HS2 Phase 2 or NPR

[Legolash2o]

If the government only had funding to fund a single project, which one would you choose and why?

This comes after reading a few articles that suggests NPR could be scrapped/deferred.

I would choose NPR purely because I'm from the North and it feels quite rare we get as much funding. It also allow the north to grow as a combined unit and rely less on London which works best for the whole UK. Phase 2+ could also be done at a later stage.

 

[LittleAH]

HS2 isn't about London, it's about greater connectivity across the UK. For example, Birmingham to Leeds is 2 hours, with HS2 it's 49 minutes.

The whole NPR will be scrapped article is about Bradford, not faster trans-pennine services at all and if you can achieve similar journey times for Liverpool - Manchester - Leeds -NE England than scrapping NPR via Bradford saving billions of bounds, then that is perfectly reasonable. HS2's Eastern leg delivers the most benefits - build it.

 

[Legolash2o]

Good arguments. There's also the capacity increase as well.

I understand that NPR and TRU are separate.Personally, in regards to NPR, I'd be happy if just the Manchester, Bradford and Leeds section was approved as it's the hardest section. The other parts would come later.

 

[Jagdpanther]

What a ridiculous statement.

HS2 isn't about London,

 

[Ianno87]

What a ridiculous statement.

Two thirds of HS2 infrastructure is north of Birmingham.

 

[ParanDark]

HS2 Phase 2 should be chosen as all the studies have already been done and we are just waiting for final approval from the powers above and legislation to be presented to parliament. Very little has been done for NPR other than a vague idea of route and it would be several years to get to the stage HS2 Phase 2 is at now which also means a new government will be in power and they may not look at it as favourable. In my opinion any scrapping of HS2 will just further damage the case for future High Speed Rail projects and we will just get token rail upgrades instead... HS2 may not be perfect but it meets the requirements.

So I say get on building what has been presented. I believe it would be best for NPR to initially focus on Liverpool-Manchester as the route is more certain and there will be less bickering (time wasted) compared to deciding the route between Manchester-Leeds.

 

[LittleAH]

What a ridiculous statement.

No, it really isn't ridiculous. Because you fail to take in the importance of capacity and time savings to other parts of the UK. Just because something stars in London, doesn't make it about London exclusively. Just as an example...Man Pic - Birmingham. Currently 88 mins, HS2 40 mins.

 

[Ianno87]

No, it really isn't ridiculous. Because you fail to take in the importance of capacity and time savings to other parts of the UK. Just because something stars in London, doesn't make it about London exclusively. Just as an example...Man Pic - Birmingham. Currently 88 mins, HS2 40 mins.

Precisely this. HS2's most transformational journey times are for those journeys not to or from London.

 

[Legolash2o]

I think the reason why I sometimes forget it's not just London is because I'm from the North (East Yorkshire) combined with that the London-Birmingham phase has started, with what feels like a worry that the bits north of Birmingham can be scrapped at anytime.

Until the time that Phases 2+ are voted on, approved and essentially shovel in the grounds. It'll be quite hard to shake that worry.

 

[fishwomp]

NPR or Phase 2 is a false choice - what would you do with £50B to the railways .. my top two would not include Phase 2 or NPR.

HS2 isn't about London, it's about greater connectivity across the UK. For example, Birmingham to Leeds is 2 hours, with HS2 it's 49 minutes.

[..]

People from Leeds can get to go to Birmingham - quickly.. how many people want to - or will want - to do that daily? Annually?

If we really want to improve quality of daily life for the _most_ people, it's got to be a case of connecting more suburbia with better quality services (no more 2 car sardine-crush, enhanced speed, some reopenings).

So.. let's quadruple Leeds to Cross Gates and Man Pic through Castlefield, reopen the old bores at Standedge, reopen Low Moor to Heckmondwike and Thornhill, Whilst we're at it, double track to Keighley - Oxenhope because we can clearly afford it and it's small beer. I reckon so far my crayons probably only tot up to 1bn, so please feel free to send the other £49bn my way...

 

[GRALISTAIR]

NPR - time for less north south and more east west connectivity imho - of course I would like both.

 

[edwin_m]

Precisely this. HS2's most transformational journey times are for those journeys not to or from London.

Indeed. The most accelerated HS2 journey involving the eastern leg is Birmingham to Leeds. Due to the ECML being fairly fast and HS2 being faster but longer, London to Leeds benefits less and London to York and beyond benefits less than 30min, and that's probably before the new non-stop ECML journeys are considered. Birmingham to Nottingham also does pretty well out of the eastern leg, if the necessary connections are included for it to operate.

 

[xotGD]

If HS2 wasn't about London they would build Brum to Leeds and Manchester first.

Of course it is a London focused project. Anything else is just a fortuitous bonus.

 

[Ianno87]

People from Leeds can get to go to Birmingham - quickly.. how many people want to - or will want - to do that daily? Annually?

Page 28 of https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&sou...FjAAegQIBhAC&usg=AOvVaw1Ar3cEKH8xEf2QX48YWjZp reckons around 600 passengers per day in the late 2030s. Obviously that will grow over the following decades.

However, part of the problem of that forecast is that current demand is highly suppressed by the poor journey time and low capacity of the route. I suspect the demand forecast for post-HS2 won't really pick up the effect of this.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Jun 2021 ==

If HS2 wasn't about London they would build Brum to Leeds and Manchester first.

Of course it is a London focused project. Anything else is just a fortuitous bonus.

It started that way as that's where the capacity need is greatest. No.point building to Leeds/Manchester first if there's nowhere to send the trains at the London end due to lack of capacity.

 

[LittleAH]

NPR or Phase 2 is a false choice - what would you do with £50B to the railways .. my top two would not include Phase 2 or NPR.


People from Leeds can get to go to Birmingham - quickly.. how many people want to - or will want - to do that daily? Annually?

If we really want to improve quality of daily life for the _most_ people, it's got to be a case of connecting more suburbia with better quality services (no more 2 car sardine-crush, enhanced speed, some reopenings).

So.. let's quadruple Leeds to Cross Gates and Man Pic through Castlefield, reopen the old bores at Standedge, reopen Low Moor to Heckmondwike and Thornhill, Whilst we're at it, double track to Keighley - Oxenhope because we can clearly afford it and it's small beer. I reckon so far my crayons probably only tot up to 1bn, so please feel free to send the other £49bn my way...

It's not just about Leeds, XC services go much further, it's about A) increasing capacity and B) reducing journey times throughout so that rail can better compete with air/road.

As for your crayonista suggestions, reopening a Diggle bore doesn't do anything about a 45mph curve at Marsden, a 65mph limit from Diggle to Stalybridge, a 30-40mph speed limit through to Guide Bridge or a 60mph limit into Man Pic. If you truly want to make rail more competitive, speed and capacity are pivotal.

 

[LNW-GW Joint]

If HS2 wasn't about London they would build Brum to Leeds and Manchester first.
Of course it is a London focused project. Anything else is just a fortuitous bonus.

HS2 (full route) is a replacement for the southern WCML, MML and ECML and is a capacity booster on those routes (including freight).
NPR in its full scope is dependent on HS2 (Phase 2) for its western (Liverpool) and eastern (Sheffield, Leeds, York) legs.
The difficult bit, the critical and expensive "red wall" bit, is in the middle, across the Pennines.

 

[PR1Berske]

If HS2 wasn't about London they would build Brum to Leeds and Manchester first.

Of course it is a London focused project. Anything else is just a fortuitous bonus.

Exactly.

London gets what London wants.

HS2 is a London scheme without doubt and without question.

And I'll tell you this fact too. HS2 was launched years ago with the threat that the WCML would be full. It is still not full. The very reason for HS2 has been proven by time.

NPR is clearly much more needed and more necessary. But NPR is not London.

 

[Ianno87]

And I'll tell you this fact too. HS2 was launched years ago with the threat that the WCML would be full. It is still not full.

Thanks for that. I needed a good laugh.

 

[PR1Berske]

Thanks for that. I needed a good laugh.

The case for HS2 was built on the line being full within a decade, maybe even less than a decade.

Well here are two facts.

It still takes 2½ hours from the north to London, and the WCML is still not full.

 

[Legolash2o]

It'll be interesting to know in percentage terms the current capacity of WCML.

I suspect it's not something that can be easily calculated. You'd also have a performance buffer so you wouldn't want it to be 100% rammed.

 

[camflyer]

NPR - time for less north south and more east west connectivity imho - of course I would like both.

Surely both are need. If you greatly increase East-West connectivity and capacity that is only going to put more demand on North-South services for connections which are currently not worthwhile.

 

[Legolash2o]

Surely both are need. If you greatly increase East-West connectivity and capacity that is only going to put more demand on North-South services for connections which are currently not worthwhile.

Although both are needed, this thread is about picking just one of the options whilst having a friendly debate.

In the future with more working from home and some government departments moving further north, there may not be a need to go North-South as often.

 

[GRALISTAIR]

If you truly want to make rail more competitive, speed and capacity are pivotal.

exactly- it makes rail more competitive gets people off short haul planes and out of their cars/SUVs and freight off the roads giving a real carbon reduction

 

[hwl]

NPR - time for less north south and more east west connectivity imho - of course I would like both.

NPR is heavily reliant on parts of HS2 2b (East and West) happening to reduce its costs, it isn't standalone.
NPR Liverpool - Manchester with the potential new route into Liverpool from HS2 then become very cheap for NPR. It also helps address some of the Castlefield capacity issues. Hence NPR Liverpool - Manchester is fairly high probability.
Journey time reductions and the potential capacity post electrification (electric only trains are far cheaper to purchase, operate and lengthen) post TRU on both Manchester - Leeds and Leeds - York mean that NPR's business case will with struggle against a post TRU benchmark. (More than half of the NPR Leeds - Manchester journey time reduction compared to today can be achieved with TRU)
Sheffield - Leeds / York improvement will happen with HS2b east.

(Don't shoot the messenger, just pointing out what many may not want to hear)

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Jun 2021 ==

Although both are needed, this thread is about picking just one of the options whilst having a friendly debate.

In the future with more working from home and some government departments moving further north, there may not be a need to go North-South as often.

NPR isn't a standalone option it assumes HS2 is happening for certain items.

The other times they moved part of government departments further north it created more travel demand (including all the consultants). The government first class travel ban hit GNER/East Coast badly.

 

[fishwomp]

It's not just about Leeds, XC services go much further, it's about A) increasing capacity and B) reducing journey times throughout so that rail can better compete with air/road.

As for your crayonista suggestions, reopening a Diggle bore doesn't do anything about a 45mph curve at Marsden, a 65mph limit from Diggle to Stalybridge, a 30-40mph speed limit through to Guide Bridge or a 60mph limit into Man Pic. If you truly want to make rail more competitive, speed and capacity are pivotal.

Well, true, I would also four track (again) Guide Bridge all the way into pic. Have spent too long waiting behind stoppers around Godley / Hyde area..

As for Marsden, this is fixed by 1 mile of new tunnel: extend straight as you leave the tunnel into the side of the adjacent hill, bear right, come out half a mile east of Marsden station. Reckon I still have change from 50bn to tidy up a lot more railway.

Interesting that no-one so far is disagreeing with the KWVR proposal, so if that's uncontroversial we should start now. Could be a poster child for hydrogen - retrofit the kettles and they will still produce steam for the photos, which obviously would be lost if we electrified it!

 

[The Planner]

The case for HS2 was built on the line being full within a decade, maybe even less than a decade.

Well here are two facts.

It still takes 2½ hours from the north to London, and the WCML is still not full.

How much capacity is there left south of Rugby?

 

[Grimsby town]

NPR is heavily reliant on parts of HS2 2b (East and West) happening to reduce its costs, it isn't standalone.
NPR Liverpool - Manchester with the potential new route into Liverpool from HS2 then become very cheap for NPR. It also helps address some of the Castlefield capacity issues. Hence NPR Liverpool - Manchester is fairly high probability.
Journey time reductions and the potential capacity post electrification (electric only trains are far cheaper to purchase, operate and lengthen) post TRU on both Manchester - Leeds and Leeds - York mean that NPR's business case will with struggle against a post TRU benchmark. (More than half of the NPR Leeds - Manchester journey time reduction compared to today can be achieved with TRU)
Sheffield - Leeds / York improvement will happen with HS2b east.

(Don't shoot the messenger, just pointing out what many may not want to hear)

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Jun 2021 ==


NPR isn't a standalone option it assumes HS2 is happening for certain items.

The other times they moved part of government departments further north it created more travel demand (including all the consultants). The government first class travel ban hit GNER/East Coast badly.

Completely agree with this. I'd rather have HS2 because it allows parts of NPR to be constructed relatively cheaply. Even without a new Leeds to Manchester line, HS2 as planned will free up capacity in Manchester by allowing TPE services from Leeds to Manchester Airport via Guide Bridge, the HS2 station and the HS2 tunnel to the airport. These services could then continue to Crewe or Birmingham even without additional NPR infrastructure. This frees up paths on the Castlefield Corridor and through Victoria.

The Sheffield to Leeds NPR services can also be achieved with a few upgrades between Sheffield to Goldthorpe and then joining HS2. NPR also has very little plans to extend station capacity in Leeds or Manchester as things stand whereas HS2 provides new platforms for both stations freeing up capacity in the current stations.

Anyway I think this is all academic. The transpennine upgrade should solve or at least relieve congestion issues between Huddersfield and Leeds and Leeds and York as well as improving journey time. The only real section of concern left will be Huddersfield to Manchester which I imagine is what NPR will solve by constructing a tunnel from Manchester to Marsden. This free's up Marsden to Manchester for additional freight and commuter/ local services.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 26 Jun 2021 ==

Well, true, I would also four track (again) Guide Bridge all the way into pic. Have spent too long waiting behind stoppers around Godley / Hyde area..

As for Marsden, this is fixed by 1 mile of new tunnel: extend straight as you leave the tunnel into the side of the adjacent hill, bear right, come out half a mile east of Marsden station. Reckon I still have change from 50bn to tidy up a lot more railway.

Interesting that no-one so far is disagreeing with the KWVR proposal, so if that's uncontroversial we should start now. Could be a poster child for hydrogen - retrofit the kettles and they will still produce steam for the photos, which obviously would be lost if we electrified it!

Guide Bridge to Manchester City Centre will probably gain an additional two tracks for Metrolink services to Glossop which will takeover the heavy rail stops so the Marple via Hyde trains will probably run non stop from Guide Bridge.

 

[PR1Berske]

How much capacity is there left south of Rugby?

Enough. More than enough. Trains are still running, Open Access operators are still doing business, Euston is still open.

The WCML is not full. Not now. Not last year. Not this year. Not five years ago. Not five years hence.

Were I in charge, HS2 would be scrapped yesterday. And with no compensation.

 

[The Planner]

Enough. More than enough. Trains are still running, Open Access operators are still doing business, Euston is still open.

The WCML is not full. Not now. Not last year. Not this year. Not five years ago. Not five years hence.

Were I in charge, HS2 would be scrapped yesterday. And with no compensation.

Thats not answering the question. What are you basing that on, can you quantify what capacity there is left and if it will be enough for the future?

 

[camflyer]

Enough. More than enough. Trains are still running, Open Access operators are still doing business, Euston is still open.

The WCML is not full. Not now. Not last year. Not this year. Not five years ago. Not five years hence.

Were I in charge, HS2 would be scrapped yesterday. And with no compensation.

That would leave your government with the mother of all law suits from the construction industry not mention the thousands of jobs lost. It would make the Carillion collapse look like a corner shop closing down.