Moulds take no time to make so don't even start on that...
If the 22x conversion was to happen, we would need more 10 car electric IEP (or just IC EMUs of any kind)
Electrification of the MML and Crewe to Chester would be required. And an order for...
30 Class 390 units. (Birmingham - Scotland, London - Chester, Manchester - Scotland)
20 Class 221 units to be converted then. Into 7 car EDMUs.
Either 40 ICEMUs and/or Cascade the 91+Mk4 Fleet to the MML with electrification reaching all the way to Leeds and Doncaster.
27 Class 222 units freed up, into a mix of 5, 7 or 9 car EDMUs.
I think I worked out in another thread that this would be plenty. And that HSTs could live long enough until the Midland Mainline, Cardiff - Swansea & Crewe - Chester to get electrified. And I'm sure Transport Scotland will have completed Edinburgh - Aberdeen by then aswell.
So the EDMU Requirement of the UK would be for (assuming loco haulage on some sections of the network)
ICGW:
Paddington - Hereford
Paddington - Penzance
Paddington - Cheltenham Spa
Paddington - Camarthen
B&H Services (That don't need to be IC to Penzance any more, with a faster route via Bristol available).
Now, there will be 47 units available, I'd say thats more than enough to go around.
I would also be EDMUing all of the XC fleet upto 6/7 car units. That would sort out a fair few of their capacity problems by adding space for 120 more seats per unit. It would also allow to have a proper shop put back in the unit and/or a kitchen!
And finally...
If ICGW doesn't need all of the 221 fleet from VT. I would be having their fleet EDMUed up with up to 7 or 8 car units. And have some services run through Birmingham New Street onto Shrewsbury, Hereford, etc. Or remain with VT for the North Wales services. 10 units wouldn't be a massive microfleet, especially if maintenance is braught all in house at Bombardier at Central Rivers.