How could rail capacity to Gatwick Airport be increased?

[jon0844]

The only way to increase rail capacity to Gatwick Airport is to make all Southern and Gatwick Express trains on the Brighton Main Line 12 cars like all the Thameslink trains. This would almost certainly require an increase in the amount of rolling stock available for GTR Southern and Gatwick Express services and for GTR to acquire more rolling stock in total. It is probably not possible to greatly increase the total number of train services on the Brighton Main Line but the issue can be solved by operating the existing train services with longer trains with a lot more seats. The focus needs to be on the rolling stock used for these train services.

As has been said elsewhere, when they did run as 12 car before (and even before the 387s came in when they were 10 car?) much of the train was empty anyway because people didn't spread out at Gatwick to board the train, and presumably didn't walk down far enough at Victoria.

Now, I am sure Victoria to Gatwick wasn't quite as bad as people may keep walking when the train is busy, but unless the train is on the platform waiting for some time at Gatwick (so people can do the same thing) then it's just going to be busy nearest to the lifts and escalators.

Gatwick also needs to look at the new services it will offer. Again, as has been mentioned before, there will be flights in clusters depending on the origin of the inbound flight and vice versa. There will effectively be peak times that may not match traditional railway peak times, and that's where the capacity uplift will need to come in. With lots of very early flights for short-haul low cost routes, the peak effectively starts much earlier and there must also be quite a lot of busy trains when those same low cost airlines bring people back after 9pm.

 

[Harpo]

It will pass.

It used to be HSTs, and one day will be some other class of stock.

Or 442s. Which indeed did time on Gatwicks.

 

[Farnborough]

Gatwick also needs to look at the new services it will offer. Again, as has been mentioned before, there will be flights in clusters depending on the origin of the inbound flight and vice versa. There will effectively be peak times that may not match traditional railway peak times, and that's where the capacity uplift will need to come in. With lots of very early flights for short-haul low cost routes, the peak effectively starts much earlier and there must also be quite a lot of busy trains when those same low cost airlines bring people back after 9pm.

This is a valid point... and one where the NDL falls very short.

The first (semi-fast) train from Reading arrives at Gatwick just before 06:00 - and given the stipulation of arriving two hours before departure, is only of use to flights after 08:00
The next five are either semi-fasts or are stoppers that terminate at Redhill

The first through train, stopping at the intermediate stations, arrives at 08:55 - no good for flights before 11:00 - Yes, I can change at Redhill....

 

[Magdalia]

much of the train was empty anyway because people didn't spread out at Gatwick to board the train, and presumably didn't walk down far enough at Victoria.

Now, I am sure Victoria to Gatwick wasn't quite as bad as people may keep walking when the train is busy, but unless the train is on the platform waiting for some time at Gatwick (so people can do the same thing) then it's just going to be busy nearest to the lifts and escalators.

This can be managed through good information, announcements, signage and passenger information screens (PIS). In particular there needs to be repeated reminders for Victoria passengers to go towards the front and East Croydon passengers towards the rear. Furthermore, Thameslink trains coming through from Brighton already have loadings by car information that could be shown on the platform PIS at Gatwick.

There will effectively be peak times that may not match traditional railway peak times, and that's where the capacity uplift will need to come in. With lots of very early flights for short-haul low cost routes, the peak effectively starts much earlier and there must also be quite a lot of busy trains when those same low cost airlines bring people back after 9pm.

These are times when the capacity is already there but, because they are not traditional peak times, it is not especially heavily used.

For example Cambridge has 2tph 12 car trains departing to Brighton 0453-1853 then 1tph to 2153 and arriving from Brighton 0740-2140 then 1tph to 0040.

At these times the railway will be able to absorb extra traffic without needing to do anything.

 

[JonathanH]

The first (semi-fast) train from Reading arrives at Gatwick just before 06:00 - and given the stipulation of arriving two hours before departure, is only of use to flights after 08:00
The next five are either semi-fasts or are stoppers that terminate at Redhill

The last train from the North Downs arrives just after 01:00, so isn't that long a wait for the earliest flights.

 

[Farnborough]

The first (semi-fast) train from Reading ...
The first through train, stopping at the intermediate stations ...

The irony of course is that the hourly "semi-fast" takes *exactly the same time* end-to-end as the stopping service - the semi-fast has a longer hold in Guildford

So they could make it 2tph stopper, and not impact journey times - but be a significant improvement (1tph-->2tph) for those of us at the intermediate-stations

 

[JonathanH]

The irony of course is that the hourly "semi-fast" takes *exactly the same time* end-to-end as the stopping service - the semi-fast has a longer hold in Guildford

So they could make it 2tph stopper, and not impact journey times - but be a significant improvement (1tph-->2tph) for those of us at the intermediate-stations

Isn't the point that the 'semi-fast' does the local stops on the other side of Guildford?

The pattern is that all trains do Wokingham, Blackwater, North Camp, Guildford, Dorking Deepdene, Reigate and Redhill.

Then on one side of the hour there are hourly calls at Crowthorne, Sandhurst, Farnborough North and Ash.

On the other side of the hour there are hourly calls at Shalford and then alternate calls every two hours at Chilworth and Gomshall or Dorking West and Betchworth.

In the morning peak, the only way of running an actual stopper is terminating it at Redhill rather than running through to Gatwick.

 

[Ted633]

As has been said elsewhere, when they did run as 12 car before (and even before the 387s came in when they were 10 car?) much of the train was empty anyway because people didn't spread out at Gatwick to board the train, and presumably didn't walk down far enough at Victoria.

Now, I am sure Victoria to Gatwick wasn't quite as bad as people may keep walking when the train is busy, but unless the train is on the platform waiting for some time at Gatwick (so people can do the same thing) then it's just going to be busy nearest to the lifts and escalators.

Gatwick has been remodelled since the days of 12 cars. There are now 3 places to access platforms 5/6, instead of 2 (of which one was very small & out of the way). People are now spread out along the platform a lot more.

 

[Sussex Ben]

Gatwick has been remodelled since the days of 12 cars. There are now 3 places to access platforms 5/6, instead of 2 (of which one was very small & out of the way). People are now spread out along the platform a lot more.

Platform 4 (used by about half of fast line services towards London) can still be an issue, especially at peak times. A second access point was added during the remodelling, however this pushes people more towards the London end of the platform which means they are trying to board the busiest part of trains up from the coast. Further access to the platform at the country end should be considered to help spread people out more effectively.

 

[Verulamius]

From where and when is the increase in capacity needed?

Is there likely to be increased demand from the North Downs line at a particular time which the current service can not provide?

Is the demand expected from London Victoria, or Thameslink?

Is the demand from intermediate stations to London, or from central London?

 

[al78]

What i would then do is change all of the London Victoria to Bognor Regis / Brighton / Chichester / Eastbourne / Hastings / Littlehampton / Ore / Portsmouth And Southsea / Portsmouth Harbour / Southampton Central / Worthing services to run non stop between London Victoria and Gatwick Airport and vice versa. This would instantly increase Gatwick Express from 2tph to 8tph without having to change the timetable.

It would also benefit non airport passengers as the trains would be quieter and no longer get filled up at East Croydon and Clapham Junction with local London passengers. One of the major problems with these Sussex trains is that they can get full and standing at East Croydon and Clapham Junction just with local London passengers.

When I travel from Farringdon to Horsham, I often change at East Croydon to get on the Bognor bound service to get to Horsham, as doing that is significantly faster that taking the direct Thameslink train that stops almost everywhere. It is possible for me to start on the Brighton service and change at Three Bridges, but that involves a very tight connection time with no slack, combined with a platform change involving the subway (with the issue of getting behind very slow people and those gawping at their phones), whereas changing at East Croydon sometimes involves no platform change and it is much easier to put a bit of padding in the connection time.

In my experience, the Bognor train(s) I catch at East Croydon are already pretty rammed when they pull into East Croydon, people joining there doesn't make that much difference. The reason why it is rammed is primarily Horsham commuters. When I get off at Horsham, there are still a lot of people on the train although it is possible to find a seat, and the majority of the passengers disembark as well, then we all have to form an orderly queue at the stairs to leave the platform because Horshamites have this irresistable urge to be slow. If you want to free up capacity, destroy Horsham, which would remove a ton of demand .

 

[weeklycommuter]

In my experience, the Bognor train(s) I catch at East Croydon are already pretty rammed when they pull into East Croydon, people joining there doesn't make that much difference. The reason why it is rammed is primarily Horsham commuters. When I get off at Horsham, there are still a lot of people on the train although it is possible to find a seat, and the majority of the passengers disembark as well, then we all have to form an orderly queue at the stairs to leave the platform because Horshamites have this irresistable urge to be slow. If you want to free up capacity, destroy Horsham, which would remove a ton of demand .

I have suggested that when all the new Arterios are in service the SWR London Waterloo to Dorking service should be extended to Horsham to provide an alternative high capacity train service between Horsham and London. This would take some of the passengers who currently travel between Horsham and London on the Portsmouth/Bognor to London Victoria trains.

 

[cle]

Further access to the platform at the country end should be considered to help spread people out more effectively.

This will always be an eternal problem. At least many from Brighton (and other coastal termini) may bunch at the back, especially if running late! And of course, the back fills from East Croydon - which needs the capacity there frankly! So I think it's ok.

I have suggested that when all the new Arterios are in service the SWR London Waterloo to Dorking service should be extended to Horsham to provide an alternative high capacity train service between Horsham and London. This would take some of the passengers who currently travel between Horsham and London on the Portsmouth/Bognor to London Victoria trains.

I agree with this, especially if there was a fast pattern. It should swap with the Victoria service as the one beyond Dorking. I don't believe much interworking takes place, and I could see Horsham-Waterloo being a popular alternative route, also offering Wimbledon connections.

I wonder if anything in the peaks could squeeze in to run fast Epsom-Wimbledon (itself probably a useful fast flow). Brings Vauxhall too.

 

[321362]

Is there a RailUKForums equivalent to Godwin's Law, whereby raising the topic of the 350/2s (other than within the dedicated thread) triggers a forfeit?

[like-button-here]

 

[jon0844]

Gatwick has been remodelled since the days of 12 cars. There are now 3 places to access platforms 5/6, instead of 2 (of which one was very small & out of the way). People are now spread out along the platform a lot more.

I still rarely see people using the country end of the platforms, possibly because they're exposed to the elements. That's where you'll find me for any approaching 700s to London to go into the declassified first class which obviously tourists don't know about!

 

[Ted633]

I still rarely see people using the country end of the platforms, possibly because they're exposed to the elements. That's where you'll find me for any approaching 700s to London to go into the declassified first class which obviously tourists don't know about!

You do see a fair few on the 5/6 island because of the access. But yes, for the 700’s from P4 you see very few people at the country end. It’s a shame that the remodel didn’t put an additional access at that end like 5/6/7 have.

 

[cle]

Given also that certain places might want 'the back' (e.g. Blackfriars South Bank exit, or Ludgate Hill at City) - of Thameslink services, Farringdon CR too - you'd think there might be more of a spread. Less so for Victoria services of course, or LB terminators.

 

[Farnborough]

Is there likely to be increased demand from the North Downs line at a particular time which the current service can not provide?

In other threads, on other routes, people bemoan 4tph as inadequate - yet seemingly we're expected to be happy with 1tph (and watch another 1tph zoom past) during the day

Perhaps if we had a more frequent (and more reliable - see other thread) service, perhaps people would use it more. I've reverted to using my car for journeys to Reading, Wokingham, Guildford and Gatwick as I can guarantee getting there...

 

[Magdalia]

In other threads, on other routes, people bemoan 4tph as inadequate - yet seemingly we're expected to be happy with 1tph (and watch another 1tph zoom past) during the day

4tph is talked about for routes with huge traffic flows (mainly to/from London) and the North Downs Line does not have that. Reading-Gatwick is 56k one way journeys, Guildford-Gatwick 50k, North Camp-Gatwick 17k and Wokingham-Gatwick 15k. The Gatwick flows from both Farnborough stations combined are less than 5k.

Compare these with Cambridge-Stansted 201k, Peterborough-Stansted 45k, Norwich-Stansted 42k and Ely-Stansted 18k. Peterborough and Norwich only get 1tph to Stansted, even though they also have much bigger flows to Cambridge (79k and 76k respectively) on the same trains.

Peterborough-Cambridge-Stansted and Norwich-Cambridge-Stansted would look very enviously at your 2tph Reading-Guildford-Gatwick.

Any increase in traffic on the North Downs line from Gatwick expansion is likely to be met by longer trains, not more trains and more infrastructure. Even if those North Downs traffic flows increased by 50% they are still not vey big.

 

[JonathanH]

Any increase in traffic on the North Downs line from Gatwick expansion is likely to be met by longer trains, not more trains and more infrastructure. Even if those North Downs traffic flows increased by 50% they are still not vey big.

I think the previous poster is only really questioning why Blackwater and North Camp get 2tph calls and Farnborough North doesn't. Historically, North Camp has been the primary stop between Wokingham and Guildford, then Blackwater for the last 30 years since Turbos were introduced. Farnborough North isn't well situated and has only been served by stoppers.

I agree with you that even Gatwick expansion doesn't warrant more trains on the North Downs. I also note that anything longer than 80m train length is unlikely.

 

[Jim Jehosofat]

Surely the answer to the North Downs rolling stock problem is a third rail Flirt, just like Greater Anglia but with pick up shoes instead of a pantograph. Or am I missing something?

 

[JonathanH]

Surely the answer to the North Downs rolling stock problem is a third rail Flirt, just like Greater Anglia but with pick up shoes instead of a pantograph. Or am I missing something?

Other types of rolling stock are available. What provides the best capacity for Gatwick passengers, and the other users?

 

[geoffk]

A colleague writes "Travelling to Gatwick earlier this year, it was frustrating being crammed into Southern trains like sardines while Gatwick Expresses sailed past nearly empty. They need to be fully integrated in terms of fares, and ideally the GE needs to stop at CLJ as well". This is the Railfuture view as quoted in #26. We both live in Devon and aren't regular users of the Brighton line so I don't know how accurate "nearly empty" is.

 

[WAO]

4tph is talked about for routes with huge traffic flows (mainly to/from London) and the North Downs Line does not have that. Reading-Gatwick is 56k one way journeys, Guildford-Gatwick 50k, North Camp-Gatwick 17k and Wokingham-Gatwick 15k. The Gatwick flows from both Farnborough stations combined are less than 5k.

Compare these with Cambridge-Stansted 201k, Peterborough-Stansted 45k, Norwich-Stansted 42k and Ely-Stansted 18k. Peterborough and Norwich only get 1tph to Stansted, even though they also have much bigger flows to Cambridge (79k and 76k respectively) on the same trains.

Peterborough-Cambridge-Stansted and Norwich-Cambridge-Stansted would look very enviously at your 2tph Reading-Guildford-Gatwick.

Any increase in traffic on the North Downs line from Gatwick expansion is likely to be met by longer trains, not more trains and more infrastructure. Even if those North Downs traffic flows increased by 50% they are still not vey big.

I would argue that the NDL services deter passengers through capacity and reliability factors. In an area where an 8 car EMU every 30 minutes is the norm, a wheezing GWR rural rambler, often packed with schoolchildren or not turning up at all, is not a credible start to an international flight. The wizard solution of battery drives does not impress. From Reading etc, the real Gatwick options are: booked taxi or (SR) trains via Clapham Junction (fairly long but a lower, not-via-London fare, on reliable, spacious modern trains). The London-centric investment bias and the ORR anti -third rail hysteria mean that the tadpole mentality will continue to triumph on the NDL.

WAO

 

[Magdalia]

In an area where an 8 car EMU every 30 minutes is the norm

It s the norm for services to and from London. It would be possible to say the same about Cambridge, which has 8/12 car EMUs to/from London but 3 and 4 car trains to Stansted Airport, Peterborough, Norwich and Ipswich. The length of the train needs to match the usage, and the Reading-Gatwick numbers are 3-4 car numbers not 8-12 car numbers.

Surely the answer to the North Downs rolling stock problem is a third rail Flirt, just like Greater Anglia but with pick up shoes instead of a pantograph. Or am I missing something?

The Greater Anglia Flirts work the Norwich-Stansted service, and I'd like to see them on a Stansted-Peterborough service too, instead of the Birmingham 3 car DMUs. A third rail version would be well suited to Reading-Gatwick.

 

[Mikey C]

The Gatwick Excess/Southern split is an obvious nonsense that should be quickly dumped, but then I suspect these days the Thameslink route to London is just as popular, if not more so.

But as a wider point, it would be interesting to see the detailed data as to how people get to the airport now, as I imagine that coming from London the public transport percentage is already very high anyway. It's the journeys from across the wider Southeast which are less convenient by train, and the harder to change.

 

[The exile]

The last train from the North Downs arrives just after 01:00, so isn't that long a wait for the earliest flights.

Did that move once off the last up Bristol (ex-Penzance). About 30 late at Reading so taxis being laid on for here there and everywhere (including three passengers for Gatwick). Unfortunately, the other two had what was now a tight connection so what I’d hoped would be a long snooze in a warm taxi became a helter-skelter defiance of every speed limit!

 

[Magdalia]

But as a wider point, it would be interesting to see the detailed data as to how people get to the airport now, as I imagine that coming from London the public transport percentage is already very high anyway.

I have found some Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) numbers for 2023.

Gatwick has 39% of passengers arriving by rail, by far the highest of the 8 airports surveyed (5 London airports plus Birmingham, Manchester and East Midlands). Total passengers are 36 million so that implies about 14 million arrivals/departures by rail.

The ORR entries and exits data for Gatwick Airport in 2023/24 was 19.5 million, but that will also include people going to see off departures, greet arrivals, and workers.

The available data giving breakdown of station pairs is one way not two way so these (in thousands) are of a total of nearly 10 million not nearly 20 million:

2703 Victoria
1019 London Bridge
830 East Croydon
496 Clapham Junction
489 Blackfriars
336 Brighton
267 Farringdon
235 St Pancras
127 Three Bridges
94 Haywards Heath

Total Thameslink Core is just over 2 million, Victoria+Clapham Junction is 3.2 million, and together these are over half the total.

It's the journeys from across the wider Southeast which are less convenient by train, and the harder to change.

Modal shift, and attracting the new traffic, in the wider South East, isn't what's going to get the rail share at Gatwick higher. It is going to be making sure that more of the existing and new Gatwick-London flows are on the train.

 

[Brubulus]

I have found some Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) numbers for 2023.

Gatwick has 39% of passengers arriving by rail, by far the highest of the 8 airports surveyed (5 London airports plus Birmingham, Manchester and East Midlands). Total passengers are 36 million so that implies about 14 million arrivals/departures by rail.

The ORR entries and exits data for Gatwick Airport in 2023/24 was 19.5 million, but that will also include people going to see off departures, greet arrivals, and workers.

The available data giving breakdown of station pairs is one way not two way so these (in thousands) are of a total of nearly 10 million not nearly 20 million:

2703 Victoria
1019 London Bridge
830 East Croydon
496 Clapham Junction
489 Blackfriars
336 Brighton
267 Farringdon
235 St Pancras
127 Three Bridges
94 Haywards Heath

Total Thameslink Core is just over 2 million, Victoria+Clapham Junction is 3.2 million, and together these are over half the total.



Modal shift, and attracting the new traffic, in the wider South East, isn't what's going to get the rail share at Gatwick higher. It is going to be making sure that more of the existing and new Gatwick-London flows are on the train.

What is rail's modal share between London and Gatwick? Most of the rest is likely coaches, which are also public transport. Sadly it is SE traffic which needs to get onto rail if Gatwick is to meet it's targets.

 

[Mikey C]

Modal shift, and attracting the new traffic, in the wider South East, isn't what's going to get the rail share at Gatwick higher. It is going to be making sure that more of the existing and new Gatwick-London flows are on the train.

But rail is highly likely to already have a massive percentage of the London/Croydon to Gatwick market. Especially with Thameslink connecting to the Liz Line and so many of the London terminus stations.

It's the disparate journeys across the southeast that are harder to convert, but they add up to a lot of passengers, as Gatwick is the favoured airport for most of Kent, Sussex etc