Holborn & St Pancras By-Election

[SargeNpton]

Now that the deadline for nominations has closed, there will be 15 candidates on the voting papers for the Holborn & St Pancras By-Election (source: https://www.pollcheck.co.uk/by-elections/holborn-and-st-pancras).

In alphabetical order by party, they are:

Christian Peoples Alliance: Helen Spiby-Vann

Climate Party: Clare Fischer

Conservative: Ewan Cameron

Communist League: Jonathan Silberman

Green: Zack Polanski

Independent: Tom Darwood

Labour: Sagal Abdi-Wali

Liberal Democrats: Patrick Thomas Stillman

Monster Raving Loony: Barmy Brunch

Rejoin EU: Briony Anne Lonbay Kapoor

Reform UK: Peter Newman

Restore Britain: Tyler Kurtis Johnson

UK VOICE: Ketankumar Pipaliya

UKIP: Ben Walker

Workers Party: George Galloway

I see a lot of minor parties splitting the vote on both the left and the right.

Yet again, there is an absence of a candidate from the Your Party. For all their promises to break the mould of British politics, they are keeping very quiet at the moment. Perhaps they are still more focused on attacking each other within the party.

 

[GusB]

No Binface this time?

Never mind - Galloway is on the list, he's rubbish enough

 

[pokemonsuper9]

No Binface this time?

No, he uploaded a video shortly after the by-election was announced saying he doesn't intend to stand, and is expecting his next by-election to be Clacton (but again).

 

[brad465]

Galloway is going to be more of a threat to the Greens than Labour in this.

 

[contrex]

No Binface this time?

Never mind - Galloway is on the list, he's rubbish enough

I like him, but I don't agree with all his policies.

 

[Purple Train]

Galloway is going to be more of a threat to the Greens than Labour in this.

And I thought he'd flounced off to Russia and we'd finally seen the last of him. Oh well. At least with Polanski standing he has little to no chance of winning, although he could split the vote in interesting ways.

 

[styles]

I think even with how Labour have been doing in the national polls, it'll take a bit to topple the 30 point majority Starmer had.

 

[Trackman]

I think even with how Labour have been doing in the national polls, it'll take a bit to topple the 30 point majority Starmer had.

Knowing the constituency, it's rock solid labour.

 

[brad465]

Labour are now 1/25-1/50 to win this Thursday, with Greens drifting to 12/1. Almost certainly down to the "Zionism is racism" saga.

 

[pr1]

And I thought he'd flounced off to Russia and we'd finally seen the last of him. Oh well. At least with Polanski standing he has little to no chance of winning, although he could split the vote in interesting ways.

Galloway has flounced off.....to South Africa....

Prolific social media feeds show that the veteran leftwinger has spent the past few weeks on a speaking tour in South Africa, with his most recent public appearance on Saturday at a pro-Palestine rally in Cape Town

... or maybe China.....

though posts in the last 24 hours suggest he is in Shanghai, China

...Though Russia is never that far behind.....

In Galloway’s March interview with R[ussia]T[oday], where he had hosted a talkshow for nine years until Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, he said he was “now in exile in the east, and I must say that Moscow in the spring is quite the place to be”.

All quotes taken from: https://www.theguardian.com/politic...galloway-london-byelection-holborn-st-pancras

 

[jon0844]

He should run for Reform if he has no intention of going anywhere near his constituency. He's even outdoing Farage!

 

[BAFRA77]

Full Result:

Sagal Abdi-Wali (Lab) 12,292 (45.17%, -3.75%)

Zack Polanski (Green) 8,928 (32.81%, +22.37%)

Ewan Cameron (C) 1,922 (7.06%, -0.13%)

Peter Newman (Reform) 1,612 (5.92%, -0.22%)

Patrick Stillman (LD) 924 (3.40%, -2.40%)

Tyler Johnson (Restore) 692 (2.54%)

George Galloway (WPB) 314 (1.15%)

Briony Kapoor (Rejoin) 236 (0.87%)

Barmy Brunch (Loony) 87 (0.32%, -0.10%)

Helen Spiby-Vann (CPA) 63 (0.23%)

Clare Fischer (Climate) 51 (0.19%)

Ben Walker (UKIP) 51 (0.19%, -0.01%)

Ketankumar Pipaliya (Voice) 23 (0.08%)

Jonathan Silberman (Comm Lge) 9 (0.03%)

Tom Darwood (ND) 7 (0.03%, -18.92%)

Lab maj 3,364 (12.36%)

13.06% swing Lab to Green

Electorate 70,449; Turnout 27,211 (38.63%, -15.52%)

 

[jfollows]

Conservatives coming third will be seen as a triumph by them.

 

[Farang]

Just 314 votes for George Galloway. That's brightened my morning.

 

[PGAT]

Just 314 votes for George Galloway. That's brightened my morning.

That might be the worst election he’s stood in?

 

[cb a1]

I've not seen the newspaper headlines, but I'd posit something like:
Terrible night for Labour and Greens and great result for Conservatives.
Labour lost 4 percentage points and falling to under half the vote in former PM's constituency which previously saw over 70% of votes for Labour.
The Green Party, hoping to secure a seat for their beleaguered leader, crashed out following their turn to antisemitism, losing to Labour by over three thousand votes.
Meanwhile the Conservatives are seeing the Badenoch bounce with a magnificent finish in 3rd place.

 

[WelshBluebird]

Despite the media and people in this thread wanting to paint it differently, the greens went from 10% to 33% of the vote - more than tripling their vote share and going from distance third to really not that far behind Labour. This was an incredibly safe Labour Seat beforehand that now isn't as safe clearly. I don't see why that is being seen as such a disaster for the Greens. Given how safe a Labour seat it was I don't think there was any realistic chance of them winning it (even before all of the noise of the last few weeks Labour were ahead in the polls there).

 

[SuspectUsual]

Meanwhile the Conservatives are seeing the Badenoch bounce with a magnificent finish in 3rd place.

I'm not sure what sort of a bounce a -0.13% change in vote share represents

(Or was your post sarcastic, I really can't tell)

 

[AlterEgo]

That might be the worst election he’s stood in?

The worst Westminster one yes.

Despite the media and people in this thread wanting to paint it differently, the greens went from 10% to 33% of the vote - more than tripling their vote share and going from distance third to really not that far behind Labour. This was an incredibly safe Labour Seat beforehand that now isn't as safe clearly. I don't see why that is being seen as such a disaster for the Greens. Given how safe a Labour seat it was I don't think there was any realistic chance of them winning it (even before all of the noise of the last few weeks Labour were ahead in the polls there).

The issue is they stood their leader and definitely tried to win the seat. The Greens continuing to have a leader who doesn't have a Westminster seat will produce a bit of drag on their relevance.

 

[Purple Train]

Despite the media and people in this thread wanting to paint it differently, the greens went from 10% to 33% of the vote - more than tripling their vote share and going from distance third to really not that far behind Labour. This was an incredibly safe Labour Seat beforehand that now isn't as safe clearly. I don't see why that is being seen as such a disaster for the Greens. Given how safe a Labour seat it was I don't think there was any realistic chance of them winning it (even before all of the noise of the last few weeks Labour were ahead in the polls there).

I don't think it's a total disaster, but I think that the fact that they stood Polanski and clearly campaigned in the belief that they could win will leave things looking less rosy for them. Plus, a huge chunk of the vote in 2024 went to an independent, who endorsed Polanski. If you add the vote shares received by him and the Greens in 2024, you get 29.3%, or 3.5% less than Polanski achieved here, and almost exactly the same as the drop in the Labour vote. So, in effect, the Greens have achieved a 3.6% swing against Labour in one of their target seats, standing their leader in his home constituency and heartland, against a party whose leader made little input in the by-election and whose heartland it really isn't. So it's not a disaster, but I think it will be hugely disappointing for the Greens even if you ignore the part that they're having a good old factional spat in the traditional manner.

 

[jfollows]

The Green party misrepresented their position by stating correctly that their vote share trebled, correct on the numbers, but only because Andrew Feinstein as an independent won 18.9% of the vote in the General Election. Feinstein did not stand yesterday but supported the Greens instead. if you include his vote in the tally, the Greens increased their vote share by 3.5%
From https://kellnerp.substack.com/p/the-figures-that-make-sagal-abdi:

Of course all the parties make these claims: https://kellnerp.substack.com/p/our-politicians-should-stop-paltering

“That doesn’t mean, of course, that the pound here in Britain, in your pocket or purse or in your bank, has been devalued” (Harold Wilson, 1967)

“Today a Conservative government brings down taxes” (Jeremy Hunt, 2024)

“As the economy improves, we want to ensure that more pensioners are eligible for winter fuel payments” (Keir Starmer, 2025)

“This Labour government is making record cash investment in our national health service, increasing real-terms, day-to-day spending by 3% per year for every single year of this spending review“ (Rachel Reeves, 2025)

 

[Harpo]

The Greens continuing to have a leader who doesn't have a Westminster seat will produce a bit of drag on their relevance.

The biggest drag on the Green’s relevance currently is a self-inflicted one.