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How much longer will social distancing go on for in the UK?

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brad465

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Due to social distancing, there could be fewer vote counters, meaning the results potentially being delayed even from the Friday.
As someone who has put down availability for vote counting in the upcoming local elections (in Maidstone) I might be able to confirm what my local council is planning to do if I'm selected. I've done GE counting with them before, where I heard in the past local election counting is only done during the day, so it's possible mine will have a bigger delay, unless they do opt for night working as well (Bath & NE Somerset has done that before, having worked for them on it in the past too).

As they've just been confirmed as going ahead I may well hear fairly soon.
 
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NorthOxonian

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Due to social distancing, there could be fewer vote counters, meaning the results potentially being delayed even from the Friday.
There are also more elections than usual (since all of last year's will be taking place then too, as well as any by-elections from the last year), which will make the count take longer. It'll probably take a few days though the first results will come through earlier.
 

6862

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I think it's fair to say that recent news about the apparent ineffectiveness of the Oxford/AZ vaccine against the South African strain (not yet published) will likely be used as justification for keeping lockdown and all the measures for much longer than many on here are predicting. It's basically like the situation with the Kent strain again, except that this time they can wheel out even more fear by saying that the vaccine doesn't work against it. The SA strain is likely very widespread in the community, and as a more transmitable variant it will inevitably become dominant sooner or later. I suspect the next review of lockdown/restrictions will yield no changes, with this as the justification.
 

yorksrob

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I think it's fair to say that recent news about the apparent ineffectiveness of the Oxford/AZ vaccine against the South African strain (not yet published) will likely be used as justification for keeping lockdown and all the measures for much longer than many on here are predicting. It's basically like the situation with the Kent strain again, except that this time they can wheel out even more fear by saying that the vaccine doesn't work against it. The SA strain is likely very widespread in the community, and as a more transmitable variant it will inevitably become dominant sooner or later. I suspect the next review of lockdown/restrictions will yield no changes, with this as the justification.

Although that does invite the awkward question to the Government "Why did you do nothing for a month while you knew the South African varient existed".

They might want to avoid that can of worms.
 

6862

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Although that does invite the awkward question to the Government "Why did you do nothing for a month while you knew the South African varient existed".

They might want to avoid that can of worms.

They knew the Kent variant existed for a while (possibly as much as 2 months) but only announced it at the opportune time to cancel Christmas, so I wouldn't put it past them to do the same again to get a longer lockdown.
 

DustyBin

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I think it's fair to say that recent news about the apparent ineffectiveness of the Oxford/AZ vaccine against the South African strain (not yet published) will likely be used as justification for keeping lockdown and all the measures for much longer than many on here are predicting. It's basically like the situation with the Kent strain again, except that this time they can wheel out even more fear by saying that the vaccine doesn't work against it. The SA strain is likely very widespread in the community, and as a more transmitable variant it will inevitably become dominant sooner or later. I suspect the next review of lockdown/restrictions will yield no changes, with this as the justification.

Sadly I don’t think this is beyond the realms of possibility. With the review date rapidly approaching there is far too much negativity for my liking, despite the vaccination programme being a huge success. I’m trying to stay positive but I’m prepared for the worst (you need to be with this lot in charge!).
 

6862

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Sadly I don’t think this is beyond the realms of possibility. With the review date rapidly approaching there is far too much negativity for my liking, despite the vaccination programme being a huge success. I’m trying to stay positive but I’m prepared for the worst (you need to be with this lot in charge!).

The negativity from the government and the media will only increase as we get closer to the review date as they try desperately to keep the population scared and submitted to the rules. I think they know that if they let the cat out the bag again like they did last summer they'll struggle to get it back in again. I expect some grim news conferences within the next few weeks, probably with some appearances from Dr Doom and Dr Gloom (Whitty and Valence).
 

Tezza1978

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The negativity from the government and the media will only increase as we get closer to the review date as they try desperately to keep the population scared and submitted to the rules. I think they know that if they let the cat out the bag again like they did last summer they'll struggle to get it back in again. I expect some grim news conferences within the next few weeks, probably with some appearances from Dr Doom and Dr Gloom (Whitty and Valence).
I think that as Zahawi has realised and shown on Marr this morning the issue is to prevent people getting hospitalised, very sick and dying. The AZ vaccine will do that for the SA variant -its not essential to to stop people getting symptoms. Moderna and Novavax are also imminent for rollout and they seem more effective against this variant though not 100%. I just can't see any realistic scenario of an attempt to keep all restrictions being kept in place by force without Johnson quickly losing his job due to a mass revolt in the Tory party, with Sunak installed in his place. In the spring/summer cases will be naturally far lower and it will be impossible politically to keep heavy restrictions in place without the population ignoring them and businesses revolting and opening up anyway if the government tries anything stupid. New booster vaccines available by September /October should easily stop things running out of control again.
 

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I think that as Zahawi has realised and shown on Marr this morning the issue is to prevent people getting hospitalised, very sick and dying. The AZ vaccine will do that for the SA variant -its not essential to to stop people getting symptoms. Moderna and Novavax are also imminent for rollout and they seem more effective against this variant though not 100%. I just can't see any realistic scenario of an attempt to keep all restrictions being kept in place by force without Johnson quickly losing his job due to a mass revolt in the Tory party, with Sunak installed in his place. In the spring/summer cases will be naturally far lower and it will be impossible politically to keep heavy restrictions in place without the population ignoring them and businesses revolting and opening up anyway if the government tries anything stupid. New booster vaccines available by September /October should easily stop things running out of control again.

I agree that the game is up, or at least it should be. It just really annoys me and makes me slightly uncomfortable that there are people trying to prolong the misery. Their intentions are quite blatant, I only hope they fail to find the “evidence” they need to force the government’s hand between now and the 22nd of February.
 

Кряква

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The deadline for the beginning of a gradual re-opening is March, after that I shall be inviting all and sundry to pop-up gatherings as I please.

The variants are simply not relevant. We are currently locked in in an attempt to avoid needless deaths in the event of an imminent success by the vaccines in a month or two.

If the variants evade that, sorry, but you're getting it if you go outside. We're not doing this any longer and I wish the best of luck to those who are vulnerable.
 

duncanp

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And still the COVID bedwetters are at it, warning that restrictions on large gatherings will be in place for the next few years, as the world learns to live with coronavirus.

From the Telegraph live feed:-

Coronavirus latest news: Restrictions on large gatherings likely to be in place 'for next few years'​


Experts have warned that restrictions on large gatherings could remain in place for "the next few years" as the world learns to live with the coronavirus.

Tim Spector, a professor of genetic epidemiology at King's College London, told Times Radio that he "can't see us suddenly having another Cheltenham Festival with no regulations again".

"I can't see us having massive weddings with people coming from all over the world, I think for the next few years those days are gone," he added.

Prof Spector also suggested that basic infection control measures - including physical distancing, face masks and handwashing - should remain in place as they "don't cost really anything to do".

"I think we need to get used to that and that will allow us to do the things we really want to do more easily and more readily," he said.

On a more positive note Prof Spector, who created the Zoe Covid Symptom Study, said the infection survey indicates that coronavirus rates are "generally much lower everywhere" in the country, with around one in 170 people infected on average.

He suggested that reinstating the rule of six allowing people to meet outdoors should be "definitely encouraged" around the same time as primary schools begin to return.

What a complete and utter load of cobblers, and this is a prime example of The Telegraph using a clickbaiting headline to get people to read the article, which bears no relation to the headline.

Firstly it is only one person who has said that restrictions on large gatherings are likely to be in place for the next few years, and what makes the Telegraph think he is "an expert", more than anyone else who holds a different view?

Then this so called "expert" says "basic infection control measures - including physical distancing, face masks and handwashing - should remain in place as they "don't cost really anything to do".

Really?!?

Physical distancing places considerable extra costs on businesses (although with your secure well paid university job and pension I don't suppose you realise this in the slightest) and makes many businesses and events unviable.

Whatever your view on masks is, there are many people who do not like wearing them, and will avoid settings where they are compulsory unless it is unavoidable. For example, if masks are compulsory in theatres and cinemas, I will not be setting foot inside one, so they can kiss goodbye to the associated revenue.

More frequent handwashing is one of the least obtrusive measures, and I think that hand sanitiser stations will be around for a long time to come, and relatively few people are inconvenienced by them.

I think that large crowds will return from later on this year, after the vast majority of people have been vaccinated. I would expect, for example, football fans to be allowed back into stadiums from the start of the new season in August, if not before.
 

brad465

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And still the COVID bedwetters are at it, warning that restrictions on large gatherings will be in place for the next few years, as the world learns to live with coronavirus.

From the Telegraph live feed:-



What a complete and utter load of cobblers, and this is a prime example of The Telegraph using a clickbaiting headline to get people to read the article, which bears no relation to the headline.

Firstly it is only one person who has said that restrictions on large gatherings are likely to be in place for the next few years, and what makes the Telegraph think he is "an expert", more than anyone else who holds a different view?

Then this so called "expert" says "basic infection control measures - including physical distancing, face masks and handwashing - should remain in place as they "don't cost really anything to do".

Really?!?

Physical distancing places considerable extra costs on businesses (although with your secure well paid university job and pension I don't suppose you realise this in the slightest) and makes many businesses and events unviable.

Whatever your view on masks is, there are many people who do not like wearing them, and will avoid settings where they are compulsory unless it is unavoidable. For example, if masks are compulsory in theatres and cinemas, I will not be setting foot inside one, so they can kiss goodbye to the associated revenue.

More frequent handwashing is one of the least obtrusive measures, and I think that hand sanitiser stations will be around for a long time to come, and relatively few people are inconvenienced by them.

I think that large crowds will return from later on this year, after the vast majority of people have been vaccinated. I would expect, for example, football fans to be allowed back into stadiums from the start of the new season in August, if not before.
There is no way Cheltenham would be subject to anything like that, or any other horse racing events for that matter, given how much horse racing businesspeople donate to the Tory Party (this is believed to be why Cheltenham went ahead last year at a time almost every other mass gathering was called off).

On a separate note, and I'm sorry for bringing this up, but I do think the restrictions in place are providing some cover for Brexit fallout at the moment, which in itself is enough for the Government to want to keep them going. It was revealed this weekend by the Observer that exports to the EU have dropped 68% in the first month since. Even if, as is likely, this improves going forward, I doubt the Government would want too many negative headlines from it being headline news.
 

317 forever

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There are also more elections than usual (since all of last year's will be taking place then too, as well as any by-elections from the last year), which will make the count take longer. It'll probably take a few days though the first results will come through earlier.
I usually book the Friday after the local election votes off for the news coverage. This year I am having trouble figuring out what day is best to be off work then.
 

Mag_seven

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I would expect, for example, football fans to be allowed back into stadiums from the start of the new season in August, if not before.

I would hope so - don't forget Euro 2020 has been rescheduled to this year. No way should that be played behind closed doors.
 

NorthOxonian

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I usually book the Friday after the local election votes off for the news coverage. This year I am having trouble figuring out what day is best to be off work then.
I expect the bulk of the interesting stuff will be on the Saturday.

From what I understand, many councils seem to be counting the PCC elections on the Friday. Because they tend to cover many councils they'll want to do those first so any differences in speed between districts/counties in counting their own elections don't up hold the PCC count.
 

duncanp

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There is no way Cheltenham would be subject to anything like that, or any other horse racing events for that matter, given how much horse racing businesspeople donate to the Tory Party (this is believed to be why Cheltenham went ahead last year at a time almost every other mass gathering was called off).

On a separate note, and I'm sorry for bringing this up, but I do think the restrictions in place are providing some cover for Brexit fallout at the moment, which in itself is enough for the Government to want to keep them going. It was revealed this weekend by the Observer that exports to the EU have dropped 68% in the first month since. Even if, as is likely, this improves going forward, I doubt the Government would want too many negative headlines from it being headline news.

And next year there is Her Majesty The Queen's Platinum Jubilee.

Something would have to go seriously wrong for all the events and celebrations associated with the Jubilee to be cancelled or curtailed.

I think the government will be hoping that the Jubilee will promote an economic recovery and lift the mood of the nation, in the same way that the coronation did in 1953.
 

philosopher

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There is no way Cheltenham would be subject to anything like that, or any other horse racing events for that matter, given how much horse racing businesspeople donate to the Tory Party (this is believed to be why Cheltenham went ahead last year at a time almost every other mass gathering was called off).

On a separate note, and I'm sorry for bringing this up, but I do think the restrictions in place are providing some cover for Brexit fallout at the moment, which in itself is enough for the Government to want to keep them going. It was revealed this weekend by the Observer that exports to the EU have dropped 68% in the first month since. Even if, as is likely, this improves going forward, I doubt the Government would want too many negative headlines from it being headline news.
It is not all or nothing with gatherings. There is probably a middle ground where crowds at stadiums are limited to a third or half of the stadium’s capacity or large outdoor events such as New Year’s eve can go ahead but they have to be ticketed so organisers can limit numbers based on available space. Perhaps this could be a short term solution.
 

yorksrob

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It is not all or nothing with gatherings. There is probably a middle ground where crowds at stadiums are limited to a third or half of the stadium’s capacity or large outdoor events such as New Year’s eve can go ahead but they have to be ticketed so organisers can limit numbers based on available space. Perhaps this could be a short term solution.

It seemed to work briefly for non-league football this year.
 

Class 170101

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And still the COVID bedwetters are at it, warning that restrictions on large gatherings will be in place for the next few years, as the world learns to live with coronavirus.

From the Telegraph live feed:-



What a complete and utter load of cobblers, and this is a prime example of The Telegraph using a clickbaiting headline to get people to read the article, which bears no relation to the headline.

Firstly it is only one person who has said that restrictions on large gatherings are likely to be in place for the next few years, and what makes the Telegraph think he is "an expert", more than anyone else who holds a different view?

Then this so called "expert" says "basic infection control measures - including physical distancing, face masks and handwashing - should remain in place as they "don't cost really anything to do".

Really?!?

Physical distancing places considerable extra costs on businesses (although with your secure well paid university job and pension I don't suppose you realise this in the slightest) and makes many businesses and events unviable.

Whatever your view on masks is, there are many people who do not like wearing them, and will avoid settings where they are compulsory unless it is unavoidable. For example, if masks are compulsory in theatres and cinemas, I will not be setting foot inside one, so they can kiss goodbye to the associated revenue.

More frequent handwashing is one of the least obtrusive measures, and I think that hand sanitiser stations will be around for a long time to come, and relatively few people are inconvenienced by them.

I think that large crowds will return from later on this year, after the vast majority of people have been vaccinated. I would expect, for example, football fans to be allowed back into stadiums from the start of the new season in August, if not before.

I certainly am not rushing to do indoor things and travelling any great distances with mask wearing in place.

Football, Cheltenham and many other outdoor events are likely to be subject to mask wearing due to large crowds rather than not regardless of being outdoor events.
 

Class 33

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Another piece of news I've noticed today is this....


LOCKDOWN LIFT BLOW

Covid cases must fall by another 95% to 1,000 a day before lockdown is lifted, claim the NHS​


COVID infections must fall by another 95 per cent to just 1,000 a day before lockdown is lifted, say NHS bosses.

They insist lifting the no-nonsense pandemic restrictions too soon will lead to another wave of coronavirus cases.

Chris Hopson, chief executive of NHS Providers, is now to write to the PM to urge him not to lift lockdown until infection stats drop massively.

The number of new infections stood at 18,262 yesterday bringing the total number of cases across the country to 3,929,835.

Mr Hopson's plea comes even though 22 per cent of all over-18s in the UK have now been vaccinated - including many of the most vulnerable.

And the country is now on course to smash its target and give all adults both doses by August 14, according to analysis.

Current data also suggests that England's R rate is now below 1 for the first time since July.

However, a target of 1,000 new cases a day would scupper any hope of an early lift of lockdown.

Mr Hopson told the Sunday Times: “We have crested the peak, but we’re only just beginning the descent.

"We’re still at a dangerously high altitude, where the NHS is still under great pressure, and the thing that we know is that this descent is going to be much slower because people are taking longer to recover.

"It’s going to take months - it’s not going to take days and weeks.”

His warning came after the government’s Sage advisory committee of scientists said lifting the lockdown before May could trigger a fourth wave.

Even with a successful vaccine programme, they believe there could be a further 130,000 deaths between now and June next year.

And although the government is on track to vaccinate the over-70s by February 15 they believe infections could prove severe in the small percentage of recipients in whom the vaccine does not block symptoms.

The intervention by health chiefs and scientists comes as Boris Johnson prepares to set out a road map for recovery in a fortnight’s time.

Officials from No 10, the Cabinet Office and the Treasury met last week for the first time to discuss the long-awaited lockdown exit strategy.

Long-suffering Brits have had to endure three lockdowns already - and senior Cabinet members have insisted the current one must be the last.

Pubs, restaurants, shops and many other businesses are already on the brink of collapse after being shuttered for almost a year.

And families - in particular children stuck at home instead of school - are desperate for a return to normal life.


Vaccines Minister Nadhim Zahawi has said Britain will be able to massively ease restrictions once all over-50s have been offered the jab by late spring.

Alongside the discussions in No 10, the joint committee on vaccination and immunisation (JCVI) has begun drawing up the next phase of its inoculation strategy.

Court staff, delivery drivers and shop workers are among the frontline workers expected to be in the next tranche of people offered the vaccine.

A Whitehall source told the Sunday Times : “The JCVI has begun discussions about who should next be prioritised for the vaccine in order to reduce the number of Covid hospitalisations. "It makes sense to target those who come into contact most often with members of the public in order to reduce the transmission rate.”
Taxi drivers, refuse collectors and police officers are also among those who could be given accelerated access to the vaccine, the source reportedly added.

For crying out loud, there is more to this country than just pressure on the NHS! What about all the hugely damaging effects all these lockdowns and ridiculous restrictions are having on the economy, people's livelihoods and mental health? Is that of no concern to them??!! Whilst hospital numbers are still far too high at the moment, they ARE very steadily coming down now. And so are deaths. In a couple of months time now, both should be fairly low indeed thanks to the effects of all these millions of vaccines. Case numbers have been decreasing for a few weeks now. But for the NHS to put a target for the government that cases MUST come down to below 1,000 per day before lockdown can be lifted is just not right atall. They may well not get down to that level for several months yet, if atall even. We could for example reach an average of about 5,000 cases per day, but by then hospital numbers and deaths will be extremely low. So in the meantime they expect all Brits to kept under lockdown and all these hugely damaging restrictions??!! Absolutely nonsense. Some of these people make my blood boil! I hope when Johnson receive this letter from Mr Hopson, he tells him where to go!
 
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yorksrob

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Fundamentally, if the NHS requires months on end of lockdown to be "saved", then it's not worth saving.

Time for a European style social insurance system.
 

island

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Local elections going ahead...but bring your own pencil and wear a face mask!

...those are in May
I've signed up for a postal vote; whilst I'm not going to reopen the debate on the (in)effectiveness of masks, distancing is definitely effective and I find it easier to vote remotely anyway.
 

duncanp

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Another piece of news I've noticed today is this....




For crying out loud, there is more to this country than just pressure on the NHS! What about all the hugely damaging effects all these lockdowns and ridiculous restrictions are having on the economy, people's livelihoods and mental health? Is that of no concern to them??!! Whilst hospital numbers are still far too high at the moment, they ARE very steadily coming down now. And so are deaths. In a couple of months time now, both should be fairly low indeed thanks to the effects of all these millions of vaccines. Case numbers have been decreasing for a few weeks now. But for the NHS to put a target for the government that cases MUST come down to below 1,000 per day before lockdown can be lifted is just not right atall. They may well not get down to that level for several months yet, if atall even. We could for example reach an average of about 5,000 cases per day, but by then hospital numbers and deaths will be extremely low. So in the meantime they expect all Brits to kept under lockdown and all these hugely damaging restrictions??!! Absolutely nonsense. Some of these people make my blood boil! I hope when Johnson receive this letter from Mr Hopson, he tells him where to go!

This is all a load of bovine excrement designed to scare the government into maintaining the lockdown.

The key phrase in the article is "...The intervention by health chiefs and scientists comes as Boris Johnson prepares to set out a road map for recovery in a fortnight’s time..."

I also agree with @yorksrob that if the NHS requires months of lockdown to be "saved" then it is not worth saving.

I am pleased to see that the government is contemplating reforms of the NHS which will give the government more direct control over what happens and when. Otherwise the NHS will use "..because of COVD..." as an excuse for every failure and missed target for at least the next five years.

The scientists say "they believe infections could prove severe in the small percentage of recipients in whom the vaccine does not block symptoms."

Firstly, have they got any evidence to prove this.?

Secondly the emphasis is on the word SMALL. Yes, we know that the vaccine does not protect everyone, regardless of age or previous medical history. But the point is that the numbers who require hospitalisation should be sufficiently low that the NHS will be able to cope. We also know that vaccines can be modified to cope with new mutations and variants.

Thirdly - where is the evidence that people are taking longer to recover?

I think this is the last stand of the locktivists, because they know that once the lockdown exit plan is published, and particularly after each stage is implemented, no-one is going to listen to them any more.

The government have said that this lockdown is going to be the last, and something would have to go spectacularly wrong for another lockdown to even be contemplated, let alone enacted.
 

Carlisle

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Fundamentally, if the NHS requires months on end of lockdown to be "saved", then it's not worth saving.

Time for a European style social insurance system.
As long as politicians can conveniently rely on the threat of an overburdened NHS as a handy smokescreen for introducing, toughening & extending a multitude of restrictions with almost zero scrutiny, & it suits both parties to continue , I can’t see anything changing
 
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DB

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As long as politicians can conveniently rely on the threat of an overburdened NHS as a handy smokescreen for introducing, toughening & extending a multitude of restrictions with almost zero scrutiny, & it suits both parties to continue , I can’t see anything changing

What will change is the level of compliance - it's clearly dropping all the time despite it being cold and wet. If we have some warm, sunny days in March there will be hordes heading to the beaches.

And if it's being completely ignored, the government will have no choice but to reduce the restrictions as trying to maintain rules which many are ignoring will further erode any small credibility they still have left.
 

Кряква

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What will change is the level of compliance - it's clearly dropping all the time despite it being cold and wet. If we have some warm, sunny days in March there will be hordes heading to the beaches.

And if it's being completely ignored, the government will have no choice but to reduce the restrictions as trying to maintain rules which many are ignoring will further erode any small credibility they still have left.

I suspect that this is a major reason for them not wanting to budge at all.

I live in Central London. The second that non essential shops were opened, the streets were absolutely packed with people. It was wonderful to see. A real morale boost.

The Government know full well that we're in a binary mode now. Once the pubs open, people are going to go absolutely mental, and rightly so. So they want to postpone that moment.
 

YorkshireBear

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No we didn’t, and to suggest we did would be to completely lose sight of what “normal” actually is.
Agreed. It wasn't remotely normal, did not feel it to me anyway. It was significantly less depressing I agree with that though.
 

Carlisle

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The Government know full well that we're in a binary mode now. Once the pubs open, people are going to go absolutely mental, and rightly so. So they want to postpone that moment.
That’s unlikely to happen straight away unless it coincides with an exceptional heatwave.
Many pubs won’t have been a part of our lives for at least 6 months & given they begun being ordered to close again last October, confidence within the sector won’t be very high for quite a while yet
 

Кряква

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That’s unlikely to happen straight away unless it coincides with an exceptional heatwave.
Many pubs won’t have been a part of our lives for at least 6 months & given they begun being ordered to close again last October, confidence within the sector won’t be very high for quite a while yet
You're on a different planet, sorry.
 
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