IEP & Thameslink

[HSTEd]

Perhaps if you actually travelled on the 395s, instead of just looking at the nice shiny pictures of them, you would realise your not exactly talking sense.

You say Bombardier arent in the same league. Very true, the 375s are much better than 395s. Less noise, less vibration, less shaking, and more comfortable. I only use the 395s because I am usually heading to North London. Give me a choice to St Pancras, and id turn to the 375s anyday.

One would expect a Cl375 to have rather reduced vibration and noise being as it is goign considerably slower.....

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Industry rumours have been posted on this forum recently, IIRC by a member who is usually pretty reliable with their information, that the ITT document will contain a further alteration to the Great Western IEP order. I made my previous post before I was 100% sure that the Great Western ITT had been published or not, sorry about that: If I recall I think that it is actually due to be released some time after June 28th.

http://www.dft.gov.uk/topics/iep

This is the current text about the status of the IEP programme on the DfT web site.
A detailed train spec must exist as it has been sent to the GW franchise bidders, no doubt protected by non-disclosure agreements.
But until the ITT and related documents are published we can only speculate.

 

[junglejames]

One would expect a Cl375 to have rather reduced vibration and noise being as it is goign considerably slower.....

Which is why I was comparing like for like. Even when going about the same speed, they seem a lot worse.

 

[Class377/5]

In Roger Fords latest Informed Sources preview he has received information that the new Thameslink trains deal will be completed in October!

Thameslink
More confusion from that most confused of Transport Ministers Theresa
Villiers over the prolonged delay to signing the Thameslink deal.
According to Theresa DfT expects to conclude the 'core project
agreements' with Siemens and the Cross London Trains consortium
'shortly'. *After that Cross London Trains and their lending banks will
'need to conclude the financing documentation required to secure the
necessary equity and debt funding for the project'.

Could this mean that train and depot provision was now a separate
process from arranging the associated funding?
I checked with DfT who told me 'the Thameslink bidders were required to
provide proposals to finance the trains in accordance with the
instructions contained in Section 6 of the Invitation to Tender (ITT)
documents and the associated Supplementary Instructions. These
instructions have not changed. As envisaged in the ITT, the Preferred
Bidder is now working to secure final credit committee approval from
their funders in order that the project can reach financial close and
construction of the trains can begin'.

So when is 'shortly'? According to informed sources, bidders for the
Thameslink 'Franchise of Death' are being told that the deal is now
unlikely to be concluded before October. *That's October 2012 - I
think.

My bolding.

Doesn't look great for greeting this fleet here any time soon. I wonder if the testing phase is going to be compacted to release the 319/377's on the current timetables.

However any delay means the Northern electrification is going to be missing trains for longer and longer.

 

[tbtc]

any delay means the Northern electrification is going to be missing trains for longer and longer

So the Lancashire electrification (which saw the proposal for new DMUs replaced by a proposal for cascaded EMUs, due to Thameslink releasing dozens of them and it being cheaper to do this than build new DMUs) will now see electrification but no spare EMUs to run under the wires?

Out of interest how long would it take between ordering a generic/modern EMU (say a 380, for arguments sake) and it getting built? I appreciate that the "all singing all dancing" bespoke Thameslink units will take longer than an average EMU, but how soon could we have something "normal" for the rest of the UK?

 

[Nym]

Something like a Class 380, from Siemens it depends on how much one is willing to pay them for these units, but the 380 would be more ideal for services around GM than most other units with their 23m long carriages, in 3 car formation.

Since it's the latest built and if the cheque book was thick enough, it wouldn't take long at all IMO to get then units built and over to the UK. End to end build time can be quite short if your wallet is thick enough, and if it's part of a much bigger order, it's much easier to exercise some cash to get a significant amount of units earlier rather than ordering a small amount for now, ordering a large amount with some of them now, then a continued delivery programme, agreed with the supplier when the contract is signed.

Either way, if the order was put in now, I reacon we could have enough units in place by the time the Chat Moss is open and wired up to Wigan, where an additional (in addition to the TPE units) 10 units would be plenty of capacity at the time of introduction, with significantly more being delivered in time for the route over to Liverpool being finished.

Of course a continued delivery programme would be in place so that the Class 323 units could be cascaded to LM to increase capacity on the cross city line with 380 units replacing these like for like in Manchester in either 3 or 4 car form. Maintained at a new depot built by Siemens under an operating contract at somewhere like Wigan.

 

[Class377/5]

So the Lancashire electrification (which saw the proposal for new DMUs replaced by a proposal for cascaded EMUs, due to Thameslink releasing dozens of them and it being cheaper to do this than build new DMUs) will now see electrification but no spare EMUs to run under the wires?

Out of interest how long would it take between ordering a generic/modern EMU (say a 380, for arguments sake) and it getting built? I appreciate that the "all singing all dancing" bespoke Thameslink units will take longer than an average EMU, but how soon could we have something "normal" for the rest of the UK?

Looking at the 350, Siemens got the order for 20 units in March 2012 with the first unit due Sept/Oct 2013.

Bombardiers order for 377/6 were placed late last year (I think) with all in place for Dec 2013. (maybe)

A normal build EMU is about £1.5m a carriage now.

 

[jon0844]

Of course, with Bombardier you have the time to build, time to deliver, time to take back to factory, time to re-deliver, time to send staff out to fix on-site etc.

 

[WatcherZero]

In Roger Fords latest Informed Sources preview he has received information that the new Thameslink trains deal will be completed in October!



My bolding.

Doesn't look great for greeting this fleet here any time soon. I wonder if the testing phase is going to be compacted to release the 319/377's on the current timetables.

However any delay means the Northern electrification is going to be missing trains for longer and longer.

Its been said before, theyve already started running testing in Germany with the bogies and a couple of prototype body shells.

 

[anthony263]

I will be interesting to see if we can get some pics of the prototype units which Seimens have built

 

[jon0844]

I will be interesting to see if we can get some pics of the prototype units which Seimens have built

Note; the green top also suggests Southern has won the next franchise...

Two exclusives in one post!

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

So the Lancashire electrification (which saw the proposal for new DMUs replaced by a proposal for cascaded EMUs, due to Thameslink releasing dozens of them and it being cheaper to do this than build new DMUs) will now see electrification but no spare EMUs to run under the wires?

They're probably gearing up for Northern to use 317s freed up by GA for 2014 (Chat Moss/Wigan), maybe not covering all services.
If they need new EMUs in the short term I would guess more 350s would be the easiest to contract, seeing as Siemens will still be building them for TP/LM and one would hope there is a run-on option.
The cheapskate solution would be Southern 313s after they get their new 377s.
If the Thameslink cascade is delayed it will also impact GW Thames Valley EMU plans.

 

[anthony263]

Of course we will have to see whether or not the rumours about the GW getting new emu's for the thames valley electrification prove to be more than just rumours.

I would suggest placing an order with Bombardier for some new emu's which should keep the lines at derby going for a few more years. These units could be 3 carriage sets running in pairs allowing some services to run a 6 carriages since certain routes around Manchester cannot take longer trains than 6 carriages

 

[northwichcat]

So the Lancashire electrification (which saw the proposal for new DMUs replaced by a proposal for cascaded EMUs, due to Thameslink releasing dozens of them and it being cheaper to do this than build new DMUs) will now see electrification but no spare EMUs to run under the wires?

Out of interest how long would it take between ordering a generic/modern EMU (say a 380, for arguments sake) and it getting built? I appreciate that the "all singing all dancing" bespoke Thameslink units will take longer than an average EMU, but how soon could we have something "normal" for the rest of the UK?

Siemens have set aside a lot of their resources for the Thameslink programme and that's one reason why the 350 order for LM/TPE is to take around 24 months to complete despite being a small order. Bombardier are promising a faster delivery for 130 class 37x vehicles for Southern as they don't have a lot else on. I think it's the latter that should have extra units tagged on for Northern.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

These units could be 3 carriage sets running in pairs allowing some services to run a 6 carriages since certain routes around Manchester cannot take longer trains than 6 carriages

Ideally with corridor connectors. Although modern trains with SDO will have less problems with short platforms than 319s without SDO.

 

[Class377/5]

Its been said before, theyve already started running testing in Germany with the bogies and a couple of prototype body shells.

Yes I know but I've also seen the outline of the phasing of the introduction and the initial delivery time scale (which has properly changed as it was last years plan).

They're probably gearing up for Northern to use 317s freed up by GA for 2014 (Chat Moss/Wigan), maybe not covering all services.
If they need new EMUs in the short term I would guess more 350s would be the easiest to contract, seeing as Siemens will still be building them for TP/LM and one would hope there is a run-on option.
The cheapskate solution would be Southern 313s after they get their new 377s.
If the Thameslink cascade is delayed it will also impact GW Thames Valley EMU plans.

Siemens have set aside a lot of their resources for the Thameslink programme and that's one reason why the 350 order for LM/TPE is to take around 24 months to complete despite being a small order. Bombardier are promising a faster delivery for 130 class 37x vehicles for Southern as they don't have a lot else on. I think it's the latter that should have extra units tagged on for Northern.

Ideally with corridor connectors. Although modern trains with SDO will have less problems with short platforms than 319s without SDO.

Could we be heading back to the plan of 20-25 four car additional trains for Thameslink that were originally expect to be part this generation and part next generation of rolling stock mentioned in 2008 as needed for KO1?

The most sensible course of action is to order more 379's for GA then transfer the 317's across to fit in the gaps until the 319's are ready to start their new lives as AC only units. Or replace FCC's 313 with three or six car 379's and send the 313's elsewhere to live out their lives until wholesale replacement by new units as part of the Transpennie upgrade.

However any new trains orderd should make the initial claim that the electrification would be cheap because of re-using rolling stock a bit mute. I'd expect that instead a new order for the North would make sense and could be a joint order for new Transpennie units. This makes sense as the 319's are needed later for GW and it should be possible for the 319's to be displaced by new 700's by then. Either way more new reins is a good thing and if the GW does end up with 319's, well 8 car EMU better than newer 6 car DMU's if the 319's are refurbished properly.

 

[John55]

I have an idea for introducing electric trains between Liverpool and Manchester/Wigan after the wires go up which will not require any extra trains to be built and will therefore be very cheap.

You wait for the 319s to be released and start running the electric trains six months or whatever late. It's not as though this hasn't happened before!

 

[northwichcat]

You wait for the 319s to be released and start running the electric trains six months or whatever late. It's not as though this hasn't happened before!

It'll be more like 3-5 years late.

Remember the cascaded 319s were instead of extra new units for the North of England which were supposed to be in service by December 2012. April 2014 was already a 16 month delay compared to the original schedule for new units and we were promised the 319s would be fully refurbished to a high standard before they entered service in the North West.

Early 2014 is also the start of the next franchise, the exact rolling stock which will be available for this franchise will need to be made available well before this. Remember the delay on the Northern franchise due to uncertainties over the Oldham Loop and 5 Pacers which would fall out of the franchise agreement once it was closed? This time we're talking about a lot more than 10 small carriages.

 

[John55]

It'll be more like 3-5 years late.

Remember the cascaded 319s were instead of extra new units for the North of England which were supposed to be in service by December 2012. April 2014 was already a 16 month delay compared to the original schedule for new units and we were promised the 319s would be fully refurbished to a high standard before they entered service in the North West.

Early 2014 is also the start of the next franchise, the exact rolling stock which will be available for this franchise will need to be made available well before this. Remember the delay on the Northern franchise due to uncertainties over the Oldham Loop and 5 Pacers which would fall out of the franchise agreement once it was closed? This time we're talking about a lot more than 10 small carriages.

April 2014 has nothing to do with the transfer of 319s which is currently due for the December 2014 timetable. April 2014 is when the TPE 350/3s are all expected to be in use on the Manchester - Wigan via Chat Moss route.

The fact that someone had an idea of what might happen 2 or 5 years ago is not really relevant now as things change for all sorts of reasons. I used to thing I would get my bus pass at 60 but I am now going to have to wait till 65. Is it the end of the world? No you just get with the situation.

If you could have a word with the US/UK/Greek etc etc Banks and ask them to go back 10 years and not wreck the world's financial stability it would be nice too.

 

[tbtc]

Looking at the 350, Siemens got the order for 20 units in March 2012 with the first unit due Sept/Oct 2013.

Bombardiers order for 377/6 were placed late last year (I think) with all in place for Dec 2013. (maybe)

A normal build EMU is about £1.5m a carriage now.

Thanks.

So roughly 1.5m a coach and just under 1.5 years for it. Puts things in perspective.

I've not sorted out how many EMUs will be needed for each stage of the Thames Valley/ Lancashire building projects... anyone have a spreadsheet handy?

 

[Class377/5]

It'll be more like 3-5 years late.

Remember the cascaded 319s were instead of extra new units for the North of England which were supposed to be in service by December 2012. April 2014 was already a 16 month delay compared to the original schedule for new units and we were promised the 319s would be fully refurbished to a high standard before they entered service in the North West.

Early 2014 is also the start of the next franchise, the exact rolling stock which will be available for this franchise will need to be made available well before this. Remember the delay on the Northern franchise due to uncertainties over the Oldham Loop and 5 Pacers which would fall out of the franchise agreement once it was closed? This time we're talking about a lot more than 10 small carriages.

Sorry but your not quite right there. The 319's were never ever planned to be ready for the NW by December 2012. Even with the plan to have the first new train in service on 01/02/2012, all the 377's were due to be returned to Southern first so they had all the units for December 2013. The 319's were scheduled to start being withdrawn and sent off to be refurishished in late 2012/early 2013. They're wouldn't have been enough 319's to run unrefurishished prior to May 2013 at the very earliest.

It will be interesting to see how they deal with the new electric services. Guessing the 319's leave Thamelink ahead of the 377's and don't get refurished prior to introduction and they are upgraded slowly as more units become available. However the 319/3 & /4's are in too bad condition so these would be suitable to be transferred first.

However the new fleet hasn't been expected to start arriving until after the initial phase of the NW electrification was live for some time now. There is now no way to have the 319's ready for deployment without a replacement order for Thameslink.

Also why do you think rolling stock needs to be made avaible prior to a new franchise? New Thameslink franchise will start with (hopefully) the order placed and first units under construction. They will just have to deal with the situation, why would Northern replacement franchise be any different? Especially as the new Thameslink franchise is going to be one of the biggest we have!

 

[sprinterguy]

Sorry but your not quite right there. The 319's were never ever planned to be ready for the NW by December 2012. Even with the plan to have the first new train in service on 01/02/2012, all the 377's were due to be returned to Southern first so they had all the units for December 2013. The 319's were scheduled to start being withdrawn and sent off to be refurishished in late 2012/early 2013. They're wouldn't have been enough 319's to run unrefurishished prior to May 2013 at the very earliest.

jcollins didn't say that the 319s were planned to be ready in December 2012, he said that the new diesel units that were previously planned and that the 319s are in lieu of were meant to be in service by December 2012.

 

[Class377/5]

jcollins didn't say that the 319s were planned to be ready in December 2012, he said that the new diesel units that were previously planned and that the 319s are in lieu of were meant to be in service by December 2012.

Remember the cascaded 319s were instead of extra new units for the North of England which were supposed to be in service by December 2012..

Ah I see what you mean tho he didn't explain it that well.

 

[northwichcat]

April 2014 has nothing to do with the transfer of 319s which is currently due for the December 2014 timetable. April 2014 is when the TPE 350/3s are all expected to be in use on the Manchester - Wigan via Chat Moss route.

What I'm getting at is the uncertainty regarding EMUs could cause issues with awarding the next franchise which starts in 2014.

 

[anthony263]

What I'm getting at is the uncertainty regarding EMUs could cause issues with awarding the next franchise which starts in 2014.

I have to agree with you.

Personally perhaps the DFT should look at ordering some brand new emu's particulary for Northern say perhaps additional class 350/3's or perhaps some 3 carriage electrostars in addition to those being built for Southern.

I am sure Bombardier would like the work and while you are at it perhaps order some class 172 dmu's to replace northerns oldest dmu's

 

[northwichcat]

Also why do you think rolling stock needs to be made avaible prior to a new franchise? New Thameslink franchise will start with (hopefully) the order placed and first units under construction. They will just have to deal with the situation, why would Northern replacement franchise be any different? Especially as the new Thameslink franchise is going to be one of the biggest we have!

I meant a list of the exact rolling stock will need to be made available not the exact rolling stock. You can't have an unknown number of 319s from an unknown date.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

I am sure Bombardier would like the work and while you are at it perhaps order some class 172 dmu's to replace northerns oldest dmu's

While that won't be popular with some people on this forum, new DMUs for extra capacity which can replace Pacers after extra EMUs become available is a realistic option. If there are going to be enough cascaded EMUs available for electrified services but not in time then maybe that is the best option.

 

[Class377/5]

I meant a list of the exact rolling stock will need to be made available not the exact rolling stock. You can't have an unknown number of 319s from an unknown date.

While that won't be popular with some people on this forum, new DMUs for extra capacity which can replace Pacers after extra EMUs become available is a realistic option. If there are going to be enough cascaded EMUs available for electrified services but not in time then maybe that is the best option.

There's too many unknowns but your right, you need to work out what you need then plan. A lot more will become clearer in May 2013 when the new Thameslink bidder is choosen. Them we'll know the plan for the new fleet being introduced and the withdrawal of the 319's and what sort if pace we can expect.

Personally I don't think new DMU is the answer but we may see a repeat of the 350/4 introduction with the 319's. Why not introduce slowly like they plan to with TPE and once the whole service can be run by 319 units then they can alter timetable as needed.

 

[northwichcat]

Personally I don't think new DMU is the answer

We will need more 172s or a similar type of DMU over the next 5-15 years. Many local lines can't justify electrification with current frequency and the Pacers and Sprinters are all reaching the end of their lives.

The 170s aren't suitable to cascade down for all-stops services due to poor acceleration while the 185s aren't due to being overpowered.

Personally I don't think new DMU is the answer but we may see a repeat of the 350/4 introduction with the 319's. Why not introduce slowly like they plan to with TPE and once the whole service can be run by 319 units then they can alter timetable as needed.

The problem is that TPE changes will need to co-ordinate with Northern changes. Places like Bolton can't lose 25% it's trains while things are being 'phased in.' If TPE start withdrawing services, Northern need to introduce new services from the same date as TPE withdraw services.

TPE submitted a proposed May 2014 timetable to the ORR but it can't be approved until the May 2014 Northern timetable is known and Northern Rail aren't going to submit a new timetable because their franchise expires before then. TPE still have to work based on a 2015 franchise end date even though DfT have the option of terminating their franchise in 2014.

 

[Class377/5]

We will need more 172s or a similar type of DMU over the next 5-15 years. Many local lines can't justify electrification with current frequency and the Pacers and Sprinters are all reaching the end of their lives.

The 170s aren't suitable to cascade down for all-stops services due to poor acceleration while the 185s aren't due to being overpowered.

The problem is that TPE changes will need to co-ordinate with Northern changes. Places like Bolton can't lose 25% it's trains while things are being 'phased in.' If TPE start withdrawing services, Northern need to introduce new services from the same date as TPE withdraw services.

TPE submitted a proposed May 2014 timetable to the ORR but it can't be approved until the May 2014 Northern timetable is known and Northern Rail aren't going to submit a new timetable because their franchise expires before then. TPE still have to work based on a 2015 franchise end date even though DfT have the option of terminating their franchise in 2014.

I don't know much about DMU acceralation times but are the 170's really that slow that the pacers beat them? Yes the 185 are unsuitable but is there a choice or some of the more heavily used lines that doesn't involve new trains? Most of these trains will need replacing by the 2020 deadline with much more units displaced by the newer electric units.

The new DMU's may be required more in the short term than long (with more needed prior to electfication than after overall), but can we afford to buy so many units when there won't be as much need within 10yrs? Yes the sprinters and pacers need to go but by 2020, and yes they aren't great.

As for the Bolton question, I'd assumed that as TPE are still serving the town while the initial services are turned electric and more services via Wigan that things could be moved around to provide overall similar capacity with some Northern's diverted via Bolton instead of the fast route (not that I'm 100% they do as its been 10yrs since I commuted from Wigan to Warrington).

 

[Nym]

As for the Bolton question, I'd assumed that as TPE are still serving the town while the initial services are turned electric and more services via Wigan that things could be moved around to provide overall similar capacity with some Northern's diverted via Bolton instead of the fast route (not that I'm 100% they do as its been 10yrs since I commuted from Wigan to Warrington).

Forgive me for not understanding that, but diverting via Bolton rather than the fast route? Diverting from where??

The only plans I have seen of Northern is to send the Southport - Airport service via Atherton instead of Bolton.

 

[northwichcat]

The new DMU's may be required more in the short term than long (with more needed prior to electfication than after overall), but can we afford to buy so many units when there won't be as much need within 10yrs? Yes the sprinters and pacers need to go but by 2020, and yes they aren't great.

We do need better than Pacers not similar for performance - there's currently too many Pacers that get caught up by faster trains currently causing knock on delays.

Let's say there's 120 extra EMUs introduced through current electrification schemes over the next 10 years, which sounds a reasonable number to me. We'll have hundreds of DMUs in need of withdrawal in the next 10 years and hundreds more to follow* with passenger numbers are expected to continue to rise.

* 142s, then 143s and 144s, then 150s. Other Sprinters and the 16xs will then follow over the following 5-10 years and then over the subsequent 5 years the 170s and 175s will be life-expired.

As for the Bolton question, I'd assumed that as TPE are still serving the town while the initial services are turned electric and more services via Wigan that things could be moved around to provide overall similar capacity with some Northern's diverted via Bolton instead of the fast route (not that I'm 100% they do as its been 10yrs since I commuted from Wigan to Warrington).

TPE's proposal is for the Liverpool-Newcastle fast via Victoria to be introduced in May 2014, with the current Airport-Newcastle service truncated at York. The other North TPE services e.g. Liverpool-Scarborough via Warrington will remain as they are. The Blackpool services will stay the same while Cumbria services will be reduced to a couple of through trains per day as Manchester Airport-Scotland goes hourly via Wigan.