IEP & Thameslink

[Class377/5]

Forgive me for not understanding that, but diverting via Bolton rather than the fast route? Diverting from where??

The only plans I have seen of Northern is to send the Southport - Airport service via Atherton instead of Bolton.

Sorry, me getting myself confused. Just looked at the Northern map. Via fast route meant via WCML which Northern don't actually run.

What does run through Bolton currently then?

We do need better than Pacers not similar for performance - there's currently too many Pacers that get caught up by faster trains currently causing knock on delays.

Let's say there's 120 extra EMUs introduced through current electrification schemes over the next 10 years, which sounds a reasonable number to me. We'll have hundreds of DMUs in need of withdrawal in the next 10 years and hundreds more to follow* with passenger numbers are expected to continue to rise.

* 142s, then 143s and 144s, then 150s. Other Sprinters and the 16xs will then follow over the following 5-10 years and then over the subsequent 5 years the 170s and 175s will be life-expired.

TPE's proposal is for the Liverpool-Newcastle fast via Victoria to be introduced in May 2014, with the current Airport-Newcastle service truncated at York. The other North TPE services e.g. Liverpool-Scarborough via Warrington will remain as they are. The Blackpool services will stay the same while Cumbria services will be reduced to a couple of through trains per day as Manchester Airport-Scotland goes hourly via Wigan.

Yes but when you saw hundreds over the the next 20 years, well the 16x in the south are either going to be displaced by EMU's or planned to be in the same sort of timescales as the pacers will be withdrawn.

The plan should be to just buy new DMU's but plan to wire more and more on the major routes allowing cheaper (and ultimately around longer) EMU units with the step change to at least 8 cars for everywhere in the north that's a commuter route to allow for growth. Yes some DMU's need ordering but do it as a rolling programme that's actually a planned programme and not happy chances.

Where do the Blackpool and Cumbria services go now?

 

[Nym]

Sorry, me getting myself confused. Just looked at the Northern map. Via fast route meant via WCML which Northern don't actually run.

What does run through Bolton currently then?

Standard off peak timetable is roughly:

1tph Airport - Blackpool North
1tph Hazel Grove - Preston
1tph Victoria - (Stations) - Bolton - Wigan Wallgate
1tph Victoria - Bolton - (Stations) - Wigan Wallgate
1tph Victoria - Bolton - Blackburn - Clitheroe
1tph Victoria - Blackpool North

1tph Airport - Picc - Bolton - Wigan Wallgate - Southport (Aparently to be sent via Atherton instead)
1tph Airport - Lancaster - Lakes / Scotland (Most will be going with Scotland moving to via Eccles)

Some additionals include:

Extentions of the Buxton terminator to Blackpool or Barrow at 27 past the hour.
Early morning Edinbrugh hat runs through at 0636.
Additional peak Blackburn services.

If both services sod off without replacement as described, it will remove a significant amount of seats from the busiest off peak services (most pax want to go to Piccadilly) and vital peak capacity, again, where everyone wants to be.

 

[tbtc]

What does run through Bolton currently then?

Eight/ hour between Bolton and Manchester.

At the northern end these go to/from...

• Glasgow/Edinburgh/Barrow (depending on the hour of the day)
• Blackpool
• Blackpool
• Preston
• Clitheroe
• Wigan
• Southport
• Kirby

...at the southern end they go to/from...

• Hazel Grove (via Pic)
• Manchester Airport (via Pic)
• Manchester Airport (via Pic)
• Manchester Airport (via Pic)
• Rochdale
• Victoria
• Victoria
• Victoria

(as things stand)

Diverting the Glasgow/Edinburgh services away from Bolton after the Eccles line is electrified will free up some capacity through Bolton (so take some longer distance passengers away) but will mean a gap of one train an hour too.

Where do the Blackpool and Cumbria services go now?

The TPE services run to Manchester Airport (the Northern service to Blackpool terminates at Victoria).
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

If both services sod off without replacement as described, it will remove a significant amount of seats from the busiest off peak services (most pax want to go to Piccadilly) and vital peak capacity, again, where everyone wants to be.

True.

Although they will take the Preston (etc) passengers who currently use those services away from Bolton.

But we are getting away from the Thameslink/ IEP discussion I guess.

 

[Class377/5]

Thanks guys. I see the level of problem is there is. Large amoun of people losing their favourite stop.

I'm guessing that the numbers are large enough that trying to put them on terms from Victoria to Piccadilly is too much for the trams to handle in peak?

 

[northwichcat]

Yes but when you saw hundreds over the the next 20 years, well the 16x in the south are either going to be displaced by EMU's or planned to be in the same sort of timescales as the pacers will be withdrawn.

The aspiration seems to be for 4 car units on Cardiff-Portsmouth, which is where cascaded 16xs fit in.

Where do the Blackpool and Cumbria services go now?

Manchester Airport via Bolton.

 

[Class377/5]

The aspiration seems to be for 4 car units on Cardiff-Portsmouth, which is where cascaded 16xs fit in.

Manchester Airport via Bolton.

Where was the 16x cascaded mentioned as I missed that.

I'd confused the TPE with Northern when you said Cumbria. Thanks for answering my confusion.

 

[anthony263]

I would prefer FGW to do what East Midlands trains have done on the Liverpool - Norwich route and run their class 158's in pairs on the Cardiff - Portsmouth Hbr route providing they can get enough units to do so.

Of course the class 165's do have a better door layout which should cut dwell times at stations especially during the peaks which is where the class 158's struggle

 

[jopsuk]

The aspiration seems to be for 4 car units on Cardiff-Portsmouth, which is where cascaded 16xs fit in.

But FGW's 16x fleet is all two or three car- with the long distance 166s all three car. Though I dare say that they'd be able to operate remarshalled as 4 and 2 car units- or perhaps 165 centre cars could be used?
Unless they mean to run pairs of 165s?

 

[tbtc]

I would prefer FGW to do what East Midlands trains have done on the Liverpool - Norwich route and run their class 158's in pairs on the Cardiff - Portsmouth Hbr route providing they can get enough units to do so.

Of course the class 165's do have a better door layout which should cut dwell times at stations especially during the peaks which is where the class 158's struggle

A three coach 166 will have a slightly better capacity than the three coach 158s that FGW use on the Portsmouth route due to being 3+2 seating, but it's not a big leap forward (compared to the capacity improvement that this line requires).

However there may well be EMUs running on the Cardiff - Bristol part (so DMUs only required for Bristol - Portsmouth?

 

[Nym]

Thanks guys. I see the level of problem is there is. Large amoun of people losing their favourite stop.

I'm guessing that the numbers are large enough that trying to put them on terms from Victoria to Piccadilly is too much for the trams to handle in peak?

Would be utterly pointless, if you're coming in from Bolton and want to be at Piccadilly, the tram adds a good 20mins to a reliable journey time.

A lot of passengers travel through Oxford Road, to get there you can walk from Salford Central in 10mins.

What I'd be putting in is a shuttle in the path of the old Lancaster paths between Oxford Road and Bolton, 4 car DMU running up and down.

 

[John55]

What I'm getting at is the uncertainty regarding EMUs could cause issues with awarding the next franchise which starts in 2014.

The current franchising process seems to expect a year from starting the process to the new franchisee taking over. On that basis the Northern & TPE process will start sometime February/March 2013. As long as the order for Thameslink replacement trains is placed before that date the rolling stock cascade plan will be known to the bidders for Northern.

Once the cascade plan is known Northern (or the new franchisee) can plan when to replace diesels with electric trains. This isn't like the situation in Scotland were Siemen's late delivery prevented (or at least wrecked) the introduction of the service from Airdrie to Bathgate. The diesels can carry on running Liverpool to Manchester and Wigan until the electrics arrive. By the time Blackpool - Manchester via Bolton is ready the 319s will have been in store for a year or more!

 

[Nym]

Or while we're waiting for the other lines to gain wires, we can cycle the 319s through a deep clean and refurbishment programme...?

 

[anthony263]

Or while we're waiting for the other lines to gain wires, we can cycle the 319s through a deep clean and refurbishment programme...?

Which is what I hope will happens as some of the class 319's could certainly do with it.

That said I could see them just being transfered straight into service with Northern and then gradually being refurbished.

That said the dual voltage class 319's would be ideal for use on the Cardiff - Portsmouth Hbr route if they could be cleared and the wires put up between Bath & Southampton

 

[Nym]

That said I could see them just being transfered straight into service with Northern and then gradually being refurbished.

This is what I was getting at;

We know we're looking at staged openings, if I remember my dates correctly...

2013 Manchester - Newton
2014 Liverpool - Newton
2015 Liverpool - Wigan via St Helens C
2017 Preston - Blackpool
2018 Salford - Preston via Bolton

Then, the stock requirements for each of these parts would be something like (With an optimistic timetable, northern only)...

2013:
4 Class 319 Units plus maintenance spares, 6 units if we have a minimalist timetable.
Up to 10 Class 319 Units, making some ballsy timetable changes.

2014:
Add in an extra six Class 319 units, covering Manchester - Liverpool 2tph (Diverting the Warrington service)

2015:
Add an additional four to five units for Wigan via St Helens C.

2017:
Again, with some ballsy changes to the timetables, one could require anything up to an additional ten to fifteen units.

2019: Another ten units for services via Bolton to come back in again, potentially more than this by displacing Class 323 units away from Stoke and Crewe duties to provide doubled up 323s via Bolton.

Now we're up to a potential requirement of up to approximately 55 class 319 units, one can continue a refurbishment programme with this many units going spare, 30 odd units required going spare, 10 maintenance spares and 20 in refurbishment toward the end of the cycle, these 20 some units would come in handy on some other parts of the Northern network for additional, new services, meaning other operators can speed their services up slightly, or have some of the NT services extend down to Stafford, or other logical extensions, possibly even placing a small EMU fleet at Newcastle for a slow service up the ECML for example.

Either way, someone asked for EMU requirements?

 

[Class377/5]

The current franchising process seems to expect a year from starting the process to the new franchisee taking over. On that basis the Northern & TPE process will start sometime February/March 2013. As long as the order for Thameslink replacement trains is placed before that date the rolling stock cascade plan will be known to the bidders for Northern.

Once the cascade plan is known Northern (or the new franchisee) can plan when to replace diesels with electric trains. This isn't like the situation in Scotland were Siemen's late delivery prevented (or at least wrecked) the introduction of the service from Airdrie to Bathgate. The diesels can carry on running Liverpool to Manchester and Wigan until the electrics arrive. By the time Blackpool - Manchester via Bolton is ready the 319s will have been in store for a year or more!

The Thameslink replacement stock should be arriving in mid/late 2015 so there is barely enough time to refurish the rolling stock prior to introducing EMU's to Blackpool. Recent reports suggested a summer sign of but October is now being mentioned. Should be enough time to let the new Northern/TPE franchise bidders have an idea what's going to happen and more importantly, when.

The problem is phase 2 won't get the EMU's in time unless they use the off lease 317's.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Or while we're waiting for the other lines to gain wires, we can cycle the 319s through a deep clean and refurbishment programme...?

The 319/3 don't need much more than a lick of paint as they were mainly refurbished in 2009.

There won't be enough stock for the 2014 timetable hence proposed major changes let alone giving any to Northern. don't expect a 319 until very late 2015/2016.

 

[northwichcat]

2013:
4 Class 319 Units plus maintenance spares, 6 units if we have a minimalist timetable.
Up to 10 Class 319 Units, making some ballsy timetable changes.

?

The only current service I can moving over to EMU operation in 2013 is the morning Manchester-Wigan express and the return evening working but based on the proposed TPE timetable TPE are taking those paths for Scottish services.

Are you including the current DMU services under the wires that could switch now with a few extra EMUs and a rewrite of diagrams?
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

But FGW's 16x fleet is all two or three car- with the long distance 166s all three car. Though I dare say that they'd be able to operate remarshalled as 4 and 2 car units- or perhaps 165 centre cars could be used?
Unless they mean to run pairs of 165s?

I don't know the exact terms. AFAIK they have to gain clearance first. However, if they are refurbished with 2+2 seating (they will probably be due a mid-life refurbishment) and run in sets of at least 4 car then won't that be an improvement on reformed 3 car 158s?

 

[Class377/5]

This is what I was getting at;

We know we're looking at staged openings, if I remember my dates correctly...

2013 Manchester - Newton
2014 Liverpool - Newton
2015 Liverpool - Wigan via St Helens C
2017 Preston - Blackpool
2018 Salford - Preston via Bolton

Then, the stock requirements for each of these parts would be something like (With an optimistic timetable, northern only)...

2013:
4 Class 319 Units plus maintenance spares, 6 units if we have a minimalist timetable.
Up to 10 Class 319 Units, making some ballsy timetable changes.

2014:
Add in an extra six Class 319 units, covering Manchester - Liverpool 2tph (Diverting the Warrington service)

2015:
Add an additional four to five units for Wigan via St Helens C.

2017:
Again, with some ballsy changes to the timetables, one could require anything up to an additional ten to fifteen units.

2019: Another ten units for services via Bolton to come back in again, potentially more than this by displacing Class 323 units away from Stoke and Crewe duties to provide doubled up 323s via Bolton.

Now we're up to a potential requirement of up to approximately 55 class 319 units, one can continue a refurbishment programme with this many units going spare, 30 odd units required going spare, 10 maintenance spares and 20 in refurbishment toward the end of the cycle, these 20 some units would come in handy on some other parts of the Northern network for additional, new services, meaning other operators can speed their services up slightly, or have some of the NT services extend down to Stafford, or other logical extensions, possibly even placing a small EMU fleet at Newcastle for a slow service up the ECML for example.

Either way, someone asked for EMU requirements?

Just to throw your working out, the first 319 won't be release until 2015. That's if they go before the 377's. Even without refurbishing them your still looking at May 2016 before they can be introduced as driver training needs means it'd be too late to introduce 319's prior to this. (You might be able to do a change over around about Jan if your luckily but it would be limited).

Northern would likely want the 319/3's first as they've recently been refurbished and aren't in too bad a state currently.

 

[northwichcat]

Once the cascade plan is known Northern (or the new franchisee) can plan when to replace diesels with electric trains. This isn't like the situation in Scotland were Siemen's late delivery prevented (or at least wrecked) the introduction of the service from Airdrie to Bathgate. The diesels can carry on running Liverpool to Manchester and Wigan until the electrics arrive. By the time Blackpool - Manchester via Bolton is ready the 319s will have been in store for a year or more!

I don't follow you at all. Are you saying there will be a guaranteed latest date for the 319s to leave FCC for the North West, which can't be delayed by late delivery of new stock in the South East by Siemens?

The majority of the cascaded diesels will not be surplus to requirements as provision for additional services and extensions to existing services have been identified. The first ones have been given provisional start dates of December 2014.

It might interest you to know that changes that happened in the Northern and EMT December 12 timetables were due to happen earlier but were delayed by the 150 cascades, this sounds like exactly what could happen again with cascaded Thameslink stock.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Northern would likely want the 319/3's first as they've recently been refurbished and aren't in too bad a state currently.

And won't FCC want to keep those until last?

 

[DownSouth]

A three coach 166 will have a slightly better capacity than the three coach 158s that FGW use on the Portsmouth route due to being 3+2 seating, but it's not a big leap forward (compared to the capacity improvement that this line requires).

3+2 actually makes capacity worse than if the same seats (or even slightly wider seats) are used in a 2+2 layout. By doubling the width of the aisle there is a lot more capacity for people to stand on heavily-used peak commuter services.

 

[northwichcat]

3+2 actually makes capacity worse than if the same seats (or even slightly wider seats) are used in a 2+2 layout. By doubling the width of the aisle there is a lot more capacity for people to stand on heavily-used peak commuter services.

tbtc is comparing 158s with 2+2 seating with 16xs with 3+2 seating, there is a wider door layout on the 16xs meaning the standing room difference is significantly less than when comparing, for instance, 150s with 3+2 seating with 150s with 2+2 seating.

 

[Nym]

?

The only current service I can moving over to EMU operation in 2013 is the morning Manchester-Wigan express and the return evening working but based on the proposed TPE timetable TPE are taking those paths for Scottish services.

Are you including the current DMU services under the wires that could switch now with a few extra EMUs and a rewrite of diagrams?

I'm assuming a major change in the services to Wigan when the wires go up to the tune of...

New 1 or 2tph services to Wigan via Eccles, in an attempt to remove some DMUs from diagrams by abstracting passengers away from the via Bolton and Atherton services by providing a good, faster service via Eccles than the current services via Bolton and Atherton, possibly extending some of these to Preston to take some passengers away from the rest of the Bolton route, provided the journey times are competitive.


Now, I've taken the following into account;

Stockport requires 2tph to Manchester Oxford Road
Bolton requires services to Oxford Road for the sake of decent service levels.
Liverpool requires services to Manchester Airport, likely to be in the form of CLC stoppers being extended that way.

So I'd have the following service changes, assuming the availability of EMUs to run them at the following points of electrification (at fear of coming off topic) but this is how I arrived at the EMU numbers required.

The following services will change slightly...

Wires to Wigan from Manchester (2013):

xx:52arr xx:54 dep service to Hazel Grove and reverse is diverted to run via Eccles to Wigan and onto Preston, calling all stations.

xx:20arr and xx38dep to and from Alderley Edge extended to Wigan North Western calling all stations. This is a similar timing to the Southport service, so would be timed to depart about 3mins after at xx:24 from Platform 14 (when free) and arrive at approximately xx30 just behind the service off Scotland that will overtake it at Oxford Road.

This would provide:

xx08 off Piccadilly to Scotland and
xx24 and xx54 off Piccadilly to Wigan with the xx54 extended to Preston.

The southbounds provide some issues, so may need to be interworked onto different routes, eg. Southbound to Stoke on Trent, Northbound from Alderley Edge, alternatively just stick with diverting the Preston service and have the other diagramed to interwork with the other two routes, but run as terminating at Oxford Road.

Either way, I'd be having 2tph between Wigan and Manchester via Eccles, one of these taking over the Hazel Grove DMU off Piccadilly to be run instead as an EMU service.

If it is possible to do with the current timetable, that I believe it is, I'd move (at this point) the Hazel Grove service up to 2tph to run on a 30min clock face via Piccadilly to Wigan North Western and onwards to Preston at 1tph.

Northbound at xx24 (Sped up by 3mins thanks to being an EMU, Buxton DMU following pathed behind this, flighted) and
xx54 off Piccadilly in the current slot, rambling now..


Very much off topic here, but you get the idea about minimisation of DMU use by making the best of the wires that are up, but trying to slot it into the current timetabling without being able to have units wait on piccadilly to be overtaken makes it a pain to manage.

Eventually on the through platforms I'd like to see 1/2tph per each electrified route, Wigan, Bolton and Liverpool via Chat Moss, made up from the stopping EMU services from Slade Lane Junction, if we're not going to see anything additional at Victoria or Exchange for services it will be looking at (through 13 - 16 at picc)

2tph CLC Slow
2tph CLC Semi Fast (From Stockport, Cleethorpes & Norwich if LDPE links are to be kept)
2tph Chat Moss to Liverpool Lime St (From Slade Lane Jcn)
2tph Chat Moss to Wigan NW
2tph Bolton (From Slade Lane Jcn)

4tph Ordsall Cord

1tph Chester via Warrington BQ (Off Airport?)
1tph Southport via Atherton (Off Airport)
1tph Scotland

That makes 7tph EMU and 10tph DMU or 9 and 8 with TP N Electrification.

But the chances are this is too much for that route to handle, and any more into Victoria will be too much as well, so we need something, somewhere else, to handle extra traffic on 'new' routes.

For example, with Exchange platforms and Ordsall Lane Grade Seperation with services being pushed over to Exchange rather than going through Piccadilly from the Chat Moss, one could happly reduce the number of services over the OR corridor to a more sensible number with up to 12tph going to the new "Exchange" site and the CLC being pushed up to a 3+3tph service level, with most Chat Moss stuff going to Exchange and a few more services coming from Windsor Bridge, probably 2 or 3.

 

[Class377/5]

I don't follow you at all. Are you saying there will be a guaranteed latest date for the 319s to leave FCC for the North West, which can't be delayed by late delivery of new stock in the South East by Siemens?

The majority of the cascaded diesels will not be surplus to requirements as provision for additional services and extensions to existing services have been identified. The first ones have been given provisional start dates of December 2014.

It might interest you to know that changes that happened in the Northern and EMT December 12 timetables were due to happen earlier but were delayed by the 150 cascades, this sounds like exactly what could happen again with cascaded Thameslink stock.

And won't FCC want to keep those until last?

If FCC are still around its likely the 319's without first class will be the first to go. After all the long term plan is no units without it. Please they need to keep units with first class for Bedford - Brighton duties as well as Sevenoaks so reducing the units that can do that will only cause problems. However everything is up in the air until the new franchise comes in as it will be them the proposed the plan for the phased introduction of the 700's.

As for your point to another post, there is no set in stone date that the 319's have to leave by because there isn't any slack in the current Thameslink fleet. On a daily basis there is only two spare 377/5, the 377/2 are spoken for and there is single digit spare 319's. Note when I say spare I include all non diagramed units so with exams and cleaning etc the actually truely spare units are so low there is none to go else where.

I can see the first 700 displacing at least one 319 for driver training if nothing else!

 

[John55]

I don't follow you at all. Are you saying there will be a guaranteed latest date for the 319s to leave FCC for the North West, which can't be delayed by late delivery of new stock in the South East by Siemens?

The majority of the cascaded diesels will not be surplus to requirements as provision for additional services and extensions to existing services have been identified. The first ones have been given provisional start dates of December 2014.

It might interest you to know that changes that happened in the Northern and EMT December 12 timetables were due to happen earlier but were delayed by the 150 cascades, this sounds like exactly what could happen again with cascaded Thameslink stock.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---


And won't FCC want to keep those until last?

You were suggesting uncertainty with EMUs would cause problems with the letting of the new northern franchise. I was saying by the time the Northern franchise is relet there will be a timetable for the new trains to be delivered and consequently a timetable for the 319s to be released.

Of course the 150 cascade was possibly delayed by the late delivery of the 172s but that is what happens in the real world.

Out of curiosity these extra services the released DMUs are planned for in December 2014 what are they and who has committed the funding for them?

 

[northwichcat]

Out of curiosity these extra services the released DMUs are planned for in December 2014 what are they and who has committed the funding for them?

Saying December 2014 was actually wrong on checking the plan is for changes before then, I just came up with that date

Liverpool to Warrington Bank Quay should be diverted/extended to Manchester Victoria once the TPE Liverpool-Newcastle service starts on Chat Moss, likewise an additional Bolton-Manchester service should start once TPE Scottish services go via Wigan. These are replacement services so don't require extra funding.

Stalybridge station is currently under a full redevelopment to allow for multiple changes between December 2012 which is when an additional Manchester-Stalybridge service will start and May/December 2015 which is when the Ordsall Chord will come in to use and new semi-fast TPE services will be introduced.

 

[John55]

Saying December 2014 was actually wrong on checking the plan is for changes before then, I just came up with that date

Liverpool to Warrington Bank Quay should be diverted/extended to Manchester Victoria once the TPE Liverpool-Newcastle service starts on Chat Moss, likewise an additional Bolton-Manchester service should start once TPE Scottish services go via Wigan. These are replacement services so don't require extra funding.

Stalybridge station is currently under a full redevelopment to allow for multiple changes between December 2012 which is when an additional Manchester-Stalybridge service will start and May/December 2015 which is when the Ordsall Chord will come in to use and new semi-fast TPE services will be introduced.

I must admit I thought you were talking about Northern changes due to the arrival of 319s. The TPE proposed changes are understood but if Northern are expected to run extra Manchester - Bolton trains someone will have to pay for them as I cannot see off peak train on this route as money makers for Northern.

A couple of months ago there was no agreement for Northern to run the extra trains from Stalybridge across Victoria to Wigan (I think?) has TfGM now agreed to pay for this?

 

[WatcherZero]

Liverpool to Warrington Bank Quay should be diverted/extended to Manchester Victoria once the TPE Liverpool-Newcastle service starts on Chat Moss, likewise an additional Bolton-Manchester service should start once TPE Scottish services go via Wigan. These are replacement services so don't require extra funding.

Its been mooted as a Manchester-Blackburn via Bolton.

I wouldnt expect to see more than a 2tph Wigan-Manchester fast including the Scotland service, there just wouldnt be the passengers for 3tph.

 

[Nym]

Well, the idea in my tiny mind would be that one would be doing their best to abstract passengers away from the services via Bolton and Atherton by offering a better service, initially 1tph opposite or close to opposite the TPE would be good to test the waters, rising to 2tph in the peaks would be an idea....

 

[WatcherZero]

Yeah but say at best 1/3rd the passengers for Manchester on those services originate/interchange at Wallgate/NW (from personal experience), that might provide comfortable loadings for 2tph but would struggle with 3, albeit 3 might be justified in the high peak.

 

[Nym]

Yeah but say at best 1/3rd the passengers for Manchester on those services originate/interchange at Wallgate/NW (from personal experience), that might provide comfortable loadings for 2tph but would struggle with 3, albeit 3 might be justified in the high peak.

Working from this then, would the diversion of the Hazel Grove - Preston service via Wigan North Western and an additional service terminating at Oxford Road or Piccadilly to Chorley or Preston via Bolton be more appropriate?

Working off the back of a fag packet, this would mean services leaving Wigan NW in the form of:

TPE: Manchester Airport ~xx:00
NT: Hazel Grove: xx:40, possibly pulled back to xx:35/xx:30 if intermediate stops are made in Salford and padding provided at Oxford Road.

Departures off Piccadilly remaining suitability opposite each other, and also handily pathed behind the non stopping ATW service to Chester, allowing stops at Eccles etc to be made without significant conflict onto the following service, the next being the xx:01 to Liverpool Lime Street via Chat Moss, then followed by the xx:16 to Scotland.

Or would it perhaps be better to operate as an all day extension of a different service, such as extending the Crewe - Manchester via Manchester Airport service onwards to Wigan NW?

Perhaps trying to run closer to the other lost services to work opposite the current Airport - Blackpool North service?

 

[northwichcat]

I must admit I thought you were talking about Northern changes due to the arrival of 319s.

It was originally expected that they would change at the same time. I just said December 14 before because that was what had been mentioned for 319s arriving at Northern without checking.

The TPE proposed changes are understood but if Northern are expected to run extra Manchester - Bolton trains someone will have to pay for them as I cannot see off peak train on this route as money makers for Northern.

Can't you?

When I did Chorley to Stockport on a Wednesday early afternoon on a Northern 156 I can tell you there were over 200 passengers on board between Bolton and Manchester. If a 156 with all seats occupied and around 50 standing isn't profitable then what will be?

Bolton-Manchester probably has the highest average loadings for Northern services as unlike some other routes it has high patronage all day not just at peak times.