Theres a few problems with that analysis:Firstly, to give you an idea of how busy a road with a peak of 300 cars an hour is, a road carrying 100 cars an hour is seen as the threshold of a road where footways are provided. In actual traffic frequenties that's (assuming a fairly even split by direction) that's a car overtaking a cyclist on average once every 24 seconds (which sounds a lot but government guidance says that cycles should be able to cycle at 15kph, meaning that along a 2km road you would likely be passed by something like 20 cars).
I would also question how many people would be cycling if there's no settlement of over 500 within 2.5 miles, as that would mean that the major places that people wanted to cycle to would likely be over 3 miles away, even if you were taking from within half a mile of the bridge and going just beyond the 2.5 mile distance.
Even if they were then providing 500m of cycle route to get you across/under a bridge is hardly going to make any difference to hire safe that route is.
I also said next to no cycle provision, that doesn't mean that there shouldn't be some passive provission for a shared route if traffic volumes increased.
Even at the higher traffic flow figure out 450, that's a car overtaking a cyclist every 16 seconds or 30 cars overtaking a cyclist on a 2km length of road.
Both those traffic flows are fairly low and probably a lot lower than a lot of roads which have a fair number of cyclists and no cycle provision.
Yes traffic flows can change when new developments happen, however if that was the determining factor of where we provided cycle facilities then the whole country would need to have cycle tracks along side it.
Actually a better thing to spend government money on would be to ensure that there was a better provision of cycle routes to schools. For instance changing the provision of school buses so that the 3 mile distance only counted if there was a safe cycling distance over a large percentage of the route as this petition calls for:
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/224790
- traffic volumes don't split equally, and you can safely assume at least 2/3rds of the traffic is going the same direction as the cyclist
- 3 miles is a completely reasonable distance to want people to cycle. A lot of cyclists wouldn't even get the bike out for less than 2 since it's such an easy walk
- getting overtaken every 15-20 seconds by a fast-moving car is extremely stressful for normal people. Arguably in a 60 limit there is no volume of overtaking cars which is comfortable, but that kind of regularity would leave most people a quivering wreck after 3 miles