HS2 service if Phase 2 is scrapped

[London Trains]

I would like to hear your ideas for what the HS2 service pattern would be if Phase 2 was scrapped and HS2 was only built to Handsacre Junction. Here are my ideas.

Services from Euston:

4tph Birmingham Curzon St (OOC, Bham Intl)

2tph Manchester Piccadilly (OOC, Bham Intl, Stoke, Macclesfield, Stockport)

2tph Manchester Piccadilly (OOC, Bham Intl, Crewe, Wilmslow, Stockport)

2tph Liverpool Lime Street (OOC, Bham Intl, Stafford, Crewe, Runcorn)

2tph Blackpool North (OOC, Bham Intl, Crewe, Warrington, Wigan, Preston, Kirkham, Poulton)

1tph Glasgow (OOC, Bham Intl, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle, Motherwell)

1tph Edinburgh (OOC, Bham Intl, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle, Haymarket)

Services from Birmingham:

2tph Manchester Piccadilly (Stoke, Macclesfield, Stockport)

2tph Liverpool Lime Street (Stafford, Crewe, Winsford, Hartford, Runcorn, Liverpool South Parkway)

1tph Glasgow (Crewe, Warrington, Wigan, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle, Motherwell)

1tph Edinburgh (Crewe, Warrington, Wigan, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle, Haymarket)

 

[JonathanH]

Don't you think the service for Phase 1 will just be perpetuated?

For a start there wont be capacity for as many trains as you envisage into Manchester Picadilly because there won't be capacity to increase the service over the current level. Moreover, you would still need to accommodate some level of 'classic' service.

In fact, the problem if you don't build HS2 in full is that there isn't really capacity to increase the total number of services out of Euston since the 'classic' part of the network is running at capacity.

Therefore, any speculation about an increase or concentration of new services on the initial routes is a bit futile.

3tph Birmingham, 1tph Manchester, 1tph Liverpool, 1tph Glasgow is the 2029-2031 service in the business case.

 

[The Planner]

I would like to hear your ideas for what the HS2 service pattern would be if Phase 2 was scrapped and HS2 was only built to Handsacre Junction. Here are my ideas.

Services from Euston:

4tph Birmingham Curzon St (OOC, Bham Intl)

2tph Manchester Piccadilly (OOC, Bham Intl, Stoke, Macclesfield, Stockport)

2tph Manchester Piccadilly (OOC, Bham Intl, Crewe, Wilmslow, Stockport)

2tph Liverpool Lime Street (OOC, Bham Intl, Stafford, Crewe, Runcorn)

2tph Blackpool North (OOC, Bham Intl, Crewe, Warrington, Wigan, Preston, Kirkham, Poulton)

1tph Glasgow (OOC, Bham Intl, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle, Motherwell)

1tph Edinburgh (OOC, Bham Intl, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle, Haymarket)

Services from Birmingham:

2tph Manchester Piccadilly (Stoke, Macclesfield, Stockport)

2tph Liverpool Lime Street (Stafford, Crewe, Winsford, Hartford, Runcorn, Liverpool South Parkway)

1tph Glasgow (Crewe, Warrington, Wigan, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle, Motherwell)

1tph Edinburgh (Crewe, Warrington, Wigan, Preston, Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle, Haymarket)

So by my reckoning that is 16tph through Colwich?

 

[si404]

3tph Birmingham, 1tph Manchester, 1tph Liverpool, 1tph Glasgow is the 2029-2031 service in the business case.

That's the terminate at OOC service. When Euston opens it becomes 3tph Birmingham, 3tph Manchester, 2tph Liverpool, 1tph Lancaster, 1tph Glasgow.

Though, of course, they want phase 2a running when Euston opens at the very latest. And phase 2a is clearly a different kettle of fish to the rest of phase 2 - a scheme they were going to build on the WCML tweaked to integrate it with HS2. That gives a Macclesfield train, as well as having the Lancaster join to a Liverpool at Crewe.

 

[Senex]

So by my reckoning that is 16tph through Colwich?

Those abandoned plans for a flyover would have to be dusted down very quickly indeed!

 

[JonathanH]

Those abandoned plans for a flyover would have to be dusted down very quickly indeed!

...and then work would have to be done at Stockport, Manchester Piccadilly and Crewe and probably other places to accommodate the OP's service ideas.

 

[London Trains]

Potentially the section between Handsacre and Crewe would need to be built for my plan to work. That solves the problem of Colwich.

The only other problem I foresee with my plan is the pathing of 4tph to Piccadilly. However with it becoming a clockface timetable fitting in with other services (3tph does not fit with 2tph, but 4tph does), a redo of the timetable in that area should solve the problem. The Castlefield corridor needs timetable changes anyway, may as well do the whole job.

 

[cle]

"Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle"

do not need 2tph to London! Assuming they'd also have classic services to London and Brum, albeit much slower. Alternate them, HS2 does not need to cater to intra-Lancs/Cumbria journeys. Existing trains do that.


My one thoughts about if Phase 2 never happened, is that would it be worth to explore an interim station where is crosses EWR, as a Bucks/Ox P&R, interchange and potentially new town development. Capacity is not there as planned today, but with lesser frequency, this might be worth looking at again.

Full high speed passing station (4 tracks, long, high speed loops/turnouts) - with links into all the EWR services.

 

[Bald Rick]

a redo of the timetable in that area should solve the problem.

Of course! I only wish someone in the industry had thought of redoing the timetable in the area to solve the problem, it’s simple now you say it.

 

[si404]

My one thoughts about if Phase 2 never happened, is that would it be worth to explore an interim station where is crosses EWR, as a Bucks/Ox P&R, interchange and potentially new town development

Big issue is that it would be controversial, given it opens up the area to serious development* - the E-W Expressway is opposed in the area not just because it's a road, but because it unlocks land for large-scale house building along it. E-W Rail only having a station at Winslow is partially about avoiding that objection (but also partially about cost and journey time).

*the National Infrastructure Committee proposed a new city similar in scale to Milton Keynes at such a station, and a large new town (as will happen at Tempsford), would be pretty much impossible to block.

 

[Ianno87]

Potentially the section between Handsacre and Crewe would need to be built for my plan to work. That solves the problem of Colwich.

The only other problem I foresee with my plan is the pathing of 4tph to Piccadilly. However with it becoming a clockface timetable fitting in with other services (3tph does not fit with 2tph, but 4tph does), a redo of the timetable in that area should solve the problem. The Castlefield corridor needs timetable changes anyway, may as well do the whole job.

3tph works on 2 platforms at Piccadilly, but 4tph will almost certainly push that to 3 unless there's some hefty luck on your side.

 

[JonathanH]

3tph works on 2 platforms at Piccadilly, but 4tph will almost certainly push that to 3 unless there's some hefty luck on your side.

The OP was suggesting 6tph at Piccadilly, 4tph from London, 2tph from Birmingham - with presumably no link from Wolverhampton or Stafford. Presumably it would be possible in their thinking to link the London and Birmingham services to reduce platform occupation. Not sure how the local trains to Stoke would fit in.

 

[London Trains]

"Lancaster, Oxenholme, Penrith, Carlisle"

do not need 2tph to London! Assuming they'd also have classic services to London and Brum, albeit much slower. Alternate them, HS2 does not need to cater to intra-Lancs/Cumbria journeys.

I would argue that Lancaster and Carlisle do need 2tph to London. Oxenholme and Penrith could be reduced to 1tph each, with the TPE calling at both to link them up.

 

[London Trains]

The OP was suggesting 6tph at Piccadilly, 4tph from London, 2tph from Birmingham - with presumably no link from Wolverhampton or Stafford. Presumably it would be possible in their thinking to link the London and Birmingham services to reduce platform occupation. Not sure how the local trains to Stoke would fit in.

At Manchester Piccadilly I would have everything have a roughly 25m turnaround so 6tph could fit into 3 platforms.

The London via Stoke and Birmingham services would run 5 mins apart to enable the slow service to run behind in the 25m gap between services. London to Manchester would still have a clockface 15m service.

Wolverhampton and Stafford would be linked via a simple change at Stoke. The Birmingham to Liverpool services will run to Crewe via Stoke, and the Winsford and Hartford stops will be covered by the Birmingham to Liverpool HS2 service. Wolverhampton would be linked to Liverpool by a change at Stafford. Birmingham to Crewe via Stoke, the Avanti Scotland via Brum and the 2tph XC from Birmingham to Manchester will all be binned off, freeing paths between Birmingham and Wolverhampton.

 

[JonathanH]

Wolverhampton and Stafford would be linked via a simple change at Stoke. The Birmingham to Liverpool services will run to Crewe via Stoke, and the Winsford and Hartford stops will be covered by the Birmingham to Liverpool HS2 service. Wolverhampton would be linked to Liverpool by a change at Stafford. Birmingham to Crewe via Stoke, the Avanti Scotland via Brum and the 2tph XC from Birmingham to Manchester will all be binned off, freeing paths between Birmingham and Wolverhampton.

Sounds like you might have some congestion at Stoke then too.

 

[London Trains]

Sounds like you might have some congestion at Stoke then too.

Its not too much different to now. The HS2 services directly replace the Avanti and XC services, the LNWR and Northern services double, and the EMR may as well terminate at Stoke in a new bay platform.

It's an increase of 2tph between Colwich and Stone, 1tph between Stoke and Manchester (Northern), 1tph between Stoke and Stone, a reduction of 1tph between Stone and Stafford and no change between Kidsgrove and Crewe (cant really add services here due to the single line). I really dont think there will be congestion.

 

[The Planner]

At Manchester Piccadilly I would have everything have a roughly 25m turnaround so 6tph could fit into 3 platforms.

So that leaves a 5 minute re-occupation between services every hour all day? Won't take long to fall over.

the Winsford and Hartford stops will be covered by the Birmingham to Liverpool HS2 service.

Really? HS2 stopping at those shacks? We'll ignore the platform lengths at Winsford.

Its not too much different to now. The HS2 services directly replace the Avanti and XC services, the LNWR and Northern services double, and the EMR may as well terminate at Stoke in a new bay platform.

It's an increase of 2tph between Colwich and Stone, 1tph between Stoke and Manchester (Northern), 1tph between Stoke and Stone, a reduction of 1tph between Stone and Stafford and no change between Kidsgrove and Crewe (cant really add services here due to the single line). I really dont think there will be congestion.

So anyone from East of Stoke now has to change to get to Crewe?

 

[London Trains]

So that leaves a 5 minute re-occupation between services every hour all day? Won't take long to fall over.

If a 5 minute reoccupation is too short, simply reduce turnarounds to 20m.

Really? HS2 stopping at those shacks? We'll ignore the platform lengths at Winsford.

SDO or platform extensions...

So anyone from East of Stoke now has to change to get to Crewe?

Yes. An hourly, 1/2/3 car DMU does not need to run to Crewe. Have the 4/8 car EMU service run half hourly to Crewe and have the tiny minority travelling from the EMR service to Crewe change at Stoke, with a decent connection provided.

 

[Ianno87]

At Manchester Piccadilly I would have everything have a roughly 25m turnaround so 6tph could fit into 3 platforms.

That would be a remarkable stroke of luck if it did work out that conveniently, considering the turnround time at the other end of the route, plus the various pathing and flat junctions along the way, and differences in stopping patterms etc etc

 

[Bald Rick]

That would be a remarkable stroke of luck if it did work out that conveniently, considering the turnround time at the other end of the route, plus the various pathing and flat junctions along the way, and differences in stopping patterms etc etc

Smart timetabling. It’s the future.

 

[Bevan Price]

So by my reckoning that is 16tph through Colwich?

And 12 fast tph through Crewe, in addition to all the other services trying to get through there (South Wales/Manchester, Chester & North Wales, Stoke line, local to Manchester line - plus a few freights. Probably unworkable timetables.....

 

[LOL The Irony]

2tph Manchester Piccadilly (OOC, Bham Intl, Crewe, Wilmslow, Stockport)

I somehow don't see that one happening.

 

[Gareth]

Is that not the plan for Phase 2a? Indeed, are not all of Manchester's 3tph to go via Crewe?

 

[cle]

I would argue that Lancaster and Carlisle do need 2tph to London. Oxenholme and Penrith could be reduced to 1tph each, with the TPE calling at both to link them up.

With legacy Birmingham and Manchester services (plus some to Liverpool) - and maybe even a milk-run on the WCML to London? I don't think so.

HS2 should be competing with flights to Scotland, which don't stop. Carlisle and Lancaster are not important enough for all Scotland trains to call, twice an hour.

Is that not the plan for Phase 2a? Indeed, are not all of Manchester's 3tph to go via Crewe?

Yes. I think the Wilmslow part (and also 2tph via Macclesfield) were the issue - i.e. the classic lines and as ever, Stockport (and Viaduct). An increase on today.

The Phase 2a 3tph would be on dedicated HSR into Manchester from Crewe.

 

[si404]

Is that not the plan for Phase 2a? Indeed, are not all of Manchester's 3tph to go via Crewe?

It's the phase 1 plan too, AFAICS, albeit going via Stafford as well as Crewe. No HS2 train is stopping at Stoke unless phase 2a is built.

The Phase 2a 3tph would be on dedicated HSR into Manchester from Crewe.

Crewe-Manchester is part of phase 2b.

 

[HSTEd]

If Phase 1 is the end of the scheme, you could still do some interesting things by joining trains to Birmingham to various Birmingham terminating services.

I don't think there is much chance of Phase 1 being left partly filled...

 

[cle]

It's the phase 1 plan too, AFAICS, albeit going via Stafford as well as Crewe. No HS2 train is stopping at Stoke unless phase 2a is built.
Crewe-Manchester is part of phase 2b.

Ahh, yes correct, my bad.

 

[Chester1]

With legacy Birmingham and Manchester services (plus some to Liverpool) - and maybe even a milk-run on the WCML to London? I don't think so.

HS2 should be competing with flights to Scotland, which don't stop. Carlisle and Lancaster are not important enough for all Scotland trains to call, twice an hour.



Yes. I think the Wilmslow part (and also 2tph via Macclesfield) were the issue - i.e. the classic lines and as ever, Stockport (and Viaduct). An increase on today.

The Phase 2a 3tph would be on dedicated HSR into Manchester from Crewe.

Ahh, yes correct, my bad.

Crewe station and the track layout will be remodeled in time for HS2 phase 2a which should improve capacity between Crewe and Manchester.

Its unlikely Manchester will have 3tph on HS2 from 2028 opening. Old Oak Common will not have sufficient capacity for all the phase 1 and 2a services. Its likely at least one WCML Pendolino Manchester - Euston service will be needed until Euston HS2 opens in 2031.

 

[John Hunt]

Crewe station and the track layout will be remodeled in time for HS2 phase 2a which should improve capacity between Crewe and Manchester.

That is going to be a job-and-a-half!

 

[The Planner]

Crewe station and the track layout will be remodeled in time for HS2 phase 2a which should improve capacity between Crewe and Manchester.

Its unlikely Manchester will have 3tph on HS2 from 2028 opening. Old Oak Common will not have sufficient capacity for all the phase 1 and 2a services. Its likely at least one WCML Pendolino Manchester - Euston service will be needed until Euston HS2 opens in 2031.

It doesn't really do anything at all for Crewe Manchester apart from making Crewe North a bit easier to deal with, it is more to facilitate HS2 landing there, as well as resignalling all the life expired stuff.

That is going to be a job-and-a-half!

Just a bit... starts 2022/3.