How many seats will the Conservatives end up with?

[AlterEgo]

As the title says. Have a punt!

I’m going for a conservative (!) estimate of 121 seats.

 

[PGAT]

54. Just a hunch

 

[rapmastaj]

Can we tempt any MPs to bet on this?

 

[185]

Please don't have a punt. This ended badly for a number of politicians.

 

[cactustwirly]

I don't believe the polls, there are a hell of a lot of undecided voters and I bet those seat projections are so close it's within the margin of error.

Tony Blair got his majority in 1997 with a bigger share of the vote than what Kier Starmer is polling, and Labour are so behind from their woeful performance last year.

Lots of constituencies have had their boundaries altered which favour the conservatives slightly

 

[Sorcerer]

I'm going to give them more credit than the polls and predict roughly around the 120-140 seats mark. I just cannot see the Conservative Party dropping to such an abysmal level of sub-100 after a good 80-seat majority from 2019. It would be unprecedented even for this dumpster bonfire of a party.

 

[Gloster]

I really have no idea, but almost certainly under 200 and probably under 150 unless something very unusual happens in the next week. There are too many variables, what with new boundaries, new parties, voter ID, Tic-toc influencers, etc. There are also, in my opinion, a lot of shy voters: people who aren’t giving true answers about their voting intentions. And of course you have Labour’s traditional ability to shoot itself in the foot.

One thing I do think will happen is that there will be some surprising losses, not just by the Conservatives, because of all the wild candidates. I feel the one to pity will be Lindsay Hoyle who is likely to find that he has to try and keep a group of undisciplined grifters and monomaniacs in order.

 

[jfollows]

Between 75 and 125, and I keep changing my mind on whether it will be more or less than 100, currently I’m on “less”.

 

[PGAT]

I think the rise of Reform will have a devastating impact on the Conservatives which I think others aren’t giving enough credit for. Not because they win seats from them, but they split Conservative voters down the middle allowing Labour, Lib Dem or Green voters to vote tactically and win the seat

 

[Requeststop]

I was going to have a shot of Vodka for every seat the Tories loose but as the campaign had dragged on I'm changing that to a shot every 30 seats lost. I might crack open a bottle of Champaign if Sunak looses his seat and that prime A*se Rees-Mogg fails to get back to Parliament. There are a couple other Tories I'd celebrate with a glass of bubbly if they get kicked out.
I voted 75 -100. Hope it's lower.

 

[Kaliwax]

I personally think Reform will do a bit of damage in getting the far right vote and split the vote. I also think people who are one nation tories or people on the centre, will either vote Labour or Liberal Democrats. But I do think the tories have supporters who will vote for them no matter what they do, as there is a lot of stubborn people, and people who always voted Conservative as part of their family. I also think some people might get cold turkey with Reform and go back to voting Tory.

I predict 75-100 seats

 

[ainsworth74]

Worse than 1997 so under 150 but I don't think they'll end up in total wipe out territory sadly so I'm opting for 125 - 150

 

[D1537]

A few more than the polls suggest, I reckon. I clicked 125-150, and I'm going for 146.

 

[SteveP29]

I was going to have a shot of Vodka for every seat the Tories loose

I had that idea too but then I realised that I'd likely end up in hospital with alcohol poisoning

 

[birchesgreen]

I had a dream a few week ago where they won 117.

Though i did have a later dream where they were fighting it out with the SNP for third place. But i'll stick to 117.

 

[Trackman]

Going for 150-200, Tory faithful may turn out, which they generally do at GE's.

 

[Cowley]

I’ve gone 125-150. I just can’t see them getting less than that and I actually think it’ll be around 145 ish.

 

[Kaliwax]

I wouldn't mind a tory taking Lee Anderson's seat, that would be nice. You can't get any worse than him.

 

[AlterEgo]

Looking forward to Johnny Mercer losing his seat, but Plymouth Moor View looks extremely tight according to this: https://pollingreport.uk/seats/E14000879

 

[GRALISTAIR]

I’ve gone 125-150. I just can’t see them getting less than that and I actually think it’ll be around 145 ish.

Not a bad shout.

 

[hst43102]

I'm going to have a guess at 109. I don't quite believe the polls saying they will win under 75, but I don't see it being a lot higher either.

 

[Busaholic]

I'm going 138-146. Reform's following has dwindled somewhat since Farage confirmed he's still a fan of Putin, and I'm now doubting they'll get more than 2 or 3 seats.

 

[DarloRich]

Looking forward to Johnny Mercer losing his seat, but Plymouth Moor View looks extremely tight according to this: https://pollingreport.uk/seats/E14000879

Electoral Calculus have that down for a Reform gain!

 

[Ostrich]

My heart hopes 75-100 but my head tells me it'll probably be 125-150 (my vote).

I get the feeling Reform won't acheive anything like they've been hyped to acheive, and additionally I sense there's no real appetite for Labour.
I suspect a low turnout, especially if it's bad weather on the day.

 

[3141]

My guess is 100-125. As for what that's based on, well.........!

 

[nw1]

I went for 150-200.

I can't help thinking that some of the predictions are underestimating the Tory vote. The shy Tory factor again, perhaps, plus people deciding they're scared of Labour taxes that may or may not exist at the last minute.


== Doublepost prevention - post automatically merged: 28 Jun 2024 ==

Looking forward to Johnny Mercer losing his seat, but Plymouth Moor View looks extremely tight according to this: https://pollingreport.uk/seats/E14000879

Polling Report looks more in line with what I would predict compared to the aggregator (on the other thread) consensus. For example both IoW seats Con, but Earley and Woodley Lab.

Looking at their results as a whole, I'd say they look pretty much what I would expect, perhaps over-estimating the Tories by about 5 to 10. So I'll say 183 Tory seats.

A lot of close seats too, which is another reason why I went a bit high on the Con total.

 

[jfollows]

Electoral Calculus today (https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/prediction_main.html) has

Prediction: Con 65, Lab 465, Lib Dem 71, SNP 18, Reform 6, Labour majority of 280​

Something of an outlier amongst polls.
It says

Since our previous update, the Conservatives have gained 1pc in the polls, and Reform have lost 3pc. Labour's lead over the Conservatives is now 19pc. For the first time, the Liberal Democrats are predicted to win slightly more seats than the Conservatives, and we also predict that Reform will win half-a-dozen seats.


This prediction is slightly different to our recent MRP poll. This because public opinion has moved in the last few days, and our predictions are calibrated to the most recent polling. The changes to Reform and Conservative vote shares have changed the seat predictions. We have also improved our MRP weighting for seat-level factors to make more accurate predictions.

 

[birchesgreen]

Such a result would be fascinating, the opposition need around 150 MPs to fulful all the shadow minster positions and committees so there would have to be some interesting co-operation.

 

[gg1]

Voted for 150-200, though more likely to be the lower half of that range. I'd find it hilarious if they ended up with less than 100 sets but pre-election polling usually under estimates the actual Tory vote, no reason to think this will be any different

 

[AlterEgo]

Electoral Calculus has been the outlier in all the bonkers polling companies; I am inclined to disregard anything they come out with.

There is such a slim chance the Lib Dems come out as the official opposition that I am not even thinking about it.