HS2 potentially not cancelled?

[Russ_H]

A posting has recently appeared (this morning) on the Guido Fawkes politics website about the possible unscrapping of the previously scrapped route to Crewe.

I do not think there is another thread about this, and I leave it to more knowledgeable posters to discuss the matter.

https://order-order.com/2024/10/17/labour-un-scraps-hs2s-northern-leg/

Labour is set to announce the re-extension of HS2 to Crewe. There goes another Sunak legacy…

The West Midlands to Crewe route was “part A” of HS2’s Phase 2, which Sunak scrapped at Tory Party Conference in 2023. Will Labour cancel the £36 billion of extra transport investment that Sunak initiated in its place?

Labour ministers have “re-evaluated the cost-benefit of HS2” and come to the decision that it should go past Birmingham after all. A formal announcement is pencilled in for the New Year. Phase 2a already has parliamentary approval – LBC says construction will be handed over to a private consortium. Another black hole has just opened up…

 

[DarloRich]

first noted on LBC @0740: https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/hs2-london-euston-to-crewe-labour/

Troubled HS2 rail line will run from London Euston to Crewe, LBC understands

PS - stay away from whopper websites. You will get a biased view of the world.

 

[John Webb]

See item under Infrastucture section: https://www.railforums.co.uk/thread...e-could-pay-for-itself-analysis-finds.275178/

 

[mpthomson]

first noted on LBC @0740: https://www.lbc.co.uk/news/hs2-london-euston-to-crewe-labour/



PS - stay away from whopper websites. You will get a biased view of the world.

All websites like this are biased one way or the other. As long as the particular bias is understood and you get information from a range of viewpoints then all is good.

 

[InTheEastMids]

unscrapping

Like this - I had independently come to the conclusion that English needs new words to help describe progress on major infrastructure projects

 

[DelW]

The Sunak "plan" (if you can call it that) to end it near Lichfield never made any sense at all. It would have largely wasted the money spent so far. Crewe is about the minimum extension needed to make something useful out of what's been built so far.

Hopefully that's now been realised. If Sunak had spoken to transport professionals instead of a couple of cronies it would have been realised earlier.

 

[DarloRich]

All websites like this are biased one way or the other. As long as the particular bias is understood and you get information from a range of viewpoints then all is good.

the problem is many people DONT understand the bias or don't want to understand the bias. I stick to sensible media outlets and avoid "new" media outlets of all colours. Anyway O/T.

 

[sh24]

Welcome news if true, and hopefully safeguarding in place for future phases too.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

The Sunak "plan" (if you can call it that) to end it near Lichfield never made any sense at all. It would have largely wasted the money spent so far. Crewe is about the minimum extension needed to make something useful out of what's been built so far.

Hopefully that's now been realised. If Sunak had spoken to transport professionals instead of a couple of cronies it would have been realised earlier.

Read Ian Dunt’s recent book on Westminster, how it works and why it doesn’t. Politics and government is 100% about short term political survival and 0% about the real world, actually governing or doing the right thing for the country. The mismanagement of HS2 is an excellent illustration of it. TBH sometimes I’m astonished we actually function as a nation at all.

 

[InTheEastMids]

Read Ian Dunt’s recent book on Westminster, how it works and why it doesn’t. Politics and government is 100% about short term political survival and 0% about the real world, actually governing or doing the right thing for the country. The mismanagement of HS2 is an excellent illustration of it. TBH sometimes I’m astonished we actually function as a nation at all.

Good point, so now the short-term need is to evidence that new Govt are "fixing the UK's creaking infrastructure".

Anyway, what this means is that, assuming Euston &/or 2a get rereinstated, then Govt will be looking to have contracts let and "shovels in the ground" asap, to show progress to the electorate and defray the risk that some future Govt derereinstates it. This is not a good way to run large-scale infrastructure investment, but is probably the price you have to pay for having a lot of different constituencies of opinion i.e.
1. "Build Nothing" - "I don't want my taxes to go up to pay for something that I won't personally use on a daily basis"
2. "Build Nothing" - "How can you even countenance investing in this thing when there is <some other thing> that deserves the money more?"
3. "Build something" - "Oh, I'm in favour of the idea of this thing, but not this particular thing. The thing I will accept is different and further away from me"

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Meanwhile, in your other ear, departments like Transport are said to be reeling under the financial settlement they are likely to get in the budget.
It's entirely possible for the Lichfield-Crewe section of HS2 to be reinstated, but no money provided to actually build it.

 

[DelW]

Meanwhile, in your other ear, departments like Transport are said to be reeling under the financial settlement they are likely to get in the budget.
It's entirely possible for the Lichfield-Crewe section of HS2 to be reinstated, but no money provided to actually build it.

That might at least mean that the alignment is retained and protected from other development. Sunak's scorched earth policy was to sell off the land as soon as possible to prevent any of his successors reinstating it, but fortunately the early election he called scuppered that.

 

[DarloRich]

Meanwhile, in your other ear, departments like Transport are said to be reeling under the financial settlement they are likely to get in the budget.
It's entirely possible for the Lichfield-Crewe section of HS2 to be reinstated, but no money provided to actually build it.

Exactly - hard to square a, reported, 20% reduction for departments ( including DfT) and spending on HS2A - something has to give

 

[camflyer]

Welcome news if true. Since the scheme about to be "unscrapped" already has Royal Assent it should be fairly easy to get started again. Just another couple of years wasted in a failed attempt by a PM trying to save his neck.

 

[station_road]

Exactly - hard to square a, reported, 20% reduction for departments ( including DfT) and spending on HS2A - something has to give

The 20% reduction is likely to be opex (day to day running costs) - it's been reported for a while now that the budget will include some pretty major investment announcements if the fiscal rules are changed to allow the value of things built to be offset against borrowing costs.

So more likely to be that there is money to build it, but no money to run any trains on it once finished

 

[Bletchleyite]

So more likely to be that there is money to build it, but no money to run any trains on it once finished

HS2 really should be able to run at an operating profit.

 

[ThameslinkUser]

Like this - I had independently come to the conclusion that English needs new words to help describe progress on major infrastructure projects

A word exists: resurrected.

 

[DarloRich]

The 20% reduction is likely to be opex (day to day running costs) - it's been reported for a while now that the budget will include some pretty major investment announcements if the fiscal rules are changed to allow the value of things built to be offset against borrowing costs.

that distinction is going to be lost:

Insert name of scheme here CUT to fund HS2 WHITE ELEPHANT scream the Mail.

 

[mike57]

It wouldn't surprise me if it was reprieved but then parked 'until the financial situation improves' unless some financial smoke and mirrors can allow it to be done without increasing taxes to pay for it. Put it another way if taxes rises are attributed to it, it will be unpopular with a large proportion of the electorate.

 

[Nottingham59]

HS2 really should be able to run at an operating profit.

It will.

But of course the WCML will change from just about breaking even to major operating losses, as the lucrative business market to Manchester and Birmingham switches to HS2, and WCML becomes just a commuter mainline with a lot of freight.

 

[Horizon22]

It will.

But of course the WCML will change from just about breaking even to major operating losses, as the lucrative business market to Manchester and Birmingham switches to HS2, and WCML becomes just a commuter mainline with a lot of freight.

It’s not as lucrative as it once was and a regular commuter base can be profitable too (see many London & SE TOCs)

 

[Bradford1]

Number 10: "We said we would not reverse the decision to cancel phase 2.

What's the point of these media leaks.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

Number 10: "We said we would not reverse the decision to cancel phase 2.
What's the point of these media leaks.

There's another 2 weeks until the budget.
Until then there will be a lot of ever-more-extreme theories about where the government's priorities lie, what will be funded and where cuts will come.
The government can only deny everything until Rachel Reeves announces what she will do - if she has indeed decided by then.

 

[Wilts Wanderer]

That might at least mean that the alignment is retained and protected from other development. Sunak's scorched earth policy was to sell off the land as soon as possible to prevent any of his successors reinstating it, but fortunately the early election he called scuppered that.

Incredible how incompetent the Tories were at being incompetent! If it wasn’t a serious matter, it would be rather funny.

 

[ThameslinkUser]

So what? There's not enough demand to justify a Eurostar service there or they'd have lobbied for it.

 

[Struner]

A word exists: resurrected.

As in Easter?

 

[InTheEastMids]

A word exists: resurrected.

Yes, but by the end of this sorry saga we'll probably still need terms like de-resurrected and un-de-re-scoped to fully convey the horror to future generations.

 

[plugwash]

HS2 really should be able to run at an operating profit.

But likely at the cost of abstracting a bunch of revenue from the classic railway.

 

[Stossgebet]

But likely at the cost of abstracting a bunch of revenue from the classic railway.

But with the benefit of increasing capacity, and growing market share. And perhaps more importantly, saving the need for the next generation to completely rebuild all three main lines north from London.

 

[Bradford1]

Interesting timing in today's newspapers for how good HS2 train's interior will be