How much capacity would ETCS add to Colwich Junction?

[Nottingham59]

When HS2 opens to Handsacre in four to eight years time, Colwich Junction will become a major bottleneck on the WCML. Current capacity is limited to around 10tph, caused by multiple conflicts and the mix of freight, stopping passenger and fast passenger trains.

But Network Rail says that

"Moving to the ETCS will allow trains to run closer together and travel at their best speeds while maintaining safe braking distances. Alongside the traffic management programme, we’ll greatly increase the capacity on our network by maximising the throughput that our existing track can support."

So how many more paths could Colwich handle with ETCS controlling trains? And would it be feasible to implement ETCS bewteen say Handsacre Junction and Norton Bridge in the time available before HS2 phase 1 opens?

Ref: https://www.networkrail.co.uk/running-the-railway/looking-after-the-railway/signalling/

 

[The Planner]

Very few, if any, in the case of Colwich. The headway is already 3 minutes, and the approach control penalty for diverging trains on the down is as small as it can get (½ minute). That area of the WCML has at least 20 years left before its signaling gets looked at. Stafford and Norton Bridge is 10 years old, so even longer.

 

[MarkyT]

Very few, if any, in the case of Colwich. The headway is already 3 minutes, and the approach control penalty for diverging trains on the down is as small as it can get (½ minute).

Due to the flashing yellow sequence.

That area of the WCML has at least 20 years left before its signaling gets looked at. Stafford and Norton Bridge is 10 years old, so even longer.

On plain track, 4-aspect can deliver technical headways under 90 seconds as long as everything is moving at the same speed the signalling is optimised for. ETCS is unlikely to improve on this radically but can improve throughput a bit around stations and slower junction divergences where approach release from red is employed today.