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If Hatfield hadn't happened...

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tbtc

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Inspired by this quote...

Again this goes back to the bold plans that were around in 2000. Long franchises with TOCs bidding for improvements like you suggested. There was also talk of station and line repoenings and even in mid 2000 things were looking very good for the railways. Then we had Hatfield and we all know the rest of the story.

...and to avoid hijacking a thread about HS2, I was wondering what you reckon the world would have looked like if Hatfield hadn't happened.

Before the crash in October 2000 (in which four people died), the railways were on the up-and-up. Post privatisation, there was freedom to innovate, companies (existing TOCs and prospective bidders) were coming up with novel ideas...

..now everything is dictated or dominated by Government (esp DFT), with TOCs concentrating on "managing" service provision, rather than being creative.

Then again, Hatfield did curb some of the worst excesses, refocussed the railway on "track" matters and that if it hadn't happened there then there may have been other (bigger?) accidents in the future...
 
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...Then again, Hatfield did curb some of the worst excesses, refocussed the railway on "track" matters and that if it hadn't happened there then there may have been other (bigger?) accidents in the future...
Oh not THIS old chestnut AGAIN :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll::roll:

Just how many MORE times do the Network Rail Infrastructure maintenance staff have to come on here and repeat again and again, that this vision of Network Rail as some sort of corporate BR-replacement demigod is simply the rose coloured vision of spotters and those with a Political drum to beat.
 

tbtc

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Oh not THIS old chestnut AGAIN :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll::roll:

Just how many MORE times do the Network Rail Infrastructure maintenance staff have to come on here and repeat again and again, that this vision of Network Rail as some sort of corporate BR-replacement demigod is simply the rose coloured vision of spotters and those with a Political drum to beat.

Note - I didn't directly mention Railtrack/ Network Rail - however in the weeks following Hatfield there was a significant increase in track inspections/ temporary speed limits etc - I remember a trip from Leeds to Edinburgh taking twice as long as before due to the sudden paranoia about lax standards (and the fear of it happening again).

If Hatfield hadn't happened then there was a chance of a similar or bigger accident happening elsewhere - that's not being political, that's no "rose tinted specs"...

For me, Hatfield knocked the ambition out of the railways. Maybe that was a good thing and companies concentrated on the "basics" again. But a lot of the things we complain about today could have been resolved with the ambitions that people had before Hatfield.
 

GB

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Oh not THIS old chestnut AGAIN :roll: :roll: :roll: :roll::roll:

Just how many MORE times do the Network Rail Infrastructure maintenance staff have to come on here and repeat again and again, that this vision of Network Rail as some sort of corporate BR-replacement demigod is simply the rose coloured vision of spotters and those with a Political drum to beat.

If it bothers you so much then feel free not to participate.
 

Hydro

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For me, Hatfield knocked the ambition out of the railways. Maybe that was a good thing and companies concentrated on the "basics" again. But a lot of the things we complain about today could have been resolved with the ambitions that people had before Hatfield.

To be honest getting something as basic and as vitally important as asset inspection and management should really come first. If you as an infrastructure owner can't actually manage the condition of the equipment you own, through your own personnel or contractors, then you aren't in the best position to start thinking about 140mph moving block signalling WCML if you can't look at your rail defect register from time to time.

That said, a lot of what Network Rail is built on now is from the foundations Railtrack laid (in fact most of the current NR standards are Railtrack standards, updated as necessary). Taking the contractors in house was really neither here nor there; in fact it would've been more of a cost saving exercise than a chest thumping "WE ARE SO MUCH SAFER NOW WE HAVE GOT RID OF THE COWBOY CONTRACTORS". All the personnel taken on board were in fact those so-called "cowboys" NR like to distance themselves from - all the blokes at my former MDU were all on Balfours T&C's still.

Hatfield was the kick up the arse that the asset inspection/management side of things badly needed. The amount of ESR and TSR's imposed showed just how little was known about the condition of the track. The inspection regime we have now post Hatfield (which is pretty intensive, being my current line of work) would be in place no matter if Network Rail/Railtrack/British Rail were in charge.

Maintenance of the railway is really, really all about the little things. Small innocuous little things like looking for millimetre sized cracks (I take it Hatfield investigation would've looked at the patrolmans reports or those of the the asset inspector, because RCF of that severity doesn't happen overnight), full catchpits, changing components and keeping your top and line smooth. Once a fault exists, it will increase exponentially if left or ignored. A full catchpit indicates a blockage, that's your drainage gone, that leads to a wet bed, that leads to voiding, that leads to a twist or a broken rail, that leads to a freight train on it's side and burning. Extreme, but if you can't keep a grip on those little things then your ambition counts for nothing.
 

AlexS

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It's funny how a mate of mine who is on the S&T says it was always ten times easier to get hold of any kit to do a decent quality repair when Serco ran their MDU. Anything you asked for delivered, good quality, when you needed it, in the quantity required.

Whereas nowadays things take forever to turn up, are often unavailable, and when they do turn up, are generally of crap quality.
 

Mr Spock

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Not sure why we go through things like this on a regular basis - Hatfield happened - end of story.

No amount of speculation can change what happened afterwards so why bother.
 

TomBoyRacer

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All joking aside,

I assume the original question assumed that maintanance had been handled properly and that the situation that led to Hatfield had not been allowed to develop and the aftermath that followed thus never materialised.

The truth is that I can't think of how else it would have gone given that it's been reality for so long.

What happened happened and we've now progressed.

Can I trust that this won't degenerate into a BR vs Railtrack vs NR argument?

Probably not.
 

CosherB

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It seems Hatfield demonstrated that Railtrack had an inadequate asset register, and the widespread TSRs following that accident were the result (I remember Cheshire to Euston taking well over 4 hours during that period).

NR seem to have done a good job in sorting that, but one wonders what went wrong between BR and Railtrack to lead to that asset register inadequacy.
 

tbtc

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Can I trust that this won't degenerate into a BR vs Railtrack vs NR argument?

I didn't intend it to turn into such.

Regardless of the BR days, there was a lot of ambition/ growth/ excitement in the early years of privatisation.

Compare those initial five(ish) years to the decade after Hatfield, its like the railways have become a lot more functional/boring and (apart from HS2) we've stopped dreaming of "space age" railways
 

bluenoxid

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The railways would have probably ticked over until 28th February 2001 (tenth anniversary this month) when 10 would die after a Landrover ends up on the ECML at Great Heck.
 

Old Timer

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Hatfield revealed a number of deficiencies, some which were resolved but others which were never addressed but actually went right into the heart of the accident, and given the way things are going will inevitably do so with another big incident.

Hatfield happened because rail which was suffering from rolling contact fatigue was not replaced when it should have been. It was not replaced because of the penalty regime that is imposed by the TOCs and FOCs, whose responsibility for Hatfield has been allowed to fall away from the limelight.

Vital Possessions were not able to be taken because of the TOCs/FOCs.

The TOCs/FOCs are actually one of the biggest threats to the Railway infrastructure as they are able to demand access whenever they wish, and continue a malign pressure on the time available for infrastructure maintenance and renewals. When things go wrong and staff get killed or injured because of this malign pressure, the TOCs / FOCs can simply sit in the background wielding power and influence but no responsibility or accountability.

It was not so long ago that Virgin Trains was claiming to actually know more about Infrastructure renewals than Railwaymen and Infrastructure Contractors with years of experience. At the time most of us felt that Virgin would have been better advised to concentrate on improving the very poor performance they themselves were providing.

Railtrack at its inception suffered from the influence of a BR senior officer better known for always being the bridesmaid, never the bride. He developed a loathing for BR managers and when Railtrack came into being its ethos was NOT to employ ex BR staff. It thus set out along the road of employing Consultants, graduates, and indeed anybody from any Industry but the Railway. Thus by the time Hatfield occurred most of the senior staff had neither the experience, nor the knowledge nor the intellect to understand the situation and the best way to approach matters. In true Safety Taliban style it knee-jerked where a more moderated approach would have been a better judgment.

This knee-jerk however has to be examined against the background of both Politics and Regulation, where Railtrack was on the back-foot so to speak and being attacked by a Regulator whose tenure was as disastrous as was his totally negative aggressive and belligerent approach was.

Hatfield developed because the TOCs/FOCs would not allow daytime blocks for the safety of track inspection staff. As the inspections could not be effectively done at night it became the practice for the track inspector to walk and observe from the cess effectively leading to a situation where the deterioration could not be properly monitored and tracked.

Sadly for various reasons, pretty much Political no-one explored the impact that the TOCs and FOCs had upon the ability of the Infrastructure Maintenance Contractor to discharge his legal obligations, in their insatiable dash towards maximising profits, and thus the maximisation of profit over safety.

This malign influence without fear of accountability or retribution is something that the new Government MUST tackle head-on. The ever growing demands to operate a 24/7 railway, something which no-one can actually demonstrate that the public really wants. This is something of a distraction but one that is already placing considerable pressures onto the Infrastructure, for the simple outcome of catering for a very small percentage of the travelling public who may want to travel late or overnight and mainly seem to consist of hoodies, ne'er do wells, fare evaders, drunks, drug addicts, and various nefarious characters people whose activities are best left unchallenged.
 

moggie

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OT - on this one I say spot on.

I see more and more convoluted and sophisticated implementation plans requiring multiple stageing of the signalling works to acheive the 'holy grail' of major signalling alterations within ever shortening shutdowns. All driven by the 'need' for TOC's / FOC's to regain access to the rails. It's not as if wheels free is guaranteed during these shutdowns. This requires equally convoluted and sophisticated designs in the signalling world with lip service being paid to the laid down standards of multi-stageing of design and implementation of works which followed Clapham - only now by teams far more fragmented by the ravages of privatisation of those teams than those in existence in 1988.

OK - fine when it all works - pats on the back all round etc etc. And, to their credit I freely acknowledge some fine successes have been acheived. But there are far too many in this industry who have forgotten / are ignorant the leasons spelt out in the Hidden enquiry, or worse who just don't think it's applicable any more and each remarkable success seems imho only to widen the gap between where we are now as an industry, and in terms of Hidden, perhaps where we ought to be.

If McNulty and the TOCS gets their way I just hope I'm no longer in the industry to see the fallout of yet another major systemic failure of a management structure that will place profit in front of sound engineering principles and judgement.
 

tbtc

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Hatfield revealed a number of deficiencies, some which were resolved but others which were never addressed but actually went right into the heart of the accident, and given the way things are going will inevitably do so with another big incident

In all seriousness, do you think that the odds are of another big incident happening in the next year or two?
 

Darandio

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It's a horrible thought, really is, but is complacency not an issue?

Big accident happens, everyone is briefed and everyone is on the lookout for the slightest detail and gets it rectified.

Months then years pass since the last "big one" and complacency comes into play again and something is missed.

Like I said, its a horrible thought and something that doesn't bear thinking about. My dad worked the track for 42 years up until retirement so I fully appreciate the job in hand with regards to maintenance, especially in the days he worked when any overtime was paramount even to make the simple ends meet, fatigue must have come into play. I imagine conditions now must be much, much better but still worry about complacency.
 

Old Timer

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In all seriousness, do you think that the odds are of another big incident happening in the next year or two?
Sadly I think the current way things are going this is going to be the inevitable eventuality.

As moggie has already shown, much is indeed wrong with our Industry.

The pressure from the TOCs/FOCs really is iniquitous. I would dearly love to see a senior TOC/FOC Manager in the dock sharing responsibility for an accident, and facing a stiff prison sentence. I would also like to see that for Network Rail managers as well.

Only when these parasites are brought to book and made to face the legal consequences of their bullying and intimidatory style of management will there be the sea-change that is so badly needed now. A period as one of HM guests would work wonders for Railway safety.

As each week goes by I see with a clearer eye just how much pressure senior Infrastructure Managers are subject to, simply because I am now out of that way of life (Is it a "life"?).

Working away from Network Rail has allowed me to gain a better life, a much less stressful life, yet one that I am increasingly enjoying as a professional Railwayman whose experience and judgement are valued by the various Client Railways and Railroads I now work with.

Their safety records and approach to safety is far superior to Network Rail's and without the masses of documentary evidence one seems to need to demonstrate that it is someone else's fault.

The next "big one" will result in the inevitable Politicisation by Labour of the Inquiry, which I predict will be chaired by someone whose intellectual capability may well be high but whose grasp of the realities of running a railway and the complex inter-relationships will be lacking.

The outcome will be similar to the nonesense that came out of the Hidden Inquiry which ran amok into areas that were never part of the accident but which allowed the then Conservative Government to field off ignorant and disingenuous criticism from self-serving Labour Politicians and headline seeking media organisations whose sole interest was in publishing soundbites and simplifying very complex issues to the point where what we ended up with was worse than the original problem. Indeed all Hidden did was to salve the desires for knee-jerk retribution by those affected. Hardly an intelligent way to run a business let alone a highly safety critical transport organisation.
 

12CSVT

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The railways would have probably ticked over until 28th February 2001 (tenth anniversary this month) when 10 would die after a Landrover ends up on the ECML at Great Heck.

And that was caused entirely by the prat who fell asleep driving down the M62.
 

Zoe

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And that was caused entirely by the prat who fell asleep driving down the M62.
But the Highways Agency respond by imposing 20 mph speed restrictions on motorways where they crossed railways. At the time it was suggested that the barriers at these locations were too short but unlike Railtrack, they did not take emergency measures to ensure there would not be a repeat of the accident.
 

Old Timer

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And that was caused entirely by the prat who fell asleep driving down the M62.
And someone who exemplies all the character traits to be found in the non-esssential user of such 4x4 vehicles.

Apparently he still will not accept responsibility, and has never apologised or shown remorse for his actions.

One wonder whether this could be used in defence of an immediate cull of all Chelsea Tractor drivers ? Surely a service to humanity and the environment if only in the reduced use of rubber for tyres ?

One of course would exclude their trophy wives ;)
 

Metroland

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NR seem to have done a good job in sorting that, but one wonders what went wrong between BR and Railtrack to lead to that asset register inadequacy.

The belief that everything could be handled by contracts, and it didn't matter if you didn't have the engineering know-how. You saw a lot of people involved in the railway industry at that time that were naive at best and out of their depth at worst.

I sort of agree with OT about the demands from TOCs. But there was this arrogance that took place within Railtrack concerning anyone who wanted to get in and do work too. Many signallers would turn down engineering blocks because they did not want to risk delaying trains and the disciplinary action that would follow, so they played it safe.

At times, infrastructure contractors turned up with very basic knowledge of the railway they wanted to maintain, and were turned away because they didn't have sufficient paperwork or came across as incompetent - for example didn't really understand local layouts concerning possessions.

Most of what followed Hatfield was politically motivated. There was very little, if any evidence that profit was put before safety, that was a construct of the unions and tabloids. Most of the problems were poor management, the structure, and industry in-fighting - nothing to do with making money. The railways always have been (at least since mid Victorian times) and still are paranoid about safety, crashes are not in the interests of the companies, who have always been threatened by prosecution by courts and politicians, fines, passenger boycotts and loss of traffic, thus affecting profits - especially when the press report the most minor of rail accidents and gloss over even quite major road accidents.

The Labour government at the time ran things through the press and was very aware of public pressure, often whipped up by very distorted reporting - making out the railways were a death trap, when safety was actually improving.

In fairness the last straw was when Railtrack could no longer remain solvent and were bailed out, only to pay the money to shareholders.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
Sadly I think the current way things are going this is going to be the inevitable eventuality.

As moggie has already shown, much is indeed wrong with our Industry.

The pressure from the TOCs/FOCs really is iniquitous. I would dearly love to see a senior TOC/FOC Manager in the dock sharing responsibility for an accident, and facing a stiff prison sentence. I would also like to see that for Network Rail managers as well.

But in fairness that pressure comes from the government and public for an 'on time' railway and good news stories.

The real root of the problem is the hysteria whipped up by the press, special interests, H&S zealots, the fear of being sued and other external pressure.

I have spent much time on this forum trying to convince people that actually the railway is not only very safe, but on the whole pretty punctual, but it is the nature of the beast that at times things go wrong - as it does in all transport. Some people, even seasoned enthusiasts, are actually quite surprised when the facts reveal things are not nearly so bad as they might seem. It is fashionable for railway workers, the press and indeed enthusiasts to moan about things, when the glass half full method might be more beneficial and appropriate.

We have become accustomed to seek blame, point fingers, judge from the comfort of our armchairs, and put unnecessary pressure on professionals that 99% of the time, despite prejudice, are actually trying to do a good job and most of the time succeed in doing so.

The problem with the blame seeking is it produces a whole sense of at times irrational decision making, which actually does more damage that it seeks to correct. For example, making the railways very expensive because politicians and the public do not trust them through distorted perception, while letting competing modes off the hook because of populist campaigns.
 
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Old Timer

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Good post Metroland, nothing in that which I do not agree with.

Under Railtrack at least the Infrastructure Maintenance/Renewals Contractors took responsibility for Possession Management. When this was taken over by Network Rail incidents soared, and when I baled out every week there was at least one incident, and usually several, a weekend most of which did not occur previously.

The whole infrastructure maintenance and renewals regime is being dictated covertly by the TOCs and the FOCs who simply do not want to allow the time needed to do the work. Grayrigg is the most recent and most obvious example and I do not know why HMRI has not been interviewing the TOC/FOC managers under caution, as it was their pressure that directly led to the inadequacies which in turn led to the derailment.

Sadly and ironically one of the worst offenders was the one to suffer, but also made even more money out of it.

This surely exemplifies the whole Alice in Wonderland situation where a TOC can force minimal maintenance time yet gain vast amounts of money for the infrastructure failures it causes as a result.

And when the inevitable happens TOCs can then sit on the moral high ground, and gain even more money in compensation. You really couldn't make it up.

And worst of all no-one actually CARES anymore.
 

Zoe

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After Clapham Junction there were calls for ATP to be installed across the network. Following Southall and Ladbroke Grove I remember more calls for the installation of ATP. However it was decided to install the cheaper TPWS (which wouldn't have prevented Southall) instead of ATP. Was this due to Railtrack wanting to cut costs or the dft ordering only TPWS to be installed?
 

moggie

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I think none of us in the industry believe for one minute that TOC's / FOC's are not anything else but serious about safety. It goes without saying that any form of accident is in no one's interest, company or individual. But this misses the point in my opinion. To avoid accidents your organisation must understand the how their everyday business behaviour influences the impact on their infrastructure.
Since privatisation the industry has been flooded with 'commercially' trained people with no (or little) practical understanding of railway engineering or rail operations. Commercial people percolate all areas of the industry in pursuit of the Holy Grail – the generation of profit. Whether we (as rail engineers) like it or not, they have their agenda and route one access to BOD's. Now I ask, how many of those who sit on BOD's understand commercial issues and RAIL Engineering issues or rail operations. Well the answer I would suggest will always be a significantly greater number on the commercial side than those with the same level of understanding of the rail engineering side. Then we have dilution of the engineers by those who have appeared from outside the industry into senior positions (defence / nuclear etc etc). So you end up with a BOD's with minority representation on a RAIL Engineering level.
The threat now is that the TOC's / FOC's come along with their new found ascendancy as rail infrastructure controller. Recent history will tell you that the new men in charge will pay little / no regard to opinion from their predecessors, more so, if the opinion is incompatible with the commercially driven plans for the infrastructure. After all, they think they know best (backed up with advice from those with zero stake holding of uninformed opinion due to lack of exposure at the ‘coal face’). More likely another clean sweep will take place at senior level with all new people put in place. So the new TOC/FOC organisation will be lead by the previous Service Operations people, highly biased (and trained) commercially as they are today with a subservient engineering level newly brought into the structure. Then they have the mammoth task of defining the new relationships to the infrastructure engineering teams on a commercial level - in house or contract delivery organisations reporting to the new TOC/FOC lead Infrastructure owner who I repeat will be subservient to the commercially driven Service Operations side. I could go on and on but you get the picture.
Getting to the point - if accidents caused by infrastructure failure are to be avoided the one thing that the new BOD’s will require above anything else is a detailed understanding of the infrastructure they now control (and own?). Without this how else are they going to make properly informed decisions over budgets for maintenance and renewal of the infrastructure and the time required to properly execute the works. This in the face of what they know best (running trains).That seems to me to require some serious inward gazing to question the behaviour TOC’s/FOC’s currently adopt in demanding access to the rails (in league with beleaguered and even more uninformed politicians). No, it’s not going to happen. For one they do not have the detailed understanding of their Infrastructure within their ranks in great enough numbers. They perhaps could employ them but will they listen to them – subservient. No - they are hell bent on gaining control because ‘they will know better’ on how to maintain / renew a railway using ‘smart’ and ‘innovative’ new methods. Those at the sharp end will be told to just get on with it this way or that way. All resistance will be stamped upon with the threat of commercial sanctions (you can forget the next tender period if you are unable to comply etc) or crudely simple loss of employment. They’ll even get in some new companies no doubt to shake the existing one’s from their complacency. God save us – seen it all before with Railtrack in their early years.
So, there’s my doomsday scenario – it may not happen – god forbid I hope it doesn’t but I lost faith in sensible and well thought through policies long before 1994.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---
After Clapham Junction there were calls for ATP to be installed across the network. Following Southall and Ladbroke Grove I remember more calls for the installation of ATP. However it was decided to install the cheaper TPWS (which wouldn't have prevented Southall) instead of ATP. Was this due to Railtrack wanting to cut costs or the dft ordering only TPWS to be installed?

Ironically ATP as trialled on BR would have made no difference at Clapham.
 

Old Timer

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Moggie

As usual a well thought out and expressed view.

However, let me offer an alternative opinion.

I doubt the Government are not aware that given the opportunity, a TOC/FOC may be tempted to sideline infrastructure maintenance, and they will be building in control measures to deal with that.

Your rather doomsday scenario suffers from one major defect, that being that for the greatest proportion of their life, Railways have been in the private sector, yet that is not seen historically as being detrimental to safety.

The Midland Railway, having suffered Hawes Jct, became the leading Railway Company in interlocking and signal controls. They developed the famous Midland Rotary Block, which effectively could not be over-ridden except by proceding down a route which required definite and pre-meditated acts to defeat the system.

Most of the world is served by private railway Companies, India probably being the one true exception these days. We do not see however daily accidents or constant funeral processions for deceased passengers.

Any Railway Company can only survive by maintaining or increasing patronage. You do not do this by crashing trains, killing people or operating an unreliable Railway. It thus makes considerasble commercial sense to operate your business in a safe and proper manner. If we needed any evidence of this we only have to look at the recent BP oil spillage in the Gulf of America.

I have never met a single senior Manager in a Company who is not concerned about safety and about the risks to their Company and business in the event of a big accident happening, indeed one very senior manager told me that he dreaded being told one day that one of his operatives had been killed or seriously injured whilst implementing traffic management arrangements. This is not a junior manager but a chap who is one down from the CE.

Whilst I do not seek to gainsay your view, I would offer my experience of operating at a senior level within a large Railway Infrastructure Contractor.

My performance bonus was based on several factors, however the one over-riding factor was that of the minimisation of accidents and incidents. A poor or reducing level of safety performance meant that any bonus was substantially reduced, thus it was not in my interests to turn a blind eye to safety.

My problem was the next level of management down, where immediate day to day decisions were taken and where influence over the men was exercised. In their attempts to do what they felt was right thye sometimes had to be reigned in slightly.

The biggest problem however was Network Rail who publicly spout great words about their "committment" to safety but as you and I know, even from the highest levels this is simply hype as they bully their Contractors into ignoring and disregarding any process or procedure that acts against Network Rail's intention to get work done, or signalling commissioned.

I have known CEMs removed from post simply because they pointed out that you cannot install S&C without a signed off scheme plan and a detailed signalling design. They have now removed or emasculated practically everyone who would stand in their way and stop them running riot through the Rules, processes and procedures.

You know this, I know this and more importantly even at the most senior levels, Network Rail knows it.

You criticise Railtrack but in fairness safety of the line remained with the IMC/IRC, where we could act professionally. That is no longer the case.

Network Rail capitalised, and continues to capitalise on this rose tinted view that it is a benign reinvention of BR. It is not, it is instead a malign source of threat to our Railway system as we know it. The RMT is completely emasculated as it pushed for the Network Rail scenario but now cannot and will not accept for reasons of political dogma that what it has assisted in creating is a vicious monster which is out of control and driven by profit over safety. The latest round of infrastructure redundancies should have demonstrated that, yet it was only when HMRI started to object that the RMT found its milk teeth, and biting with about as much impact.

The Government know this and are acting to deal with this. They have already started out on the clean-out.

Vertical integration of infrastructure maintenance does NOT bring with it the doomsday scenario you fear. With respect I feel that comes from either an emotional response or from a view tainted by political disinformation or belief.

If private railways were so bad then we would be reading of major accidents every day, it is noticable however that most of the accidents are actually occurring on the Government operated railways systems, the very system you seem to feel is superior.

I have worked in both nationalised and privatised Railways. I no longer work in the UK (thank God) and given a comparison between the approach to safety where I am now compared to Network Rail, the true Private sector leaves them looking like the amateur, over-manned, and penny pinching organisation they truly are.
 
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Metroland

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In all seriousness, do you think that the odds are of another big incident happening in the next year or two?

There are always accidents, in the 80s BR had two major accidents a couple of days apart. On the day of Clapham junction, there was a little publicised accident at Holton Heath.

There are 4-10 big airline accidents worldwide every year, on a system that carries as many passengers as UK rail. Far more people have been killed in road crashes than in both world wars put together.

The point is, there is a certain amount of inevitability, but the trend is thankfully on a downward trajectory thanks to a combination of technology and lessons learned.

Accidents on the railways tends to be 'systems failures', where a combination of events leads to the organisation falling over. I actually think one of the biggest problems of the current private railway (and this is not a problem of ownership) is specialisation and fragmentation.

There are very few people with the right combination of engineering, operations, entrepreneurial, organisational, and technical skills. That's nothing to do with the quality of people, rather to do with roles of people. In other words, you have too many fighting their own corners, with lack of appreciation of the big picture. This peculates from top to bottom, so for example signallers do not understand the day-to
-day stresses of a driver, and vice versa. Likewise, you have senior managers involved in the industry that lack engineering skills, and buy totally over specified kit at great expense and so on - hence poor cost control.

It was the great mantra of Railtrack that managers do not have to understand other people's roles to manage. Which was why they ignored issues that lead up to Ladbroke Grove and Hatfield. Therefore the problem wasn't who actually owned the railway, albeit public or private, that's an idealogical diversion, rather than what they owned and the competencies within the different organisations in order to get the job done from day-to-day. Which is why the outgoing chief executive of Railtrack described the fragmentation of the network as a management nightmare. But as we all know this was done as a result of economically ideological reasons from the Adam Smith institute rather than any practical reality.

In conclusion I would suggest if there was more vertical integration it would allow people to build a combination of skills during their career and indeed, have more opportunity and be able to see problems over the horizon. This can only be good for the railway in terms of cost control, safety, leadership and organisation.
 
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