How Viable are Preserved Railways?

[158760]

Even a half-hourly service is good. It is certainly more frequent than any service the Bluebell themselves could run to East Croydon.

And cheaper.

 

[Trainlog]

OK, I'll give you Swindon. I think it pretty much fits "in a wealthy part of the country with excellent transport links, a decent economy, and a genuine (railway) history". Seemed like a run-down hole last time I was there, just a few years ago, and makes Peterborough seem quite pleasant!

Although it's true a lot of the "dire" places I was thinking of are in depressed areas.

But back on topic, I think the NVR suffers from a combination of negatives most of which are hard to overcome:

• Lack of nearby huge city, which railways like the SVR, ELR, Bluebell etc. benefit from; the GCR alternatively has Derby, Nottingham and Leicester put together all very close.
• Lack of feature stations - only Wansford has any real attraction - although the "new" station at Peterborough should improve matters
• Poor location of stations (Peterborough in a somewhat obscure location, Wansford not in Wansford)
• No spectacular scenery
• No special feature like the GCR's double track or the ELR's two lines (one to Rawtenstall, another to Heywood). I suppose the short section through the tunnel to Yarwell could be seen as a "special feature" but it comes across more as awkward, with a long pause at Wansford in one direction and a very short stop in the other.
• General lack of name recognition
• Not in a "holiday" area like the WSR, NYMR

This is a shame, since I'm very fond of it, specifically because of the wonderful non-UK rolling stock such as the Swedish railcar/trailer, and some of the continental coaches with their stunning interiors. But I'm not sure that's going to attract a lot of non-enthusiasts no matter how well you sell it.

While the foreign rolling stock probably attracts a very niche crowd, the foreign/uninspiring rolling stock on the line probably puts off many more. Easier said than done, but with some decent rolling stock the line would do a lot better. I visited when Flying Scotsman and Britannia were present simultaneously and it was busy without any passenger trains even running that day. Am I going to drive two hours for a ride on a pacer or a peak though, when I can do that a lot closer to home if I wanted- probably not!

Perhaps the Nene Valley should look to do a compromise and obtain some of the WW2 American War Department locomotives, such as the S160S or an S100, to be permanently rostered there.

They wouldn't look out of place with either the BR Mk1 coaches, wagon rakes, or some of the continental coaches; the S160S can be converted to oil firing and the S160s are large locomotives that can be crowd pullers.

If the railway wants to try a new Christmas train angle, they would make a good mock Polar Express, should the railway decide to do that instead.

 

[158760]

I did contact them regarding the tours , the reply I got was it’s worked around availability between services etc , they also said people still come from east Grinstead but just miss the first 20 odd minutes which i thought was an odd thing to say , why would people pay knowing they are going to miss at least 20 mins ( if train is on time).
Your second point is some what baffling to me. Why on earth would you run two separate time tables ? That makes no logical sense, especially as customers will be working around the published one

I’m now able to give a little update on this - the shed tours have been moved 30 minutes later for the 2026 season. If you’re still interested in doing one, the booking link is available here.

In addition to that, timetables are being altered to remove the discrepancies between working and public timetables. The timetables are publicly available as far as April, but the full calendar should be released within the next month.

I appreciate your original post was back in August last year, but I hope this resolves some of your issues from the time.

 

[Gooner18]

I’m now able to give a little update on this - the shed tours have been moved 30 minutes later for the 2026 season. If you’re still interested in doing one, the booking link is available here.

In addition to that, timetables are being altered to remove the discrepancies between working and public timetables. The timetables are publicly available as far as April, but the full calendar should be released within the next month.

I appreciate your original post was back in August last year, but I hope this resolves some of your issues from the time.

That’s brilliant, thank you for the update

 

[shredder1]

Didn't the Elsecar Railway effectively go bust? The heritage railway trust transferred the lease on the land back to Barnsley Council although the heritage centre itself appears to be up and running.  

Ive heard a rumour that the railway may be activated again, not sure if there is any truth in it?

 

[YorkshireBear]

Ive heard a rumour that the railway may be activated again, not sure if there is any truth in it?

I think they investigated it. I'm not sure the conclusion was yes, they got some bad advice in and amongst.

 

[shredder1]

I think they investigated it. I'm not sure the conclusion was yes, they got some bad advice in and amongst.

Thank you.

 

[Forty29]

Worried how the war in the middle east will stretch the finances of heritage railways regarding fuel costs. Hope they've placed and received order's for diesel by now. Perhaps they will be more reliant on coal again unless that's effected as well. Probably.

 

[Egg Centric]

Worried how the war in the middle east will stretch the finances of heritage railways regarding fuel costs. Hope they've placed and received order's for diesel by now. Perhaps they will be more reliant on coal again unless that's effected as well. Probably.

I have no idea what the prices are, but I can guarantee that they will be. Here is an accessible interesting piece why (tldr is they're excellent substitutes for one another).

 

[Krokodil]

It's not a good time to be ordering heating oil. Scott Lucas was saying on Times Radio that the price he pays in Ireland has doubled in a week. He was kicking himself for not having ordered a week earlier.

 

[Forty29]

It's not right the oil companies do this treating loyal customers like pawns in a chess match. Supply and demand? No ripping people off!Are they hoping it will put people off buying to conserve stocks?

 

[35B]

It's not right the oil companies do this treating loyal customers like pawns in a chess match. Supply and demand? No ripping people off!Are they hoping it will put people off buying to conserve stocks?

Loyal customers? I don't know about you, but I'm congenitally disloyal and don't pay much heed to who I buy from.

 

[Egg Centric]

It's not right the oil companies do this treating loyal customers like pawns in a chess match. Supply and demand? No ripping people off!Are they hoping it will put people off buying to conserve stocks?

I'm not sure if this is satirical but if it's serious this is not how markets work.

 

[Mike Machin]

It's not right the oil companies do this treating loyal customers like pawns in a chess match. Supply and demand? No ripping people off!Are they hoping it will put people off buying to conserve stocks?

Very large users, such as airlines and cruise lines usually ‘hedge’ their fuel costs by buying and paying or gigantic quantities of fuel in advance when the markets are in their favour.

With smaller quantities, such as domestic heating oil and petrol/diesel at most filling stations the price paid on delivery is dictated by the price the delivering company paid on the day when they collected the fuel from the refinery or fuel storage depot. This price is dictated by how much the fuel will cost to replace the fuel they are about to sell. So, if the markets rise sharply, the price the delivery company pays on collection rises sharply and in turn this dictates that the price to the customer will be considerably higher too.

I think that the larger mainline diesel train operators are able to take advantage of a certain amount of hedging of costs by buying in advance, but sadly smaller operators such as heritage railways will find they face a steep increase in the price of diesel.

 

[BayPaul]

It's not right the oil companies do this treating loyal customers like pawns in a chess match. Supply and demand? No ripping people off!Are they hoping it will put people off buying to conserve stocks?

Yes. The reason that prices rise is because supply is reduced (in this case by war). Higher prices reduce demand back down to match supply - for example putting people off driving in favour of more fuel efficienct transport. If there is an over supply then they will want to sell the excess, so lower prices will encourage people to buy more.

It's nowhere near that simple, but basically, yes, the global fuel price increases are to balance supply and demand.

 

[Magdalia]

It's nowhere near that simple, but basically, yes, the global fuel price increases are to balance supply and demand.

Very large users, such as airlines and cruise lines usually ‘hedge’ their fuel costs by buying and paying or gigantic quantities of fuel in advance

One of the complicating factors is hedging.

Lat's say there is a train operator North South Trains that uses 1000 litres of diesel oil per day. It "hedges" by buying its next 90 days of supply at £1 per litre. The "hedge" will be a contract with a financial institution, let's say Hawthorn Bank, who contract to deliver 1000 litres per day at £1 per litre to North South Trains.

Every day Hawthorn Bank has to go into the spot market and buy 1000 litres of diesel to deliver to North South Trains. It hopes that, on average, it can buy in the spot market at 95p per litre, and make some profit.

Now think what happens when the supply of diesel oil suddenly shrinks by 20%. Hawthorn Bank has still got to buy those 1000 litres to deliver to North South Trains. Thousands of other counterparties to hedges are in the same position. Supply has shrunk, but the demand from all of the hedge contracts is fixed. Hawthorn Bank and all the counterparties to the hedges still have to buy the diesel oil they need to meet their contractual obligations to North South Trains and all of the other "hedgers". The only thing that can adjust is the price of diesel oil, which goes up a lot.

With a bulk commodity like oil buying stocks now to sell later is not particularly significant because of the limited availability and cost of storage. And anyone with stocks will be selling now, while the price is high, having bought at much lower prices before the crisis unfolded.

 

[simonw]

One of the complicating factors is hedging.

Lat's say there is a train operator North South Trains that uses 1000 litres of diesel oil per day. It "hedges" by buying its next 90 days of supply at £1 per litre. The "hedge" will be a contract with a financial institution, let's say Hawthorn Bank, who contract to deliver 1000 litres per day at £1 per litre to North South Trains.

Every day Hawthorn Bank has to go into the spot market and buy 1000 litres of diesel to deliver to North South Trains. It hopes that, on average, it can buy in the spot market at 95p per litre, and make some profit.

Now think what happens when the supply of diesel oil suddenly shrinks by 20%. Hawthorn Bank has still got to buy those 1000 litres to deliver to North South Trains. Thousands of other counterparties to hedges are in the same position. Supply has shrunk, but the demand from all of the hedge contracts is fixed. Hawthorn Bank and all the counterparties to the hedges still have to buy the diesel oil they need to meet their contractual obligations to North South Trains and all of the other "hedgers". The only thing that can adjust is the price of diesel oil, which goes up a lot.

With a bulk commodity like oil buying stocks now to sell later is not particularly significant because of the limited availability and cost of storage. And anyone with stocks will be selling now, while the price is high, having bought at much lower prices before the crisis unfolded.

I doubt Hawthorn bank is buying only in spot market. Hedging is a bit more nuanced than that

 

[Forty29]

Thanks everyone for explaining "hedging" a very interesting way of doing business.

 

[jupiter]

Apart from the fact the business is nothing to do with oil or trains, only money. They might as well be dealing with coffee or anything really. It's the way the water industry has gone. It's not about pipes or reservoirs or heaven forbid an essential public service, only money. Pumping **** into seas and rivers, no problem to them. Oil, nah, take the money and run and whine like a stuck pig when you get unlucky, but there's always the taxpayer to bail you out because you're too big and important to fail.

 

[Magdalia]

I doubt Hawthorn bank is buying only in spot market. Hedging is a bit more nuanced than that

Indeed, Hawthorn Bank will be offsetting some of the risk elsewhere in the market. But in the end the contracts have to be fulfilled, and, in times of shortage, that drives up the price.

Apart from the fact the business is nothing to do with oil or trains, only money. They might as well be dealing with coffee or anything really.

Actually it is to do with the underlying product. Hedging started in agriculture and coffee is a good example. At the beginning of each growing season coffee growers can lock in to a price for their harvest, similarly coffee processors can lock in to a supply price. Hedging in markets in agricultural commodities has a very long history because of the unpredictability of harvests.

But it was mostly confined to agriculture until increasing computer power and financial deregulation facilitated expansion into markets such as oil.

It's the way the water industry has gone.

No it isn't. There is no market for water like there is for oil or agricultural products. There are financial and regulatory issues with the water industry but they are a long way away from hedging in the oil markets.

 

[BayPaul]

Apart from the fact the business is nothing to do with oil or trains, only money. They might as well be dealing with coffee or anything really. It's the way the water industry has gone. It's not about pipes or reservoirs or heaven forbid an essential public service, only money. Pumping **** into seas and rivers, no problem to them. Oil, nah, take the money and run and whine like a stuck pig when you get unlucky, but there's always the taxpayer to bail you out because you're too big and important to fail.

If done well, hedging can allow the business to concentrate on what it does well, rather than panicking about changing commodity prices. It can lock in prices at known rates, (for example at the point when prices are set) avoiding the gambling element that comes with buying at spot rates.

 

[Flying Phil]

Of course, most heritage railways are very good at conventional "Hedging" and their green corridors are another factor in their favour when considering their viability. Ecology, whilst difficult to quantify, nevertheless is a heritage railway selling point.

 

[35B]

Of course, most heritage railways are very good at conventional "Hedging" and their green corridors are another factor in their favour when considering their viability. Ecology, whilst difficult to quantify, nevertheless is a heritage railway selling point.

But which needs to be set against the negative impact on demand of travelling through a green corridor, unable to see what’s around.

 

[Bodiam]

But which needs to be set against the negative impact on demand of travelling through a green corridor, unable to see what’s around.

When I used to do line side vegetation management on a heritage railway some 40 years ago, our general plan was to keep hedges down to fence height and leaves hedgerow trees at intervals. That way if you looked along the line it looked as if it was an avenue of trees ( which was typical of that line many years before) but if you were looking out from a carriage window you could mostly see out as the gaps between trees were much longer than the trees themselves.