How could rail capacity to Gatwick Airport be increased?

[Magdalia]

What is rail's modal share between London and Gatwick?

There isn't a direct answer to that, but we do know that Greater London is about 14 million passenger journeys at Gatwick, about 40 per cent of the total.

The South East region is about the same, leaving about 7 million from further away. Most of the South East total is Kent, Surrey, East Sussex and West Sussex, which are all 2.5-2.7m each.

Most of the rest is likely coaches, which are also public transport.

For Gatwick coaches are only 5%, much lower than Luton (21%) or Stansted (18%).

Coach travel looks like a good way to expand the public transport share at Gatwick.

But rail is highly likely to already have a massive percentage of the London/Croydon to Gatwick market.

As the airport expands, rail has to capture the same or higher share of the new London traffic, by expanding rail capacity. If that doesn't happen the rail share will be going backwards.

 

[DelW]

For more Gatwick passengers from the west to use rail, the NDL's recent performance will need to be considerably improved (ref post 99 in this thread):

Yet Another Dire Day On The North Downs Line

So, the North Downs Line closure has been in force for a week now, with no further comment here - can we assume that the arrangements are running smoothly? I was only at work for two days this week (Mon + Tue) it went well apart from Monday moving the driver had been given the incorrect route...

www.railforums.co.uk

Quote therefrom:

GWR have released latest 4 weeks performance data
EF09 (North Downs Route) has massive 11.2% (over 1 in 9) trains cancelled
Of the trains that ran, less than half (48.2%) were on time.

That standard of performance puts many people's flight connections at risk unless they build a lot of extra time into their travel plans.

The London-centric investment bias and the ORR anti -third rail hysteria mean that the tadpole mentality will continue to triumph on the NDL.

WAO

(Pedant alert) I appreciate the allusion, but didn't the long-gone (but not yet forgotten) Tadpoles run to Tonbridge rather than Gatwick? Or did the eastern destination change before they were replaced by the WR DMUs?

 

[JonathanH]

(Pedant alert) I appreciate the allusion, but didn't the long-gone (but not yet forgotten) Tadpoles run to Tonbridge rather than Gatwick? Or did the eastern destination change before they were replaced by the WR DMUs?

The eastern destination remained Tonbridge when the WR DMUs took over in 1979, but in 1980 the hourly service to Gatwick was added.

 

[Bald Rick]

The wizard solution of battery drives does not impress.

A solution that is already working well on three different railways in this country… why does it not impress? It will be the perfect solution for the North Downs, and will happen.

 

[WAO]

A solution that is already working well on three different railways in this country… why does it not impress? It will be the perfect solution for the North Downs, and will happen.

Because 53 years of experience of this service (we used to call it the "Trans-Siberian", when the "tadpoles", 1.5 coach trains, ran all stations, Reading to Tonbridge) has shown that it will always be under-provided. It gets rolling stock that "will do".

I would be impressed if we could have standard 4- or 8- car sets running with batteries providing the capacity and reliability for peaks and growth. They would not be transporting daytime fresh air any more than other DC stock. Would such a specialised micro-fleet be likely?

I reckon it'll be 756's. Prepare to stand.

WAO

 

[Magdalia]

I would be impressed if we could have standard 4- or 8- car sets running with batteries providing the capacity and reliability for peaks and growth. They would not be transporting daytime fresh air any more than other DC stock. Would such a specialised micro-fleet be likely?

I reckon it'll be 756's. Prepare to stand.

EMU/battery bimodes are the way forward, especially if it is possible to have the same basic design with AC and DC configurations.

With a modular approach there can also be different interior configurations. There could then be a separate airport interior which could be used on DC trains at Gatwick and AC trains at Stansted. The class 745s already have two separate interiors in a fleet of 20 units, so it can be done.

So yes a specialised micro fleet of DC/battery bimodes with an airport interior is feasible, as part of a bigger order.

And the more general user bimode units would provide backup in a similar way that Greater Anglia sometimes use class 720s on the Stansted Express.

 

[PedroHav]

The one thing that could improve 'capacity' and passenger comfort is providing more luggage space on the trains. So many people to and from Gatwick have large suitcases with no where to put them apart from on seats or blocking the gangways. This in turn has safety implications. Yes there are some racks in coaches 2 and 3 but you have to know about them before boarding.
As Gatwick passenger numbers continue to increase this is only going to get worse.

 

[NCT]

How long do the oldest 377s have in them?

I know this isn't a universally popular view, but surely future rolling stock shouldn't be beholden to the old 'seats seats and more seats' philosophy. Have more 'multi-purpose' areas that serve as luggage space off-peak and standing area during peaks. Yes - the Thameslink-isation of Southern.

 

[JonathanH]

How long do the oldest 377s have in them?

I know this isn't a universally popular view, but surely future rolling stock shouldn't be beholden to the old 'seats seats and more seats' philosophy. Have more 'multi-purpose' areas that serve as luggage space off-peak and standing area during peaks. Yes - the Thameslink-isation of Southern.

I'd hope they run until about 2040, but something like the interior of a 730/0 with large stand back areas is probably where the South Central network should go next.

 

[markymark2000]

For Gatwick coaches are only 5%, much lower than Luton (21%) or Stansted (18%).

Coach travel looks like a good way to expand the public transport share at Gatwick.

You'll struggle to expand Gatwicks coach usage though I think because of the rail links to so many areas. Previous attempts at new Gatwick routes haven't lasted long, and almost all Gatwick links now rely upon serving both Gatwick and Heathrow to maximise Airport traffic. You'll find it hard to massively increase Gatwicks coach share in my opinion since the South London links have been decimated. Flixbus 066 (linking from Cambridge and London Stratford) has had seemingly limited uptake, and other than that, you are pretty much left with competing with the train, or running via Heathrow and thus losing out there instead.

The difference with Luton and Stansted is that they don't have the best train links, so coaches pick up that slack. Luton has the MML but other than that, links aren't the best. For years you had to get the shuttle bus too which put people off so NatEx and Greenline have the benefits there of terminal - London traffic. It will be interesting to see if the DART has made an impact on that as now it's more convenient to go between the train and terminal (though also more expensive)
Stansted the trains options generally are the hourly Norwich, or the regular Stansted Express to London Liverpool Street. The coaches run to a variety of locations in London rather than just Liverpool Street (interestingly there are 5 coaches per hour linking none stop from Stansted to Stratford, that speaks volumes in my opinion that Stansted has a lot of induced demand because of it's lack of trains, which in turn throws up the demand for coaches).

 

[jayah]

It looks very difficult for Gatwick.

Increasing modal share while the airport also doubles in size is not going to be easy, without making it hostile for road users.

The least difficult way to get modal share is dense urban transport, but Gatwick doesn't have much urban nearby and Horley, Redhil, Reigate, Crawley, Horsham and Haywards Heath are already well served by rail.

Caterham is notably poorly connected. A 45min bus or a 50min train via East Croydon isn't going to tempt many.

Reading to Gatwick needs to be a lot faster and have some longer trains and they need to find a way to weave the Tonbridge stoppers into the airport. Kent is badly connected to everywhere except London, including Kent, but it shouldn't take the best part of two hours from Ashford to Gatwick.

The railway could do with an M25 to join up a lot of places it is currently very difficult to get between in Kent, Surrey and Sussex. But Gatwick is a good way south of those built up areas.

The best option I can see apart from another Crossrail towards Old Oak Common or Heathrow, might be to improve some of the urban transport around Croydon and or the rail service from Purley which is half hourly off peak.

There are a clutch of suburbs like Sutton and Morden which will have high car ownership but have remarkably poor links to Gatwick by public transport, because they are difficult to reach from East Croydon and the Purley service poor.

 

[yorksrob]

Hmm. How about a coastal service from Ramsgate to Gatwick ? It could be semi-fast - Folkestone West - Sandling - Ashford - Headcorn - Staplehurst - Paddock Wood - Tonbridge....

I don't know whether you'd then go semi fast or just all stops replacing the existing stopper. Could also be quite a slick connection to Sussex Coast services.

 

[Tester]

Hmm. How about a coastal service from Ramsgate to Gatwick ? It could be semi-fast - Folkestone West - Sandling - Ashford - Headcorn - Staplehurst - Paddock Wood - Tonbridge....

I don't know whether you'd then go semi fast or just all stops replacing the existing stopper. Could also be quite a slick connection to Sussex Coast services.

Send it via Barnham for the best fares

 

[yorksrob]

Send it via Barnham for the best fares

That would be a bonus - and a fun day out to boot

On a serious note, the route via Edenbridge tends to be the same "not London" fare as the coastal one, so it would likely be good value.

 

[weeklycommuter]

A solution that is already working well on three different railways in this country… why does it not impress? It will be the perfect solution for the North Downs, and will happen.

Dual voltage or third rail plus battery trains would be ideal for the half hourly Reading-Gatwick Airport train service on the North Downs Line. I just wish they would build the trains and start running them.

Hmm. How about a coastal service from Ramsgate to Gatwick ? It could be semi-fast - Folkestone West - Sandling - Ashford - Headcorn - Staplehurst - Paddock Wood - Tonbridge....

I don't know whether you'd then go semi fast or just all stops replacing the existing stopper. Could also be quite a slick connection to Sussex Coast services.

I assume that most rail travel between stations in Kent and Gatwick Airport involves is changing to and from Thameslink train services at London Bridge (most mainline Kent services), Blackfriars, Farringdon (Elizabeth Line) or St Pancras (Kent High Speed services)?

The Tonbridge-Redhill route is also an option for some journeys but the current Tonbridge-Redhill train service is mostly just one an hour each way.

 

[MatthewE707]

A bit off topic, but do Thameslink trains have to stop at Three Bridges?

 

[JonathanH]

A bit off topic, but do Thameslink trains have to stop at Three Bridges?

Finish, or stop? What is the perceived issue of stopping Thameslink trains at Three Bridges?

 

[MatthewE707]

Finish, or stop? What is the perceived issue of stopping Thameslink trains at Three Bridges?

I was just thinking since the depot's there, there might be a reason why every single TL train calls there

 

[weeklycommuter]

A bit off topic, but do Thameslink trains have to stop at Three Bridges?

Yes, not least because it is a very important interchange station being at the junction between the railway to/from Brighton and the railway to/from Horsham, the Arun Valley, West Coastway, Bognor Regis and Portsmouth. It is much easier to change trains at Three Bridges Station than at Gatwick Airport Station.

One of the concerns about the need to increase rail capacity to and from Gatwick Airport is that the passenger rail routes through Gatwick Airport Station are also used by passengers making many other journeys to and from many high footfall stations South of Gatwick Airport, not least journeys to and through London. Passenger train service improvements to and from Gatwick Airport must not be at the expense of worse train services to everywhere else served by these routes.

 

[MatthewE707]

Yes, not least because it is a very important interchange station being at the junction between the railway to/from Brighton and the railway to/from Horsham, the Arun Valley, West Coastway, Bognor Regis and Portsmouth. It is much easier to change trains at Three Bridges Station than at Gatwick Airport Station.

I meant is there an operational reason why TL have to stop at Three Bridges?

 

[weeklycommuter]

I meant is there an operational reason why TL have to stop at Three Bridges?

Thameslink trains change drivers at Three Bridges.

 

[MatthewE707]

Thameslink trains change drivers at Three Bridges.

Ok, thanks

 

[Mgameing123]

Moderator note: Split from

Airport expansions

I am guessing Emirates does so well in the UK because it does very well serving people visiting friends and family in Australia. Lots of ex-pats in the Emirates and to a lesser extent Qatar as well. There’s also quite a few ex-pats who work in Saudi but live in Dubai or Abu Dhabi with their...

www.railforums.co.uk

Looks like GTR will need some more rolling stock if they are to get a 4tph Gatwick Express service back for this (or pull in existing stock off other routes).

No no no! We should just scrap Gatwick Express all together. Capacity would be better used by converting them into Southern services.

 

[Magdalia]

A bit off topic, but do Thameslink trains have to stop at Three Bridges?

Three Bridges is Crawley's main station, with more than twice as many (3052k) entrances and exits than the station called Crawley round the corner on the Horsham line (1287k).