HST replacement

[Helvellyn]

Replacement of GWR and XC HST fleets will be dependent on DfT involvement. I wouldn't be surprised if the latter go once the twenty Class 221s arrive from Avanti West Coast, probably with pairs of 4-car Class 220s, displaced by 5-car 221s on individual diagrams.

ScotRail's replacement of HSTs will be dependent on what the Scottish Government wants to see happen (and fund). I'd have thought some bi-mode type units eventually, maybe a variant of the Class 810s being built for EMR.

As far as I am aware there is still no home identified for EMR's Class 222 fleet once the Class 810s arrive. Given they are being reformed to give 23 5-car and 4 7-car units not sure who might be interested in these. Might actually have been suitable for ScotRail, but wouldn't necessarily fit with the Scottish Government's green policies to take another diesel fleet. But it would be too many to replace GWR's 'Castle' HSTs. Unless you get something radical like SWR taking them (regearing then for 100mph operation), with the 159s cascaded to GWR.

 

[quantinghome]

Replacement of GWR and XC HST fleets will be dependent on DfT involvement. I wouldn't be surprised if the latter go once the twenty Class 221s arrive from Avanti West Coast, probably with pairs of 4-car Class 220s, displaced by 5-car 221s on individual diagrams.

ScotRail's replacement of HSTs will be dependent on what the Scottish Government wants to see happen (and fund). I'd have thought some bi-mode type units eventually, maybe a variant of the Class 810s being built for EMR.

As far as I am aware there is still no home identified for EMR's Class 222 fleet once the Class 810s arrive. Given they are being reformed to give 23 5-car and 4 7-car units not sure who might be interested in these. Might actually have been suitable for ScotRail, but wouldn't necessarily fit with the Scottish Government's green policies to take another diesel fleet. But it would be too many to replace GWR's 'Castle' HSTs. Unless you get something radical like SWR taking them (regearing then for 100mph operation), with the 159s cascaded to GWR.

Interesting points, but my response would be straying into speculation. I'll set up a thread in that sub-forum.

 

[TT-ONR-NRN]

Replacement of GWR and XC HST fleets will be dependent on DfT involvement. I wouldn't be surprised if the latter go once the twenty Class 221s arrive from Avanti West Coast.

No. Not “once the twenty Class 221s arrive from Avanti West Coast.” If the twenty Class 221s arrive from Avanti West Coast. Absolutely nothing has been confirmed publicly yet.

 

[cjmillsnun]

Replacement of GWR and XC HST fleets will be dependent on DfT involvement. I wouldn't be surprised if the latter go once the twenty Class 221s arrive from Avanti West Coast, probably with pairs of 4-car Class 220s, displaced by 5-car 221s on individual diagrams.

ScotRail's replacement of HSTs will be dependent on what the Scottish Government wants to see happen (and fund). I'd have thought some bi-mode type units eventually, maybe a variant of the Class 810s being built for EMR.

As far as I am aware there is still no home identified for EMR's Class 222 fleet once the Class 810s arrive. Given they are being reformed to give 23 5-car and 4 7-car units not sure who might be interested in these. Might actually have been suitable for ScotRail, but wouldn't necessarily fit with the Scottish Government's green policies to take another diesel fleet. But it would be too many to replace GWR's 'Castle' HSTs. Unless you get something radical like SWR taking them (regearing then for 100mph operation), with the 159s cascaded to GWR.

That would reduce capacity. A 4 car set has fewer standard seats than a 3 car 159

 

[quantinghome]

Given the discussions underway elsewhere in the light of today's RAIB report, I though I'd start a speculative thread here.

Replacement of GWR and XC HST fleets will be dependent on DfT involvement. I wouldn't be surprised if the latter go once the twenty Class 221s arrive from Avanti West Coast, probably with pairs of 4-car Class 220s, displaced by 5-car 221s on individual diagrams.

ScotRail's replacement of HSTs will be dependent on what the Scottish Government wants to see happen (and fund). I'd have thought some bi-mode type units eventually, maybe a variant of the Class 810s being built for EMR.

As far as I am aware there is still no home identified for EMR's Class 222 fleet once the Class 810s arrive. Given they are being reformed to give 23 5-car and 4 7-car units not sure who might be interested in these. Might actually have been suitable for ScotRail, but wouldn't necessarily fit with the Scottish Government's green policies to take another diesel fleet. But it would be too many to replace GWR's 'Castle' HSTs. Unless you get something radical like SWR taking them (regearing then for 100mph operation), with the 159s cascaded to GWR.

Yes, the Class 22Xs will doubtless feature somewhere.

Given the linespeeds on the routes covered by GW and Scotrail HSTs, Class 755s may also be an option, plus they are 'knitting-ready'.

 

[JonathanH]

Given the linespeeds on the routes covered by GW and Scotrail HSTs, Class 755s may also be an option, plus they are 'knitting-ready'.

Discussed many times - it just isn't going to be new build at this stage - the easiest way to displace GW HSTs is to use units already in the GW fleet to cascade the HSTs out, possibly with an influx of 150s or 158s from elsewhere when they become available.

Scotrail is a little more complex.

Yes, the Class 22Xs will doubtless feature somewhere.

Probably five for XC to remove the HSTs if they can't simply cope with a reduced fleet and timetable. It really wouldn't surprise me if the DfT mandated XC cope with its existing fleets and continued operation of the current timetable.

The rest are unlikely to feature anywhere on a leaner railway looking to cut costs.

 

[MattRat]

Discussed many times - it just isn't going to be new build at this stage - the easiest way to displace GW HSTs is to use units already in the GW fleet to cascade the HSTs out, possibly with an influx of 150s or 158s from elsewhere when they become available.

Scotrail is a little more complex.

Probably five for XC to remove the HSTs if they can't simply cope with a reduced fleet and timetable. It really wouldn't surprise me if the DfT mandated XC cope with its existing fleets and continued operation of the current timetable.

The rest are unlikely to feature anywhere on a leaner railway looking to cut costs.

While TFW will, as far as I'm aware, get rid of all Sprinters and the 175s once the 197s come into service, they will likely be used to remove 150s and 153s from the network if possible.

If XC don't take all the 22x trains, it might be possible to replace GWR HSTs with them, with tilt removed and maybe a gearbox change to give them faster acceleration. Then those HSTs would go to Scotland to bulk up their own HST fleet, as they often have shortages.

 

[irish_rail]

While TFW will, as far as I'm aware, get rid of all Sprinters and the 175s once the 197s come into service, they will likely be used to remove 150s and 153s from the network if possible.

If XC don't take all the 22x trains, it might be possible to replace GWR HSTs with them, with tilt removed and maybe a gearbox change to give them faster acceleration. Then those HSTs would go to Scotland to bulk up their own HST fleet, as they often have shortages.

And yet the HST fleet is better suited to GWR than Scotlrail, though we are in the ridiculous situation where Scotlands Premier trains will continue to be worked by nearly 50 year old trains , whilst the secondary services to the south west will get say 22x, total overkill for the services.

 

[MattRat]

And yet the HST fleet is better suited to GWR than Scotlrail, though we are in the ridiculous situation where Scotlands Premier trains will continue to be worked by nearly 50 year old trains , whilst the secondary services to the south west will get say 22x, total overkill for the services.

It's to do with fleet sizes. As far as I'm aware, the GWR fleet is smaller, so easier to replace. There might not even be enough 22x to replace the ScotRail trains. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

 

[JonathanH]

As far as I'm aware, the GWR fleet is smaller, so easier to replace.

Yes, which is why it seems likely to be done by reallocation of resources within GWR's existing fleet. No 22x needed at all.

There might not even be enough 22x to replace the ScotRail trains.

25 HST sets replaced by 27 222s could be regarded an 'ideal fit' but it is very unlikely to happen.

Much discussion has concluded that there is no ideal use on the British railway for the spare 22x fleets.

 

[Fyldeboy]

I'm sure in an ideal world, all HSTs would be retired asap, but with the post-covid financial situation, I suspect they will all have to hang on for some time yet. However, are figures available for the different fleets day-to-day reliability, and if so, reasons for the differences?

 

[Towers]

I'm sure in an ideal world, all HSTs would be retired asap, but with the post-covid financial situation, I suspect they will all have to hang on for some time yet. However, are figures available for the different fleets day-to-day reliability, and if so, reasons for the differences?

Rather the opposite it seems; the DfT are not at all keen on the operating costs of HSTs, particularly for GWR local duties in "Castle Class" form. It's the post-Covid landscape of both cash and passengers being scarse that is driving a desire to get them replaced, likely sooner than might previously have been anticipated.

 

[py_megapixel]

No. Not “once the twenty Class 221s arrive from Avanti West Coast.” If the twenty Class 221s arrive from Avanti West Coast. Absolutely nothing has been confirmed publicly yet.

I think @Helvellyn must have been referring to them arriving "back" from Avanti, the suggestion being that the DfT will want to send them immediately to XC as soon as that happens, which does sound plausible given the circumstances (though by no means certain)

That would reduce capacity. A 4 car set has fewer standard seats than a 3 car 159

Are you talking about a 4 car HST set or a 4 car Voyager?

 

[Irascible]

Probably five for XC to remove the HSTs if they can't simply cope with a reduced fleet and timetable. It really wouldn't surprise me if the DfT mandated XC cope with its existing fleets and continued operation of the current timetable.

So take away GWR's HSTs and at the same time possibly cut XC ( who provide a lot of services over the same route ) - on a route which has very little commuter activity. Good feels down this way...

--

Would hope GWR at least gets a load of decent quality 158s from somewhere. Can't seriously be looking at replacing HSTs with 150s, especially 3 years after replacing 150s with HSTs.

 

[MattRat]

Yes, which is why it seems likely to be done by reallocation of resources within GWR's existing fleet. No 22x needed at all.

25 HST sets replaced by 27 222s could be regarded an 'ideal fit' but it is very unlikely to happen.

Much discussion has concluded that there is no ideal use on the British railway for the spare 22x fleets.

GWR will want to replace any 150s and 153s first, and there are a lot of other places that want to do that too. Once that's done, then we can look at what's left over.

If you think ScotRail are more deserving of the 22x and it can actually be done, I don't see a problem keeping the GWR HSTs for a little while longer instead. They are at least a little more reliable.

 

[JonathanH]

GWR will want to replace any 150s and 153s first, and there are a lot of other places that want to do that too. Once that's done, then we can look at what's left over.

GWR's 153s went ages ago. The 150s are the only traction suitable for some of their routes. The DfT want GWR to remove their HSTs as quickly as possible because they are expensive. It is a fairly safe assumption that 150s will still be operating when the HSTs have gone.

If you think ScotRail are more deserving of the 22x and it can actually be done, I don't see a problem keeping the GWR HSTs for a little while longer instead. They are at least a little more reliable.

No one is 'deserving' of the 22x. No one wants them as they aren't suitable for any routes other than the ones they operate. It isn't a case of GWR vs Scotrail. The DfT wants to reduce the cost of the English railway and the HSTs are expensive to operate. What happens in Scotland is up to Transport Scotland.

 

[MattRat]

GWR's 153s went ages ago. The 150s are the only traction suitable for some of their routes. The DfT want GWR to remove their HSTs as quickly as possible because they are expensive. It is a fairly safe assumption that 150s will still be operating when the HSTs have gone.

No one is 'deserving' of the 22x. No one wants them as they aren't suitable for any routes other than the ones they operate. It isn't a case of GWR vs Scotrail. The DfT wants to reduce the cost of the English railway and the HSTs are expensive to operate. What happens in Scotland is up to Transport Scotland.

I think they'd still want to replace 150s if they could. But as you said I guess it depends on cost. HSTs being the most expensive, then it's whether it's cheaper to use 22x in place of HSTs, or cheaper to use say, 158s but keep 150s.

For Scotland, what do you think they want? Would they take 22x if offered, or do you think they're thinking of another solution, which I guess is likely due to their relatively greener policies.

 

[tomuk]

I think they'd still want to replace 150s if they could. But as you said I guess it depends on cost. HSTs being the most expensive, then it's whether it's cheaper to use 22x in place of HSTs, or cheaper to use say, 158s but keep 150s.

22x would likely be even more expensive then HST and that's before you factor in any modification costs. GWR need some more DMUs 158/170 or maybe 175s.

For Scotland, what do you think they want? Would they take 22x if offered, or do you think they're thinking of another solution, which I guess is likely due to their relatively greener policies.

What effect does Scotland's greener policies have on using 22x? I suppose you could argue that they chose HSTs as a short/medium term option because future electrification would replace some of them.

 

[MattRat]

22x would likely be even more expensive then HST and that's before you factor in any modification costs. GWR need some more DMUs 158/170 or maybe 175s.

What effect does Scotland's greener policies have on using 22x? I suppose you could argue that they chose HSTs as a short/medium term option because future electrification would replace some of them.

Presumably there's something else in the mix. Otherwise why does XC use 22x and not just HSTs.

You have probably hit the nail on the head for Scotland though. I'd be curious on what electric stock they'd run though.

 

[XAM2175]

For Scotland, what do you think they want? Would they take 22x if offered, or do you think they're thinking of another solution, which I guess is likely due to their relatively greener policies.

The intent, having spent the money on introducing the HSTs, was to keep them in service* until a suitable lower-carbon replacement is introduced later this decade.

(* = you may choose to read this as "run them into the ground")

You have probably hit the nail on the head for Scotland though. I'd be curious on what electric stock they'd run though.

It hasn't even been tendered for yet. The exact nature of that replacement will depend on the progress of the wire-stringing north of Edinburgh and Stirling, but you can safely assume it's going to include a pantograph and a bunch of batteries.

With regards to the various 22x fleets, and leaving the sunk cost of the HST programme aside, previous discussion here on the topic of sending the Voyagers north of the Forth has generally settled on the consensus that they would be woefully unsuitable in a number of ways: for a start they immediately lose points for having underfloor engines, then they lose more for devoting so much floor space to PRM lavatories, and then yet more for having the tilt-capable body profile. Plus, if they're 221s, then they're also hauling around tonnes of extra tilt-capable bogie that serves no purpose unless a fortune is spent on clearing the Highland Main Line for tilting operation.

Meridians are obviously not quite the same, but the basic points remain unchanged. Once you account for the interior refurbishment they dearly need, we've spent another fortune on a new stop-gap to replace the old stop-gap.

That was the situation before the Carmont report was published, anyway. Without knowing exactly how big a political issue it will or won't become, it's impossible to speculate further - but if it does come to be that SR HST retirement is brought forward, my money is on the future fleet being brought forward with it in preference to yet another DMU cascade. Certainly, as a Scottish taxpayer, I have no desire to spend even a single penny on trying to make the 22x units fit in up here simply because a handful of foamers feel that it's necessary to find a home for every single tiny fleet regardless of suitability.

Otherwise why does XC use 22x and not just HSTs.

Because they didn't want to use HSTs????

Remember that XC bought the Voyagers when they were a Virgin franchise alongside IC West Coast, so they were getting flash new trains that were going to be an improvement over the HSTs, all wrapped up as one big happy family next to the Pendolinos that were replacing 87s and Mk 3 rakes. Now, though, the value proposition is different because the HSTs have been refurbished and re-engined and made PRM-compliant at significant cost, whereas the 22x units are going to need yet more money spent on them if they're to be brought up to scratch for a serious cascade (and this is especially the case for XC's thoroughly decrepit Voyagers).

 

[Speed43125]

Are you talking about a 4 car HST set or a 4 car Voyager?

4 car 22x almost certainly

 

[JonathanH]

I think they'd still want to replace 150s if they could. But as you said I guess it depends on cost. HSTs being the most expensive, then it's whether it's cheaper to use 22x in place of HSTs, or cheaper to use say, 158s but keep 150s.

The priority now is to remove HSTs from the GWR fleet, not 150s. The 150s are needed for the Cornish branches, especially Looe and Gunnislake, and other services in the South West. If there had been enough 158s in the first place, the short HSTs wouldn't have happened.

Introducing 22x to the GWR franchise comes with some of the same high operational costs as running HSTs. They would be totally inappropriate as HST replacement. Paradoxically it looks like 800s and 802s will be released from other services to do some of the HST replacement while the rest will go due to a 769 > 165 > 166 > 158 cascade, assuming the 769s can be made to work.

 

[cjmillsnun]

4 car 22x almost certainly

Indeed.

 

[47827]

Replacement of GWR and XC HST fleets will be dependent on DfT involvement. I wouldn't be surprised if the latter go once the twenty Class 221s arrive from Avanti West Coast, probably with pairs of 4-car Class 220s, displaced by 5-car 221s on individual diagrams.

ScotRail's replacement of HSTs will be dependent on what the Scottish Government wants to see happen (and fund). I'd have thought some bi-mode type units eventually, maybe a variant of the Class 810s being built for EMR.

As far as I am aware there is still no home identified for EMR's Class 222 fleet once the Class 810s arrive. Given they are being reformed to give 23 5-car and 4 7-car units not sure who might be interested in these. Might actually have been suitable for ScotRail, but wouldn't necessarily fit with the Scottish Government's green policies to take another diesel fleet. But it would be too many to replace GWR's 'Castle' HSTs. Unless you get something radical like SWR taking them (regearing then for 100mph operation), with the 159s cascaded to GWR.

Scotland will potentially be the last hst home and XC potentially the first to get rid. The main obstacles in Scotland to getting rid of them quickly will be crew training on replacement trains, followed by needing something IC standard, or that can be passed off as such at least.

 

[MattRat]

Scotland will potentially be the last hst home and XC potentially the first to get rid. The main obstacles in Scotland to getting rid of them quickly will be crew training on replacement trains, followed by needing something IC standard, or that can be passed off as such at least.

If only they had full electrification. 350/2s might have worked.

 

[Wynd]

Speculatively, my money (based on zero evidence or fact) is that SR opt for 385's or similar when the time comes.

If we are lucky they may even have a carpet and soft seats for those of us in Inverness/Aberdeen who have 2+ hour journeys.

Now, if it were my call I would "drag" us back to Loco Hauled so that SR could (no laughing at the back) add coaches for match days (Round and Egg ball's).

Voyagers are not coming here. They are by far and away the worst thing running on the network today. Loud, badly ventilated, filthy, smelly, noisy, loud, just all round sub par.

 

[MattRat]

So I just stumbled across something. Apparently Porterbrook are considering putting batteries in their 350s. Would this fit Scotland's needs?

 

[class 9]

No. Not “once the twenty Class 221s arrive from Avanti West Coast.” If the twenty Class 221s arrive from Avanti West Coast. Absolutely nothing has been confirmed publicly yet.

Apparently XC have put a bid in for the Avanti 221s, the decision will be entirely with the DfT, so who knows????

 

[Wyrleybart]

Rather the opposite it seems; the DfT are not at all keen on the operating costs of HSTs, particularly for GWR local duties in "Castle Class" form. It's the post-Covid landscape of both cash and passengers being scarse that is driving a desire to get them replaced, likely sooner than might previously have been anticipated.

If that is the case then why did DfT authorise the expenditure to the GWR franchise to take them on ? Presumably also, GWR will be paying a higher leasing charge on them.
Logic suggests they should have acquired new Hitachi AT200 platform multiple units - probably a huge benefit of staff training and maintenance inventory.

 

[quantinghome]

Now, though, the value proposition is different because the HSTs have been refurbished and re-engined and made PRM-compliant at significant cost, whereas the 22x units are going to need yet more money spent on them if they're to be brought up to scratch for a serious cascade (and this is especially the case for XC's thoroughly decrepit Voyagers).

But tilting the scales back the other way is the need to consider further 'reasonably practicable' steps to improve the crashworthiness of HSTs, and withdrawal is explicitly mentioned as an option in the RAIB report on the Stonehaven derailment.

So I just stumbled across something. Apparently Porterbrook are considering putting batteries in their 350s. Would this fit Scotland's needs?

Not enoogh range for intercity routes, surely?