HS1 question

[eps200]

What services currently run on it, I'm mostly interested in how many classic vs how many captive.

it's in relation the the cufufle over the HS1 HS2 link and avoiding needless london terminators.

Until we sort out the airline lobby's absurd security checks and do the passport checks in the tunnel or just join shcengen we cant run any captives through so that's not worth worrying too much about.

But is there any reason we can't have every HS1 classic joined up to a HS2 classic? allowing some more through routes?

Also supposing the continental through running is solved in the future is there any other way to then join up all London terminators?

 

[transmanche]

But is there any reason we can't have every HS1 classic joined up to a HS2 classic? allowing some more through routes?

When I suggested something similar (so that HS2 could serve Stratford Intl) I was resolutely told on here that there's no market for Kent-Birmingham travel...

 

[Chris125]

But is there any reason we can't have every HS1 classic joined up to a HS2 classic? allowing some more through routes?

Apart from Euston being the better option for most passengers, and there not being enough capacity on the link line, the 'classic compatible' services on HS1 and HS2 have very little in common apart from loading gauge - 140mph vs 225mph, 120m/240m formation vs 200m/400m, and perhaps most importantly short distance commuter train vs long distance intercity train.

It would also be a nightmare to operate reliably, with services between Kent and Liverpool/Newcastle/Scotland etc having to negotiate the 3rd rail network, HS1, a single track connecting line, the high frequency (quite probably ATO-operated) HS2, and then the WCML or ECML.

Chris

 

[pablo]

At present there appear to be 4 Javelins per hour intermingled with a similar number of Eurostars.
Javelins typically at XX:55 XX:10 xx:22 xx:40
Eurostars summat like XX:00 XX:15 XX:25 XX:45
All at a guess from casual observation. SE's HS timetable can be downloaded from their website. Presumably E*'s also.

 

[po8crg]

When I suggested something similar (so that HS2 could serve Stratford Intl) I was resolutely told on here that there's no market for Kent-Birmingham travel...

Running captives (not classics) from Ashford (stopping at Ebbsfleet, Stratford and OOC) to HS2 captive stations makes some sense. Kent to Birmingham/Manchester/Leeds is relatively well-served by Javelins to St Pancras and change to Euston (to WCML now and HS2 in future). But Essex/Suffolk would gain a lot, as changing at Stratford, even with the walk between stations, is a huge improvement over trying to get from Liverpool Street to Euston.

Classics leaving HS1 in Kent is a much trickier prospect: there aren't really big enough destinations to justify making the already complex classic trains even more expensive by making them dual voltage and adding third-rail shoes.

Plot out the journeys on NRE or your preferred alternative - Dover-StP-Euston-Manchester or KX-Leeds is not that bad a journey; Ipswich-Liv Street-Euston Square-Euston-Manchester is hell, and even using Crossrail to OOC only helps a little.

What might be interesting, if the HS2-HS1 link ran all the way to OOC (ie trains to OOC from HS1 or St P don't need an HS2 train path) and there was a classic link at OOC, is a Javelin-style service from some of the FGW commuter area. Gets you a cross-London train, stopping in St P, for perhaps £3bn - far less than Crossrail or Thameslink, and connecting to both.

 

[pablo]

The link is planned to go all the way to OOC into a central bay. There just isn't a proposal to connect any further.

 

[NotATrainspott]

Running captives (not classics) from Ashford (stopping at Ebbsfleet, Stratford and OOC) to HS2 captive stations makes some sense. Kent to Birmingham/Manchester/Leeds is relatively well-served by Javelins to St Pancras and change to Euston (to WCML now and HS2 in future). But Essex/Suffolk would gain a lot, as changing at Stratford, even with the walk between stations, is a huge improvement over trying to get from Liverpool Street to Euston.

Classics leaving HS1 in Kent is a much trickier prospect: there aren't really big enough destinations to justify making the already complex classic trains even more expensive by making them dual voltage and adding third-rail shoes.

Plot out the journeys on NRE or your preferred alternative - Dover-StP-Euston-Manchester or KX-Leeds is not that bad a journey; Ipswich-Liv Street-Euston Square-Euston-Manchester is hell, and even using Crossrail to OOC only helps a little.

What might be interesting, if the HS2-HS1 link ran all the way to OOC (ie trains to OOC from HS1 or St P don't need an HS2 train path) and there was a classic link at OOC, is a Javelin-style service from some of the FGW commuter area. Gets you a cross-London train, stopping in St P, for perhaps £3bn - far less than Crossrail or Thameslink, and connecting to both.

The passenger numbers for a regular captive Kent/West Midlands service that doesn't stop in the middle of London would most certainly not be enough to regularly fill a 200m (i.e. almost a double Javelin) captive train, and would waste a path on HS2 that would be more profitable with an extra London-North service.

I could imagine a Javelin service that terminates at Old Oak though to use any extra capacity on the link line. There won't be any conflict between HS2 paths and an eastern terminating service at Old Oak other than any through services to the Continent. This terminating service would then be able to connect to the Great Western network as most GW trains would stop at Old Oak's GWML platforms, but there isn't much point in the massive amount of extra infrastructure required to connect the GWML to the HS1-HS2 link line.

 

[eps200]

No one is saying dont stop in central London, we're saying dont terminate there.

Also aren't DB adding an Amsterdam, franfurt splitter?

 

[swt_passenger]

What services currently run on it, I'm mostly interested in how many classic vs how many captive.

If that's your main question, then none of the existing passenger stock used on HS1 is captive.

It couldn't be, or Waterloo wouldn't have been accessible.

 

[HowardGWR]

As a 'by the way' question, do we know what percentage of Eurostar pax travel from further away from London (say 50kms plus)? It would be interesting to see a star diagram. The airlines know because they have the address of everyone who books, and I suppose EuroStar has too, except for 'walk-ups'.

 

[asylumxl]

As a 'by the way' question, do we know what percentage of Eurostar pax travel from further away from London (say 50kms plus)? It would be interesting to see a star diagram. The airlines know because they have the address of everyone who books, and I suppose EuroStar has too, except for 'walk-ups'.

I have a feeling that information is commercially sensitive and they won't release it. Or I seem to remember something similar being peddled before.

 

[eps200]

If that's your main question, then none of the existing passenger stock used on HS1 is captive.

It couldn't be, or Waterloo wouldn't have been accessible.

In that case is accessing the classic network from st Pancras viable to save on HS2 paths.

 

[NotATrainspott]

The link is planned to go all the way to OOC into a central bay. There just isn't a proposal to connect any further.

What? You're very much mistaken there. That was one of the suggestions for how the link could work but it was rejected as not delivering enough benefits (especially since it would mean you would spend all that on the tunnel and the rebuilding of the NLL viaduct without actually connecting the HS1 metals to HS2 metals). Trains would certainly be able to terminate at OOC and return eastwards, but they are also capable of running into HS2 and continuing onwards. Otherwise, why would the plans for the Birmingham stations include areas for passport control and security?

 

[EM2]

As a 'by the way' question, do we know what percentage of Eurostar pax travel from further away from London (say 50kms plus)? It would be interesting to see a star diagram. The airlines know because they have the address of everyone who books, and I suppose EuroStar has too, except for 'walk-ups'.

Purely from observation, I'd say (very, very roughly) that it's a 50-50 inside/outside M25 split.
When there's been major disruption to inbound E* and taxis have been required, the passengers have been split this way (inside M25, pay and claim back; outside M25, E* book on their account), directed to different areas for their cabs and it looks about half-and-half.

 

[Altnabreac]

Running captives (not classics) from Ashford (stopping at Ebbsfleet, Stratford and OOC) to HS2 captive stations makes some sense. Kent to Birmingham/Manchester/Leeds is relatively well-served by Javelins to St Pancras and change to Euston (to WCML now and HS2 in future). But Essex/Suffolk would gain a lot, as changing at Stratford, even with the walk between stations, is a huge improvement over trying to get from Liverpool Street to Euston.

Classics leaving HS1 in Kent is a much trickier prospect: there aren't really big enough destinations to justify making the already complex classic trains even more expensive by making them dual voltage and adding third-rail shoes.

Plot out the journeys on NRE or your preferred alternative - Dover-StP-Euston-Manchester or KX-Leeds is not that bad a journey; Ipswich-Liv Street-Euston Square-Euston-Manchester is hell, and even using Crossrail to OOC only helps a little.

What might be interesting, if the HS2-HS1 link ran all the way to OOC (ie trains to OOC from HS1 or St P don't need an HS2 train path) and there was a classic link at OOC, is a Javelin-style service from some of the FGW commuter area. Gets you a cross-London train, stopping in St P, for perhaps £3bn - far less than Crossrail or Thameslink, and connecting to both.

I wonder what the business case would be like for a Kent - OOC - Heathrow service? In theory I'd have thought you could align the HS1 link line so trains could access the FGW slows at OOC as well as the HS2 platforms?

 

[NotATrainspott]

I wonder what the business case would be like for a Kent - OOC - Heathrow service? In theory I'd have thought you could align the HS1 link line so trains could access the FGW slows at OOC as well as the HS2 platforms?

CFA 04 map book: Kilburn (Brent) to Old Oak Common (Ref: ES 3.2.2.4) [Page 52]

It's more difficult than you think.

 

[Chris125]

In that case is accessing the classic network from st Pancras viable to save on HS2 paths.

The classic network isn't likely to have much spare room which couldn't be better used either, especially the NLL I'm afraid given the popularity of the Overground.

I wonder what the business case would be like for a Kent - OOC - Heathrow service? In theory I'd have thought you could align the HS1 link line so trains could access the FGW slows at OOC as well as the HS2 platforms?

IIRC the proposed HS2 Heathrow branch will have a London-facing connection so a HS1-Heathrow service could be provided - I don't however think a GWML connection at OOC would be practical given location of the station, the need to avoid conflicts with HS2 services etc. If there were any spare paths on the GWML relief lines to use they'd surely be better used for Crossrail services anyway.

Chris

 

[HSTEd]

I thought the HS2 branch was probably never going to be built?
Its business case seems to get weaker every time I see it.

 

[Chris125]

I thought the HS2 branch was probably never going to be built?
Its business case seems to get weaker every time I see it.

It probably won't IMHO, but it's the only practical way there'll be a HS1-Heathrow service.

Chris

 

[DownSouth]

I wonder what the business case would be like for a Kent - OOC - Heathrow service? In theory I'd have thought you could align the HS1 link line so trains could access the FGW slows at OOC as well as the HS2 platforms?

I would think you'd be better off making an either/or choice about what happens to services using the HS1-HS2 link - send them all to HS2 and have Heathrow passengers change at OOC or send them all to Heathrow and have HS2 passengers change at OOC. Proper usable public transport needs to be predictable enough for passengers to turn up and go instead of faffing about with timetables, and this is better served by a combination of higher frequencies and good connections than less regular "direct" trains spread across a multitude of destinations.

The same applies to HS2 serving Heathrow. The best way is to have all HS2 trains stop at OOC and Crossrail/HEx offering excellent connections from there, not by spreading the HS2 service across Heathrow and London with a reduced frequency to each.

I can think of one left-field options for Kent-Airport his speed rail links though: Air France TGV/AGV services stopping in Kent and serving Paris CDG

 

[Altnabreac]

CFA 04 map book: Kilburn (Brent) to Old Oak Common (Ref: ES 3.2.2.4) [Page 52]

It's more difficult than you think.

Hmm, not simple. On a quick look you'd probably need to split the line underground somewhere in the region of Kensal Green cemetery and have a second portal at OOC near the FGW lines. Probably not going to be viable compared to running straight into OOC platforms.

Could imagine a Kent - OOC service business case being boosted by the 1 change route to Heathrow option.

Suspect all these options fall down on increased usage of the North London Line. 2-3 trains per day don't ruin the NLL timetable. 2-3 per hour would do.

To run a reliable service you'd need a fully segregated route from HS1.

 

[po8crg]

I'm inclined to the view that a fully segregated route from HS1 is going to be necessary eventually. One problem with the original HS2 Ltd proposal is that they only came up with three options:

single-track NLL gauge clearance (£400m)
double-track NLL gauge clearance (£800m)
Fully segregated line at 400kph. (£3,200m)

No consideration of a fully segregated line at 200-250kph, which would presumably fall somewhat lower than a 400kph link.

Greengauge 21 have a pretty interesting analysis of domestic demand for an HS2-HS1 segregated line. Note that demand is pretty light from Kent; most passengers will board at Stratford, in particular originating from East London/Docklands (using DLR or non-rail transport to Stratford), plus Essex/Suffolk passengers changing at Stratford. They haven't allowed for how much of this demand can be satisfied by passengers using Crossrail between Stratford and Old Oak Common - their no-link model doesn't seem to allow for even the Shenfield metro passengers who have a direct XR service to OOC.

They seem to be looking at something in the region of 4-6tph. Is there capacity for that on HS1 (probably)? Could those trains terminate at Stratford? (no) Ashford? (if you build a few bay platforms) Is there room for new platforms? (probably) Have they costed that? (no)

 

[pablo]

What? You're very much mistaken there. That was one of the suggestions for how the link could work but it was rejected as not delivering enough benefits (especially since it would mean you would spend all that on the tunnel and the rebuilding of the NLL viaduct without actually connecting the HS1 metals to HS2 metals). Trains would certainly be able to terminate at OOC and return eastwards, but they are also capable of running into HS2 and continuing onwards. Otherwise, why would the plans for the Birmingham stations include areas for passport control and security?

NATS; You persistently get the wrong end of the stick
This time, my response followed P08crg's and was in the context of domestic services.

and you need to read the documents and inwardly digest before you jump down people's throats.

 

[HowardGWR]

Purely from observation, I'd say (very, very roughly) that it's a 50-50 inside/outside M25 split.
When there's been major disruption to inbound E* and taxis have been required, the passengers have been split this way (inside M25, pay and claim back; outside M25, E* book on their account), directed to different areas for their cabs and it looks about half-and-half.

Thanks. Such data, perhaps narrowed down to pax who live on the HS2 route somewhere, combined with projected modal shift from air to rail, should give an idea about just how empty a Paris - Stratford - OOC -Birmingham service (say) would be between Stratford and OOC. It's the same sort of argument that was used by the trains that were to terminate in Blackfriars (Sutton Loop) but due to politics will now go through to the north, because it was held that otherwise the pax would have to change en masse at Blackfriars for Faringdon (where they really want to go). In this case however, we are expected to carry only pax from Brum to Paris, because of border controls being held to be needed. Remember they are not needed to leave UK for France. The only reason one does pass through border controls at St Pancras is because they are French. In reverse, ditto, except they are UK at Paris Nord. Actually, I don't see why anyone bothers, but that's another discussion.

Last, does it really matter how empty the trains are between OOC and Stratford. The convenience and extra income from appreciative pax must cancel out that one. It would mean extra modal shift from Brum to Paris, in my example.

 

[Chris125]

No consideration of a fully segregated line at 200-250kph, which would presumably fall somewhat lower than a 400kph link.

I can't see it making any difference, the only practical alternative to the NLL is tunnelling throughout at massive expense, so it may as well be built for high speed especially if it's only single bore.

Chris

 

[NotATrainspott]

NATS; You persistently get the wrong end of the stick
This time, my response followed P08crg's and was in the context of domestic services.

and you need to read the documents and inwardly digest before you jump down people's throats.

Sorry. What I read from your post was that you thought the HS1-HS2 link was intended to be a bay platform with buffer stops at the end of it in the middle of OOC. This was one of the options put forward for the link in the Review of HS1 to HS2 Connection Final Report [Document Page 6, PDF Page 9]. If you had meant the link to the GWML then you are indeed correct.

 

[DownSouth]

They haven't allowed for how much of this demand can be satisfied by passengers using Crossrail between Stratford and Old Oak Common - their no-link model doesn't seem to allow for even the Shenfield metro passengers who have a direct XR service to OOC.

This. As well as the Crossrail option (a walk or DLR trip between the Stratford stations plus a Crossrail ride) there is also a plethora of modes by which an interchange can be made between the London terminals of the two lines. The advantage of getting on non-reserved trains at the start of a journey instead of the first intermediate station alone would probably tip the balance in favour of a London transfer despite the walking distance being a couple of minutes longer.

It would seem that the best use of the link line will probably be for small numbers of Manchester/Birmingham to Europe trains, and for the inevitable outcome of HS2 being opened to 160 km/h freight services running at night to try and make some money off the line.