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HS2 Eastern Leg replacement

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Shrop

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It’s now six months since the Eastern Leg of HS2 was officially scrapped. When Shapps made the announcement he promised an alternative, with £96bn of spending on a scheme that would “improve services in the Midlands and northern England ten years sooner”.

Does anyone know how this alternative is going?
 
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snowball

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Just guessing but I would expect it to be at least another year before we hear anything. More likely two.
 

Shrop

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Just guessing but I would expect it to be at least another year before we hear anything. More likely two.
You may well be right. The problem is, when the concept of HS2 was sold to the UK public in 2011 or so, it was on the basis that the entire Eastern leg would be open by 2033. Leaving an announcement for another year or two is cutting it fine for something that will go ahead ten years before 2033!
Okay, I'm cynical about HS2, I always have been since the presentations to professional audiences years before 2011 made Heathrow such an important part. It was clear back then that the thinking behind it was odd, without a good understanding of transport principles, and without genuine motives to "level up" the country.
 

snowball

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There's just been an item on BBC Look North (Yorkshire) complaining about the safeguarding of the former HS2 route - "six months after it was dropped, the land has still not been sold back". I suspect the residents will have a lot longer to wait than they guess.

The item suggested that the promised study into how to connect HS2 to Leeds has not yet even started, and they had an expert on who guessed that nothing will be decided before the next general election, or even soon after it.
 

Shrop

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There's just been an item on BBC Look North (Yorkshire) complaining about the safeguarding of the former HS2 route - "six months after it was dropped, the land has still not been sold back". I suspect the residents will have a lot longer to wait than they guess.

The item suggested that the promised study into how to connect HS2 to Leeds has not yet even started, and they had an expert on who guessed that nothing will be decided before the next general election, or even soon after it.
Interesting and thanks for posting this. I guess that in best Government project mismanagement form, they will delay things time and again whilst leaving huge swathes of land blighted. Then they'll suddenly realise that Rishi Sunak has given all of the available money away in the blatant attempt to soften the public attitude over Partygate, which of course he's already started doing. Government will rely on the fact that Boris & co. will use their usual ducking and diving which they've become so incredibly good at, to make the replacement Eastern Leg as much of a fantasy as are the chances of equal punishments for all over Partygate. But of course none of it will ever be the Government's fault. And sadly there's nothing anyone can do about it.
 
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HSTEd

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They will need to work out what they want to do before appointing an "independent review" with a composition carefully engineered to give them the solution they want.
 

Starmill

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The instructions at the time of the Integrated Rail Plan were pretty clear; all existing blight claims would continue to be valid in accordance with the existing legislation. The company were to keep the land and the relevant safeguarding would remain. In other words for the purposes of compensation and ownership it's as if the scheme is still going ahead. It will probably stay that way for a long while yet as alluded to by snowball.

In any case, with the the quickest progress, the authorisation for the Crewe - Manchester route may be in place by the time of the next General Election. By then, matters will be clearer on what the elements of NPR that will actually be constructed under the IRP will look like, hopefully having been consulted on. This means that there will be the Birmingham - East Midlands section, and the various NPR sections, plus the possibility of other bits and bobs that haven't yet been authorised that could be tacked on, such as work in Merseyside. These may be gathered together in the form of a new (rather long) hybrid bill, split into two hybrid bills, or use one or more of applications for Devolopment Consent Orders in addition to a hybrid bill. Only once we have reached that point would the legislative timeline for the Eastern Leg have come into view. This will probably not be until the second half of 2024 at the earliest, and may be 2025. By then a new government with very different priorities may be in power and may well choose to add back all of the cut elements of HS2 Eastern Leg. There is hope yet.

Of course, by exactly the same token, if they wanted to build everything in the IRP and also the Eastern Leg in full, there is a risk that an incoming government in 2024 could run out of time to get everything consulted on, budgeted in terms of the capital expenditure, and through Parliament in time for the end of the their own tenure. This could lead to further difficult decisions, such as breaking the Eastern Leg into further constituent parts. If the new government is not a continuity with the current one, it will have one almighty legislative agenda to try and get through. HS2 is never going to be higher priority than election systems, constitutional questions, welfare and tax reform, employment rights or energy policy. There are probably more things you can add to that list.
 
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Halish Railway

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I can’t help but feel that getting on with electrifying the MML to South Kirkby Jn and Doncaster, as well as tagging on the Cross Country route to Birmingham and the Erewash Valley line as part of a rolling program of electrification would be a quick win.
 

Shrop

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This will probably not be until the second half of 2024 at the earliest, and may be 2025. By then a new government with very different priorities may be in power and may well choose to add back all of the cut elements of HS2 Eastern Leg. There is hope yet.
I wish I could share your optimism. Sadly I've seen to much disinterest from politicians to share your hope.
HS2 is never going to be higher priority than election systems, constitutional questions, welfare and tax reform, employment rights or energy policy. There are probably more things you can add to that list.
I'm not sure quite what you mean about electoral systems being a high priority. We do urgently need a review of electoral systems in order to encourage people to vote rather than to be sufficiently disillusioned with the performance of our MPs as to not vote. However, the only review that MPs (by which I mean Labour and Tories) ever have an interest in, is tweaking boundaries to try to give a marginal candidate a better chance of being elected. They're certainly never going to be interested in something like proportional representation, even though it's the only genuine way to run a democracy, because they both benefit form the bias that the present system affords them.

And meanwhile, HS2 was steamrollered through on the basis of close links with Heathrow being an essential part of it, followed by Crossrail being the scapegoat reason for the route when the Heathrow imperative was downgraded. So HS2 has been a VERY high priority, and yet they still managed to shelve the most useful part of it, ie the Eastern Leg.
 

Confused52

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Perhaps in referencing "election systems" Starmill was referring to the 2023 Parliamentary Boundary Review.
 

Starmill

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I wish I could share your optimism. Sadly I've seen to much disinterest from politicians to share your hope.

I'm not sure quite what you mean about electoral systems being a high priority. We do urgently need a review of electoral systems in order to encourage people to vote rather than to be sufficiently disillusioned with the performance of our MPs as to not vote. However, the only review that MPs (by which I mean Labour and Tories) ever have an interest in, is tweaking boundaries to try to give a marginal candidate a better chance of being elected. They're certainly never going to be interested in something like proportional representation, even though it's the only genuine way to run a democracy, because they both benefit form the bias that the present system affords them.

And meanwhile, HS2 was steamrollered through on the basis of close links with Heathrow being an essential part of it, followed by Crossrail being the scapegoat reason for the route when the Heathrow imperative was downgraded. So HS2 has been a VERY high priority, and yet they still managed to shelve the most useful part of it, ie the Eastern Leg.

Perhaps in referencing "election systems" Starmill was referring to the 2023 Parliamentary Boundary Review.
The incumbent government is looking to restrict access to the vote through voter ID law and shoring up their unfair advantage through the Parliamentary boundary review and by moving some types of election over to First Past the Post that do not currently use it. A government formed of opposition parties would have an unknown agenda at this point in time but we can be sure it'd be important to them to reverse some of this work or maybe even amend the Parliamentary elections to make them more proportional.There is essentially no possibility of a Labour majority government. A minority government or a special arrangement with the Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru and the Green Party would see constitutional and election issues "on the table". This is really not on topic here however and I'm sure it's common ground that HS2 isn't a priority compared with these kinds of changes.
 

Class 170101

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HS2 2B Eastern beyond East Midlands Parkway to Leeds / York will either happen as proposed, through Toton or not at all. The ideas being looked at are crackers in the extreme and as for renewing the ECML in the way the WCML was done with Route Modernisation, that just won't fly.
 

12LDA28C

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PM Liz Truss has recently announced that she intends to reinstate the HS2 Eastern leg which her predecessor Boris cancelled. Of course talk is cheap and it remains to be seen whether she will be in office long enough to make good on that commitment.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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PM Liz Truss has recently announced that she intends to reinstate the HS2 Eastern leg which her predecessor Boris cancelled. Of course talk is cheap and it remains to be seen whether she will be in office long enough to make good on that commitment.
She also promised that NPR would serve Bradford directly.

Jeremy Hunt is now in charge of spending decisions (with reductions in all departments).
The first hurdle is to ensure the Crewe-Manchester HS2 Bill progresses through its Committee stage (held up by the leadership change).
Also to find out if the Golborne link is in or out after the change of PM/Sec of State/Chancellor.
The eastern leg/NPR issues are much more complex.
 
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Nottingham59

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The latest 6 month report to Parliament by Mark Harper, this week's Transport Secretary says that work is continuing on developing the Eastern leg

The government is continuing work to develop plans for HS2 East, a new high-speed line between the West Midlands and East Midlands, which would enable HS2 to serve Nottingham and Sheffield (via Derby and Chesterfield).

Development of plans for HS2 East is being carried out by HS2 Ltd and Network Rail, in conjunction with work to electrify the Midland Main Line. The output of this work will be used to inform future decisions on how to progress the scheme, including how HS2 East can support economic growth aspirations in the region.
But interestingly the figures in the financial annex at the end suggest that forecast spending in FY22-23 has been cut from a budgeted £100m to zero. Which rather suggests to me that the Eastern leg stump in reality is already dead.
 

Bald Rick

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But interestingly the figures in the financial annex at the end suggest that forecast spending in FY22-23 has been cut from a budgeted £100m to zero. Which rather suggests to me that the Eastern leg stump in reality is already dead.

That will be rounding, as it is to the nearest tenth of a billion.
 

Bald Rick

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Presumably until 17th November no funding of anything is absolutely certain and if they do have a £30bn black hole to fill quite a lot will be deferred to CP7 at best

HS2 is outside the control period process.
 

HSTEd

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I expect the scheme to be axed.

Although it has turned into such an enormous mess that perhaps it would be better if it was.

Increasingly I have questions about the fitness for purpose of the hybrid bill process
 

JamesT

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The incumbent government is looking to restrict access to the vote through voter ID law and shoring up their unfair advantage through the Parliamentary boundary review and by moving some types of election over to First Past the Post that do not currently use it. A government formed of opposition parties would have an unknown agenda at this point in time but we can be sure it'd be important to them to reverse some of this work or maybe even amend the Parliamentary elections to make them more proportional.There is essentially no possibility of a Labour majority government. A minority government or a special arrangement with the Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru and the Green Party would see constitutional and election issues "on the table". This is really not on topic here however and I'm sure it's common ground that HS2 isn't a priority compared with these kinds of changes.
Boundary reviews really shouldn't be controversial. Failing to have them shifts the advantage towards parties that are strong in urban areas as their populations fall in comparison to rural ones. (i.e. Labour). Can you seriously argue we shouldn't have constituencies that are similarly sized? The boundaries are decided by an independent commission, this isn't the US where the governing parties decides what the constituencies should be.
 

Starmill

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Boundary reviews really shouldn't be controversial. Failing to have them shifts the advantage towards parties that are strong in urban areas as their populations fall in comparison to rural ones. (i.e. Labour). Can you seriously argue we shouldn't have constituencies that are similarly sized? The boundaries are decided by an independent commission, this isn't the US where the governing parties decides what the constituencies should be.
That's absolutely the correct theory. However in practice it will go down differently. Gerrymandering is an established practice which the Conservatives are keen to import, same as voter ID.
 

quantinghome

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Failing to have them shifts the advantage towards parties that are strong in urban areas as their populations fall in comparison to rural ones. (i.e. Labour).
That was the general picture post-war, but it's changed in the last decade or so with urban area populations increasing again, particularly in city centres.

The other key issue is regional population changes, which tends to favour the south of England.

Not that this is a bad thing per se; constituency sizes do need to be roughly equal.

The boundaries are decided by an independent commission, this isn't the US where the governing parties decides what the constituencies should be.
The proposals also need to be approved by parliament. This has been uncontroversial historically, but given the current state of politics who knows whether it will remain so?
 

Sonik

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HS2 was steamrollered through on the basis of close links with Heathrow being an essential part of it, followed by Crossrail being the scapegoat reason for the route when the Heathrow imperative was downgraded. So HS2 has been a VERY high priority, and yet they still managed to shelve the most useful part of it, ie the Eastern Leg.
If we put Heathrow aside for a moment, the design with OOC and Euston is not too bad in terms of interfacing HS2 with London and the wider catchment, particularly if Crossrail 2 ever gets built. So while the thinking may have been flawed the process still produced an adequate output.

Back OT, regardless of the BCR I still think that the Eastern leg as originally proposed has a very questionable topology, it has too many spurs and terminals which don't make for efficient use of pathing, and did not directly reach two of the largest markets at Nottingham and Derby.

It remains to be seen what the ultimate outcome will be, but I think it's only fair to acknowledge that some of the conclusions reached by the IRP do have a fair point. The message has just been lost in all the howls of protest at toys being taken away. Not least that some of the alternatives proposed have far more scope to deliver improvements incrementally, vs a scheme that would take 20-30 years to produce anything, which is all a bit 'jam tomorrow' AFAICS.
 
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HSTEd

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It remains to be seen what the ultimate outcome will be, but I think it's only fair to acknowledge that some of the conclusions reached by the IRP do have a fair point. The message has just been lost in all the howls of protest at toys being taken away. Not least that some of the alternatives proposed have far more scope to deliver improvements incrementally, vs a scheme that would take 20-30 years to produce anything, which is all a bit 'jam tomorrow' AFAICS.
It is long been noted that incremental schemes almost never happen.

HS2 was proposed as a big bang project simply because it was the only way to actually get anything.
 

Sonik

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I can’t help but feel that getting on with electrifying the MML to South Kirkby Jn and Doncaster, as well as tagging on the Cross Country route to Birmingham and the Erewash Valley line as part of a rolling program of electrification would be a quick win.
MML to South Kirkby/Doncaster is part of all serious options shown in the IRP technical annex. e.g. 'Hybrid to Leeds', so that bit is probably a no-brainer.

The Birmingham route was the 'Upgrades Only' option, to be done if the Eastern Leg didn't get built at all, which seems unlikely now the grade separation at Marston is already starting construction.

Building on the MML upgrades, 'Hybrid via Erewash' is one of the wider options, with 'Hybrid via Newark' being the alternative.

Personally, I quite like the look of the Newark option, because this would additionally provide speed & capacity benefits to ECML for the North East & Scotland, and there are options to run Leeds HS2 trains via two different routes (i.e. Sheffield & Derby, or Doncaster & Nottingham) which both fills up trains and provides better regional connectivity. It's also cheaper and less disruptive to build a new line alongside ECML because the area is flatter and less populous.

The Erewash option includes a lot of new line that's only able to be used by HS2 to Leeds (this somewhat bizarrely being proposed as a south only facing terminus), which was AFAICS the main problem with the original HS2 topology in the first place.

IRP Technical Annex

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

It is long been noted that incremental schemes almost never happen.

HS2 was proposed as a big bang project simply because it was the only way to actually get anything.
Honestly though, I think that these things can work both ways.

For example NPR has been massively curtailed and TPU scope just keeps on growing.

Plus legacy assets like ECML signaling need replacing anyway, if HS2 gets built or not.
 
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HSTEd

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For example NPR has been massively curtailed and TPU scope just keeps on growing.
That's because TPU is rapidly mutating into another WCRM or GWRM style debacle.

People fall into believing the old lie that upgrades are cheap and easy, and keep adding more and more scope in a desperate attempt to save money by scrapping new purpose built infrastructure.

Plus legacy assets like ECML signaling need replacing anyway, if HS2 gets built or not.

And yet the ECML signalling system is not scheduled to even be consolidated into ROCs until about 2070, so clearly the signal system on the line is not a priority in any sense of the word. (That was the last I heard as a timeline for Morpeth box)
And replacing the signalling on a post HS2 ECML is going to be a very different project to replacing the signalling on a no-HS2 ECML.
 

Sonik

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That's because TPU is rapidly mutating into another WCRM or GWRM style debacle.

People fall into believing the old lie that upgrades are cheap and easy, and keep adding more and more scope in a desperate attempt to save money by scrapping new purpose built infrastructure.

And yet the ECML signalling system is not scheduled to even be consolidated into ROCs until about 2070, so clearly the signal system on the line is not a priority in any sense of the word. (That was the last I heard as a timeline for Morpeth box)
And replacing the signalling on a post HS2 ECML is going to be a very different project to replacing the signalling on a no-HS2 ECML.
I'm not suggesting it's the best solution

These things are getting funded so will happen, which is better than nothing. Unlike HS2 East, or the full scale NPR.
 

Glenn1969

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I'm not suggesting it's the best solution

These things are getting funded so will happen, which is better than nothing. Unlike HS2 East, or the full scale NPR.
Were getting funded. After Thursday I think quite a lot of things will get scaled back
 
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