Ideas for Service changes

[A0]

The one I'd like to see is improvements for Northampton - which at the last timetable change saw a further reduction in service.

So, Northampton is 2.5 times bigger than Bedford and almost 4 times bigger than Kettering, yet it gets fewer services to London than either of those and slower services at that.

In fact it now gets slower services than Nuneaton (which again it's 2.5 times bigger than).

It really should be seeing at least 3 tph, ideally 4 - and 2 of those should have a target journey time of 45 mins, which ought to be achievable.

Going north, the Birmingham services have been progressively slowed down with more and more station stops being added - all journeys to Birmingham now are over 1 hour, they should be closer to 50 mins and only stopping at Rugby, Coventry and International.

 

[Bartsimho]

Bit in bold - this gets peddled on so many occasions, but where is the evidence people want or need to travel between airports, particularly two like Luton and East Mids, both of which are predominantly served by low cost carriers or package holiday operators ?

Yes, there's some internal flow between Manchester and Heathrow / Gatwick or Edinburgh / Glasgow to Heathrow / Gatwick, but that's for people heading onto intercontinental flights which aren't run directly from the likes of Manchester or Glasgow.

I added it more as an extra benefit not a main one hence it in brackets. The fact that Luton has many more locations makes it a better airport to stop at. Adding it to a stopping MML service would add EMP as well. It's more that for flights the Midlands has Leeds Bradford and Manchester which are over 2 hours from places like Nottingham. East Midlands being a very limited package holiday airport while Luton still aims for low cost carriers but has more City destinations rather than Package destinations makes it one of the more attractive airports for the East Midlands to Europe.

It's less the EMP to LAP connection more the DBY, SHF, NOT and LEI to LAP connection on a stopping service.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 24 Jan 2023 ==

The one I'd like to see is improvements for Northampton - which at the last timetable change saw a further reduction in service.

So, Northampton is 2.5 times bigger than Bedford and almost 4 times bigger than Kettering, yet it gets fewer services to London than either of those and slower services at that.

In fact it now gets slower services than Nuneaton (which again it's 2.5 times bigger than).

It really should be seeing at least 3 tph, ideally 4 - and 2 of those should have a target journey time of 45 mins, which ought to be achievable.

Going north, the Birmingham services have been progressively slowed down with more and more station stops being added - all journeys to Birmingham now are over 1 hour, they should be closer to 50 mins and only stopping at Rugby, Coventry and International.

An issue for Northampton is that it was never on a Mainline just a loop off the WCML. Maybe once HS2 is present moving the WCML services to stopping at Northampton is better and maybe recreating the line from Northampton to Market Harborough for integration with the Trio of East Midland cities. Maybe a fast and a stopper alternating for services to Birmingham. (So after HS2 all WCML services to Birmingham stop at Northampton as there would be direct non-stopping on HS2).

 

[A0]

I added it more as an extra benefit not a main one hence it in brackets. The fact that Luton has many more locations makes it a better airport to stop at. Adding it to a stopping MML service would add EMP as well. It's more that for flights the Midlands has Leeds Bradford and Manchester which are over 2 hours from places like Nottingham. East Midlands being a very limited package holiday airport while Luton still aims for low cost carriers but has more City destinations rather than Package destinations makes it one of the more attractive airports for the East Midlands to Europe.

It's less the EMP to LAP connection more the DBY, SHF, NOT and LEI to LAP connection on a stopping service.

Derby, Sheffield and Nottingham aren't bothered by Luton Airport - not when they have Leeds Bradford, East Mids, Manchester and Birmingham all closer.

Luton's target really isn't the "East Midlands" - quite the reverse. It's got plenty of custom from London and the Home Counties.

 

[4-SUB 4732]

That’s not quite right. The plan was for a new junction at Bow so that some GEML ‘main’ services could join the electrics past Pudding Mill Lane and use some of the high number platforms. In theory this would allow 28tph on the Up Main from Shenfield (With conventional signalling, natch).

There was no plan for services ex the WAML to go to Liverpool St this way in normal service.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 23 Jan 2023 ==



That wouldn’t fit on the WAML.

You can definitely get:
- Quarter-hourly fast path via Brimsdown
- Quarter-hourly ‘slow’ path via Brimsdown (couple of stops omitted)
- Quarter-hourly in-fill path with excluded stations added (mostly needed for peak times) so long as a half-hourly set terminates at Broxbourne
- Overlay Seven Sisters half-hourly fast path, running in the opposite quarter-hours to the Cheshunt stopper
- For 4tph to run via Stratford if the relevant changes are made in line with the fact you now have almost no suburban (‘Electric’) services from Liverpool Street towards Shenfield
- An additional 2tph between Stratford and Meridian Water

And if you can prove otherwise, I’d like to see your workings…

 

[Bald Rick]

You can definitely get:
- Quarter-hourly fast path via Brimsdown
- Quarter-hourly ‘slow’ path via Brimsdown (couple of stops omitted)
- Quarter-hourly in-fill path with excluded stations added (mostly needed for peak times) so long as a half-hourly set terminates at Broxbourne
- Overlay Seven Sisters half-hourly fast path, running in the opposite quarter-hours to the Cheshunt stopper
- For 4tph to run via Stratford if the relevant changes are made in line with the fact you now have almost no suburban (‘Electric’) services from Liverpool Street towards Shenfield
- An additional 2tph between Stratford and Meridian Water

And if you can prove otherwise, I’d like to see your workings…

In timetabling, it’s pretty difficult to prove something can’t work without a whole load of options and assessment. It is much easier to prove something that can work. Therefore I‘d be interested to see your workings, in particular:

1) how 4 ‘fast’ paths square with 4 Stansted Expresses, 2 Cambridges all day with an extra 2 in the peak
2) how it works at Coppermill Jn, Clapton Jn, Bethnal Green, Broxbourne Jn, Stansted single Line, and platforming at Liverpool St
3) how it works at Stratford P11 & 12 and Stratford central junction, with particular focus on ECS to/from Temple Mills, and Freight (especially between the GEML and NLL)
4) where the hourly freight path on the WAML is accommodated
5) Level Crossing risk assessments for all 5 Level Crossings from Brimsdown to Broxbourne

I know a team who spent 2 years trying to resolve the WAML, and they never got close to this level of service. But I’m happy to be proved otherwise.

 

[Bartsimho]

How about this for a service Edinburgh/Glasgow-Carlisle-Preston-Manchester Piccadilly-Crewe-Birmingham New Street-Worcester Shrub Hill-Cheltenham Spa-Bristol Temple Meads-Taunton-Exeter St Davids-Plymouth-Truro-Penzance.
A long distance one but as far as I can see there is no service staying to the west with XC trains coming over from the East to the South West and West Coast trains coming up from London. Some hold time at Preston, Crewe, Temple Meads and Exeter would also help this stay on time.

From what I can gather Glasgow to Preston is around 2 hours 30 minutes normally with stops at Motherwell, Carlisle, Oxenholme Lake District and Lancaster before Preston. I guess this would take 2 hours 15 minutes cutting out the 2 stops. Preston to Manchester Piccadilly is around 40 minutes with that service stopping at Bolton and Oxford Road so maybe like 35 minutes. Piccadilly to Birmingham New Street is around 1 hour 45 minutes stopping at Wilmslow, Crewe, Stafford, Wolverhampton, Sandwell and Dudley before New Street this would probably take the same time with the hold at Crewe of like 15 minutes. This would head past Aston before reaching New Street but the lines seem to be of similar speed.
From New Street to Shrub Hill I can find a 40 minute service whish also stops at Droitwich Spa, Bromsgrove and University. This is 40 minutes but without the stops could be 30 minutes or less.
From Shrub Hill to Temple Meads I can find a Shrub Hill to Cheltenham Spa of 30 minutes stopping at Ashchurch for Tewkesbury so this would be 25 minutes and a Cheltenham Spa to Temple Meads of 40 minutes with a stop at Bristol Parkway so it could be 35 minutes so it total a 55 minute to an hour journey.
From Temple Meads to Plymouth I can find a journey of 2 hours with stops at Taunton, Tiverton Parkway, Exeter St Davids, Newton Abbot, Totnes. This could be a 1 hour 45 journey.
From Plymouth to Penzance I can find a 2 hour journey but with the reduced stops this could be a 1 hour 20 minute journey but this would probably get stuck behind a stopper.

I took a stop to slow a journey by 5 minutes with the slowing down, holding and accelerating required. I think this would be a 9 hour 45 minutes journey. The current best time I can find is 11 hours so this beats it much better. An issue would be being stuck behind a Cornish Mainline Stopper (Wrong track running might be possible if the Lines Signals were upgraded). With the time to Plymouth being 8 hours 25 minutes which is only 20 minutes better then a current XC from Glasgow Central to Plymouth with a change at New Street.
Skipping Worcester would save a good chunk of time as well here.

 

[4-SUB 4732]

How about this for a service Edinburgh/Glasgow-Carlisle-Preston-Manchester Piccadilly-Crewe-Birmingham New Street-Worcester Shrub Hill-Cheltenham Spa-Bristol Temple Meads-Taunton-Exeter St Davids-Plymouth-Truro-Penzance.
A long distance one but as far as I can see there is no service staying to the west with XC trains coming over from the East to the South West and West Coast trains coming up from London. Some hold time at Preston, Crewe, Temple Meads and Exeter would also help this stay on time.

From what I can gather Glasgow to Preston is around 2 hours 30 minutes normally with stops at Motherwell, Carlisle, Oxenholme Lake District and Lancaster before Preston. I guess this would take 2 hours 15 minutes cutting out the 2 stops. Preston to Manchester Piccadilly is around 40 minutes with that service stopping at Bolton and Oxford Road so maybe like 35 minutes. Piccadilly to Birmingham New Street is around 1 hour 45 minutes stopping at Wilmslow, Crewe, Stafford, Wolverhampton, Sandwell and Dudley before New Street this would probably take the same time with the hold at Crewe of like 15 minutes. This would head past Aston before reaching New Street but the lines seem to be of similar speed.
From New Street to Shrub Hill I can find a 40 minute service whish also stops at Droitwich Spa, Bromsgrove and University. This is 40 minutes but without the stops could be 30 minutes or less.
From Shrub Hill to Temple Meads I can find a Shrub Hill to Cheltenham Spa of 30 minutes stopping at Ashchurch for Tewkesbury so this would be 25 minutes and a Cheltenham Spa to Temple Meads of 40 minutes with a stop at Bristol Parkway so it could be 35 minutes so it total a 55 minute to an hour journey.
From Temple Meads to Plymouth I can find a journey of 2 hours with stops at Taunton, Tiverton Parkway, Exeter St Davids, Newton Abbot, Totnes. This could be a 1 hour 45 journey.
From Plymouth to Penzance I can find a 2 hour journey but with the reduced stops this could be a 1 hour 20 minute journey but this would probably get stuck behind a stopper.

I took a stop to slow a journey by 5 minutes with the slowing down, holding and accelerating required. I think this would be a 9 hour 45 minutes journey. The current best time I can find is 11 hours so this beats it much better. An issue would be being stuck behind a Cornish Mainline Stopper (Wrong track running might be possible if the Lines Signals were upgraded). With the time to Plymouth being 8 hours 25 minutes which is only 20 minutes better then a current XC from Glasgow Central to Plymouth with a change at New Street.
Skipping Worcester would save a good chunk of time as well here.

Oh good heavens.

 

[Bartsimho]

Oh good heavens.

A bit much? The idea was just a West Coast Cross Country service all the way. Maybe it's a bit too much.

 

[Halish Railway]

A bit much? The idea was just a West Coast Cross Country service all the way. Maybe it's a bit too much.

If HS2 could have been connected to the Camp Hill line in some way and Birmingham to Bristol and incrementally down to Plymouth were to be electrified then extending the planned Glasgow/Edinburgh to Birmingham Curzon Street down to the Southwest of England may make sense and alleviate some of the concerns about HS2 not serving enough of the country whilst significantly cutting travel times and competing with domestic air travel. Using existing infrastructure and going via Manchester would create a service that would take too long and would have too many performance liabilities.

Also if Birmingham to Bristol electrification were to happen, including the Worcester loop, then I'd suggest extending Cross City line trains to Worcester Shrub Hill and extending some Liverpool to Birmingham trains down to Bristol, stopping at stations unserved by Voyagers whilst getting Liverpool back onto the CrossCountry network .

 

[Bartsimho]

Just thinking that any new line should have Goods Yards if space allow at any population centre of 20,000 or more.
With ideas of decarbonisation moving to rail freight helps with last leg delivery by road.
Looking at maps on the MML Wellingborough, Kettering, Market Harborough, South Wigston, Syston, Loughborough, Langley Mill, Alfreton, Chesterfield. Subsidise rail freight a bit and it might help with the financial state as well.

 

[Bald Rick]

Just thinking that any new line should have Goods Yards if space allow at any population centre of 20,000 or more.
With ideas of decarbonisation moving to rail freight helps with last leg delivery by road.

a very significant proportion of our logistics network is not suited to this. Were it to be reconfigured in this way, there would need to be hundreds of billions spent on an entirely new logistics network, and we would have to accept that anything we want delivered is going to take the best part of a week to arrive rather than next day.

 

[Bartsimho]

Maybe a Northampton-Rugby-Coventry-Birmingham International-Birmingham New Street-Wolverhampton-Telford Central-Shrewsbury service.
Trying to look at service patterns both Shrewsbury and Wolverhampton to Birmingham trains are more stopping services and Northampton has a poor service for the size of place it is.

 

[4-SUB 4732]

Maybe a Northampton-Coventry-Birmingham International-Birmingham New Street-Wolverhampton-Telford Central-Shrewsbury service.
Trying to look at service patterns both Shrewsbury and Wolverhampton to Birmingham trains are more stopping services and Northampton has a poor service for the size of place it is.

Using what rolling stock?

I mean, coming up with through services only works when you aren’t proposing to use precious DMUs to run all the way from Wolverhampton to Northampton under the wires.

 

[Bartsimho]

Using what rolling stock?

I mean, coming up with through services only works when you aren’t proposing to use precious DMUs to run all the way from Wolverhampton to Northampton under the wires.

I was thinking maybe Class 768/9's. I had originally thought of repurposed Class 158's but their DMU's not using the Pantograph. Class 755's are the only new build commuter bimodes though.
There is an issue with a lack of Bi-mode more commuter trains as the extent of Electrification is patchy. maybe try and use B100 if possible on DMU's.

 

[The Planner]

I was thinking maybe Class 768/9's. I had originally thought of repurposed Class 158's but their DMU's not using the Pantograph. Class 755's are the only new build commuter bimodes though.
There is an issue with a lack of Bi-mode more commuter trains as the extent of Electrification is patchy. maybe try and use B100 if possible on DMU's.

Waste of a fast path on the Cov Wolves corridor that is.

 

[Bartsimho]

Waste of a fast path on the Cov Wolves corridor that is.

A Class 755 is 10mph under the speed limit between Cov and Stechford (15mi 9ch) when it's then at Speed Limit. All the way from Stechford to Wolverhampton the line SP is under the Classes Speed Limit with the line on the Shrewsbury not having a Speed Limit north of 70mph

 

[The Planner]

A Class 755 is 10mph under the speed limit between Cov and Stechford (15mi 9ch) when it's then at Speed Limit. All the way from Stechford to Wolverhampton the line SP is under the Classes Speed Limit with the line on the Shrewsbury not having a Speed Limit north of 70mph

That doesnt matter, another fast path isnt a good use for a service like that. That would make 5 with the Avanti and XC from Cov.

 

[Bartsimho]

That doesnt matter, another fast path isnt a good use for a service like that. That would make 5 with the Avanti and XC from Cov.

There is an issue that a Town such as Northampton with it's 250,000 people has a very poor service. Maybe once HS2 is done more WCML trains can have Northampton as a stop as standard. It's location would more suggest it would look towards the rest of the East Midlands than the West Midlands but it is on a loop off the WCML and nothing else.

 

[miklcct]

I wouldn’t be against slowing the Sheffield - London service down if there was one stop that was head and shoulders above the others

Passengers from Plymouth /Bristol/ Swansea see their London bound trains stop at Reading, but Reading is a growing place (both in terms of population and employment), in Railway terms it’s an interchange for Southampton/ Oxford/ Thames Valley stations towards London, coaches to Heathrow etc

But what’s the MML equivalent of Reading?

Bedford isn’t a big place, the Marston Vale line isn’t a particularly busy route, it’ll be more useful when East-West starts though

Luton is bigger but doesn’t offer any interchanges that Bedford cannot

Luton Airport is probably more useful for people in Yorkshire/ Midlands (than Bedford or central Luton), but then it’s not as if EMP has attracted huge numbers of long distance passengers - Luton Airport doesn’t seem to offer anything people in Yorkshire/ Midlands can’t get closer to home (whereas people from this neck of the woods would travel towards London for Heathrow / Gatwick which are sufficiently different to provincial offerings)

So do you slow the Sheffield service down by stopping it at all three? Sheffield to London trains are already taking as long as Leeds to London trains (despite Leeds being further north) and slower than York to London trains (York is further north still) - how many stops do we have to have in Bedfordshire to cater to these three different markets?

Because if the answer is that passengers for the airport need to change at Bedford or Luton then we might as well just have a stop at Kettering instead ) it’d be a hassle but at least the long distance trains wouldn’t get over-run with so many short distance passengers as would inevitably happen if you could use a non stop InterCity service from London to just Luton or Bedford

And what about St Albans? Lovely place, connections to Watford… Should we stop there too? West Hampstead would be a useful interchange for some passengers, why should they miss out?

Removing a Kettering stop from the Nottingham services would mean an awkward 15/45 gap, plus the two Nottingham trains are intended to connect with the two Corby trains - but putting a Sheffield service into the mix would mean a long wait at Kettering

(if Sheffield services are half hourly, Nottingham services are half hourly, Corby services are half hourly and the combined Leicester services are roughly every fifteen minutes then how do you give Kettering one Nottingham and one Sheffield stop per hour whilst connecting both to the Corby services and not bunching up the long distance trains?)

Nobody is saying that there’s “no” demand from Bedfordshire to the East Midlands, it’s just that it’s nothing like as much as the number of people you’d be inconveniencing by slowing down the InterCity services and making them less competitive against the M1

By stopping the trains at Luton and Bedford, additional customers who are currently put off by multiple changes (Leicester, Kettering, Bedford) can be attracted especially these journeys can be done on the M1 without entering inner London.

It must be said, if I lived in Bedford and was told I had to go to Kettering to change for a train to Leicester, and change again for Sheffield or Derby, I’d be pretty teed off.

The existing timetable as it is now, despite the Corby electric service, doesn’t work. A person from St Albans to Sheffield will, by my reckoning, have to change 3 times. It used to be 1 or 2 at worst.

Yes I believe the current timetable doesn't work at all. 4 changes for me to get to Sheffield (St Albans, Luton, Kettering, Leicester).

If all intercity services call at Luton Airport Parkway, 2 changes can be cut away.

Derby, Sheffield and Nottingham aren't bothered by Luton Airport - not when they have Leeds Bradford, East Mids, Manchester and Birmingham all closer.

Luton's target really isn't the "East Midlands" - quite the reverse. It's got plenty of custom from London and the Home Counties.

Luton and Stansted Airports have the greatest selection of low-cost airline destinations.

 

[Bald Rick]

Maybe a Northampton-Rugby-Coventry-Birmingham International-Birmingham New Street-Wolverhampton-Telford Central-Shrewsbury service.
Trying to look at service patterns both Shrewsbury and Wolverhampton to Birmingham trains are more stopping services and Northampton has a poor service for the size of place it is.

The number of people using the existing TfW service east of Birmingham New St is essentially peanuts. I can’t think of any notable demand from Northampton / Cov / Rugby to stations west of Wolverhampton.

 

[4-SUB 4732]

There is an issue that a Town such as Northampton with it's 250,000 people has a very poor service. Maybe once HS2 is done more WCML trains can have Northampton as a stop as standard. It's location would more suggest it would look towards the rest of the East Midlands than the West Midlands but it is on a loop off the WCML and nothing else.

That’s not an issue fundamentally.

A good quality, higher-frequency service to Rugby, as well as to Birmingham, Milton Keynes and London is fine.

I don’t follow your argument to then suggest it needs a service to Shrewsbury.

But, I would say I favour at least three an hour to Rugby, and three an hour to London, with two each way being fast ones to wherever they go to give people connecting opportunities to the Crewe, the Manchester and then hopefully one more in the fullness of time.

Northampton is also not the only railhead for a rather large area. Kettering and Market Harborough are arguably related.

That doesnt matter, another fast path isnt a good use for a service like that. That would make 5 with the Avanti and XC from Cov.

And as for this, I think people in train planning need to try and be less insular. It is okay for people to look beyond what currently exists.

You can’t shoot anything down based on now - things change very quickly when desired, usually by dubious politicians’ beliefs and some lunacy such as the failed LM recast with the Rugeley, Liverpool and whatever through services.

Be more open-minded. You might even enjoy it.

 

[Bartsimho]

The number of people using the existing TfW service east of Birmingham New St is essentially peanuts. I can’t think of any notable demand from Northampton / Cov / Rugby to stations west of Wolverhampton.

I was sort of trying to have one service on essentially 2 routes. A Northampton-Birmingham and a Birmingham-Shrewsbury which is faster than is available on the TfW and EJ trains both sides with airport access.

 

[Bald Rick]

I was sort of trying to have one service on essentially 2 routes. A Northampton-Birmingham and a Birmingham-Shrewsbury which is faster than is available on the TfW and EJ trains both sides with airport access.

Not sure how you’d do Birmingham - Shrewsbury faster than the TfW service.

 

[4-SUB 4732]

I was sort of trying to have one service on essentially 2 routes. A Northampton-Birmingham and a Birmingham-Shrewsbury which is faster than is available on the TfW and EJ trains both sides with airport access.

If you were fundamentally going to do this, you have to make a binary choice.

It’s either London to Birmingham via Northampton, and Birmingham to Liverpool, or perhaps London to Northampton and Northampton to Liverpool.

Now I don’t see, if done correctly, a major issue with doing this. You could make the decision to sort the rolling stock based on the idea that London to Northampton needs to be a certain way for peak commuter traffic, but as a London to Birmingham service it is difficult to do in a way that works beautifully from a stock perspective.

You could also reasonably suggest that the more suitable 350s could be used from Northampton to Liverpool, perhaps even in 8 car formation, and then use 730s south of Northampton.

In any event, there is scope to make Northampton’s services slightly better but a through service via Birmingham will just be slow and cumbersome.

 

[Bartsimho]

Northampton is also not the only railhead for a rather large area. Kettering and Market Harborough are arguably related.

But it is the only one which looks West as Kettering, Wellingborough and Market Harborough are all MML with a change needed at Leicester for Birmingham services

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 29 Jan 2023 ==

If you were fundamentally going to do this, you have to make a binary choice.

It’s either London to Birmingham via Northampton, and Birmingham to Liverpool, or perhaps London to Northampton and Northampton to Liverpool.

Now I don’t see, if done correctly, a major issue with doing this. You could make the decision to sort the rolling stock based on the idea that London to Northampton needs to be a certain way for peak commuter traffic, but as a London to Birmingham service it is difficult to do in a way that works beautifully from a stock perspective.

You could also reasonably suggest that the more suitable 350s could be used from Northampton to Liverpool, perhaps even in 8 car formation, and then use 730s south of Northampton.

In any event, there is scope to make Northampton’s services slightly better but a through service via Birmingham will just be slow and cumbersome.

The idea was a bit of a fill in the gap for now. Once HS2 the Northampton-Birmingham part should hopefully be redundant with all London WCML to Birmingham calling at Northampton as they can't beat HS2 to Birmingham

 

[The Planner]

That’s not an issue fundamentally.

A good quality, higher-frequency service to Rugby, as well as to Birmingham, Milton Keynes and London is fine.

I don’t follow your argument to then suggest it needs a service to Shrewsbury.

But, I would say I favour at least three an hour to Rugby, and three an hour to London, with two each way being fast ones to wherever they go to give people connecting opportunities to the Crewe, the Manchester and then hopefully one more in the fullness of time.

Northampton is also not the only railhead for a rather large area. Kettering and Market Harborough are arguably related.



And as for this, I think people in train planning need to try and be less insular. It is okay for people to look beyond what currently exists.

You can’t shoot anything down based on now - things change very quickly when desired, usually by dubious politicians’ beliefs and some lunacy such as the failed LM recast with the Rugeley, Liverpool and whatever through services.

Be more open-minded. You might even enjoy it.

Open minded doesnt make a difference when we dont specify the timetable as you noted. Open minded comes up with your example of the through workings which seasoned planners were clearly insular and warned about not working. May 18 comes to mind as well.

 

[tbtc]

There is an issue that a Town such as Northampton with it's 250,000 people has a very poor service. Maybe once HS2 is done more WCML trains can have Northampton as a stop as standard. It's location would more suggest it would look towards the rest of the East Midlands than the West Midlands but it is on a loop off the WCML and nothing else.

It has a poor service because the local landowners obstructed railway proposals ~150 years ago

As a result, a much faster alignment exists today that bypasses Northampton

The resultant time penalty for travelling “via Northampton” would make long distance journeys a lot less competitive

HS2 will change a lot of things but not the time penalty for diverting off the “classic” WCML thorough Northampton

By stopping the trains at Luton and Bedford, additional customers who are currently put off by multiple changes (Leicester, Kettering, Bedford) can be attracted especially these journeys can be done on the M1 without entering inner London

But how many people are really wanting to travel from Sheffield to Luton, compared to those travelling from Sheffield to London?

If there were a big market, you’d expect Stagecoach to have tried to serve it. Instead they realised that demand was so low that they replaced stops on rush hour trains with a (road) coach from Bedford to Kettering. Doesn’t that tell us something about the relative size of the markets we are taking about here?

 

[A0]

Luton and Stansted Airports have the greatest selection of low-cost airline destinations.

They have a wide selection - but so do Gatwick, Manchester and East Mids.

If you live in Sheffield or Nottingham you're *far* more likely to head for Manchester than either Luton or Stanstead - and that's got nothing to do with whether or not there's a direct train.

The thing with low cost airlines is people tend not to want to travel a long distance to the airport - otherwise the cost of getting *to* the airport offsets the low cost air fare - it's why the low cost carriers operate out of a cross section of airports which are geographically spread out.

 

[A0]

But how many people are really wanting to travel from Sheffield to Luton, compared to those travelling from Sheffield to London?

If there were a big market, you’d expect Stagecoach to have tried to serve it. Instead they realised that demand was so low that they replaced stops on rush hour trains with a (road) coach from Bedford to Kettering. Doesn’t that tell us something about the relative size of the markets we are taking about here?

Whilst I agree with your point and the numbers from Luton or Bedford to Leicester, Derby Sheffield are minimal - the observation about Stagecoach replacing trains with a coach is a bit unfair. That came about because of the timetable changes needed on Thameslink and the electrification of the Corby route, it was only ever an interim arrangement and I'm not sure it was Stagecoach's (East Midlands Trains at the time) decision as such.

 

[Bartsimho]

It has a poor service because the local landowners obstructed railway proposals ~150 years ago

As a result, a much faster alignment exists today that bypasses Northampton

The resultant time penalty for travelling “via Northampton” would make long distance journeys a lot less competitive

HS2 will change a lot of things but not the time penalty for diverting off the “classic” WCML thorough Northampton

It wouldn't remover the time penalty but it would make it so the time penalty is less consequential as the Regular WCML can't compete for speed no matter how many stops it skips.
I would also expect some Government pushing to prevent the Fast Intercity services competing as much with HS2. It does add 26 minutes to the journey but I would expect more of the Euston-Watford-Leighton Buzzard stopping services than the fast Euston-Birmingham services