Not a valid argument. The weather has been increasingly unpredictable and more intense in recent years compared to when the HSTs were new and also back then there wasn’t the current level of trees and vegetation posing a threat to the railway. The risk is far higher now than it ever was before, notwithstanding the deteriorating condition of the bodywork strength etc due to the HST age.
Your post shows that the points I made in my post
#43 above have not been understood as well as considerations of the ageing of structures.
Railway safety is best analysed under two headings - active and passive.
Active safety covers all those things which traditionally have made rail one of the safest forms of transport — signalling, track and infrastructure integrity and safety critical items on the train such as the efficiency of the braking system, wheel profiles and suspensions and so on. Passive safety covers those features in the rolling stock which protect those in the train if the active safety fails.
That a tree has fallen across the line is a failure of active safety — not that of the train.
That the tree penetrated the cab is very disturbing as the result could have been the serious injury or death of the driver. However it is not certain that a cab designed and built to meet the current requirements for vehicle safety laid down in the standard
EN 15227:2020 Railway applications — Crashworthiness requirements for railway vehicle bodies would have performed differently as this scenario is not listed as one of the most likely events against which the designs are to be tested.
The HST cab is manufactured from glass fibres embedded in an epoxy resin. It is not a plastic which commonly contain plasticisers to promote flexibility and which evaporate over a period of time leaving the base material brittle. Fibreglass is known for its durability which is attributed to several key characteristics:
- it is resistant to corrosion, making it suitable for use in environments exposed to chemicals and saltwater
- it does not absorb moisture[1], preventing issues like rotting or warping
- it possesses high tensile strength, enabling it to withstand significant mechanical stresses without breaking.
There is no evidence that the age of the train had anything to do with the outcome.
The cab failed as the pillars to each side of the windscreen broke under the impact. Even if these pillars had been made of steel that does not mean that the cab would not have been penetrated or the pillars not distorted to a dangerous extent.
This thread follows the RailUK Forums model of generating storms in teacups. Which why we love it!!
[1] If not properly protected this can occur in boat hulls which are permanently immersed in water. One the other hand there are plenty of boat and ships hulls which are more than half a century old and are still in excellent condition although exposed to the aggressive conditions seen at sea - salt, water, heat, cold and ultra-violet light.