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How much cash is LNER making?

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HullRailMan

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It’s hardly unreasonable for public services to be judged in the impact they have, be it measured financially or otherwise (eg social impact). New roads, for instance, need a business case which demonstrates a return on investment such as driving economic growth.
The comparison between rail and roads and the NHS is rather spurious. Almost everyone uses NHS services at some point (though were terrible at holding it to account for the services it provides) and everyone benefits from the road network directly or indirectly. Rail competes commercially with a range of private businesses for custom and, despite what some on here want to feel, is irrelevant to the majority of people in the UK who opt to rarely/never use it.
 
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43066

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is irrelevant to the majority of people in the UK who opt to rarely/never use it.

This is untrue - the railway is integral to the economy of London, so everyone in the country benefits from it indirectly, given London’s enormous contribution to the overall UK economy. Hence the justification for projects such as Crossrail. This might annoy folk in the regions, but it is a fact nonetheless.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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Regardless, 25% is not “effectively Hitachi” - it’s a long way from that.
The balance is essentially made up of finance houses specialising in infrastructure investment, some of them representing UK public service pension funds.
There's Japanese, Dutch and French elements in there too.
Originally the main Agility financier was Barclays Bank, but they divested their share.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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Hitachi owns 25% of the class 800/801 ROSCO Agility Trains https://www.agilitytrains.com/about
Yes but they are no longer the biggest shareholder which are AIP Management (30%) & GLIL Infrastructure (30%) the latter entity is actually a front company for a number of local authority pension funds which shows the tangled web thats created here. So LNER pay more for trains than perhaps they could have done in a conventional leasing deal but a portion of those earnings supports 100k's pensioners.
 

XAM2175

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Government incompetence is probably the best way to put it!
These absurd simplifications are really getting quite tired. The essential core of the model is not that unconventional and can in some ways can be considered prudent, as noted here:
To get the lifetime risk off the government's books and make Hitachi (and its banks) responsible for performance.
Hitachi is taking a big hit over the cracking issue (across all 80x).
Otherwise the TOCs would be responsible for the impact and repairs.
It's now common for manufacturers to take a sizeable stake in the maintenance and performance of their trains.

Yes, the DfT were taken for a bit of ride in no small part due to their inexperience in large-scale procurement, but a significant proportion of cost inflation has to be attached to how the delays and scope changes in the GWML electrification changed Hitachi's calculations and gave them grounds to submit an altered bid.

I would also note that Hitachi are not uniquely devious in going after this model of financing; it was effectively demanded by the terms of the original tender and had Hitachi not won the contract we'd probably be in the exact same position today complaining about the price of the Siemens-Bombardier IEP instead.
 

Trainbike46

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Yes, the DfT were taken for a bit of ride in no small part due to their inexperience in large-scale procurement, but a significant proportion of cost inflation has to be attached to how the delays and scope changes in the GWML electrification changed Hitachi's calculations and gave them grounds to submit an altered bid.
But that should only apply to the GWR IEPs, not the LNER ones right?
 

XAM2175

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But that should only apply to the GWR IEPs, not the LNER ones right?
No, it also included the then-East Coast units - basically all of Classes 800 and 801. Subsequent extensions (802, etc) have been on more conventional terms because the bulk of research and development risk was bundled into the IEP programme.
 

Trainbike46

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No, it also included the then-East Coast units - basically all of Classes 800 and 801. Subsequent extensions (802, etc) have been on more conventional terms because the bulk of research and development risk was bundled into the IEP programme.
so the government deciding to curtail the electrification in the southwest means that LNER is now paying more for trains in the northeast?

That does sound like a failure to me. Though I guess the main failure is surrounding GWEP
 
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Clarence Yard

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No, the contract for the LNER sets was agreed before the GWR electrification delays hit the GWR build.
 

IanXC

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Yes but they are no longer the biggest shareholder which are AIP Management (30%) & GLIL Infrastructure (30%) the latter entity is actually a front company for a number of local authority pension funds which shows the tangled web thats created here. So LNER pay more for trains than perhaps they could have done in a conventional leasing deal but a portion of those earnings supports 100k's pensioners.

Considering they're being perfectly open about their ownership I think you might want to retract the use of the phrase "front company".


GLIL said:
GLIL was established in 2015 by Greater Manchester Pension Fund (GMPF) and the London Pensions Fund Authority (LPFA) with £500 million of capital commitments.

Today, committed capital is at £3.6 billion, of which £2.1 billion is currently deployed across 14 diverse assets.

In December 2016, Lancashire County Pension Fund (LCPF), Merseyside Pension Fund (MPF) and West Yorkshire Pension Fund (WYPF) were admitted as members of GLIL, increasing committed capital to £1,275 billion.

On 31st March 2018, further changes were made to the structure of GLIL to facilitate wider participation by pension funds. GLIL moved to an open-ended fund structure that allowed for the admission of new members. GLIL is categorised as an Alternative Investment Fund (AIF) for regulatory purposes and LPPI was appointed by GLIL as the Alternative Investment Fund Manager (AIFM). LPPI is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority. LPPI is a wholly-owned investment management arm of Local Pensions Partnership Ltd. Representatives from the four Founding Members are formally seconded to LPPI to allow them to participate in the investment decision making process of LPPI.
 

DanNCL

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It doesn’t matter if Hitachi don’t own a majority share in Agility Trains anymore, the point I was trying to make was that Agility Trains ultimately exists thanks to Hitachi. And indeed Hitachi do still own a stake of Agility Trains albeit not a majority anymore.

It wouldn’t have been any better from any other manufacturer thanks to the government’s incompetence in specifying such a contract in the first place. But we can’t deny that Hitachi have ripped off the Government and by extension the taxpayer with this contract.
 

LNW-GW Joint

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It wouldn’t have been any better from any other manufacturer thanks to the government’s incompetence in specifying such a contract in the first place. But we can’t deny that Hitachi have ripped off the Government and by extension the taxpayer with this contract.
The cracking problem on 80x means that Hitachi ripped themselves off.
Otherwise, HMG (via the TOCs) would have been liable for all the problems.
It's also a free market - you win some, you lose some, based on the business risks you take.
Not all Roscos made a killing on all trains.
I expect the HS2 stock will be on a similar contract to IEP.

It hasn't turned out too well for Vivarail, either.
 

paul1609

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so the government deciding to curtail the electrification in the southwest means that LNER is now paying more for trains in the northeast?

That does sound like a failure to me. Though I guess the main failure is surrounding GWEP
Realistically GWEP ran out of money at 500% original budget and that didn't take in to account the unfunded resignalling of the Bristol Temple Meads area and unfunded rebuilding of Oxford station that were needed before electrification took place.
By any project management standards the government was extremely generous in letting it run until 500%.
 

Trainbike46

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Realistically GWEP ran out of money at 500% original budget and that didn't take in to account the unfunded resignalling of the Bristol Temple Meads area and unfunded rebuilding of Oxford station that were needed before electrification took place.
By any project management standards the government was extremely generous in letting it run until 500%.
Yes, I understand there were significant problems with the GWEP. Hence I think it is fair to describe it as the main failure (way more spend than planned, way less delivered than planned, and knock-on consequences on rolling stock orders)
 

DanNCL

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The cracking problem on 80x means that Hitachi ripped themselves off.
Otherwise, HMG (via the TOCs) would have been liable for all the problems.
It's also a free market - you win some, you lose some, based on the business risks you take.
Not all Roscos made a killing on all trains.
I expect the HS2 stock will be on a similar contract to IEP.

It hasn't turned out too well for Vivarail, either.
Hitachi would have lost a significant amount of money regardless of the leasing arrangements as any sensible contract will include a warranty that’ll have put the liability for design issues such as cracks firmly on the manufacturer.
 

tbtc

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we can’t deny that Hitachi have ripped off the Government and by extension the taxpayer with this contract.

Not sure it’s that simple

The government agreed terms with hitatchi, without anyone holding a gun to anyone’s head

The Government (aka Network Rail) ‘a problems delivering the pledged CP5 electrification commitments meant that the Government had to seek new terms (more running on diesel etc)

It’s the same with many tales of public sector procurement - you have a budget to deliver so much but the goalposts move and you find there are other things that are desirable to include, or that become necessary)

In hindsight it seems obvious that you need to get platform layouts / signalling etc resolved before it’s worth sticking wires up, because otherwise you’re creating further problems (and the need to take down wires to adjust platforms makes everything more expensive again)

However, for whatever reason, we rushed into trying to deliver everything without understanding what that’d cost (seems to be entirely between various bits of public sector from what I can see, Network Rail/ DfT/ Treasury etc), burned through the budget and kept going, then acted surprised when other posts of the government decided that the overspend meant there was no money for things like the MML electrification and “paused” / cancelled then

I think that most firms would have done what Hitachi did, given the way that the government needed them to deliver a lot more than the initial specification had insisted on

The lessons to learn are that:

You need to be very clear from the start about what is in scope/ out of scope (because once a project starts, there’s always someone wanting to expand the remit, in the way that a plumber might be called out to fix a leaking kitchen tap but once they are in the house the homeowner tries to get them to look into a problem flushing the toilet…) - you need to be clear about what you are demanding beforehand

You therefore need to review things before contractors put their boots on. Otherwise you’ll be surprised by ground conditions/ flood defences/ the crumbling walls inside a tunnel/ how poor the record keeping was last time the line was renewed. These problems become much more complicated to “fix” part way through a project (because they weren’t budgeted for)

Be honest about the set up costs that you need to cover. IET liked a horribly expensive project, but once the innovation costs had been paid for, it’s enabled Hitatchi to win contracts for hundreds of carriages of 802/ 803/ 805/ 807/ 810s, beyond the initial delivery of 800/801s promised. So it looks like a good product, but one where the development costs for a 125mph electric train that could also do 100mph on diesel mode needed to be paid for by someone in order to make it happen. Whereas the high costs of the New Bus 4 London (aka “Borismaster”) seems a bit off a disaster because only TfL have ordered them, and the high capacity urban vehicles don’t look attractive for routes in other big cities.
 

bib

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The ORR finance page has some interesting data, it looks like the LNER revenue/passenger km has dropped by ~30% in the last few years which would indicate they have dropped their prices. I wonder if it is due to Lumo competition or the OLR taking over from VTEC

1669976199247.png1669976227052.png
 

HSTEd

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The ORR finance page has some interesting data, it looks like the LNER revenue/passenger km has dropped by ~30% in the last few years which would indicate they have dropped their prices. I wonder if it is due to Lumo competition or the OLR taking over from VTEC
Or just that the relative demand for their different products has changed such that it has reduced the amount of money they get for each passenger kilometre.
 

paul1609

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Interesting that LNER get 3p per pkm less than Caledonian Sleeper in the latest figures, really rather suggests that the LNER firebox has dropped through the floor.
 

Watershed

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The ORR finance page has some interesting data, it looks like the LNER revenue/passenger km has dropped by ~30% in the last few years which would indicate they have dropped their prices. I wonder if it is due to Lumo competition or the OLR taking over from VTEC

View attachment 124656View attachment 124657
It's not necessarily them dropping their prices, though I imagine this may have happened to some extent between Edinburgh/Newcastle and London due to competition from Lumo. I imagine most of it will be down to the huge increase in leisure travel and decrease business travel, which means more people buying Off-Peak or Super Off-Peak tickets, or Advances whose price is effectively capped by the price of these fares.

This is why LNER, amongst other TOCs, are so keen for fares regulation to be removed. It would allow them to significantly hike their fares at times that are busy but Off-Peak or Super Off-Peak tickets are valid (for instance, Sunday afternoons).
 

Trainbike46

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It's not necessarily them dropping their prices, though I imagine this may have happened to some extent between Edinburgh/Newcastle and London due to competition from Lumo. I imagine most of it will be down to the huge increase in leisure travel and decrease business travel, which means more people buying Off-Peak or Super Off-Peak tickets, or Advances whose price is effectively capped by the price of these fares.

This is why LNER, amongst other TOCs, are so keen for fares regulation to be removed. It would allow them to significantly hike their fares at times that are busy but Off-Peak or Super Off-Peak tickets are valid (for instance, Sunday afternoons).
I would suspect fewer first class and more standard class tickets may also have played a role here. And LNER's own website now offering split ticketing may have contributed too.
 

AlastairFraser

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My understanding is that the cost of the Hitachi/IEP contract is the main reason that LNER are likely to go elsewhere for new units to replace the 91s/Mk4s....
There's some nice 350s coming off lease, uprate them and job's a good 'un :lol: :lol:
 

HullRailMan

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I would suspect fewer first class and more standard class tickets may also have played a role here. And LNER's own website now offering split ticketing may have contributed too.
And even when first is full, it’s mainly advance fares rather than expensive open tickets. Even if bums on seats are the same, a shift from open to advance/off peak fares will really dent their average revenue. It’s much to simple to cite Lumo as the reason behind it given it’s only a handful of trains competing on part of one route.
 

800001

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And even when first is full, it’s mainly advance fares rather than expensive open tickets. Even if bums on seats are the same, a shift from open to advance/off peak fares will really dent their average revenue. It’s much to simple to cite Lumo as the reason behind it given it’s only a handful of trains competing on part of one route.
LNER at times are running at 105-110% or passengers numbers from pre covid.

But as mentioned above the revenue they get from those tickets is only at about 80-85%, due to more people travelling on off peak or advance tickets.
 

greyman42

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The early morning trains into Kings Cross do not appear to be as busy as they used to be, and the late afternoon departures are the same.
The 1600 to Aberdeen used to be packed and you would struggle to get a seat without a reservation. Now it never seems that busy.
 

Nicholas Lewis

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DfT has published an update of payments to TOCs today although only to end of July so not really much use but it did show that by July it only needed 1.6m in support so my guess would be that it has been making a modest contribution since then given my experience of pretty full trains when ive used them since October even mid week.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...ger-rail-operators-under-emergency-agreements
 

plymothian

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LNER at times are running at 105-110% or passengers numbers from pre covid.

But as mentioned above the revenue they get from those tickets is only at about 80-85%, due to more people travelling on off peak or advance tickets.

How many of them are displaced from West Coast?
 

Hadders

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It's not necessarily them dropping their prices, though I imagine this may have happened to some extent between Edinburgh/Newcastle and London due to competition from Lumo. I imagine most of it will be down to the huge increase in leisure travel and decrease business travel, which means more people buying Off-Peak or Super Off-Peak tickets, or Advances whose price is effectively capped by the price of these fares.

This is why LNER, amongst other TOCs, are so keen for fares regulation to be removed. It would allow them to significantly hike their fares at times that are busy but Off-Peak or Super Off-Peak tickets are valid (for instance, Sunday afternoons).
This is spot on. I haven't seen any reduction in prices on LNER, quite the opposite in fact.

The real watch out here is fares regulation which caps the price of leisure travel on long distance services. DfT/RDG/TOCs would love this to be removed, they would call it simplification and say it's what passengers want. They will even claim there will be lots of cheap Advance tickets for leisure travel (there will be for a short period of time and then they will slowly be withdrawn). Then watch the price of leisure journeys at popular times absolutely sky rocket.
 

Parallel

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The ORR finance page has some interesting data, it looks like the LNER revenue/passenger km has dropped by ~30% in the last few years which would indicate they have dropped their prices. I wonder if it is due to Lumo competition or the OLR taking over from VTEC

View attachment 124656View attachment 124657
I think GWR are likely to have been higher on this 2021/2022 list if they hadn’t lost most of their services on the relief lines in/out of Paddington to TfL.
 
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