Hypothetical: Post-HS2 WCML Timetable

[Bletchleyite]

But the current argument for HS2 is releasing capacity to improve services on the existing network, so shouldn't it be improving services to those major towns and cities not served by HS2, adding new destinations?

Ideally it might allow some entirely new services which cut across the historic mainline routes, like from Milton Keynes, through Northampton, Rugby and upto Nuneaton and over to Leicester and Nottingham.

Isn't that basically served by EWR and a change, though?

 

[Metrolink]

Isn't that basically served by EWR and a change, though?

Could services from Manchester or Liverpool run over to Leicester or Nottingham via Nuneaton (and then to Peterborough?)? If there are trains running from the Chilterns to the East Midlands,it basically is EWR but services from the NW could run to the East Midlands avoiding the hope valley. I think journey times to Leicester via Nuneaton from Manchester could be 2hrs and replace the Liverpool - Norwich if the service was extended even further.

 

[DJ_K666]

I’m going to focus my suggestion on what I think should replace the current Avanti & Cross Country services on the WCML. Let’s look at what we currently have:

Avanti:

• Euston, Milton Keynes, Stoke, Stockport, Piccadilly
• Euston, Stoke, Macclesfield, Stockport, Piccadilly
• Euston, Crewe, Wilmslow, Stockport, Piccadilly
• Euston, Watford, Coventry, Birmingham Int, New Street
• Euston, Milton Keynes, Coventry, Birmingham Int, New Street, Sandwell & Dudley, Wolverhampton, Crewe, Warrington, Wigan, Preston,..., Scotland
• Euston, Rugby, Coventry, Birmingham Int, New Street
• Euston, Warrington, Wigan, Preston,..., Scotland
• Euston, Milton Keynes, Crewe, Chester, North Wales
• Euston, Stafford, Crewe, Runcorn, Liverpool

Plus an additional Liverpool and an extension of a Birmingham service to Shrewsbury.

Cross Country:

• Piccadilly, Stockport, Macclesfield, Stoke, Stafford, Wolverhampton, New Street, Birmingham International, Coventry,..., Reading,..., South Coast
• Piccadilly, Stockport, Macclesfield, Stoke, Stafford, Wolverhampton, New Street, Cheltenham, Bristol,..., South West

With this in mind, HS2 will capture the fast London market for Piccadilly, Stockport, Wilmslow, Crewe, Liverpool, Runcorn, Macclesfield, Stoke, Stafford, New Street, Birmingham International, Preston, Wigan & Scotland. It will also capture the fast Cross Country to Birmingham market for Piccadilly and Stockport, plus it will take out the Manchester & Leeds/Newcastle market for Reading and the South Coast, given that a change at OOC or Euston will be faster and more frequent.

Midlands Engine Rail appear to be proposing Bristol to Birmingham services start at Moor Street, with some continuing to Leicester/Nottingham.

Therefore what needs filling in it’s place? I’d go with the following:

• 1 tph Euston - Piccadilly, calling at:
  • Watford, MK, Northampton, Rugby, Coventry, Bham Int, New Street, Sandwell & Dudley, Wolverhampton, Stafford, Stoke, Congleton, Macclesfield and Stockport
• 1 tph Euston - North Wales, calling at:
  • Watford, Milton Keynes, Rugby, Crewe and Chester, North Wales
• 1 tph Euston - Wrexham, calling at:
  • Watford, Northampton, Rugby, Coventry, Bham Int, New Street, Sandwell & Dudley, Wolverhampton and Shrewsbury.
• 1 tph Euston - Wolverhampton, calling at:
  • Watford, MK, Coventry, Bham Int, New Street, Sandwell & Dudley

Remaining paths should be allocated to further semi-fast London North Western services and stoppers.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Apr 2021 ==

I

I think they should get additional services but as localised stoppers

Really I think an extra train per hour between Rugby and Nuneaton as one per hour is too little. Maybe 3 per hour is too many. If I head to Leicester then I have to wait 58 minutes at Nuneaton which results in a 95 minute journey to go 17 miles which, quite frankly, is pathetic. the 58 minute wait is because you miss the Nuneaton to Leicester train by 2 minutes. Not good. I'd probably drive.

So much for getting me out of the car, so I award one extra venomous slow hand clap each to the DaFT, LNW and Cross Country for that one.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Really I think an extra train per hour between Rugby and Nuneaton as one per hour is too little. Maybe 3 per hour is too many. If I head to Leicester then I have to wait 58 minutes at Nuneaton which results in a 95 minute journey to go 17 miles which, quite frankly, is pathetic. the 58 minute wait is because you miss the Nuneaton to Leicester train by 2 minutes. Not good. I'd probably drive.

This sort of nonsense is why I propose a more Swiss-like approach of longer, less-frequent trains, but with connections planned to ease the journeys people actually want to make (you clearly can't do all of them, but road traffic surveys would give you a decent idea of journeys that people aren't making by rail because of this kind of thing). This is why I'm not in favour of the "metro style" proposal for the south WCML local services which I think has 5+ TPH from Euston to MKC and is just unnecessary.

 

[Purple Orange]

What rolling stock do people think should be used for WCML intercity services post HS2?

There appears to be a bit of a consensus forming around there being roughly 4 tph in place of the current 9 tph run by Avanti. I also think there will probably be 1 legacy XC service between Manchester, Birmingham & Bristol. Therefore what is effectively 11 tph is reduced to 5 tph across the WCML and it is must be assumed that the residual paths go to commuter focussed TOCs.

Yesterday I was opposed to a London-Bolton service via Manchester, but if the Manchester-Glasgow/Edinburgh services are still to be routed via Castlefield, then the legacy London-Manchester WCML service may as well be tied up with it.

(Obviously new rolling stock designs will emerge over the next 15-20 years, but let’s stick to variantsvwe have today for the purpose of discussion).

So what rolling stock would I like to see?

I think I’d like to see something with the look & feel of a Javelin train and not too dissimilar to an NPR train. 140 mph running won’t be required, but I think 125 mph capability should be there (I’m slowly changing my mind that it will be capped to 110mph on the south WCML). A 200m train with doors at 1/3 and 2/3, with 2+2 seating.

 

[DJ_K666]

This sort of nonsense is why I propose a more Swiss-like approach of longer, less-frequent trains, but with connections planned to ease the journeys people actually want to make (you clearly can't do all of them, but road traffic surveys would give you a decent idea of journeys that people aren't making by rail because of this kind of thing). This is why I'm not in favour of the "metro style" proposal for the south WCML local services which I think has 5+ TPH from Euston to MKC and is just unnecessary.

It would make things easier if the Crewe service ran 5 minutes earlier (It's often late though) and the Cross Country ran 5 minutes or so later. That would reduce the journey from Rugby to Leicester to 30 minutes or so with a much more acceptable wait at Nuneaton. Really Nuneaton is a town for escaping from not going to.

You're right, you can't do all of those Swiss things but maybe do as many as possible and then try to sort out the leftovers as best you can.

 

[Purple Orange]

It would make things easier if the Crewe service ran 5 minutes earlier (It's often late though) and the Cross Country ran 5 minutes or so later. That would reduce the journey from Rugby to Leicester to 30 minutes or so with a much more acceptable wait at Nuneaton. Really Nuneaton is a town for escaping from not going to.

Does the Midlands Connect initiative not allow for this?

 

[Bletchleyite]

I think I’d like to see something with the look & feel of a Javelin train and not too dissimilar to an NPR train. 140 mph running won’t be required, but I think 125 mph capability should be there (I’m slowly changing my mind that it will be capped to 110mph on the south WCML). A 200m train with doors at 1/3 and 2/3, with 2+2 seating.

Pendolinos might well still have a bit of life left in them, so in that case use those. 80x would work fine too. But ideally, something entirely new by then, I would very much hope that level boarding with "gap bridges" is a requirement for new stock by then so perhaps something looking more like a Stadler FLIRT uprated to 125.

Definitely 2+2 in Standard and 2+1 in 1st - sham 1st is not acceptable. About half tables and half airline seats, and avoid the temptation to cram in extra rows for airline seats, knackering the window alignment (or use the 158 as-built layout where you alternate them and the table gets the window and both pillars, and the airline seats just the window width). The 350/1 is made a rather less good train just to get 8 more seats in per 4-car unit.

I'm not sure about 200m, for more flexibility it might well be worth going for shorter units capable of doubling up for busier services. 130m (5x26m) doubling up to 260m seems to be rapidly becoming the long distance norm, and fits all the existing WCML IC platforms.

 

[DJ_K666]

Does the Midlands Connect initiative not allow for this?

If that's the ones that want to use part of the old Midland line and part of the ex GCR through Lutterworth then possibly, although in my view they'd be better off going in between Lutterworth and Magna Park to drum up more demand.

If it's not that then I'll have a Google.

 

[Glenn1969]

Midlands Connect will only happen if 2b is built in full which I thought was in quite severe doubt because the Treasury want to save money post Covid? Also I didn't think there were any plans for NPR to provide the Birmingham- Crewe- Manchester service and without 2b East I'm not sure how many trains will run from Euston or how HS2 will serve Sheffield and Leeds ?

 

[Purple Orange]

Midlands Connect will only happen if 2b is built in full which I thought was in quite severe doubt because the Treasury want to save money post Covid? Also I didn't think there were any plans for NPR to provide the Birmingham- Crewe- Manchester service and without 2b East I'm not sure how many trains will run from Euston or how HS2 will serve Sheffield and Leeds ?

Phase 2b east will happen. There has been modelling for the Piccadilly surfacecstation that highlights the 6 Leeds-Manc services, of which 4 go to Liverpool and 2 to Birmingham.

Also it doesn’t need to rely on a full eastern branch either, just a branch that enables services to Nottingham. If the full branch doesn’t happen, then it affects Leeds-Brum and Leeds-Leicester, but it doesn’t prevent NPR or much of Midlands Connect.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Apr 2021 ==

Pendolinos might well still have a bit of life left in them, so in that case use those. 80x would work fine too. But ideally, something entirely new by then, I would very much hope that level boarding with "gap bridges" is a requirement for new stock by then so perhaps something looking more like a Stadler FLIRT uprated to 125.

Definitely 2+2 in Standard and 2+1 in 1st - sham 1st is not acceptable. About half tables and half airline seats, and avoid the temptation to cram in extra rows for airline seats, knackering the window alignment (or use the 158 as-built layout where you alternate them and the table gets the window and both pillars, and the airline seats just the window width). The 350/1 is made a rather less good train just to get 8 more seats in per 4-car unit.

I'm not sure about 200m, for more flexibility it might well be worth going for shorter units capable of doubling up for busier services. 130m (5x26m) doubling up to 260m seems to be rapidly becoming the long distance norm, and fits all the existing WCML IC platforms.

Would a continuation of the 7-car IETs or something of similar length/capacity not work best perhaps? We have to remember that these trains would be serving secondary markets to HS2 and for the Manchester service would certainly need to be taking the XC approach of knitting 3 or 4 services together in to 1 service.

 

[Glenn1969]

But 2b East doesn't involve Manchester-Leeds services unless plans have changed.

 

[Purple Orange]

But 2b East doesn't involve Manchester-Leeds services unless plans have changed.

No, but I’m unsure about what issue you’re raising here.

 

[Hey 3]

What I think should be the WCML timetable post HS2(IC mainly)
1tph Blackpool(via TV, picking up Nuneaton, Lichfield TV and Tamworth)
1tph Holyhead(via B'ham)
1tph Shrewsbury
1tph Scotland(via Birmingham, Northampton and Manchester(merging the Man Air-Scot path with the London-Man path), all IC stops, plus Congleton and Deansgate)
Then the local and regional services
2tph Crewe, one via the Birmingham loop and the other via the Trent Valley, the
2tph Preston via TV(all TV stops), other via B'ham(semi-fast, plus Marston Green, Smethwick Galton Bridge and Dudley Port), 1tph stops at all stations between Crewe and WBQ, other non stop
2tph Liverpool via B'ham, 1tph stops at all stations between Crewe and Runcorn, other non stop to Runcorn from Crewe, and off peak 1tph starts at B'ham New St, and all call at L'pool S Parkway
1tph Manchester (Stockport, C Hulme, Maccs, Congleton, Kidsgrove, Longport, Stoke, Stafford, Rugeley TV, Cannock, Walsall, Tame Bridge Parkway, Birmingham New Street, Birmingham International, Coventry, Rugby, Northampton, MKC, Bletchley, Leighton Buzzard, Hemel Hempstead, Watford and Euston
St Albans Abbey-Euston
All stations.

 

[Purple Orange]

What I think should be the WCML timetable post HS2(IC mainly)
1tph Blackpool(via TV, picking up Nuneaton, Lichfield TV and Tamworth)
1tph Holyhead(via B'ham)
1tph Shrewsbury
1tph Scotland(via Birmingham, Northampton and Manchester(merging the Man Air-Scot path with the London-Man path), all IC stops, plus Congleton and Deansgate)
Then the local and regional services
2tph Crewe, one via the Birmingham loop and the other via the Trent Valley, the
2tph Preston via TV(all TV stops), other via B'ham(semi-fast, plus Marston Green, Smethwick Galton Bridge and Dudley Port), 1tph stops at all stations between Crewe and WBQ, other non stop
2tph Liverpool via B'ham, 1tph stops at all stations between Crewe and Runcorn, other non stop to Runcorn from Crewe, and off peak 1tph starts at B'ham New St, and all call at L'pool S Parkway
1tph Manchester (Stockport, C Hulme, Maccs, Congleton, Kidsgrove, Longport, Stoke, Stafford, Rugeley TV, Cannock, Walsall, Tame Bridge Parkway, Birmingham New Street, Birmingham International, Coventry, Rugby, Northampton, MKC, Bletchley, Leighton Buzzard, Hemel Hempstead, Watford and Euston
St Albans Abbey-Euston
All stations.

What about the cross country elements? Or is that replaced by the Manc-Brum-London services?

 

[Metrolink]

What I think should be the WCML timetable post HS2(IC mainly)
1tph Blackpool(via TV, picking up Nuneaton, Lichfield TV and Tamworth)
1tph Holyhead(via B'ham)
1tph Shrewsbury
1tph Scotland(via Birmingham, Northampton and Manchester(merging the Man Air-Scot path with the London-Man path), all IC stops, plus Congleton and Deansgate)
Then the local and regional services
2tph Crewe, one via the Birmingham loop and the other via the Trent Valley, the
2tph Preston via TV(all TV stops), other via B'ham(semi-fast, plus Marston Green, Smethwick Galton Bridge and Dudley Port), 1tph stops at all stations between Crewe and WBQ, other non stop
2tph Liverpool via B'ham, 1tph stops at all stations between Crewe and Runcorn, other non stop to Runcorn from Crewe, and off peak 1tph starts at B'ham New St, and all call at L'pool S Parkway
1tph Manchester (Stockport, C Hulme, Maccs, Congleton, Kidsgrove, Longport, Stoke, Stafford, Rugeley TV, Cannock, Walsall, Tame Bridge Parkway, Birmingham New Street, Birmingham International, Coventry, Rugby, Northampton, MKC, Bletchley, Leighton Buzzard, Hemel Hempstead, Watford and Euston
St Albans Abbey-Euston
All stations.

Totally agree with all you have said, I think we have quite a similar view. I think it includes all the stations that are missed on HS2 aswell (especially Blackpool, I really want to see that happen!)

 

[DJ_K666]

What I think should be the WCML timetable post HS2(IC mainly)
1tph Blackpool(via TV, picking up Nuneaton, Lichfield TV and Tamworth)
1tph Holyhead(via B'ham)
1tph Shrewsbury
1tph Scotland(via Birmingham, Northampton and Manchester(merging the Man Air-Scot path with the London-Man path), all IC stops, plus Congleton and Deansgate)
Then the local and regional services
2tph Crewe, one via the Birmingham loop and the other via the Trent Valley, the
2tph Preston via TV(all TV stops), other via B'ham(semi-fast, plus Marston Green, Smethwick Galton Bridge and Dudley Port), 1tph stops at all stations between Crewe and WBQ, other non stop
2tph Liverpool via B'ham, 1tph stops at all stations between Crewe and Runcorn, other non stop to Runcorn from Crewe, and off peak 1tph starts at B'ham New St, and all call at L'pool S Parkway
1tph Manchester (Stockport, C Hulme, Maccs, Congleton, Kidsgrove, Longport, Stoke, Stafford, Rugeley TV, Cannock, Walsall, Tame Bridge Parkway, Birmingham New Street, Birmingham International, Coventry, Rugby, Northampton, MKC, Bletchley, Leighton Buzzard, Hemel Hempstead, Watford and Euston
St Albans Abbey-Euston
All stations.

Including a Rugby stop on that Blackpool would be useful for me. Like I said 1tph to Nuneaton is nowhere near enough for me to give up the car and the bus to Leicester takes 2 hours!!!

 

[Hey 3]

What about the cross country elements? Or is that replaced by the Manc-Brum-London services?

They will not use the south WCML, but I will include them in an edit.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Apr 2021 ==

Including a Rugby stop on that Blackpool would be useful for me. Like I said 1tph to Nuneaton is nowhere near enough for me to give up the car and the bus to Leicester takes 2 hours!!!

Nuneaton will not get 1tph, they will have 1tph IC call, plus all LNWR calls(via TV).
Edit:
In my plan, all TV stops(inc Nuneaton will have 2tph Preston as well as 1tph Crewe and all major TV stations get IC calls.
Cross Country services
1tph Manchester - Bournemouth via Wilmslow(calling only at IC stops, plus Alderley Edge)
1tph Manchester - Bristol via Stoke(calling only at IC stations)
1tph Manchester - Brighton via Coventry, Nuneaton and Clapham Junction
1tph Liverpool - Plymouth

 

[DJ_K666]

They will not use the south WCML, but I will include them in an edit.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Apr 2021 ==


Nuneaton will not get 1tph, they will have 1tph IC call, plus all LNWR calls(via TV).
Edit:
In my plan, all TV stops(inc Nuneawill have

Really Rugby north via TV needs 2 stoppers p/h plus one IC at the moment (and hopefully it's due to the Covid timetable) there's one stopper at XX42 so trying to get anywhere is a bit limiting. Not that I need to yet. Fingers crossed that come June there will be better timings and a better connection at Nuneaton for Leicester as really trains missing each other by 2 minutes is unacceptable.

 

[Hey 3]

More WCML services
2tph Crewe(from Stoke) shuttle, all stations(Longport, Kidsgrove, Alsager, and Crewe)
1tph Liverpool/Manchester to Derby via Stoke(note 1tph to each destination, not 1tp2h)
2tph Manchester Oxford Road(1tph)/Manchester Victoria(1tph) to Crewe via Chat Moss, all stations(inc a rebuilt Kenyon Jn) to WBQ then Acton Bridge, Hartford and Winsford
Note: @Metrolink can have credit for the idea of the Manchester Vic/Ox Rd - Crewe service
2tph Warrington BQ- Wigan NW(Earlestown, NLW, rebuilt Golborne, and Wigan NW)
1 freight from Trafford Park to Crewe Basford Hall via Styal/Stockport.

 

[JonathanH]

1tph Manchester - Brighton via Coventry and Nuneaton

What capacity is HS2 freeing up on the Brighton line? Not happening.

 

[Glenn1969]

No, but I’m unsure about what issue you’re raising here.

You said there were plans for Birmingham- Manchester- Leeds services. AFAIK there aren't and HS2b and NPR are separate projects. My personal view is still that NPR new infrastructure won't happen apart from any plans under the Transpennine Route Upgrade

 

[Hey 3]

What capacity is HS2 freeing up on the Brighton line? Not happening.

Note it is the WCML, and I am sure BML has a few paths left.

 

[A0]

I have to say too many of the proposals on this thread have lead to the demise of so many crayons for so little benefit.

We keep coming back to 'lets provide some "Inter city" service to some 2 horse towns" - (I'm looking primarly at the TV stations there) - without actually looking at where people *want* to travel to from those places. Yes, I'm sure it would be very nice to give Lichfield TV an Inter City service to London - but how many people will actually *use* it ? Just because post HS 2 there will be some capacity on the WCML it still has to be used sensibly.

 

[DJ_K666]

What capacity is HS2 freeing up on the Brighton line? Not happening.

Useful for me to visit family as long as it stops at Rugby. And it'd avoid me having to use Southern too much.

 

[Hey 3]

Useful for me to visit family as long as it stops at Rugby. And it'd avoid me having to use Southern too much.

My propsed service will stop there

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 11 Apr 2021 ==

I have to say too many of the proposals on this thread have lead to the demise of so many crayons for so little benefit.

We keep coming back to 'lets provide some "Inter city" service to some 2 horse towns" - (I'm looking primarly at the TV stations there) - without actually looking at where people *want* to travel to from those places. Yes, I'm sure it would be very nice to give Lichfield TV an Inter City service to London - but how many people will actually *use* it ? Just because post HS 2 there will be some capacity on the WCML it still has to be used sensibly.

We are using capacity wisely, not say stupid Inter City calls at Polesworth.

 

[DJ_K666]

My propsed service will stop there

Ah good as I work opposite the station. I do get to see some interesting things put of the window while I'm cashing in at the bus garage, it has to be said (an ECML EMU behind a class 37 was last week's goodness)

 

[21C101]

The proposals seem to lack imagination and echo the pre HS2 service.

Also Crossrail might be in the picture for suburban services, but leaving that out. I think something along the following lines would make more sense.

4 Per hour Euston clockface, Watford, Bletchley, MK, Northampton, Long Buckby, Rugby, Coventry. 2 Extend to Birmingham New St, 2 to Nuneaton.

2 Per hour Clockface Harrow, Watford and stations to Tring.

2 Per Hour Clockface, West London Line to Wembley, Harrow, Watford and stations to Milton Keynes

2 Per Hour, Clockface Euston, Watford, Hemel, Leighton Buzzard, Bletchley, MK, Rugby, Nuneaton, Trent Valley Stations, Stafford, Stoke one to Manchester, one to Liverpool via Crewe.

2 per hour Euston, Watford, MK, Rugby, Coventry, Intl, New St, Sandwell, Wolverhampton and stations to Shrewsbury.

2 per hour Euston, MK, one to Stoke, Macc, Stockport Manchester, one to Crewe, Chester, Holyhead.

1 per hour Bristol, Bristol Parkway, Cheltenham, Birmingham New St Sandwell, Wolverhampton, Stafford Stoke, Macc, Stockport, Manchester.

1 per hour, Cardiff, Newport, Gloucester, Cheltenham, Birmingham New St, Sandwell, Wolverhampton, Stafford and stations to Glasgow and/or Edinburgh.

 

[Metrolink]

The proposals seem to lack imagination and echo the pre HS2 service.

Also Crossrail might be in the picture for suburban services, but leaving that out. I think something along the following lines would make more sense.

4 Per hour Euston clockface, Watford, Bletchley, MK, Northampton, Long Buckby, Rugby, Coventry. 2 Extend to Birmingham New St, 2 to Nuneaton.

2 Per hour Clockface Harrow, Watford and stations to Tring.

2 Per Hour Clockface, West London Line to Wembley, Harrow, Watford and stations to Milton Keynes

2 Per Hour, Clockface Euston, Watford, Hemel, Leighton Buzzard, Bletchley, MK, Rugby, Nuneaton, Trent Valley Stations, Stafford, Stoke one to Manchester, one to Liverpool via Crewe.

2 per hour Euston, Watford, MK, Rugby, Coventry, Intl, New St, Sandwell, Wolverhampton and stations to Shrewsbury.

2 per hour Euston, MK, one to Stoke, Macc, Stockport Manchester, one to Crewe, Chester, Holyhead.

1 per hour Bristol, Bristol Parkway, Cheltenham, Birmingham New St Sandwell, Wolverhampton, Stafford Stoke, Macc, Stockport, Manchester.

1 per hour, Cardiff, Newport, Gloucester, Cheltenham, Birmingham New St, Sandwell, Wolverhampton, Stafford and stations to Glasgow and/or Edinburgh.

The proposals may ‘lack imagination’, however stations need to be served rather than some extravagant proposals, that may prove useless, or uneconomic for that matter.

Otherwise your proposed service pattern seems good and includes Manchester - Bristol so keeps me happy.

 

[krus_aragon]

What I think should be the WCML timetable post HS2(IC mainly)
...
1tph Holyhead(via B'ham)

What is your thinking on the above routing? (I presume it's to be via Stafford and Crewe, as opposed to Shrewsbury?)