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How many seats will the Conservatives end up with?

How many seats with the Tories win?

  • 0-50

    Votes: 7 4.9%
  • 50-75

    Votes: 14 9.7%
  • 75-100

    Votes: 43 29.9%
  • 100-125

    Votes: 40 27.8%
  • 125-150

    Votes: 25 17.4%
  • 150-200

    Votes: 13 9.0%
  • Over 200

    Votes: 2 1.4%

  • Total voters
    144
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dosxuk

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pre-election polling usually under estimates the actual Tory vote, no reason to think this will be any different

Key differences in this election are the apathy for voting Tory from their core-supporters, the changes in ID requirements having a bigger impact amongst those same supporters, and the wider use of MRP polling - which has as one of it's aims to reduce the "shy Tory" effect.

The Tories are fighting a two-front battle this time, they need to convince the swing-voters (who are the normal shy-Tories) to vote for them, and they need to convince their core to actually bother going to vote.
 
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edwin_m

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Key differences in this election are the apathy for voting Tory from their core-supporters, the changes in ID requirements having a bigger impact amongst those same supporters, and the wider use of MRP polling - which has as one of it's aims to reduce the "shy Tory" effect.

The Tories are fighting a two-front battle this time, they need to convince the swing-voters (who are the normal shy-Tories) to vote for them, and they need to convince their core to actually bother going to vote.
MRP is still fairly new and probably has some way to go over the next few elections before it as as good as it can be. Also, specifically for this election, the big changes in party support since 2019 make it difficult to use the results then as a factor in determining what might happen next week. And many of the predicted Tory wins and losses are by very small margins, so the total is very sensitive to small changes in support either nationally or regionally, which is probably one of the main factors accounting for the wide variation in seat numbers between different MPRs. Also MRP can't allow for local factors such as a particularly liked or disliked candidate.
 

nw1

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I suspect a low turnout, especially if it's bad weather on the day.

If that happens I suspect that will be worse for the Tories as there are probably more people who lean strongly anti-Tory than strongly pro-Tory,
 

contrex

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I think the rise of Reform will have a devastating impact on the Conservatives which I think others aren’t giving enough credit for. Not because they win seats from them, but they split Conservative voters down the middle allowing Labour, Lib Dem or Green voters to vote tactically and win the seat
I think people who (as I am tempted to) chuckle at the Tories' discomfiture at having their vote split should think again about what they would be condoning, and think about a certain Weimar Republic.
 

edwin_m

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I think people who (as I am tempted to) chuckle at the Tories' discomfiture at having their vote split should think again about what they would be condoning, and think about a certain Weimar Republic.
I think I agree. I'd actually prefer the Tories to end up with a few more seats than for Reform to get more votes.
 

Bevan Price

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In some previous elections there has been a swing back to the "retiring" government on election day that was not picked up by opinion polls. I am unsure how many seats the Tories will get, but it would not surprise me if Labour got an overall majority of no more than 30 to 50, and possibly as low as 20. .
 

Cowley

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In some previous elections there has been a swing back to the "retiring" government on election day that was not picked up by opinion polls. I am unsure how many seats the Tories will get, but it would not surprise me if Labour got an overall majority of no more than 30 to 50, and possibly as low as 20. .

I think if that ends up being the case (and I’m not suggesting that you’re wrong for putting that possibility forward by the way), then all of the polling companies are going to have to completely rethink how they do things going forward.

Personally I think (and hope) that they’ve learned things from previous mistakes and from what I’ve seen they seem to take more factors into account than they were doing 5-10 years ago.

It’s going to be interesting though!
 

Busaholic

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I think I agree. I'd actually prefer the Tories to end up with a few more seats than for Reform to get more votes.
Tory MPs I wouldn't mind keeping their seats would be Robert Buckland, David Davis and Tobias Ellwood. Now that Tracey Crouch has stood down, I can't offer any female names.
 

AlterEgo

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In some previous elections there has been a swing back to the "retiring" government on election day that was not picked up by opinion polls. I am unsure how many seats the Tories will get, but it would not surprise me if Labour got an overall majority of no more than 30 to 50, and possibly as low as 20. .
Labour will get a majority of some 100-150 seats or more, the current government is totally cooked in a way no government in my lifetime has been before. It’s entirely cannibalised itself - and shed a lot of old talent after Boris’ purge - and a significant share of its vote has gone to a dumpster fire of a party which will win three or four seats.

Rwanda and trans are the two salient issues on why the government is so done. Both these policy areas are rooted in “the cruelty is the point” and pandering to acceptable forms of bigotry. Yet, even with their policies rooted in such miserable origins, they have totally failed to actually implement anything at all to exact their pathetic wrath on asylum seekers or transgender people. All they do is complain all the time, with a huge majority.

You are the government. Do something if you want. But no - just more moping about how difficult things are while the country absolutely craps itself empty with the lack of investment and stagnation in wages. A vast amount of parliamentary time has been taken up by Brexit which itself has been harmful to our prospects of recovery - the government made Brexit its flagship project. Brexit is not even popular any more.

No, the Tories are completely done for.
 

nw1

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Tory MPs I wouldn't mind keeping their seats would be Robert Buckland, David Davis and Tobias Ellwood. Now that Tracey Crouch has stood down, I can't offer any female names.

Of those, David Davis seems the most likely to hold his seat, at a guess.

A shame Tobias Ellwood didn't relocate to adjoining Christchurch. He'd certainly be an improvement on the incumbent.

== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: ==

I think if that ends up being the case (and I’m not suggesting that you’re wrong for putting that possibility forward by the way), then all of the polling companies are going to have to completely rethink how they do things going forward.

Personally I think (and hope) that they’ve learned things from previous mistakes and from what I’ve seen they seem to take more factors into account than they were doing 5-10 years ago.

It’s going to be interesting though!

I would be surprised to see a Labour majority of 20-50, but I still think the opinion polls are underestimating the Tory vote. As I said the Polling Report link (190 Tory seats) shared by @AlterEgo seems to align with what I would expect on a seat-by-seat basis. There were a small number of surprise Tory holds there, which is why I think nearer 180.

Even that includes a demoggisation and Shapps losing his seat.
 
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nlogax

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I'm thinking 115-120 seats. That's maybe a little more than I would have said a few days ago. There'll be some sympathy with Sunak after the unsurprisingly awful comments from that Reform campaigner earlier this week.
 

317 forever

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As I predicted exactly 200 seats about 3 weeks ago I have voted here accordingly.

I think a combo of more undecideds being 2019 Conservative voters, together with a degree of reluctance to vote for Reform after all, will salvage plenty of current Conservative seats compared to many recent polls.
 

Whistler40145

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Hoping as little as possible, I'd rather have the Lib Dems as the official opposition, the Tories don't deserve to do well
 

Busaholic

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143, final answer, including Richmond and Northallerton plus Clacton (please God).
 

Kaliwax

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I hope some of the one nation tory members might vote for Liberal Dems this time around or Labour, will that make a difference at all?
 

StoneRoad

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I think there's going to be a significant level of tactical voting ...

The tories have somewhat shot themselves in the foot with quite a few of their policies.

Things like changes to NI contributions, which was trumpeted as a tax cut. Well, most people were not better off, simply because there wasn't a corresponding increase in the personal tax allowance. The latter has also scooped up a lot of low paid / pensioners into the tax net ...

Personally, I can't make up my mind - I shall be very happy with the demise of people like rees-smug getting t'boot and reform splitting the tory vote in other places.
Polling suggests under 100 seats and libdems close to having more seats ...
 

Oxfordblues

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Less than 50 in my view. Purely subjective of course, but I predict the Lib-Dems will outnumber the Tories and become the official Opposition party.
 
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