Hull station - low passenger growth

[MancMetro]

Over the last ten years British passenger numbers have increased by around 50-60%. Here are the numbers for a few individual stations.

                  Passengers (mil)
                  2004/05  2014/15  Increase
           Leeds  14.734   28.848   96%
       Penistone  0.107    0.160    50%
            Hull  1.961    2.119    8%

Leeds has had very impressive passenger growth which has no doubt been helped by service improvements over that time period. A station like Penistone, which has seen no improvements (still an hourly service with Pacers), has still recorded a 50% increase in that time period. This presumably reflects the external drivers of increased rail usage such as increasing affluence, more city commuting, increased road congestion etc.

In contrast, Hull has recorded a modest 8% increase. For stations in major settlements, I've not seen another with such low growth. I was wondering what people think is behind this? I don't think services have improved much there, but 8% is still very low if places like Penistone have increased by 50%. The economy in Hull has been sluggish, although the same could be said of other places that have seen better growth.

Another idea I had is that rail is simply not competitive compared with roads in that area. Hull has the Humber Bridge to the south, and the M62 to the west which is relatively quiet between Hull - Leeds. In comparison rail journey times from Hull are very long (56 min to Leeds). Perhaps if journey times could be improved through increased line speeds and/or electrification, there might be a lot of untapped passenger growth to be had in Hull.

 

[yorksrob]

I suspect that the lack of a significant suburban network will have a lot to do with the differential between there and West Yorkshire.

Additionally I suspect that Hull suffers from 'lack of a PTE' syndrome. The fares in East Yorkshire seem to be set for yuppie rural dwellers rather than the urban residents of Hull.

It would be interesting to see a comparison with Middlesbrough, which is also a largish urban settlement with a modest local railway network and no PTE.

 

[Camden]

Hull is a medium sized city of 250k people, with a wider region of 500k. Its usage seems in line with other northern cities of its type (such as Stoke).

If you're not a major city, or aren't a town with a large number of commuters into a major city, then you're likely not going to see much growth in the current climate.

Leeds economy has grown in the past ten years, and while by no means is it the largest northern city (population of around 700k in its urban area that might use the station), it has only one city centre/inner city station so everything is concentrated into one place. With the improvements made to the station and subsequent regeneration of the area the new entrance facilitates, there is probably scope for further such growth.

 

[tbtc]

I suspect that the lack of a significant suburban network will have a lot to do with the differential between there and West Yorkshire.

Additionally I suspect that Hull suffers from 'lack of a PTE' syndrome. The fares in East Yorkshire seem to be set for yuppie rural dwellers rather than the urban residents of Hull

Those would be reasons for why Hull's railway use was historically behind stations in similar sized towns/ cities in northern England, but don't explain why passenger numbers in Hull have grown by less than 1% a year over the decade.

You could argue that Hull's passenger numbers are below those you'd expect to see in a city with 250,000 in the boundaries/ 500,000 in the urban area because...

...Hull is virtually the end of the line on the edge of the country (rather than the much bigger numbers you get at smaller towns like Doncaster)...

...Hull's socio-economic / demographic / employment situation means fewer of the rich commuters you get in bigger cities...

...the lack of suburban stations (albeit places like Sheffield don't have many either)...

...the city isn't served by train lines from every direction (people from Lincolnshire are going to drive over the Humber Bridge instead of going inland to Doncaster)...

...but none of that has changed over the past decade - whilst those are reasons for passenger numbers having a low base, they don't explain why Hull hasn't kept pace with the national average.

The period since 2004 has seen some economic growth, some recession and some slump - to which different cities were affected at different rates, but don't explain why Hull has been significantly below par.

If we take Penistone as a benchmark (a station with the same hourly service I think it's always had since privatisation, and essentially the same kind of stock) then Hull has underperformed. And Penistone hasn't seen huge demographic/ socio-economic changes over the past decade (other than the old cattle market being replaced by a Tesco).

You could even argue that Hull could be doing better than average over the past decade. The 2004 baseline that the OP has used was when HT had just started up (so running a few 100mph 170s a day, rather than the faster and more frequent service with 180s today)... the 2004 baseline was before the hourly TPE service was upgraded to 170/185s... Hull won't be affected by the reduction in passengers caused by the (perfectly reasonable) Northern "evening peak" changes in PTE areas... it's got a large enough student population so should see the same increases in leisure traffic.

Maybe the underlying reason is that the growth we've seen over the past decade has been disproportionately in the Intercity and Network South East sectors (with relatively flatlining numbers in the "Provincial" sector)? In which case the argument for focussing future infrastructure improvements on things like HS2 and Crossrail becomes stronger?

At least there are improvements on the way for Hull - service to Leeds will be doubled (by Arriva running an hourly service), service to York will be increased to hourly, service up the coast will be increased, electrification of the line towards London is on the horizon... if the figures don't grow over the next decade then I'd be surprised!

 

[Starmill]

Another related reason I think might be fare evasion. Hull does not have gates and although I do not know how often there are manual revenue checks and all of the trains do have guards, it seems to be common practice for people to board there, ignoring the machines an ticket office and only pay if asked to do so.

Furthermore, have you analysed passenger usage figures at Brough?

 

[backontrack]

Those would be reasons for why Hull's railway use was historically behind stations in similar sized towns/ cities in northern England, but don't explain why passenger numbers in Hull have grown by less than 1% a year over the decade.

You could argue that Hull's passenger numbers are below those you'd expect to see in a city with 250,000 in the boundaries/ 500,000 in the urban area because...

...At least there are improvements on the way for Hull - service to Leeds will be doubled (by Arriva running an hourly service), service to York will be increased to hourly, service up the coast will be increased, electrification of the line towards London is on the horizon... if the figures don't grow over the next decade then I'd be surprised!

I agree with your post, tbtc, though I haven't quoted it all because there's not much of a need to. Hull has not seen many improvements except for the creation of Hull Trains. Having just looked at the usage statistics, entries/exits at Hull had actually declined in 2000-1, after Hull Trains started.

As you have stated, Hull can expect major improvements to services in the coming Northern Rail franchise - and provided that these go ahead, I'd be surprised if its usage does not grow.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Another related reason I think might be fare evasion. Hull does not have gates and although I do not know how often there are manual revenue checks and all of the trains do have guards, it seems to be common practice for people to board there, ignoring the machines an ticket office and only pay if asked to do so.

Furthermore, have you analysed passenger usage figures at Brough?

I can't imagine fare evasion having an effect on usage large enough to make much difference.

You make a good point in referring to Brough, which I would expect to have grown, along with Howden.

 

[edwin_m]

I think in the last 20 years or so rail has become more of a sensible choice for commuter/shopping/leisure flows into many of the major cities outside London. There are several reasons including increased traffic congestion, the regeneration of city centres which are most easily accessed by public transport, and the seeming inability of the deregulated bus system to increase its passenger numbers significantly. It can result in significant percentage increases in rail travel, although sometimes the base is low so the actual numbers may not be so impressive.

As noted Hull doesn't have a suburban rail network and probably isn't much of a destination for inward commuting anyway. The nearest major centre is Leeds, but Hull is probably too far away with the train service being infrequent and slow relative to driving, so outward commuting is probably not a huge number either. Because Hull is a city centre in its own right rather than just a suburb, there is likely to be less need to travel to somewhere like Leeds for shopping and leisure.

These factors probably explain (what in the absence of any figures I assume to be...) a fairly low rail trip rate in Hull relative to the population. And because the types of rail flow that have tended to increase in other cities aren't really significant in Hull they may also explaing the low rate of growth.

 

[yorksrob]

Maybe the underlying reason is that the growth we've seen over the past decade has been disproportionately in the Intercity and Network South East sectors (with relatively flatlining numbers in the "Provincial" sector)?

I'm not sure that that's the case. The provincial sector may not have grown as fast as other areas, but I think it's more than 1% over a decade !

I notice that a day return between Hull and Cottingham (the next stop along) is over five pounds which is probably pricing them out of the local market.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I definitely feel Hull would benefit from the sparks effect.

 

[MancMetro]

It would be interesting to see a comparison with Middlesbrough, which is also a largish urban settlement with a modest local railway network and no PTE.

Furthermore, have you analysed passenger usage figures at Brough?

Their figures are:

                  Passengers (mil)
                  2004/05  2014/15  Increase
  Midddlesbrough  1.121    1.351    21%
          Brough  0.291    0.374    29%

So their increases are below the national average, but not as far below as Hull.

I think the posters mentioning reasons behind rail growth not applying to Hull may be onto something.

By the way if anyone wants to relive the good and the bad of what rail travel was like 10-20 years ago, I recommend a visit to Hull. The trains are infrequent, but also quiet and Hull station feels very spacious with none of the passenger scrums that you get at places like Leeds and Manchester Piccadilly.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

It would be interesting to see a comparison with Middlesbrough, which is also a largish urban settlement with a modest local railway network and no PTE.

Another place screaming out for the sparks effect.

 

[backontrack]

Well, Middlesbrough suits the idea of 'screaming out', anyway!

 

[IanXC]

I think there's a few key points mentioned above, particularly in terms of service frequency and the impact of not having ticket gates.

However I would also point to a deterrent effect. Commuting into Hull from the Coast is, and has been for some years, capacity constrained, with a service having been in the Yorkshire and Humber top 10 (last figures I saw were something in excess of 140% to capacity, and continues to operate as 2 cars. Clearly you're not going to attract more passengers when they can see what their (expensive) experience is going to be like!

 

[bluenoxid]

What is the price of car parking like in Hull centre?

 

[yorksrob]

Their figures are:

                  Passengers (mil)
                  2004/05  2014/15  Increase
  Midddlesbrough  1.121    1.351    21%
          Brough  0.291    0.374    29%

So their increases are below the national average, but not as far below as Hull.

I think the posters mentioning reasons behind rail growth not applying to Hull may be onto something.

By the way if anyone wants to relive the good and the bad of what rail travel was like 10-20 years ago, I recommend a visit to Hull. The trains are infrequent, but also quiet and Hull station feels very spacious with none of the passenger scrums that you get at places like Leeds and Manchester Piccadilly.

Many thanks for that.

I notice that there are some much more reasonable fares in the Middlesbrough area (£3.40 return to Nunthorpe for example) so perhaps the train is better priced for the market.

 

[deltic]

Besides the reasons quoted above Hull's economic performance is also a factor - out of the 64 cities tracked by the think tank Centre for Cities, Hull is 60th in job creation over the last ten years - Blackpool which is 62nd has also seen very poor rail performance

 

[mike57]

As others have stated, the fare structure dosnt encourage people from places like Cottingham to use the train:

Anytime return = £5.80 for a 4 mile x 2 journey = 72p per mile

Compare that with:

Bridlington - Hull anytime return £14.80 31 mile x 2 = 23p mile
Leeds - Garforth anytime return £4.60 7.25 mile x 2 = 32p mile

Hull Megarider 7 day bus ticket = £10.50

So train travel doesnt offer good value for money in the Hull area.

Hull is a low wage area for professional people, who would form possible commuters, for someone living in Selby and prepared to commute 30mins ish Leeds will offer a better salary than Hull

Hull has been hard hit by large employer closures over the past 10 years or so

Quite a few people from Hull have started commuting to North Lincolnshire, there are big petrochemical/chemical works as well as some large food processors, no rail link so option is bus or drive.

No PTE to subsidise rail fares

I dont think its any one thing, more like a combination of several things which have each depressed passenger numbers, and have conspired to restrict growth.

I hope there are improvements to services promised by the new Northern franchise, but I am sorry to say that in the case of Hull I dont think there is a big untapped demand, so one could see a situation where the same number of passengers end up being spread over more trains, not what the ToCs will want to see.

My earlier comments on pence per mile raise the question what is the most expensive journey in terms of pence per mile based on a standard class anytime return.

 

[edwin_m]

My earlier comments on pence per mile raise the question what is the most expensive journey in terms of pence per mile based on a standard class anytime return.

Probably Heathrow Express, But that doesn't advance the discussion on here very much!

 

[HowardGWR]

Besides the reasons quoted above Hull's economic performance is also a factor - out of the 64 cities tracked by the think tank Centre for Cities, Hull is 60th in job creation over the last ten years - Blackpool which is 62nd has also seen very poor rail performance

I looked at the web site but failed to find the table. Do you have the link please?

 

[HMS Ark Royal]

Last ticket inspection at Hull was June 15th 2013

 

[backontrack]

Is that last attempted inspection or last successful inspection?

 

[charley_17/7]

ISTR (about 5 years ago) the 'manual' barrier at Hull being a FTPE affair, despite the revenue being (mainly) lost from Northern services.

You would have thought the recent St Stephen's development would have encouraged shopping/leisure travel from other towns, but obviously not.

Lets hope the City of Culture year bring a sustained boost to long-term figures. Didn't Liverpool get a similar boost post-2008?

 

[90019]

Hull is a medium sized dump of 250k people, with a wider region of 500k.

FTFY.

What is the price of car parking like in Hull centre?

Every day, I'm not sure, but for just going every now and again, free if you know where to park.
--- old post above --- --- new post below ---

Lets hope the City of Culture year bring a sustained boost to long-term figures. Didn't Liverpool get a similar boost post-2008?

Liverpool was European City of Culture, which is different to the UK City of Culture.
Since York wasn't even shortlisted, I can only assume it gets awarded to the city that is most in need of some culture.

 

[Bertie the bus]

Over the last ten years British passenger numbers have increased by around 50-60%. Here are the numbers for a few individual stations.

                  Passengers (mil)
                  2004/05  2014/15  Increase
           Leeds  14.734   28.848   96%
       Penistone  0.107    0.160    50%
            Hull  1.961    2.119    8%

Leeds has had very impressive passenger growth which has no doubt been helped by service improvements over that time period. A station like Penistone, which has seen no improvements (still an hourly service with Pacers), has still recorded a 50% increase in that time period.

Leeds hasn't experienced a 96% increase and Penistone hasn't had a 50% increase. A few years ago, about 5 if I recall correctly, PTE issued tickets were included for the first time. All stations within PTE areas had a huge increae in official passenger numbers, just as London stations did when they started to include PAYG Oyster.

So the official figures for Leeds and Penistone are 96% and 50% higher respectively but the number of passengers aren't.

 

[Bevan Price]

No disrespect to Hull and its people, but I think it suffers from having to compete with tourist attractions like York, and the shopping facilities are not able to compete with the likes of Leeds or Meadowhall / Sheffield when people choose to make shopping trips out of their home towns. Plus, the eastern suburbs lost all their stations when Marples/Beeching closed the lines to Withernsea & Hornsea. So - unless Hull can attract lots of new jobs in the city centre, there do not seem huge prospects to attract loads of new commuters.

 

[MancMetro]

Leeds hasn't experienced a 96% increase and Penistone hasn't had a 50% increase. A few years ago, about 5 if I recall correctly, PTE issued tickets were included for the first time. All stations within PTE areas had a huge increae in official passenger numbers, just as London stations did when they started to include PAYG Oyster.

So the official figures for Leeds and Penistone are 96% and 50% higher respectively but the number of passengers aren't.

I didn't know that, thanks for pointing it out. It looks like there is a jump in the numbers from 2007/08 to 2008/09.

Besides the reasons quoted above Hull's economic performance is also a factor - out of the 64 cities tracked by the think tank Centre for Cities, Hull is 60th in job creation over the last ten years - Blackpool which is 62nd has also seen very poor rail performance

That is well spotted, I hadn't noticed Blackpool but now I'm looking at it its growth is 1.664 mil -> 1.758 mil (5.6% increase) which is even worse than for Hull.

As others have said, hopefully the 2017 city of culture year plus Northern Rail service improvements around that time will give Hull a boost.

 

[yorksrob]

No disrespect to Hull and its people, but I think it suffers from having to compete with tourist attractions like York, and the shopping facilities are not able to compete with the likes of Leeds or Meadowhall / Sheffield when people choose to make shopping trips out of their home towns.

Although that should, potentially be a source of railway passengers.

 

[Bevan Price]

Although that should, potentially be a source of railway passengers.

Yes, but to Leeds, Meadowhall from surrounding towns. The fares from Hull to Leeds or Meadowhall are probably considered too expensive to justify more than occasional shopping trips out of Hull, whereas (for example), shoppers from Huddersfield, Castleford, etc. may make several trips per month to Leeds.

 

[ashworth]

Fares to and from Hull are quite high. Hull is in many ways at the end of a long branch line off the ECML from Doncaster and at approx £20 for a return on what many would see as a local journey from Doncaster to Hull. For almost the same price you can travel from Doncaster right across the Pennines to Manchester.

 

[Starmill]

At cheapest return from Hull to Leeds of £21.30 I don't think there's any doubt that it's been overpriced by TransPennine.