Hypothetical: Post-HS2 WCML Timetable

[HSTEd]

What would yours be?

Something resembling the right hand image:



Although I have since come to think MKC should be all stops station.

 

[HST43257]

Something resembling the right hand image:

View attachment 94178

Although I have since come to think MKC should be all stops station.

I would go with the right hand image, as long as you completely get rid of the Liverpool service, and change the stops at WFJ, MKC and RUG.

1 Birmingham and the Manchester can stop at WFJ and MKC, while the other Birmingham and the North Wales both call at Rugby and Milton Keynes.

 

[Metrolink]

Something resembling the right hand image:

View attachment 94178

Although I have since come to think MKC should be all stops station.

I agree with the right hand image. I agree with the MKC all stops but maybe that’s because I’ve been reading EWR threads too much.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 10 Apr 2021 ==

1 Birmingham and the Manchester can stop at WFJ and MKC, while the other Birmingham and the North Wales both call at Rugby and Milton Keynes.

I think Manchester needs a service to Rugby, MKC not alternating I think the connection is important. Also some trains should call at Nuneaton for connection to Leicester and East Midlands.

 

[Purple Orange]

Something resembling the right hand image:

View attachment 94178

Although I have since come to think MKC should be all stops station.

There should be more stops on the Euston - Piccadilly via Stoke, as it is mirroring the HS2 service to Macclesfield, which will also call at Stafford. I’d also route the Euston - Piccadilly via Crewe through Stoke instead, as Macclesfield & Stoke won’t have an alternative to Brum, but Crewe & Wilmslow will have HS2 to access.

The other option is to have Cross Country to run a Manchester-Birmingham service, but we need to remember that the plan for Midland Connect is to route Bristol-Birmingham to the East Midlands and another to terminate at Moor Street.

 

[CW2]

I would continue selected Euston - Manchester service via Salford Crescent and Bolton to Preston, Kirkham and Blackpool North.

 

[Purple Orange]

I would continue selected Euston - Manchester service via Salford Crescent and Bolton to Preston, Kirkham and Blackpool North.

No chance. Castlefield needs to be free of long distance services.

 

[Glenn1969]

But anything relying on Midlands Connect and using HS2 for Leeds/Newcastle services assumes HS2 2b will happen in full. Which I thought had been dismissed as not happening by most people in here?. Presume that would also mean the 18tph will be reduced?

 

[CW2]

No chance. Castlefield needs to be free of long distance services.

That may be the current thinking, following the monumental cock-up of the timetabling of the corridor pre-Covid, but post-Covid and post-HS2 it may well be a different set of priorities. The London - Manchester fast route will be HS2, so a long-distance semi-fast Euston - Manchester - Blackpool would seem to serve a number of markets. Indeed, it would provide more capacity through the Castlefield Corridor than the endless procession of 2 / 3 / 4 car Multiple Units which are currently in favour.

 

[Purple Orange]

That may be the current thinking, following the monumental cock-up of the timetabling of the corridor pre-Covid, but post-Covid and post-HS2 it may well be a different set of priorities. The London - Manchester fast route will be HS2, so a long-distance semi-fast Euston - Manchester - Blackpool would seem to serve a number of markets. Indeed, it would provide more capacity through the Castlefield Corridor than the endless procession of 2 / 3 / 4 car Multiple Units which are currently in favour.

Castlefield needs to become a high frequency route with a few routes serving it. Euston-Manchester-Blackpool is just joining services together that are better off separate.

 

[JonathanH]

Indeed, it would provide more capacity through the Castlefield Corridor than the endless procession of 2 / 3 / 4 car Multiple Units which are currently in favour.

Yes, but a 6-car high capacity EMU formation is better than a unit built for high speed services.

 

[CW2]

Castlefield needs to become a high frequency route with a few routes serving it. Euston-Manchester-Blackpool is just joining services together that are better off separate.

I agree that Castlefield needs to avoid any repetition of the previous scenario where competing TOCs filled up all available white space with too many badly-timed small trains. However it depends what you are trying to achieve. I'd say there is a case for high-quality regular services from south of Manchester via Bolton to Preston and Blackpool. A through Euston - Bolton service would be a popular move.

Yes, but a 6-car high capacity EMU formation is better than a unit built for high speed services.

Agreed, up to a point. I'm not suggesting there should be loads of Pendolinos going through the Castlefield Corridor, but one an hour (per direction) on limited stops wouldn't be the end of the world. By all means have your high capacity EMUs shuttling back and fore to other locations, but don't rule out the Inter City market en masse.

 

[EllieAquitrain]

Midlands Engine Rail appear to be proposing Bristol to Birmingham services start at Moor Street, with some continuing to Leicester/Nottingham.

Would that be with a reversal then?

 

[Purple Orange]

I agree that Castlefield needs to avoid any repetition of the previous scenario where competing TOCs filled up all available white space with too many badly-timed small trains. However it depends what you are trying to achieve. I'd say there is a case for high-quality regular services from south of Manchester via Bolton to Preston and Blackpool. A through Euston - Bolton service would be a popular move.

Agreed, up to a point. I'm not suggesting there should be loads of Pendolinos going through the Castlefield Corridor, but one an hour (per direction) on limited stops wouldn't be the end of the world. By all means have your high capacity EMUs shuttling back and fore to other locations, but don't rule out the Inter City market en masse.

Is this really just about connecting Bolton with a direct service to London?

Would that be with a reversal then?

Possibly, although I’m unsure if their plans a centred on New Street for the through journeys. They don’t appear to have any plans for Bristol - Manchester or Reading - Manchester, despite addressing the existence of getting there via HS2. I think they expect people will prefer to change trains to shorten their journey time.

 

[krus_aragon]

In theory a much increased service to North Wales would be possible without any increase in the number of paths. There's already an hourly Avanti service to Chester which could easily be extended.

Increased services to Shrewsbury / Wrexham / Llandudno / Bangor / Holyhead would definitely be nice, but then the key question is whether there's a realistic demand for them.

An all-day two-hourly service to Bangor/Holyhead, on top of the current (hourly) peak services, would be perfect for the coast. Hourly all-day would probaby be overkill, particularly with TfW's planned increase to 3tph east of Llandudno Jn. There's not much need for Llandudno terminators, at least not during the week. There's 2tph of local services to the Junction for connecting services.

I'll leave Wrexham and Shrewsbury comments to those closer to the action.

(Bee-in-bonnet mode: We know that there must be some significant service improvements on their way: HS2 doesn't give any Barnett consequentials to Wales because Wales benefits directly from HS2. So I'm really looking forward to seeing what these benefits will be...)

 

[Metrolink]

A through Euston - Bolton service would be a popular move.

I don’t think it’s necessary, and avoiding the Castlefield Corridor requires reversing at Wigan. I think Bolton has sufficient service to easily transfer at Wigan onto HS2.

In my mind I think Wigan deserves another HS2 or WCML service because with the current planned HS2 timetable it seems Wigan only gets 1tph. I had earlier suggested a WCML (or HS2 if possible) service to Preston or Blackpool North hourly, so Wigan is connected still to London and The Midlands.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I don’t think it’s necessary, and avoiding the Castlefield Corridor requires reversing at Wigan. I think Bolton has sufficient service to easily transfer at Wigan onto HS2.

In my mind I think Wigan deserves another HS2 or WCML service because with the current planned HS2 timetable it seems Wigan only gets 1tph. I had earlier suggested a WCML (or HS2 if possible) service to Preston or Blackpool North hourly, so Wigan is connected still to London and The Midlands.

FWIW one of the official plans had a Euston-Manchester-Scotland replacing the Brum-Scotland (which would be rendered pointless by full HS2 implementation, as that would provide a faster Brum-Scotland hourly service). It would also replace the TPE as well as adding capacity (9 or 11-car vs 5-car) and provide a Bolton-London direct hourly service. Castlefield is the main issue with it, but if it could be timed for a dwell of 5 minutes at 13/14 it would probably work as it would no longer be a prime Manchester-London service.

So fully post HS2 I would go with IC services thus:
- Euston-North Wales, calling at MKC, Crewe, Chester then wherever (faster than the others to compensate for lack of HS2). I like the idea of 2 hourly all day, though hourly would potentially mean a tidier timetable. Ideally I'd run fast to Crewe but then there'd be no MKC-Crewe other than the TV slow which would be sub-optimal for connectivity.
- 2 x Euston-Brum, calling at Watford, MKC, Rugby, Coventry and International. Maybe extend one to Wolves if that makes them happy
- 1 x Euston-Manc-Edinburgh, calling at Watford, MKC, Rugby, Stafford, Stoke, Stockport, Picc, Bolton, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle, Lockerbie, Haymarket and Waverley. Might be worth doing Nuneaton and either Lichfield or Tamworth alternating every 2 hours on this one.
- Mothball or fully close Colwich unless it's useful for freight.

For "IR" I'd have 2tph Euston,Watford,MKC,Rugby, all stations via the Trent Valley to Crewe. I would ideally have these operated with IC style stock, e.g. whatever passes for 80x by then. Decide properly on Polesworth - if it stays open, one of these would serve Atherstone and one Polesworth, otherwise close it and both serve Atherstone. There may be an argument to extend one of these to Liverpool Lime St if it looks like 2 x 200m HS2 isn't providing enough capacity.

South WCML local services (which would be on fasts and slows) are more difficult. I think I'd regularise them a bit more to a half hourly pattern, giving the minor stations 2tph, the bigger ones 2 fast 2 slow, and the major ones (i.e. MKC and WFJ) all 6. So something like:

2 x Euston-Tring all mainline stations (including Wembley C)
2 x Euston, WFJ, Hemel, Berko, Tring, Cheddington, Leighton, Bletchley, MKC (terminates)
2 x Euston, WFJ, Leighton, Bletchley, MKC, Wolverton, Northampton
2 x Euston, MKC, Wolverton, Northampton, Long Buckby, Rugby, Coventry, Intl, New St
2 or 4 x Cov-New St(-Wolves?) following directly behind, all stations
1 x Southern to Bletchley
1 x Southern to Watford

The fasts and slows should be "flighted" so as to ensure connections are smooth without too much waiting. So for example the aim should be that the Tring terminator arrives about 5 minutes before the following fast catches it up. (It's a real shame the south WCML is paired by speed and built with 2 side platforms and a central island, as if the GC practice of two islands and paired by direction had been followed the interchange would be super-smooth).

(plus Oxford-MKC, Aylesbury-MKC and Cambridge-MKC, probably hourly each, between Bletchley and MKC only)

Liverpool-Brum 2tph as at present.

No 4-car services at all. Absolute minimum of 5.730 or 8.350, with peak services strengthened to 10.730 or 12.350.

 

[The Planner]

Lots of talk about closing Colwich Stone. Not going to happen and clearly no realistic plans for it considering it is being re-signaled in about 18 months. The money you would save (not an actual lot) would be spent on sorting out Stone, Whitehouse, Milford, the slows and Stafford No1. You still have conflicts.

 

[NoRoute]

Something resembling the right hand image:

Although I have since come to think MKC should be all stops station.

What's happened to Northampton? Population of over 200,000 people and growing, might some of them want to travel North on at least one IC service?

Also what about Tamworth, it currently gets a fast IC service to London, takes about an hour at it's best, would that be axed?

 

[Bletchleyite]

Lots of talk about closing Colwich Stone. Not going to happen and clearly no realistic plans for it considering it is being re-signaled in about 18 months. The money you would save (not an actual lot) would be spent on sorting out Stone, Whitehouse, Milford, the slows and Stafford No1. You still have conflicts.

What would you want to use it, then? There would be considerable connectivity benefits to serving Stafford on the residual Manchester. Freight perhaps?

 

[Metrolink]

(Just a thought here) what about Crewe - Manchester fast services post HS2? Could there be a Picc - Stockport - Crewe (- Stafford?) so it maintains its connection with other surrounding areas like Winsford and Kidsgrove? Also best way to get to Chester if on a fast.

 

[Bletchleyite]

What's happened to Northampton? Population of over 200,000 people and growing, might some of them want to travel North on at least one IC service?

In my proposal they'd get a faster Birmingham service as local stops north of Cov would be removed from the "LNR" service, so it'd be no slower than an IC, it'd just be down to the "door position debate". I don't think there is a justification for running the Manchester that way, and definitely not the North Wales because that can't go onto HS2 so really needs to be kept as fast as possible. I also don't think a second Manchester would be a sensible use of line capacity.

 

[Metrolink]

What's happened to Northampton? Population of over 200,000 people and growing, might some of them want to travel North on at least one IC service?

Northampton’s ICs are pretty poor anyway, but maybe could be added on a service to Preston/Crewe/North Wales. I’m not sure it’s worth stopping non-stop Manchester’s. Birmingham is also a possibility.

 

[Bletchleyite]

(Just a thought here) what about Crewe - Manchester fast services post HS2?

Er, HS2 will provide fast Manchester-Crewe services.

 

[Metrolink]

Er, HS2 will provide fast Manchester-Crewe services.

Oh my mistake, I thought they avoided Crewe!

 

[The Planner]

What would you want to use it, then? There would be considerable connectivity benefits to serving Stafford on the residual Manchester. Freight perhaps?

This one has genuine diversionary use (and not in the lets try to use it as a case to reopen a line), even HS2 would probably object to its closure.

 

[Bletchleyite]

This one has genuine diversionary use (and not in the lets try to use it as a case to reopen a line), even HS2 would probably object to its closure.

Ah, possibly keep it for that then. But I think the residual ICs should serve Stafford, one of the key values of HS2 is allowing more stops for better connectivity on residual IC services.

 

[Metrolink]

This one has genuine diversionary use (and not in the lets try to use it as a case to reopen a line), even HS2 would probably object to its closure.

I agree, I think there isn’t a point in closing it if it isn’t causing any major issues. I doubt that services will cease and in reality not every service will stop at Stafford if it were to close.

 

[Bletchleyite]

I agree, I think there isn’t a point in closing it if it isn’t causing any major issues. I doubt that services will cease and in reality not every service will stop at Stafford if it were to close.

There is only likely to be one service per hour that could use it - the residual Manchester. You could keep missing Stafford on it, I suppose, but running it that way purely to keep the line open (rather than running say one Parly a day at a quiet hour) would be tail-wagging-dog.

 

[NoRoute]

Northampton’s ICs are pretty poor anyway, but maybe could be added on a service to Preston/Crewe/North Wales. I’m not sure it’s worth stopping non-stop Manchester’s. Birmingham is also a possibility.

But the current argument for HS2 is releasing capacity to improve services on the existing network, so shouldn't it be improving services to those major towns and cities not served by HS2, adding new destinations?

Ideally it might allow some entirely new services which cut across the historic mainline routes, like from Milton Keynes, through Northampton, Rugby and upto Nuneaton and over to Leicester and Nottingham.

 

[Purple Orange]

(Just a thought here) what about Crewe - Manchester fast services post HS2? Could there be a Picc - Stockport - Crewe (- Stafford?) so it maintains its connection with other surrounding areas like Winsford and Kidsgrove? Also best way to get to Chester if on a fast.

I expect that since the inclusion of a north facing junction at Crewe to get back on to the HS2 line, it will actually be NPR trains that serve the fast Crewe - Manchester services before heading to Birmingham Curzon Street. There will probably still be the hourly TfW service from Cardiff, although I think this should go via Newton and in to Victoria (along with the North Wales services).