How I've learned that certainty is the thing to really fear (article)

[Railwaycat]

Very interesting, and not in a good way, article on BBC In Depth by Nicky Campbell:

How I've learned that certainty is the thing to really fear

After five decades hosting radio phone-ins and debates, Nicky Campbell reflects on the state of public debate

www.bbc.co.uk

"The tone has always been feisty and combative, but in recent years it seems to me like opinion has ossified, weaponised, and tribalised. There's a growing fear (among political scientists and others) that in our modern, social media-driven world, every issue is reduced to a zero-sum game and shoved into a political tick box. I feel that I'm walking on eggshells. Causes and positions are embraced uncritically. Nuance and understanding are viewed as signs of weakness. Either you're with us, or you are history."

I think we can see this with Reform and Trump, and it's not good.

 

[181]

I think we can see this with Reform and Trump, and it's not good.

Indeed, but the right doesn't have a monopoly on such intolerance; as someone whose views tend to be mildly left of centre, I find it in some ways worse when it comes from people who I might expect to be on my side against the Trump/Reform tendency.

 

[Railwaycat]

Indeed, but the right doesn't have a monopoly on such intolerance; as someone whose views tend to be mildly left of centre, I find it in some ways worse when it comes from people who I might expect to be on my side against the Trump/Reform tendency.

Of course not, and I think I'm guilty of this myself, being quite far left of centre (my wife certainly thinks I am).

 

[brad465]

It's not just social media, but specifically their algorithms. Around the 2010 period social media was relatively good (not perfect, but nothing ever is), as everyone saw what their friends/followers were doing as they happened. Now users are bombarded with recommended content that feeds their interests and effectively traps them into the echo chambers outlined, while keeping other views/interests away.

Part of me wishes the Cloudflare outage last year lasted a lot longer than it did, such as a week at least. Then maybe everyone would get off the affected platforms and see the wider world.

 

[edwin_m]

This piece from the BBC is one of the best I've seen in a while. Whether from fundamentalism of whatever religion, politics or lack of exposure to contrary views, people who are certain they are correct make it very difficult for society to function.

Facts should be agreed but anything inferred from them is an opinion that might need to change.

 

[Purple Train]

Indeed, but the right doesn't have a monopoly on such intolerance; as someone whose views tend to be mildly left of centre, I find it in some ways worse when it comes from people who I might expect to be on my side against the Trump/Reform tendency.

Agreed.

 

[Bletchleyite]

One big problem here is that in the polarised world we've ended up with everyone hates a moderate.

For instance, if you think immigration can be a good or bad thing and should be carefully managed and controlled, both the left and right seem to hate you.

Similarly if you seek compromise over where trans rights and religious rights impact upon womens' rights, which they often do.

Or if you think the EU is broadly a good thing but also has some major problems with it (e.g. the Fourth Railway Package which appears to be basically repeating the UK's failed privatisation model! ).

It's not a nice situation. It's like we have to pretend liberal paradoxes (conflicts between the rights of different groups, basically) don't exist.

 

[The exile]

One big problem here is that in the polarised world we've ended up with everyone hates a moderate.

For instance, if you think immigration can be a good or bad thing and should be carefully managed and controlled, both the left and right seem to hate you.

Similarly if you seek compromise over where trans rights and religious rights impact upon womens' rights, which they often do.

Or if you think the EU is broadly a good thing but also has some major problems with it (e.g. the Fourth Railway Package which appears to be basically repeating the UK's failed privatisation model! ).

It's not a nice situation. It's like we have to pretend liberal paradoxes (conflicts between the rights of different groups, basically) don't exist.

Indeed - compounded by the fact that in the brave new world of Social Media, disagreeing with someone is equated with hating them. In the real world not even being angry with someone about something is the same as hating. “I hate you” is the cry of a petulant 6-year old (other ages are available) - which probably just about sums it up.

 

[Bletchleyite]

Indeed - compounded by the fact that in the brave new world of Social Media, disagreeing with someone is equated with hating them. In the real world not even being angry with someone about something is the same as hating. “I hate you” is the cry of a petulant 6-year old (other ages are available) - which probably just about sums it up.

The number of people on X who just hit "block" when someone disagrees with them is sometimes downright bizarre. By all means block people being rude, but disagreeing?

 

[3141]

One big problem here is that in the polarised world we've ended up with everyone hates a moderate.

For instance, if you think immigration can be a good or bad thing and should be carefully managed and controlled, both the left and right seem to hate you.

Similarly if you seek compromise over where trans rights and religious rights impact upon womens' rights, which they often do.

Or if you think the EU is broadly a good thing but also has some major problems with it (e.g. the Fourth Railway Package which appears to be basically repeating the UK's failed privatisation model! ).

It's not a nice situation. It's like we have to pretend liberal paradoxes (conflicts between the rights of different groups, basically) don't exist.

Yes. And as you've indicated, it's not only the right wing that propounds its certainties (as the original article notes), but also those at the other end of the spectrum, insisting that we all ought to follow the line they take over each issue.

In fact, these opposed opinions are one of the reasons why views become so entrenched and intolerant. People in earlier times (not so long ago) would just have accepted that someone else thinks differently but now feel threatened by the fierceness of how the other views are expressed, and feel a need to express their positions in a similar way.

I wonder, though, whether there are other factors. Do (most) human beings have a need for certainty, such as in the past was met by religion? Has the pace of change over the past forty years or so made life so much more uncertain that people now look to extreme attitudes in the hope that these will somehow make life more comforting? It's also the case that immigration - of all kinds, not simply those from Africa or Asia - has produced a different sort of society, which may be less readily tolerant of a range of different opinions.

 

[brad465]

I wonder, though, whether there are other factors. Do (most) human beings have a need for certainty, such as in the past was met by religion? Has the pace of change over the past forty years or so made life so much more uncertain that people now look to extreme attitudes in the hope that these will somehow make life more comforting? It's also the case that immigration - of all kinds, not simply those from Africa or Asia - has produced a different sort of society, which may be less readily tolerant of a range of different opinions.

This is an under-researched/discussed area. I'm reminded of Brooks in The Shawshank Redemption saying after serving 50 years, "I saw an automobile once, now they're everywhere" as part of his struggle to adapt to post-prison life which led to him hanging himself. His 50 years transcended two world wars, the rise of automobiles and other tech advances. If someone was released from prison today after 50 years, they'd be overwhelmed by computers, smart phones, social media, AI tools, glass skyscrapers, neon lights and who knows how much else.

I also wonder if the prevalence of neurodiverse conditions has become more stark not just because of increased awareness and ability to recognise symptoms, but because neurodiverse people are more vulnerable to rapid changes in society. Perhaps the best way to support them, and in turn the rest of society, is for the world to slow down a bit.

 

[3141]

I'd be very happy if the world slowed down a bit, but I don't think it's at all likely - unless Donald Trump provokes a catastrophe, in which case we'd exchange one unwelcome set of circumstances for another, in many ways worse.

It's not only those with neurodiverse condition who may be reflecting the current pressures. There is reported to be a substantial level of mental illness among young people. While I think that experiencing difficulties can be confused with mental illness, the issue, one way or the other, may again be the result of rapid change, leaving young people feeling vulnerable and uncertain as to where they may be going, and whether, by the time they get there, the goal posts will have shifted. Anything that seems to offer certainty may be very attractive, and those who find that attractive may fiercely oppose any alternative viewpoint that potentially threatens the certainty they believe they've found.

 

[Merle Haggard]

It seems to me that when you want 'certainty' that implies you want perfection.

In my opinion, the world would be very boring if it and everything in it was perfect. Think about it; in the railway world, there would be no unusual traction because of a shortage of the planned stock or a failure, no interest in hanging around to see what just turns up. You would never meet anybody unexpectedly and strike up a conversation - which is often how, in my experience, one finds new friends. Everyone would look identical (obviously perfection) and have no faults - but no interesting, entertaining 'quirks' either. You would have none of the usual problems (weather, train punctuality) to talk about and certainly never have anything to complain about.

I think there's a Japanese saying warning about then achievement of perfection but I can't recall it.

 

[GusB]

From Campbell's article:

And there's another phenomenon that has been termed "complexity phobia": the aversion to recognising incontrovertible evidence and facts if they challenge a more comfortable and comforting narrative.

This somewhat ties into the "we're fed up with experts" narrative that was used during the EU referendum campaign. While the ballot paper asked us to leave or remain, the issue at hand wasn't really a simple binary choice. I'd say that the Scottish independence referendum was much the same; there was no "third way" on offer.

Has the pace of change over the past forty years or so made life so much more uncertain that people now look to extreme attitudes in the hope that these will somehow make life more comforting?

The pace of change has made life more uncertain and people look for something or someone to blame. I'm now in my early 50s and almost every job I've done has been replaced by some sort of automation. I've been out of the workforce for a while due to personal circumstances and now that I'm looking to get back into it, my feeling is that everything has suddenly changed. The stock answer is that I need to update my skills and re-equip myself for whatever comes next, but it's not always that easy.

It's not only those with neurodiverse condition who may be reflecting the current pressures. There is reported to be a substantial level of mental illness among young people. While I think that experiencing difficulties can be confused with mental illness, the issue, one way or the other, may again be the result of rapid change, leaving young people feeling vulnerable and uncertain as to where they may be going, and whether, by the time they get there, the goal posts will have shifted. Anything that seems to offer certainty may be very attractive, and those who find that attractive may fiercely oppose any alternative viewpoint that potentially threatens the certainty they believe they've found.

It's not just young people, those who are neurodivergent or have mental illness who feel that the goalposts have been shifted. You're right in that anything that seems to offer certainty may be attractive, but that's where the danger lies. We need to be promoting life-long education and it should, in my opinion, be state funded; the state will ultimately benefit from that investment.

The number of people on X who just hit "block" when someone disagrees with them is sometimes downright bizarre. By all means block people being rude, but disagreeing?

I'm as guilty of this as anyone else. I had a good friend who I blocked after she posted some stuff on Facebook after the murder of Lee Rigby and I couldn't stand the anti-Islamic posts. I wish I'd had a chat about it rather than hitting the block button.