round to introducing the HST replacements, and the new stock for the fife circle

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 4 Dec 2024 ==

Better to have boomed and lost than to never of have boomed at all, I suppose.

yes, I guess that is true - some nice new railways were built and not insignificant electrification work has happened, though I continue to hold out hope for more upgrades

 

[chuff chuff]

Also fleet replacement for the 318s & 320s - the 318s are now 38 years old and the 320s are only a few years behind.
And then the 156s & 158s, again they will be getting really old once a replacement rolls along.

I thought in the original plan the old electrics and the 156s were the first to be replaced but as far as I'm aware their has only been an announcement how ever vague about replacing the HSTs.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

Better to have boomed and lost than to never of have boomed at all, I suppose.

I love it.

I assume, that since certain grid feeders/connections/big electrical kit has been ordered, then at the minimum, some electrification from these points will still occur?

 

[Falcon1200]

The haymarket/dalmeny scheme will be used from day 1, by LNER initially, and then by Scotrail when they get round to introducing the HST replacements, and the new stock for the fife circle

Do LNER change between electric and diesel on the move, and if so, is the appropriate infrastructure being provided for this?

When are Scotrail's new trains expected to enter service?

 

[A0]

Surely Tweedbank would be a case for electrification within the next ten years or so. Personally, I think it should’ve been wired from the start, they should potentially do the Maryhill line to try and oust more DMUs from suburban work in Glasgow.

Tweedbank would be better done with battery units.

The cost of National Grid High Voltage connections in remote areas is astronomical. Battery units which could do that journey exist now.

 

[Railsigns]

Do LNER change between electric and diesel on the move, and if so, is the appropriate infrastructure being provided for this?

Do they, and yes, the automatic power changeover balises etc. will be moved from Haymarket to Dalmeny.

 

[lauderlight]

Tweedbank would be better done with battery units.

The cost of National Grid High Voltage connections in remote areas is astronomical. Battery units which could do that journey exist now.

Isn't there an national grid underground cable practically next to the track at Tweedbank? Basically between the road and the track. isn't there "danger underground electric cables" signs next to the road. There's also a pretty substantial electricity substation just across the Tweed in Langlee. it always reminded me of the public information films of the 70s whenever I passed it (the "JIMMMYYYY!!!! frisbee one).

I wouldn't describe Tweedbank as remote either. Remote compared to London suburbia but pretty well connected in terms of trunk roads in the Borders, In a fairly flat bottomed river valley. When i hear the word "remote" i think of rannoch moor or Riccarton junction, not a suburb of Galashiels.

 

[Falcon1200]

Do they, and yes, the automatic power changeover balises etc. will be moved from Haymarket to Dalmeny.

Interesting, thanks. But I still think wiring just 8 of the 125 odd miles between Haymarket and Aberdeen should not have been a priority over more useful routes!

 

[takno]

Interesting, thanks. But I still think wiring just 8 of the 125 odd miles between Haymarket and Aberdeen should not have been a priority over more useful routes!

I thought the point was more that it's a pretty easy 8 miles and enables more workable use of battery stock on the Fife routes. Whether the money has run out for the rolling stock subsequent to the work starting is beside the point.

What other easy 8 mile long routes are there which are already connected to an area with reasonable grid capacity, and would there be any spare electric units to run on it anyway?

 

[Trainbike46]

Tweedbank would be better done with battery units.

The cost of National Grid High Voltage connections in remote areas is astronomical. Battery units which could do that journey exist now.

Isn't there an national grid underground cable practically next to the track at Tweedbank? Basically between the road and the track. isn't there "danger underground electric cables" signs next to the road. There's also a pretty substantial electricity substation just across the Tweed in Langlee. it always reminded me of the public information films of the 70s whenever I passed it (the "JIMMMYYYY!!!! frisbee one).

I wouldn't describe Tweedbank as remote either. Remote compared to London suburbia but pretty well connected in terms of trunk roads in the Borders, In a fairly flat bottomed river valley. When i hear the word "remote" i think of rannoch moor or Riccarton junction, not a suburb of Galashiels.

On top of that, Network Rail Scotland has already ordered the grid connections from National Grid, so the whole point is a bit moot, as the gridg connections are coming no matter what. Even for battery use, charging facilities would require grid connections anyway

 

[Falcon1200]

What other easy 8 mile long routes are there which are already connected to an area with reasonable grid capacity, and would there be any spare electric units to run on it anyway?

I would suggest a scheme which would have been much more use, and much sooner, is the partly single/partly double 17 miles from Barrhead to Kilmarnock, plus the short single line round to Barassie; Carlisle and Girvan/ Stranraer would be served by connections at Kilmarnock and Ayr, therefore the half-hourly Glasgow/Kilmarnock service would become entirely electric (thereby also making better use of the overheads to Barrhead). Obtaining additional EMUs should not have been an issue given for example Scotrail's experience with the Class 365s.

 

[d9009alycidon]

I would suggest a scheme which would have been much more use, and much sooner, is the partly single/partly double 17 miles from Barrhead to Kilmarnock, plus the short single line round to Barassie; Carlisle and Girvan/ Stranraer would be served by connections at Kilmarnock and Ayr, therefore the half-hourly Glasgow/Kilmarnock service would become entirely electric (thereby also making better use of the overheads to Barrhead). Obtaining additional EMUs should not have been an issue given for example Scotrail's experience with the Class 365s.

That was one I would have expected, it would effectively eliminate all diesel services at Glasgow Central Station. The Stranrear/Ayr/Kilmarnock/Dumfries/Carlisle services could be combined with passengers changing to electric services at Kilmarnock.

 

[Charged up]

That was one I would have expected, it would effectively eliminate all diesel services at Glasgow Central Station. The Stranrear/Ayr/Kilmarnock/Dumfries/Carlisle services could be combined with passengers changing to electric services at Kilmarnock.

Unfortunately the short sighted TS rail project team decided that wiring the 22kms on the East Kilbride branch was far more "important" than this more practical scheme. Continuing south of Barrhead on the route towards Kilmarnock would have offered far better vfm and less disruption to rail users. Part of the savings from the c.£80M it will cost to wire the EK line could have been used to fit batteries to existing EMUs and allowed c156s to be withdrawn in 2025 rather than 2 or 3 years later.

Off lease EMUs from elsewhere in GB should then have been secured to provide more suitable and efficient rolling stock than 35+ year old fleets to allow a significant passenger benefit asap. We are now looking at 2028/29 before the older diesel stock will be replaced, due to procurement being delayed, as funding has been wasted on inappropriate and inefficient scheme which will not deliver any timetable or capacity enhancements for EK route passengers.

 

[Transilien]

Unfortunately the short sighted TS rail project team decided that wiring the 22kms on the East Kilbride branch was far more "important" than this more practical scheme. Continuing south of Barrhead on the route towards Kilmarnock would have offered far better vfm and less disruption to rail users. Part of the savings from the c.£80M it will cost to wire the EK line could have been used to fit batteries to existing EMUs and allowed c156s to be withdrawn in 2025 rather than 2 or 3 years later.

If there’s no electrification to East Kilbride then diesel trains would still be running to Glasgow Central.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 7 Dec 2024 ==

Think about it this way, if East Kilbride and Kilmarnock are electrified then electric trains (without batteries) like the class 380 and 385 can run all services out of Glasgow Central bringing great flexibility and simplified maintenance to Scotrails fleet.

 

[Trainbike46]

I would suggest a scheme which would have been much more use, and much sooner, is the partly single/partly double 17 miles from Barrhead to Kilmarnock, plus the short single line round to Barassie; Carlisle and Girvan/ Stranraer would be served by connections at Kilmarnock and Ayr, therefore the half-hourly Glasgow/Kilmarnock service would become entirely electric (thereby also making better use of the overheads to Barrhead). Obtaining additional EMUs should not have been an issue given for example Scotrail's experience with the Class 365s.

While I agree with the usefulness of the scheme, 17 miles, part of which is double track, so even higher single track kilometres, is a larger scheme than the dalmeny scheme. Though I think it would be good for one of the next infrastructure schemes for Transport Scotland

 

[Falcon1200]

so even higher single track kilometres, is a larger scheme than the dalmeny scheme.

Agree, it would be a larger scheme, but would serve far more trains than Dalmeny, which for the foreseeable future is going to be of use to all of 4 trains a day, each way.